In this Magic Millions 3YO Guineas Runner-By-Runner Guide, we sort the pretenders from the contenders and tell you who is the best chance to win the big one!
On Saturday, we get to see what truly is one of the greatest dart board races of all time, as on paper about 80% of this field could really take it out with no surprises. So, it has been extremely difficult to ween out the contenders and had to be hyper-critical to write a horse off, but I have given it my best shot!
1: Tijuana
Tijuana comes into this one first-up after a very successful Spring, which included a narrow 5th in the Caulfield Guineas. That form alone is enough to have him on top if you are thinking of betting on him. Is undefeated on dry decks and loves this distance, so he will certainly be one of the main players.
2: Fashion Legend
Is going for 4 wins on the trot and should be respected as such. However, he is parked all the way out in the 18th barrier, which will make it tough for him, as he is a horse that usually likes to park on the leader’s heels. With the speed drawn inside him, he’ll have to use a lot of petrol to get there. Not the worst chance, but I am happy to watch it go around.
3: Kings Consort
Being in the 2nd barrier will be make or break for this horse. This victorian raider can either get the suck run behind the speed or he’ll get shuffled all the way to the back. Potential rough claims, but more of a place hope than a win.
4: Yellow brick
The favourite for this race and he earned it, as he has won his last 4 races, including a strong win in the King of The Mountain, where he beat much older horses and looked prime to become the next big star of QLD racing. Will park himself on the speed and prove very hard to get past.
5: Spiritualised
Won’t get the same luck as Yellow Brick as he is jumping from the 16th barrier, because of this, he will need a very clean jump in order to get to the front and park himself 2 wide next to Yellow Brick. Would prefer him to be around the $12-$15 mark, but he is a serious chance.
6: Soothsayer
Absolutely flying and would have claims if he wasn’t meeting Yellow Brick yet again. they’ve gone head to head twice and Yellow Brick has beaten him comfortably both times. Plus the 19th barrier rules him out for me.
7: Hell i Am
Good win first up in the Wyong Magic Millions to help him qualify for this race. he then went to the Gosford Guineas where he started as a short favourite and went down by a small amount. Jamie Kah hops on board and will give him the best chance possible. From the 11th barrier he’ll need to be quite handy to ensure he isn’t trapped in traffic, but he has the turn of foot to be a major player come the final stretch.
8: Mishani Warfare
He got smashed in a Benchmark 68 race, so how does he win this?
9: Cusack
I find it very weird that he is in this field when there is a handful of serious contenders who missed out. Got smashed by 8 lengths in a BM 64 race. Not a chance.
10: Green Shadows
His inclusion in the field comes out of left field and at the last moment, having run just last week at Rosehill. But I do love the week back up and back onto the dry deck. He has been running against horses older and tougher than this lot and he can give them a shake at the double-figure price tag.
11: Northern Express
Look, he isn’t the worst option, but considering Yellow brick beat him by almost 5 lengths last start, it is tough to imagine him turning the tables.
12: Stroll
She has some decent form around her with a prep full of smart runs, including a tough win at the 1200m mark. But now she has to run out an extra 200m and her last start didn’t quite convince me that she could at this level. Might prove me wrong, but I am happy to leave her out of my selections.
13: Tyresa
Smart horse on its day, but I don’t think running her in the Wave was the right move here, as 1800m back to 1400m in such a short backup of 7 days will be tough to deal with, especially in this class. Plus, she couldn’t beat Soothsayer home, which convinces me that she has little chance of winning here.
14: russian Conquest
Here is a girl with an interesting career. Kicks off her 2YO career in spectacular fashion with an unbeaten run of 2/2. She then heads to the 2YO classic last year and goes down narrowly to Coolangatta, we all think she’ll go on with it, but then runs into a saturated Sydney Autumn, when she is an out-and-out dry tracker. She gets that dry track here, JMac on board, a perfect barrier and has that all-important Coolangatta form, she is one of the main dangers.
15: Latakia
Everything apart from the fact she couldn’t beat Soothsayer reads really well for this Gollan-trained girl. Drawn in barrier 3 and has Timmy Clark on board so you know she is going straight to the front and will be there for a while, the only question will be if she can handle the pressure. Genuine knockout hope.
16: Shalailed (E)
Shocking that he missed a start in the first place, but if he gains a start, he is in it up to his neck, the only emergency I could entertain betting on because his price would drop significantly if he were to race. 2 strong runs this prep without winning, but the 20th barrier is a concern, but he has the speed to work towards the front and find cover. Genuine betting prospect if he gains a start.
17: Wealthy Investor (E)
Sydney horse that can’t even get a win in a midweek BM72 race, won’t be winning a G1, even if he makes the field.
18: Mishani Persuasion (E)
Criminal that he even made the field, even if it is an emergency.
19: West of Africa (E)
One of the few I am talking about that should be in the field rather than others. If he somehow made the final field, he could run a cheeky race.
20: Hellavadancer (E)
Not a chance of making the field and wouldn’t win anyways.
verdict
I am going to have to side with Hell I Am here. Ready to peak 3rd up and with Jamie Kah on board from that middle barrier, with a clean jump he can get forward and park himself on the tail of the spread and get a cushy run with some cover. He has the turn of foot to put them away in the final stages and I cannot ignore the price tag of double-figure odds. Each Way all day. Russian Conquest is a very narrow second selection, however.
Top 4 Selections: Hell I Am, Russian Conquest, Green Shadows, Yellow Brick
$50 Betting Strategy: $15 Each Way on Hell I Am, $20 Win on Russian Conquest