As the AFL season draws closer, the best time to find value in the markets for the awards season is now. In this article, we will be suggesting the best value selections for the Brownlow Medal, Coleman Medal, Rising Star Award, and the Premiership winner!
BROWNLOW MEDAL:
JOSH KELLY – $67
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The departures of both Tim Taranto and Jacob Hopper throughout the off-season open up plenty of midfield opportunities at the Giants and in the case of Josh Kelly, he will be the undisputed number-one midfielder at the club. They already try and get him the ball as much as possible because he uses it so well and I can only see that being enhanced in 2023. Kelly’s highest count stands at 21 votes and over the course of that season he averaged 29 disposals a game and kicked nineteen goals. He averaged 26 last season and for the reasons stated above, it isn’t difficult to see him reach thirty a game this season. He has polled at least ten votes in five of the past six seasons and I think he will shorten dramatically throughout the course of the season as I have the Giants improving in 2023.
CONNOR ROZEE – $41
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The pick number five of the 2018 AFL draft had a career-best season last year when averaging twenty-three disposals a game and kicking eighteen goals. His last two months of football in 2022 were terrific and that amounted to him polling the majority of his fourteen Brownlow votes in that time period. With the likes of Travis Boak only getting older and with the retirement of Robbie Gray, the Power will need to rely on their younger players to stand up and I think at the age of 23, Rozee will add some more consistency to his game which could see him post upwards of 20 votes which will have in the frame to take Charlie home.
NOAH ANDERSON – $101
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Anderson is profiling as a young player who will be at the top of the count for many years to come. He polled eight votes in 2021 when only averaging twenty-two disposals a game and that increased to fourteen votes when he averaged twenty-six disposals last season. Admittedly, it might be hard for him due to teammate Touk Miller’s great polling record, but with Miller coming into the season under an injury cloud and the Suns having three winnable games in the first six weeks of football, he could start very well and be a good opportunity to lay off on Betfair to guarantee a profit!
COLEMAN MEDAL:
AARON NAUGHTON – $26
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This is the futures bet I am very keen on going into 2023. The Bulldogs superstar kicked a career-high fifty-one goals last season and played under an injury cloud for large chunks of the season. In 2021 he kicked forty-seven goals and forty behinds which had him on a very similar level of scoring shots to the likes of Tom Hawkins and Harry McKay. He has had an injury-free pre-season (touch wood), he is entering the prime of his career at around twenty-three and I think the Bulldogs will go close enough to finish top four this season which should allow him to kick the extra ten or fifteen goals he needs to win the Coleman. Tom Hawkins and Tom Lynch are also carrying injuries heading into the season (in particular Hawkins) and they should both be closer to $15. $26 seems a crazy price.
TODD MARSHALL – $41
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I think with Robbie Gray retiring and Charlie Dixon entering the twilight of his career it will be Marshall’s forward line now and he was very good last year without many plaudits when kicking forty-five goals. The important part for me is that when Port Adelaide won in 2022, Marshall kicked twenty-eight goals from their ten wins. I think the Power will win more than ten games this season and Marshall has already shown the capability of kicking big bags of goals (for modern football) kicking 4+ goals on five occasions last season. He should be shorter in this market.
NICK LARKEY – $41
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I think the appointment of Alistair Clarkson as the head coach will do wonders for Larkey who has been consistently good for the last couple of seasons, kicking forty-two goals in 2021 and thirty-eight in 2022. It was obviously very hard for a key forward in the North Melbourne set-up last season with them only winning two games and getting beaten by ten-plus goals on plenty of occasions. I think North Melbourne will be more competitive in 2023 which should allow him to have more opportunities to kick goals. He will be twenty-five halfway through the season and should be reaching the peak of his career which could open up the chance for him to kick beat his personal best by 15 – 20 goals which would have him go very close to winning the Coleman.
RISING STAR AWARD:
SAM DARCY – $9
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The shortest of odds that I have put up here is this bet but I think he has a very good chance and I am not completely sold on the fact that Will Ashcroft will have a dominant first year. I think the draft class of 2022 was a weak one and Darcy spent a year in the VFL before coming in and plying his trade admirably at the pointy part of the season in the last four games. He averaged just under a goal a game in that month and averaged six marks a game and if he repeats that over the course of a season (with some slight improvement) I think twenty-five goals and six marks a game will see him winning the Rising Star Award. He will have some memorable moments/games which always helps in these awards!
JAI CULLEY – $17
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As I said earlier I think the draft class of 2022 will not set the world on fire in their first seasons which leaves me with Culley who was a mid-season draft selection who played four of the last six games of the season for the Eagles and averaged thirteen disposals a game and a whopping 7.5 tackles. He also averaged close to four clearances a game in that patch and I think with a proper AFL pre-season under his belt he can only improve dramatically into his second season. He has a ready-made body and he will be noticed in a poor Eagles team based on the fact he is hard at it and wins clearances. $17 is a reasonable price.
PREMIERSHIP WINNER:
WESTERN BULLDOGS – $15
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The value in this market lies with the Bulldogs who have the talent and coach to win a premiership. The 2021 Grand Finalists scraped into the finals in 2022 after a disastrous start to the season which saw them start 2-4 after six weeks. They did well to regroup from that position and still play finals and I think when you look at the talent at their disposal, especially across both the midfield and forward line, they should be finishing top four which will give them a very good chance at winning a premiership. Any team with the likes of Bontempelli, Macrae, Liberatore, Treloar, Naughton, Weightman, Daniel, Dale, English, and Smith in their best 22 simply must be expected to measure up in the premiership race. This does not account for the chances of marked improvement from the likes of Sam Darcy, Jamarra Ugle-Hagan, and Ed Richards – the previous two being top-three draft picks. If they start the season well, they have an easy run home and will be at $6 at some stage during the season.
Do you agree with my selections? Disagree completely? Let me know in the comments, I would love to discuss it!