Oh boy, this is getting frustrating! Last weekend, I almost tipped the card in pure Silver, no, that isn’t a brag I know that. Sounds awfully familiar to last week when I was annoyed I almost tipped a card in bronze doesn’t it? But this one stings just that little bit more. Enough of this bonus bet stuff, let’s get some more wins!
Track Report: When it comes to the track it is currently rated a Good 4 and it will start as such on race day, but with the heat, it could certainly reach a Good 3 point at some time in the late afternoon. The rail is out eight metres for the 1600m point to the winning post and is out five metres for the remainder. As such, I expect leaders to have an advantage, but with the fast deck, there will be plenty of opportunities for backmarkers to storm down the outside, especially since there is a tailwind predicted.
Race 1 – 1000M Darley Lonhro Plate
The 2YO race of the week and I am finding it a bit of a toss-up between the top picks, as all have shown equal amounts of talent in their starts and it could really go either way depending on how they turn up on race day.
Siding with Sicilian here. I am trusting my trial-watching gut here as I have gone against it one too many times this year and it has cost me dearly. The Waterhouse/Bott-trained filly was very smart in her debut trial and won nicely leading the whole way. She has done the same twice since. She also ran very soundly in the Gimcrack Stakes despite being lame. I think Tim Clark bounces, goes to the front from the inside gate and uses the potential leader’s advantage to win.
Mexico is another one who has impressed me at trials and will be the one that they have to watch late, as he will most likely cross from the wide gate and truck right behind Sicilian and attempt to pass her in the straight. The main danger.
Portorosa and Madeira Sunrise have also had strong trials, but have come up short of Sicilian so I am unsure if they do indeed turn the tables, but they certainly shouldn’t be disrespected.
Selections: 9-3-7-5
Suggested Bet: Sicilian Win
Race 2 – 1600M Acy Securities (Bm78)
I might come to regret this but I am jumping back into the Lekvarte pool. She just had a run that screamed back me next time last start so that is exactly what I am going to do. Complete forgive run as she was smashed coming out of the gates by another horse causing her to settle much further back than she should have and she was never in it, but the best sectionals of the race by far. She has won over this distance, at this track in these conditions when the rail was out 5m, so hopefully, the extra 3 doesn’t rule her out. She also gets a 4kg weight swing on Banana Queen this time.
Banana Queen must be respected as she rises through the grades exceptionally well. She has quite the picket fence going and will be shooting for a 4th win on the trot. She’ll make her own luck on the speed and will be the one they have to run down late.
Cosmic Minerva is another one that always seems to be unlucky, like last start, where she jumped awkwardly and couldn’t find a suitable position, causing a hampered chase to the line. But with JMac and Blinkers on first time, there will be no excuses.
Yoshino is a horse that is over for my mind. I would think he would be better suited at $10 so at the current price of $16 I would certainly respect an each-way bet. He will put himself on the pace and with a nice 4kg weight swing on Banana Queen, he might just steal it.
Selections: 5-1-4-6
Suggested Bet: Lekvarte Each Way
Race 3 – 1600M Midway (Bm72)
Miss Lenorr is building to a win. She beat Crafty Eagle a few starts back, who subsequently won a few races, and also came very close in this grade last start. She is always chasing and doesn’t quite get to the line, but with the extra couple hundred metres here, she can certainly get over the top of them at value odds here.
Lovetheinvasion should have the speed to cross them all and Dylan Gibbons should give it every chance in the world right up the front of the pack. Another one that is always chasing and will now be nice and fit, ready to peak and could go all the way with it.
Dr Evil is one of the more consistent horses running around currently, and he has dropped all the way into Midway class. JMac on board, which means he will have few excuses if he fails to fire. The only thing that could do him in is the fact that he prefers a bit of juice in the track, and it’s predicted to be bone dry.
Two Big Fari drops a mile in class. He is coming off runs against the likes of Banju and Cuban Royale and now goes to a Midway. He carries a heavy weight of course, but the class could prevail.
Selections:10-5-2-1
Suggested Bet: Miss Lenorr Each Way
Race 4 – 1200M Tab Highway (C3)
Preemptory could be a cheeky play here. Last start he was very strong late without getting too close to the winner, but with an extra 100M here and a drop in class he can win. He was racing against the likes of Iowna Merc and West of Africa and couldn’t hack it, better suited here.
Super Extreme will be in this for a long way. He is already a Highway winner and with Jmac on board and a potential on-pace bias, he should get a really cushy run behind those leaders. He has found the 1400m a touch too far lately so I think the drop in distance will work wonders.
Amulet Street is the class horse of this field. He was very strong in the Country Championships last year and is potentially headed down that path again, but as such, he needs to carry a large weight. I feel as though he is much better suited to the 1400m, but he has won twice at the 1200m.
Rachel King could be on for a win here if Clever Art is up to the task. He has managed to win 3 on the trot, but that was in a much weaker class. A harder task here, but if she is within striking distance, she could potentially run over the top of them in the final stages.
Selections: 8-11-1-12
Suggested Bet: Preemptory Each Way
Race 5 – 1300M Congrats Sam And David (Bm78)
Pretty Wild will settle right behind the speed if she doesn’t get trapped wide and I think she will be prime to run them down in the straight. Does best work when 3rd up and when at this distance I feel. As I said, if she gets cover, she will be a massive player come to the final stages.
Anagain seems to be building a nice prep by getting better with every run. Last start she was very close to defeating Essonne in what was a very solid run. Now with the extra 50m here, she could end up getting her nose in front at the end. She is well down in the weights and could fly late.
Hopefully, the rise to 1300m is the final piece to the Rupertarr puzzle. He just keeps running into one better, Shades of Rose, Po Kare Kare, Ringmaster, Dehorned Unicorn, all of them have outrun him to the line in the shorter course sprints. Never seen 1300m but he could really stretch her legs out.
Beware the Maher and Eustace raider and that is exactly what Sonora is. Is really consistent both at this distance and in these conditions. She’ll most likely have to do it the tough way from that barrier forcing her wide, but if she finds cover she can be one of the main dangers.
Selections: 4-10-3-8
Suggested Bet: Pretty Wild Win
Race 6 – 1600M Drinkwise Mile
I am all over Banju here. Yes, I know he isn’t the class horse of the field, but he is super fit, goes in all conditions and will be the one they have to run down. With an entire 8kg swing on the likes of Soulcombe and No Compromise, he will be in it for a very long time. The market seems to agree with these thoughts as he is the favourite and is primed for the upset. 51kgs is feathers, he will park on the speed and I think he goes all the way.
Soulcombe is the one I am talking about when I am talking about class. He is the favourite for the Melbourne Cup and has some immense talent, that much was clear with the strong Aussie debut run back in the Spring. The only issue is the 9 more kilos he carries than Banju, as well as his nasty habit of missing the start. He will be absolutely charging home late and honestly, class could prevail, ala Surefire in the Spring, but I think he is vulnerable without the fitness and extra weight.
The same can be said for No Compromise. He won’t be as sharp and the mile is far from his ideal distance. I think the place for the price is a definite play, but I can’t see him winning.
Beaufort Park rounds out the selections with the race fitness that will be on his side.
Selections: 6-2-1-8
Suggested Bet: Banju Win and 1, 2, 6 Boxed Trifecta
Race 7 – 1000M Yarraman Park (Bm94)
I may regret this, but I am going against Remarque, who I am usually always with. But it isn’t the grand final day for him and with 62kg on the back, it’ll be mighty hard to beat Kote who will park on the speed and carry a whole 10kg less. He plans on being in the TJ Smith field later this Autumn and if he is that good, he NEEDS to be winning this. There will be very few excuses if he doesn’t perform. Remarque will truck behind that speed and run on very strong, he goes in as a very narrow second selection.
Easy Single flies first up and can go on all conditions. He was remarkable in the Winter on the wet tracks but can win on the dry decks as well. Will be up there at the front of the pack and if he puts his foot down at the right point he could potentially cause an upset.
Dragonstone hasn’t won for a while, but this is the sort of race you can see him breaking the cold streak.
Selections: 10-1-4-3
Suggested Bet: Kote Win and 1, 10 Boxed Exacta
Race 8 – 1200M g3 Fujitsu General Eskimo Prince Stakes
I am tipping an upset in the Eskimo Prince. Zou Tiger to cross them all with no speed drawn inside and hold them out all the way, even Aft Cabin. The very talented Tom Marquand is on board and he should be nice and patient and as soon as he goes around that bend, away he goes. His trials have been great and he is the one I want to be with first up, Aft Cabin is more of a horse you want over the mile now, while Zou Tiger is more of a sprinter. I prefer the odds of Zou Tiger as well, over what will most likely end up a below $2 odds Aft Cabin. But he is to be respected and is the second selection.
Osipenko is a very talented horse for Waller and could be a major player in the Group 1 races for the 3YO’s later on in the Autumn, but over a much further distance. He will sit right behind Zou Tiger and be the one to flash late. He is a big watch in the market.
Communist is the roughie of the race that will round out the exotics but would be surprised if anything other than the top 3 selections won.
Selections: 9-3-5-6
Suggested Bet: Zou Tiger Win (Best Bet)
Race 9 – 1800M Tab (Bm78)
I am all over the two imports here Kettle Hill and especially Wineglass Bay. They have both been racing at much shorter distances than they’re bred for and have still been quite consistent. Wineglass Bay is the one I want. He continues to chase on and falls just short, but with an extra 300m to stretch his legs out now, he can really put them to bed down the straight if he isn’t stuck in traffic. The same can be said for the narrow second selection of Kettle Hill. Weird that they didn’t try and book Tom Marquand since he is in town and he was his regular Europe jockey back in the day, but JMac is the best in the business for a reason and he has a great strike rate with Maher and Eustace. 1/1 3rd up and could very well be 2/2 after this weekend.
Star Sparks will be in front for the majority of the race and will prove hard to run down if he is already 2-3 lengths in front going around the bend as Parr will press the button and off he will go. The only query is the distance, but if he runs out a strong 1800, he will be hard to beat.
King Ratel is always around the mark and I expect nothing less here, he will need to ensure he doesn’t get trapped in traffic on the post he can win.
Selections: 14-4-1-6
Suggested Bet: Wineglass Bay Each Way
Race 10 – 1200M Petaluma (Bm78)
Sacrimony is flying without winning going 2nd, 2nd, 3rd, and 3rd so far this prep. JMac booked which shows the camp is confident, which they seem to be, Waller has come out and said that as long as he gets a clear run to the line, this is his race to lose. So hopefully he comes home strong and wins the get-out stakes.
Lindermann is well short of his best distance here, but the class could prevail. He has some fantastic form from last prep and finished off really strongly over the 1800m mark in his final start, and of course, he doesn’t have that long to stretch out, but if he sits just off the speed, he could win with his late run.
Pokerjack and Billiondollarbaby are potentially the only other ones I could enthuse.
Selections: 7-13-12-14
Suggested Bet: Sacrimony Win
Top Selections For The Card
Race 1: Sicilian
Race 2: Lekvarte
Race 3: Miss Lenorr
Race 4: Preemptory
Race 5: Pretty Wild
Race 6: Banju
Race 7: Kote
Race 8: Zout Tiger (BEST BET)
Race 9: Wineglass Bay
Race 10: Sacrimony
Quaddie
Race 7: 1, 10
Race 8: 3, 5, 8
Race 9: 1, 4, 6, 14
Race 10: 7, 13
$50 gets you 69.44%