The time has finally come. The moment we have all been waiting for. The UFC has said it themselves, this is in the top 5 for the biggest main events of all time and it’s right on HOME SOIL LIVE FROM THE RAC ARENA IN PERTH! The stakes are high, this is the first time the #1 P4P is fighting the #2 P4P and to top it all off, it’s for the Lightweight Championship! So let’s breakdown Islam Makachev vs Alexander Volkanovski.
Islam Makachev has been on an absolute tear in the UFC picking apart every single person who has come in his way and most recently won the Lightweight Championship by submitting the submission king himself Charles Oliverira. On his pathway to the title he made light work of Bobby Green, Submitted Dan Hooker, submitted Drew Dober and Thiago Moises got the same treatment. What you will find for Islam is he is quite a versatile fighter with underrated striking due to just how insanely good his wrestling is. In this fight you will see Islam look to stand on the feet to get some reads before looking to find the right moment to take Alex Volkanovski too the ground before smothering him for what I believe will be a minimum of 15 minutes control time in this fight. If Islam can control Volk for long periods of time I do believe it will be exhausting enough to set up for a submission attempt to end the fight.
Islam Makachev is currently landing 2.37 Significant strikes per minute with 59% accuracy. Insanely enough not many people can touch Islam and for that reason he is only absorbing an incredible 0.95 Strikes per minute with 66% striking defense. When it comes to the grapple game, we all know what Islam brings… 3.45 takedown attempts per 15 minutes with 65% accuracy. 88% takedown defense with 1.3 submissions attempted per 15 minutes.
Now Alex is not one to be written off because every single time he continues to shock the world with his absolute brilliance. 12-0 in the UFC and has beaten the likes of Jose Aldo, Chad Mendes, Brian Ortega, Korean Zombie and oh MAX FREAKING HOLLOWAY THREE TIMES. Who can forget the all time great fights Alex has dished up with his frequent masterclasses in Striking, incredible submissions escapes against Brian Ortega and still fighting to the bell. Alexander Volkanovski is in the absolute elite tier of MMA fighters in UFC history and his quest to shock the world again by being the next Champ Champ. In this fight its going to come down to Alex’s ability so stop the takedown and keep this fight on the feet. Islam hasn’t been truly tested on the feet and we all saw what Volk can do against some of the best strikers in the UFC i.e Max Holloway III. If Volk can continue to press islam whilst ensuring he is keeping his distance to stop the takedowns, Volks striking will be able to do enough talking to win him rounds.
Alexander Volkanovski is currently landing 6.79 significant strikes per minute with 57% accuracy. Volk is however absorbing 3.53 strikes per minute with a strike defense of 60%. Alex has proven he is also capable of WRESTLING and can hold his own with 1.71 takedowns attempted per 15 minutes with 35% accuracy. Volks takedown defense will need to be on point and he will hope to leverage his 73% takedown defense and raise that even higher in this fight.
To summarise my thoughts on this fight. I believe if this fight remains on the feet it should heavily favor Volkanovski. If this goes to the ground I can see Islam Makachev controlling him for endless amounts of time before the bell rings or gets tapped. I’m going with Islam Makachev to win this but I will definitely be hedging it with a Volkanovski by Decision win!