One of the many questions we get asked is – Why is weight an important form factor for racing? Well, let’s try and unpack it in this edition of Punter Education.
How is a horse’s weight determined?
A horse’s handicap rating is a number used to determine the weight it will carry in its next race. This rating is not determined by a machine, but by a member of the handicapping department who will watch the horse race and decide if the rating should change.
Winning a maiden race will usually earn a horse a rating between 58 and 64, depending on how strong of a win it was. In comparison, winning a Group 1/ feature race may result in a rating between 100 and 110 or higher.
Winning a regular Saturday metro race will usually result in a rating increase of six points, which is why you will see horses ‘rise through the grades’ such as winning a BM78 one week and then their next start will be in a BM84, etc. However, if a horse is beaten at its next two starts after winning a race, its rating will likely decrease and it will drop back down in grades.
Factors such as the weight carried, opposition beaten, and previous rating will also affect a horse’s rating. These ratings are important because they determine a horse’s weight in most handicap races and ballot order in set-weight and weight-for-age races.
The Kinds of Races and how weight affects them
Handicap Races
Benchmark Races
A Benchmark race is a type of handicap race that is based on ratings and is open to all eligible horses. The Benchmark rating of a race sets the standard for determining the weight that horses will carry in relation to their individual ratings and any applicable handicapping conditions in the specific state.
Typically, for each rating point above or below the Benchmark rating, a horse’s allocated weight will be adjusted by 0.5kg. For example, in Victoria, a BM70 race would see a horse rated 70 carrying the minimum top weight of 60kg (minimum top weights vary across Australia). A horse rated 74 would be assigned a weight of 62kg, while a horse rated 67 would carry 58.5kg. Depending on the conditions of the race, additional weight allowances may apply based on the age and sex of a horse, such as a 2kg allowance for fillies or mares racing against males in open class or the apprentice weight claim (more on that later).
Listed, Feature and Group Handicaps
All of the above applies to these special races as well. However, these will be ‘Open’ class races where, realistically, any horse can nominate, but the higher the rating, the higher your chance to get a run. Some different races work on ballots and ballot orders where prize money and wins in certain races determine the order of entry. An example of a Group 1, Handicap is the Newmarket Handicap, a 1200M sprint traditionally held at Flemington in the Autumn Carnival. The highest-rated horse in this race will typically carry the largest weight. In the 2021 edition, Masked Crusader was top weight of 57kg with a rating of 114, while Finance Tycoon was bottom weight of 50.5kg with a rating of 96.
Set Weights
A race where all horses competing carry the exact same weight subject to a sex allowance for fillies and mares. For example, the Golden Slipper is a Set Weight contest where all male horses will carry 56.5kg and the female horses will carry 54.5kg. This is done to ensure equity across the field and to make sure the best horse on the day wins.
Weight For Age
A race in which all horses will carry a set weight according to the Standard Weight for Age Scale. This weight scale varies depending on the horse’s age, sex and the distance of the race. This ensures that younger horses, who aren’t as physically mature as the older horses can have a fair chance. The younger you are, the less weight a horse will carry, the further the race, they will carry even less weight. For example, the Cox Plate is a Weight For Age race, which is why Anamoe was able to carry 49.5kg in the 2021 edition, as he was a 3 Year-Old and then carry 57kg in the 2022 edition as a 4-year-old. This was all because his weight For Age scale had changed.
The Apprentice Claim
The only other major factor to look at when thinking of weight in a race is the factor of the apprentice jockey and the weight claim that they get. In metropolitan class racing an apprentice jockey will have a 4kg claim until they get 5 Metro wins, a 3kg claim until they get 20 Metro wins 2kg claim until they get 50 wins, and then he will have a 1.5kg claim until 80 wins and after that, they have to ride at full weight, just like the rest of the full-time jockeys. So if you see an (A2) on a form guide next to a jockey’s name, it means they are an apprentice and they have a 2kg weight claim. The same goes for (A4), (A3) and (A1.5). This means their horse will run at 2kg less than their listed weight – if they are listed at 61kg but have a jockey weight claim of 2kg, they will actually ride at 59kg. This is something that is important to note as it can have huge differences in the amount of weight a horse carries, especially if the horse is already the bottom weight.
How Does Weight Affect a horse’s winning chances?
When evaluating a horse’s potential to win a race, it’s important to consider not only its past performance record but also its ability to carry weight. Some horses are able to win with large weights, while others may only be successful within a specific weight range.
Higher-quality horses are typically better equipped to carry heavy loads, but this can also depend on factors such as the horse’s current physical condition, the distance of the race, and the condition of the track. Additionally, a horse’s ability to carry weight may be affected by the weather, with rain making it more difficult for the horse to perform at its best.
This will factor in your decision-making, as quite often, a better horse will lose due to the fact that they are lugging more weight than the horse that eventually beats them. You will often see horses with 54kg on their back fly past those who are carrying 61kg. Why? Well, wouldn’t you find it harder to beat someone in a race when you were carrying a backpack that had an extra 7kg of weight in it than your opponent?
Thus, when a horse’s weight increases, its chances of winning decrease. This is why weight is an all-important form factor that MUST be taken into account for any serious punter.
Join us next time on Punter Education where we continue to look at all the different aspects of Punting that you need to know to get ahead in the great game! If you have any questions drop them in the comments and we’ll make sure to get back to you!