This week the races finally return to Randwick after a couple of weeks out west at Rosehill and the listed Carrington Stakes takes centre stage.
Track Report: The rain has been spotty in Sydney, but the track has held up completely and should be a Soft 5 or Soft 6 at worst and a Good 4 at best. The rail is out four metres for the entire circuit so the leaders could have a day out, especially if the rail is hot.
Race 1 – 1000M Petaluma Hcp
The 2YO race of the card and as always they are extremely hard to pick but I am happy to be with the favourite Coincide here. The form should hold up around Barber you’d think here. Plus the race fitness of already running in the likes of a Golden Gift should set him in good steed. Should jump, go straight to the front and prove very hard to get past.
Don Corleone has some very impressive trials that will have prepared him for his debut. His first trial I was there live and he was quite impressive so it surprises me that it’s taken this long to debut. He can certainly start with a win.
High King is another horse I was there for in the debut trial and he honestly ran quite nicely. His trials since have been so-so, but it wouldn’t shock me at all if he gets up at huge odds here.
Rockabilly Rebel has put in 3 very respectable trials and should not be taken lightly, especially with the form around Steel City.
Selections: 1-3-13-5
Suggested Bet: Coincide Win
Race 2 – 1600M Midway (Bm72)
Dr Evil is the one that I am all over for this one. I have backed him many times before and he has been a slight money guzzler, but he is always consistently a few lengths off the finish. He drops back to Midway grade now and gets JMac on board, as long as he doesn’t get shuffled all the way to the back he is in it up to his neck.
Of course favourite, Crafty Eagle is a good shout, but less than $3 is very dangerous odds for the midway. He’ll certainly be strong late, as he has been in his 3 starts to date this pre, but I am not sure if the form will really hold up here, but you wouldn’t leave it out of your exotics.
Dimaggio and Lovetheinvasion round out the exotics as knockout chances.
Selections: 3-9-2-8
Suggested Bet: Dr Evil Each Way
Race 3 – 1100M Tab Highway (C2)
Gallant Star has some really nice 2YO form and now comes here as a 3YO with runs behind the likes of Midnight In Tokyo and Troach and that race produced 6 subsequent winners so I am happy to try and be on the 7th. Should get a soft lead and prove very hard to run down.
Strange that Sparring is in this one considering his last start was a win at Moonee Valley in metro quality race and now he is in the Highway at Randwick. Strange, but I think it could work. Jumps from a middle barrier and should park right on the tail of the speed and JMac could get him right over the line.
Mogo Music as a $2.30 favourite in a Highway after beating virtually nobody, weird, very weird. But if he jumps clean ad gets to the front, he will definitely be the one they have to run down.
Smokeshow rounds out the exotics.
Selections: 4-3-11-8
Suggested Bet: Gallant Star Each Way
Race 4 – 2000M Furphy (Bm88)
Mahagoni is a horse that we back every start and it has worked a treat for us with multiple wins and a few placings as well. Out to 2000M now and I think he could eat it up. Couldn’t quite chase down Logan Street Lion last start, but with the extra ground I think he can definitely get the choccies this time out. But Logan Street Lion will definitely have a lot to say late and is the favourite for good reason. Wouldn’t at all be surprised if they run the quinella again.
Tony Be was no slouch at Rosehill last weekend and I love the quick backup here. Steps up in grade but gets 5kg off the back now. I think he could fly late with that low weight and will certainly be in the finish somewhere.
Helene Leadingstar is the big question mark here. Ex-Hong Kong Galloper, run pretty well in his first two Aussie starts, especially last start with a 3rd behind So Si Bon and Detonator Jack, he could win at odds if the field isn’t careful.
Selections: 7-2-9-1
Suggested Bet: Mahagoni Each Way
R5 – 1100M Grainshaker Vodka (Bm72)
Passeggiata is a horse that I have A LOT of time for. She has had 2 starts for 2 very impressive wins and I think she continues on with the job here. She is a confident bet for me here, has to go on top in this race and for the entire meeting as well as my BEST bet of the day.
Backrower has some outstanding form, that much is clear, Osipenko and Mazoice both went on to win races after Backrower ran behind them and that sort of form will take him a long way.
Lucky Variety is the one that has the really interesting form of a narrow second to Fashion legend, the 3YO Guineas winner at the Magic Millions, so gee that jumps off the page now and $17 at the time of writing is certainly a price you could entertain in betting. Watch the market closely.
Lavish Empire was smart on debut and jumps up in class now, I think he will find himself outclassed in this field but should be strong late.
Selections: 5-2-11-8
Suggested Bet: Passeggiata Win (BEST BET)
Race 6 – 1400M Drinkwise Carrington Stakes
The listed race of the day and it is a nice-looking field.
Vreneli is flying. 2 metro starts and 2 metro wins so far this prep. In both starts, he has jumped, work to the front and held them all out, and quite honestly, I think he does it again. He has winning form and he has the Bayliss/Waterhouse combo which has really picked up in Strike Rate lately, winning 19% of their starts, let’s hope he does it again.
Niccolini Vito is a talented victorian raider that comes here looking for a win in Sydney. She loves the dry deck, so if we do get to a Good 4 she will be very hard to beat in my mind. Gets an upgrade with JMac on board and the only knock is that she will have to do it the hard way from the back, but watch her fly late.
Brett Prebble has an outstanding 33% strike rate for the Austin camp so that reads really well for fellow Vic raider Looks Like Elvis. He also has to do it the hard way if he wins, but wouldn’t shock me one bit if he manages to win this one.
Titanium Power rounds out the exotics as the favourite, but I feel as though he is a false favourite, the form just doesn’t stack up as well as others.
Selections: 6-3-1-4
Suggested Bet: Vreneli
Race 7 – 1600M Fujitsu General (Bm78)
This one is probably the hardest race of the meeting to tip, but I have settled on Lekvarte here. Her last start was a run in Group 3 company and she found herself outclassed. Should jump, find herself in the midfield and then kick into high gear as they go around the bend, her sectionals are always strong, let’s hope she burns past them in the straight!
Banana Queen is flying and comes into this as a narrow second selection for me. She is ready to peak here and can win a 3rd straight if she doesn’t get stuck on the rail and boxed in. She has an engine that can match it with this field late I feel, so watch the yellow flash home late.
Sweet Mercy and Nothinsweetaboutme can both play big roles here and will round out the exotics.
Selections: 7-5-11-1
Suggested Bet: Lekvarte Each Way
Race 8 – 1400M The Agency Real Estate (Bm78)
Straight to the point here, I am a big Kanazawa guy. Flying this prep losing narrowly to Democracy Manifest, and then beating Green Shadows in a great race at this track. Never missed a top 3 finish at this track and I don’t think he will be starting this weekend. He is all class and should win again.
Shalailed should have been in the Magic Million 3YO Guineas but was robbed of a spot. So John O’Shea will want the win really badly here and he is a genuine contender to do so. Hell I Am finished 3rd in that race and he is Shalailed’s running partner lately always running into each other, so the form reads well.
Kettle Hill is a VIC raider from the Maher and Eustace camp with Jmac on, form around Savannah Cloud is really good in my mind and he has had only good runs in Australia so far, so he can certainly be a contender late here.
Frumos is perhaps the trickiest horse going around in Sydney at the moment. You can never quite catch her as she continues to guzzle money down the drain, but last tar she managed to get up by a literal whisker, seriously, I am still not convinced she actually got the bob of the head over Saigon. But she has talent, and as long as she isn’t stuck in traffic she can win.
Selections: 1-5-2-4
Suggested Bet: Kanazawa Win
race 9 – 1600M Ranvet (Bm88)
Bullfinch just has to be the bet here, doesn’t he? Just keeps running into better horses – Nugget, Jojo Was A Man, Steely, all over the Randwick Mile. Get’s another go here with a drop in class and with JMac on you just have to think he wins before heading back up for another crack at the big boys.
Bazooka at 52kg on a potentially dry deck? He is the main danger for sure. He knocked off Estadio Mestalla last start and he is no slouch at all so that form reads super. Dylan Gibbons is on board, should jump, give him a nice cushy ride with cover before trying to turn and burn down the straight and I think he can.
We rode Bold Mac last start and he was far from disgraced when running second to Vreneli and if he comes out and wins our tip for Race 6 that would put old Maccy boy in good steed to win this one. He’ll park on the leader’s tail and make a move late.
Star Sparks should be getting a soft lead here and will be the one that the field will have to chase down. He was definitely not horrible when coming 4th last star to Bazooka, but that was a race that suited the swooper mentality, whereas today could be a leaders’ paradise. Drops 5 kilos, T Clark is back on board and should run well.
Selections: 1-11-5-7
Suggested Bet: Bullfinch Win
Race 10 – Tab (Bm78)
Absolutely love the way Po Kare Kare goes about its business. Has some of the best turn of foot that you will see in a horse going around in BM78 grade. Loves running second up and flies at this track, she will prove very hard to beat.
Narito deserved favourite coming second to Passeggiata last start and will take some benefits from that form and gets the JMac/Waller combo shine. Is the main danger, just needs to get a start first.
Rocket Tiger and American President round out the numbers but I would be surprised if one of the top 2 selections didn’t win.
Selections: 11-16-3-5
Suggested Bet: Po Kare Kare Win
Top Selections For The Card
Race 1: Coincide
Race 2: Dr Evil
Race 3: Gallant Star
Race 4: Mahagoni
Race 5: Passeggiata (BEST BET)
Race 6: Vreneli
Race 7: Lekvarte
Race 8: Kanazawa
Race 9: Bullfinch
Race 10: Po Kare Kare
Quaddie
Race 7: 1, 4, 5, 6, 7, 11
Race 8: 1, 2, 4, 5
Race 9: 1, 5, 7, 11
Race 10: 11, 16
$50 Gets you 26.04%