Hey Legends, I will be having a crack at some of the Melbourne cards of Saturday racing over the Autumn Carnival so make sure to follow along! I operate slightly differently to Cashy as I not only give my thoughts on the race and suggested bets, but they come with a suggested stake as well to make sure you know exactly where my money is going.
We head out to Sandown for Blue Diamond Stakes day where three Group Ones will be run and won in the Blue Diamond Stakes, The Futurity Stakes, and the Oakleigh Plate. Let’s get into it!
Race 1 – 2100M Ladbrokes Victoria Gold Cup
This is not a race I am keen to bet into early in the program. I think RIGHT YOU ARE deserves to be the favourite but I thought he would be around the $2.40 quote and definitely not $1.75. He was an utterly dominant winner over 1800m around the Hillside circuit when beating some talented types in Detonator Jack and Beltoro by 4.25L and a repeat of that would see him awfully hard to beat here. The main query for mine is the fact that I think he is much better suited over 1800m than he is over 2100m. He does not go up in weight off that win though and draws to get a perfect run. The one to beat.
SARACEN KNIGHT is the main danger. He finished off his last preparation with a dominant win in the Herbert Power when winning by 1.25L and I loved his trial leading into this first-up run. It Maps well and can beat the favourite.
MIDNIGHT BLUE comes to the races off a heap of trials back home and his first-up record is solid. It would not surprise to see him in the finish here at $11 and he looks the overs in a small field.
Suggested Bet: No Bet
R2: 1400M Ladbrokes Angus Armanasco Stks
Happy to back a couple here at decent prices. CALL DI comes down from Sydney and finished off her last preparation when a fast finishing third behind a smart horse in A lot More Love in listed grade. She did not have too much luck in that race and she was tipped out immediately. She has returned a much more furnished Filly and she showed a change of tactics when sitting outside the leader in a Randwick Kensington maiden before pulling away from her rivals late to win by 0.75L. She won in very quick time on that occasion and I think there was still plenty of improvement to come from that. She draws perfectly (6) and gets Damien Oliver on board which is a big positive.
SHE’S LICKETYSPLIT is the other I want to be with. The New Zealander struck a couple of heavy tracks which were not to her favour in the Spring but when she got a dry deck over a mile at Flemington she was a very good winner at G2 level. She draws perfectly (3) to settle near the speed here and I think the first-up run in the Kevin Hayes was a glorified trial. It is a good platform for her to bounce off here.
SHUFFLE DANCER is a very progressive Filly who was only 1.5L off Wrote to Arataki two-back and that form looks like the best coming into this race. I think with the tricky draw (9) she is too short though at $3.80. This is much harder than her last start win.
ROYAL MERCHANT is the likely leader here and she was terrific when 0.6L off Jacquinot at G3 level two-back. They went too quick out in front last start in a race set up for the swoopers and she gets a much better set-up here. If she gets out towards $10, she probably has to be a bet.
Suggested Bets: #8 CALl DI – $6.50 – 0.75U WIN/#1 SHE’S LICKETYSPLIT – $7 – 0.5U WIN
Race 3 – 1400M Catanach’s Jewellers Mannerism
Small but incredibly open race here. I liked the recent jumpouts of PRIDE OF JENNI who I have got plenty of time for. A couple of preparations ago she was a neck away from winning at G2 level in a stronger race than this when up against Mystic Journey and her runs behind Excelida and Chain of Lightning’s last preparation waer very good. The knock is that she has never won fresh but she has not trialled as well as this leading into any other preparation. I think she will lead and be hard to run down.
TURAATH maps to get the run of the race and has the fitness edge over most of these. The first-up effort behind Jigsaw was excellent and she was just outclassed at G1 level last start. She likes this track and comes back in grade significantly.
TOREGENE is still on the way up and has won four from six. She was very brave on a hot speed at the end of last preparation and her trials leading into this preparation have been terrific. She will appreciate Sandown. BARB RAIDER might need further but cannot be discounted.
SUGGESTED BET: NO BET
Race 4: 1200M Ladbrokes Zeditave Stakes
I think the appointment of Jamie Kah on SPACEWALK could be a winning move. The Exosphere Gelding was an unlucky third behind a couple of very good horses fresh in Mariamia and Midwest and he subsequently went on to beat a handy type in Kalino last start in arrogant fashion. He pulled a whole heap during that race and I think with the soft hands (and likely strong tempo) of Jamie Kah she might be able to get him relaxed and into a rhythm that will see him very hard to beat here. He maps to get the run of the race (2) behind the leaders and he brings the best form line into this.
I think QUEEN OF THE BALL has more improvement to come second-up off a fifteen-month break than Ric Fortune does (off seven weeks) so it is easy to see the tables being turned. She generally improves second-up and will put herself into the race and potentially lead.
LA DANSEUSE ROUGE tries her heart out every time she goes to the races and I thought it was a big effort first-up to only finish 1L off Rich Fortune after missing the kick. She will settle closer here and should improve. SEBONACK is the best roughie. Include in the multiples.
Suggested Bet: #4 SPACEWALK – $3.50 – 1U WIN
Race 5: 1800M Stow Storage Autumn Classic
Think you can back a few here for a handy profit. Willing to take on Hennessy Lad, Ausbred Rising Sun, and Acosta who are all single digits which opens up some betting opportunities. MR MAESTRO was terrific on resumption here a fortnight ago over 1400m in a race that was not run to suit. He was outsprinted throughout the majority of the straight but the fact that he only finished 1L away indicates he has come back in good order. He goes from 1400m – 1800m here which I think is the perfect set up and from the draw (3) I think he will get the run of the race. That first-up run is a brilliant platform for this.
The two at big odds that can figure are YASUKE and HIGH APPROACH. YASUKE debuted over the 1400m at Pakenham when settling 3WNC the trip and still winning by 0.75L in what was a rather dominant display and I do not think he handled the Valley over the mile last start. Getting back to a spacious track is a big tick and I think he will settle around midfield and be hard to hold out late. HIGH APPROACH ended last preparation when beating a smart horse in Lindermann at Flemington over this trip and he had absolutely zero luck on resumption at the Valley over 1500m against the older horses (Worsfold was second). He will need some luck from the wide gate (15) but if he gets it I think he will be in the finish.
PERICLES was luckless on resumption in the same race Mr Maestro come out of when 3WNC the trip. He battled on well to finish only 1L off the winner but I think at $3.20 he is too short. Should be closer to $5.50.
Suggested Bets: MR MAESTRO – $5 – 1U WIN/#11 YASUKE – $17 – 0.5U WIN/#4 HIGH APPROACH – $23 – 0.25U WIN
Race 6 – 1800m Carlton Draught Peter Young
Found this race to be very tricky. GOLD TRIP represents a good lay opportunity. He is much too short at $3 for a horse coming off a Melbourne Cup run and that could not beat Persan home in a recent trial over 1550m.
STEINEM is the value. She was only 1.5L off Amelia’s Jewel two-back who I think is one of our best horses and she was only nailed late at G2 level over 2100m at Ascot. Her trial leading into this was encouraging and I think she will be able to cross easily from the gate (8) and get the run of the race. She will get a rock hard track which she loves and at close to $10 I think she is the bet.
KEATS was the pick of the on-speed horses first-up at the Hillside circuit over the mile when they went at a break neck tempo early. He would probably prefer a track with a bit of give in it but he will be allowed to dictate the terms of this race and could catch a few of these at the right time.
EMISSARY goes well fresh and was terrific last preparation over 1700m at Caulfield when beating Jimmy the Bear with ease first-up. He was the runner-up in that Melbourne Cup and is much better suited over this trip. He should be the narrow favourite at around $4.
SUGGESTED BET: NO BET
Race 7 – 1200M Ladbrokes Blue Diamond Stakes
The first of the features arrives here with the Blue Diamond. I think you can back a few here. STEEL CITY was the clear winner of the barrier draw and even though she has not won yet in her career her two seconds behind Red Resistance and Learning to Fly are the best 2YO form lines we have in the country at present in my opinion. She draws perfectly (5) to stalk what is always a hot speed in this race and she will be very hard to hold out. The $4.50 is a reasonable price.
LITTLE BROSE seems like a ridiculous price considering he is $11 and Barber is $6. He won easily at the end of last preparation when beating a good horse in Cylinder by 1.25L and his resuming run behind Barber was terrific. 1200m suits this bloke more and with some more positivity early in the race he should not be too far away from them and I think he has the best turn of foot.
VEECEE is the forgotten horse. He was an utterly dominant winner over 1100m on debut down the straight when winning by 2.5L before coming back to 1000m when 1.25L off Zulfiqar in the Chairman’s Stakes. Back to 1200m is ideal and he will be flashing home late.
BRAVE HALO is not without a chance but the gate (16) makes it tough considering he is going to have to burn early petrol. I think he would have beaten Barber last start with even luck so he is in the conversation.
Suggested Bet: 1#2 STEEL CITY – $4.50 – 1U WIN/#4 LITTLE BROSE – 0.6U WIN/#7 VEECEE – $20 – 0.4U WIN
Race 8 – 1400M Ladbrokes Futurity Stakes
Happy to make MR BRIGHTSIDE one of the better bets on the program. He jumped awkwardly on resumption in the C.F. ORR and was brilliant over the concluding stages of that race when clocking the third fastest last 200m split of the meeting. I think in this race he can settle closer to the speed (basically sit behind the leaders) from the perfect draw (5) and he generally improves a few lengths second-up. If he does improve a few lengths off that run, I think he just wins this race. I was surprised to see him at $6. I think that price is brilliant value.
ALLIGATOR BLOOD gets the synthetic hoof filler OFF for the first time which is a big gear change. From the draw (4) you would assume he will lead/box seat and I do not think I’m Thunderstruck is going as well as he was last preparation when he pipped him on the line in the Makybe Diva. I think he turns the tables here.
I’M THUNDERSTRUCK peaked late on resumption which was expected and did not lose any admirers off that effort. I do not think staying at 1400m is ideal for him though and he might get out-sprinted by a few of these at this trip.
NUGGET maps to get the run of the race and should not be discounted. He finished alongside the front few in the C.F ORR.
Suggested Bet: #3 MR BRIGHTSIDE – $6 – 1.5U EACH WAY
Race 9 – 1100M Ladbrokes Oakleigh Plate
A plethora of chances like always in what is the best Oakleigh Plate I’ve ever seen. I think the best way to approach this race from a punting perspective is to back a few at odds and cross your fingers. I am convinced that UNCOMMON JAMES is a brilliant galloper and his effort first-up in the Rubiton when he was run over late by Lofty Strike did not do anything to change that opinion. It was a swooper-dominated race and he was the only horse that was on the speed that figured in the finish (the leader finished 6L away). I think he will bounce off that run here and it has been the target the whole time. $12 is generous.
ZAPATEO went to another level last preparation and was a dominant winner when fresh in Sydney. She beat Chain of Lightning with ease in that preparation (admittedly on a Heavy track) and was then luckless behind Asfoora who is $6 here. Her trials have been fantastic leading into this and at $17 she is a bet.
MASKED CRUSADER gets the right set-up here. He hates heavy tracks/straight-track racing and his trials leading into this indicate that he is back to somewhere near his best. He fires fresh and if he can replicate his best performances, he simply wins this race. $27 is way too big a price.
CHAIN OF LIGHTNING is still on the up and was very good on resumption at this track and must be considered. ASFOORA, STAR PATROL, and KING OF SPARTA all have claims in a very open race.
Suggested Bets: #8 UNCOMMON JAMES – $11 – 0.6U WIN/#16 ZAPATEO – $17 – 0.4U WIN/#3 MASKED CRUSADER – $27 – 0.3U WIN
BETS ON THE PROGRAM:
RACE 2 #8 CALL DI – $6.50 – 0.75U WIN/#1 SHE’S LICKETYSPLIT – $7 – 0.5U WIN
RACE 4 #4 SPACEWALK – $3.50 – 1U WIN
RACE 5 #1 MR MAESTRO – $5 – 1U WIN/#11 YASUKE – $17 – 0.5U WIN/#4 HIGH APPROACH – $23 – 0.25U WIN
RACE 7 #12 STEEL CITY – $4.50 – 1U WIN/#4 LITTLE BROSE – 0.6U WIN/#7 VEECEE – $20 – 0.4U WIN
RACE 8 #3 MR BRIGHTSIDE – $6 – 1.5U EACH WAY
RACE 9 #8 UNCOMMON JAMES – $11 – 0.6U WIN/#16 ZAPATEO – $17 – 0.4U WIN/#3 MASKED CRUSADER – $27 – 0.3U WIN
OUTLAY: 10.3U
BEST BET: MR BRIGHTSIDE