G’day legends I am back again for another week but not only for racing tips! The start of the AFL season begins on Thursday and we will be previewing every game to try and find out who the winner will be. There will be a separate article regarding the AFL bets for round one action, but this preview is going to discuss who will win and why. Let’s get into it!
Richmond V Carlton – Thursday Night Football – 7:20PM – MCG
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The Tigers and Blues are back to opening the season on Thursday night and it looks to be one of the most exciting games of the opening round. Both teams ended their seasons in 2022 in heartbreaking fashion. For the Tigers, it was an agonising loss in the Elimination Final to the Lions and for the Blues, it was a last-minute goal from arch-rival Collingwood that ended their dreams of finals. Both teams are expecting at a minimum a finals appearance in 2023 and the fact that they hate each other makes it all the more exciting for a neutral fan.
WHERE THE TIGERS CAN WIN:
The Tigers need to improve their stoppage work from last season (they ranked sixteenth in clearances) and the recruits of Jacob Hopper and Tim Taranto will most assuredly do that. If they can break even in the centre of the ground against a very good Carlton midfield group, the Tigers will reap the rewards when going forward with the medium and smaller-sized forwards doing the damage. The Blues don’t really have a match-up for either Shai Bolton or Dustin Martin when they go forward and they have been a constant thorn in the side of the Blues in this matchup in recent years and it is difficult to see that change on Thursday. The Tigers also have very dangerous small forwards in the likes of Noah Cumberland (19 goals in 9 games last season) and Maurice Rioli Jnr who kicked fifteen goals last season and I think the Blues, without a lockdown small defender, will struggle to keep the Tiger smalls at bay.
WHERE THE BLUES CAN WIN:
The Blues will be hoping to be completely dominant in the air on Thursday night and with dry conditions expected it is a good chance of happening. With the absences of Robbie Tarrant and Josh Gibcus I think rookie selection Tylar Young will debut and probably have to play on one of McKay and or Curnow which obviously opens up plenty of opportunities for the Carlton forward line. The Tigers have generally done a good job shutting down the twin towers of the Blues in the past but with the injuries to the defence mounting it is hard to see them being able to keep them quiet again. The Blues will also have either Tom De Koning or Marc Pittonet resting forward which will further stretch the Tigers’ defence and if the Blues are getting any easy ball into that forward line, the Tigers defenders in Noah Balta, Dylan Grimes, Nathan Broad and Nick Vlastuin are going to have their work cut out for them. The air control will not only be potentially problematic for the Tigers in defence but also in attack. The Tigers will go in with the two talls The and Young all being above 194cm. The Tigers will need to use the ball smartly going inside fifty or they risk the Blues intercepting and thwarting their entries all night.
TIP: This is a real 50/50 but I trust the Tigers more than the Blues. Tigers by 10 points.
GEELONG VS COLLINGWOOD – FRIDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL – 7.40PM – MCG
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The reigning premiers Geelong return to try and defend their title in 2023 and face the Preliminary Finalist from last year in Collingwood. These two teams played in a couple of brilliant games against each other last year with the Cats getting the job done in both by six and thirteen points respectively. There doesn’t appear to be much between them again this season so let’s discuss who will win and why!
WHERE THE CATS CAN WIN:
With all things being equal the Geelong defence will be their strongest asset in this game and I think they can strangle the Pies’ attack and make it very difficult for them to kick a winning score. I think the two teams are evenly matched regarding the midfield battle and even the Cats’ attack versus the Pies’ defence, but there isn’t really a match-up that Geelong will be worried about defensively. No Collingwood player has kicked more than two goals in any of the club’s last three encounters with the Cats and I don’t see that changing on Friday Night considering the back six should only be strengthened by the improvement of young superstar Sam De Koning. I think the Pies will struggle to kick a winning score and in stages in games between the two teams last year Geelong completely strangled them. In quarters two and four in their last encounter, Collingwood combined for eleven points and in the first final last year they again only combined for twenty-two points in a half of football. It is hard to see that changing here with the absence of their second-best forward in Jack Ginnivan.
WHERE THE PIES CAN WIN:
Positionally the area Collingwood could get the cats is their depth through the midfield and in particular in the contest. Neither team are really dominant in clearance numbers but one has to get on top in this area and I think with the retirement of Joel Selwood and Patrick Dangerfield needing to be nursed through games, the depth of the Collingwood midfield could prove troublesome for the Cats with the likes of Taylor Adams, Tom Mitchell, Jack Crisp, Scott Pendlebury, Jordan Degoey, Josh Daicos, and Nick Daicos all rolling through there. When the Pies got on top in the middle of the ground in different stages against the Cats last year they scored heavily (nine goals in a quarter) and I think it is their only avenue to getting the win on Friday night. They simply must dominate through the middle and get easy ball into their forwards or they will not win.
TIP: I think the Cats will be too good. Geelong by 26 points.
NORTH MELBOURNE VS WEST COAST – SATURDAY 1.45PM – MARVEL STADIUM
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This is a very important game for both teams considering I don’t think either will win many games this season so they have to take every chance they get against similar lowly ranked teams. North will play their first game under legendary coach Alistair Clarkson after winning the Wooden Spoon last season and they play the 17th team from last season in the Eagles who will be hoping for better results with an injury-free list.
WHERE THE KANGAROOS CAN WIN:
Spread quickly and speed out of the stoppage is going to be the key to victory for the Kangaroos. This Eagles midfield is very slow and there is a lot of sameness about it with the likes of Yeo, Sheed, Gaff, and even the older players like Tim Kelly and Luke Shuey lacking the dash they once had. The opposite can be said for North Melbourne who have the youthful exuberance of the likes of Jy Simpkin, Will Phillips, Jaidyn Stephenson and Luke Davies-Uniacke who have both a good mix of speed and power. If North can get the ball on the outside and use their speed to open up the Eagles on the fast deck that is Marvel Stadium, the dam wall of the Eagles’ defence will eventually break and the likes of Nick Larkey and Cam Zurhaar can take the game away from the Eagles.
WHERE THE EAGLES CAN WIN:
If the Eagles manage to halve the midfield battle it will go a long way to them winning the game as I think with the absence of Ben McKay the North Melbourne defence is very undersized and understrength. They have no match-up for either Oscar Allen or Bailey Williams (think he will be picked) who are both very promising key forwards. Allen has a leap that the likes of Corr and Logue will not be able to compete with and Williams is simply too tall for them at 200cm. Then you can add in Jack Darling who is one of the competition’s best medium-sized forwards and the smaller guys in Liam Ryan and Jamie Cripps and all of a sudden there is a ton of troublesome matchups for that North Melbourne defence. If the Eagles can get it in there quickly and not get comprehensively beaten in the midfield and at the stoppage, I think they will kick a winning score and win the game.
TIP: I think the Eagles in a close one. West Coast by eleven points.
PORT ADELAIDE VS BRISBANE – SATURDAY 4:35PM – ADELAIDE OVAL
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Port Adelaide were 0-6 after a month and a half in 2022 and their season was over before it began. They will be hoping that they can hit the ground running in 2023 but they face a stiff test in the Brisbane Lions who are expected to finish in the top four and are a legitimate premiership contender. The Power have their work cut out for them but there is an avenue to victory.
WHERE THE POWER CAN WIN:
It is going to be very hard for the Power on their home deck but I think their forward line poses some issues for the Lions if they can get going. Todd Marshall was terrific last season kicking forty-five goals and with Charlie Dixon back into the 22 he will get the second-best defender in either Jackson Payne or Darragh Joyce. I think the Power will try and isolate that match up as much as they can. The other matchups that are a worry for the Lions are that of Orazio Fantasia and Junior Rioli. Starcevich will take one and probably minimise their output but they have no match-up for the other. If the Power midfield can get some easy ball and quick ball into their forward fifty the Lions’ defenders will have some issues on their hands.
WHERE THE LIONS CAN WIN:
Brisbane can win this by dominating through the middle of the ground. The Lions ranked second in clearances amongst the competition last season and then have gone and recruited Josh Dunkley who is an absolute star and they got Will Ashcroft as a father-son who has plenty of Nick Daicos about him. A midfield of Neale, Dunkley, McCluggage and Berry with the likes of Zac Bailey, Dayne Zorko, and Will Ashcroft could just be too much to handle for a Port Adelaide team that struggled against big-bodied midfielders last year. Ollie Wines and Travis Boak are both coming into the season underdone and too much pressure could be put on the shoulders of Connor Rozee and Zak Butters. The forward line is also a concern with the Power still being undersized down back. Joe Daniher and Eric Hipwood are both above 200cm tall whilst Allir Allir is 194cm and Tom Jonas is 188cm. They should cause them major problems in the air which will allow the likes of Charlie Cameron and Jack Gunston to go to work.
TIP: Think the Lions will be too strong for the Power. Lions by 28 Points.
MELBOURNE VS WESTERN BULLDOGS – SATURDAY NIGHT – 7:25PM – MCG
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Both of these teams ended the year on a poor note after expecting so much in the September of 2022 and the expectation at both clubs is a top-four finish and this contest should be the game of the round. The two teams don’t like each other after the 2021 Grand Final and there will be no love lost as they start their campaigns dreaming of Premiership glory.
WHERE MELBOURNE CAN WIN IT:
Melbourne’s small forwards might decide the outcome of this game. The midfield battle is tantalising but I think they will probably have the middle of the ground and I think the height of the Dogs’ forward line will make Melbourne have to defend a whole lot more which will minimise their intercept game. The one position Melbourne can look to exploit is the Bulldogs’ small defenders. Bailey Williams is a very underrated player and can do the job on one of them but the likes of Fritsch (55 goals last season), Pickett (41 goals last season), and Petracca (19 goals last season) are a handful for any team. If the smalls and the goal-kicking midfielders don’t combine for at least seven to ten goals, I don’t think Melbourne can kick a winning score. Plenty of pressure boys!
WHERE THE BULLDOGS CAN WIN IT:
If the Dogs can match it in the contest with the Demons their outside run might be the difference and I think they will actually like playing on the MCG this season. Melbourne have the likes of Tom Langdon, Lachie Hunter, and Angus Brayshaw on the wings and flanks but it pales in comparison to the Bulldogs’ drive and run that the likes of Bailey Dale, Caleb Daniel, Bailey Smith, Ed Richards, Adam Treloar, and Toby McLean can create. If Melbourne allows an easy ball out of the contest the Dogs will feast on it all night and with the likes of Aaron Naughton, Rory Lobb, Jamarra Ugle-Hagan, and Sam Darcy in the forward fifty, this year they will be able to kick winning scores. On a dry night at the MCG, speed might be the killer for the Demons.
TIP: I am tipping the Dogs in a close one. Dogs by 8 points.
GOLD COAST VS SYDNEY SWANS – SATURDAY NIGHT 8PM – HERITAGE BANK STADIUM
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In typical Sydney fashion, they play in one of the lesser talked about games of the opening round. They were humiliated in the Grand Final last year and it will be interesting to see how they fare early in the season to see if there are any effects from that loss. For the Suns, the Finals is the expectation.
WHERE THE SUNS CAN WIN IT:
The Suns need to rely on their star players really dominating in this game or else I can’t see them getting within five goals of the Swans. The likes of Touk Miller, Noah Anderson, Matt Rowell, Ben King, and Jarrod Witts are going to need to play out of their skin. That isn’t saying that they cannot, but outside of the rare chance that all five of those players have near career-best nights, it is hard to see them beating the Swans.
WHERE THE SWANS CAN WIN IT:
I think the Swans have the Suns measure all over the ground but in particular, in attack, they pose plenty of issues for the Suns. The likes of Ballard and Collins will have their work cut out for them trying to constrain Lance Franklin and Logan McDonald but the medium to small-sized forwards are where the real danger is. The Suns have no real lockdown small defender by nature and that spells trouble considering the Swans possess brilliant small to medium-sized forwards in Tom Papley and Will Hayward. Isaac Heeney and Erol Gulden will also spend major chunks of the game in the forward fifty and I am just not sure Gold Coast have an answer for them. Providing the Swans win some of their own ball I think they will be much too strong for the Suns.
TIP: Swans to win rather easily. Swans by 44 points.
GWS GIANTS VS ADELAIDE CROWS – SUNDAY 1:10PM – GIANTS STADIUM
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Both of these clubs had poor years in 2022 and it saw the back of Giants coach Leon Cameron and now Adam Kingsley taking over for his first game as a senior coach. There is some notable outs for the Giants with Tim Taranto, Jacob Hopper, Tanner Bruhn, and Bobby Hill all leaving the club in the off-season. For the Crows, they recruited Izak Rankine and now is the time for them to start rising up the ladder.
WHERE THE GIANTS CAN WIN IT:
I know the Giants ranked twelfth across the competition in clearances last year but under a new coach and new coaching staff, they would be hoping that improves and on paper, it should here. The Giants midfield boasts the likes of Tom Green, Stephen Coniglio, Josh Kelly, Callan Ward and then they also have the likes of Harry Perryman, Toby Greene, Lachie Ash, and Lachie Whitfield rolling through it. When you compare that to a Crows midfield which doesn’t really bat much deeper than Rory Laird, Rory Sloane, Ben Keays, and Sam Berry there shouldn’t be any excuses for the Giants midfield on Sunday afternoon. They are bigger, stronger, and greater than the Crows’ midfield and if they cannot win in this area, alarm bells will be ringing for the next few weeks.
WHERE THE CROWS CAN WIN IT:
The Crows need to halve the contest in the middle (I don’t think they can win it so halving it needs to be the goal) and then expose the younger and less experienced key defenders of the Giants. Outside of Sam Taylor who is a very good key defender, the Giants will have to play either youngster Leek Aleer or the undersized Conor Idun on one of Taylor Walker or Darcy Fogarty. That is one match-up the Crows need to exploit when the ball enters their forward fifty and the other is the Izak Rankine match-up. The Giants don’t really have anyone that can go with him both in the air and on the ground and it will be an interesting watch to see how they deal with him.
TIP: Wasn’t an easy game to pick. Going with the Giants by 3 points.
HAWTHORN VS ESSENDON – SUNDAY Afternoon 3:20PM – MCG
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The old arch-rivals take centre stage on a Sunday afternoon. It isn’t as big a build-up as usual and that is purely because I think the expectation is that both of these teams will be bottom six in 2023. Nevertheless, plenty of surprises happen in football and it is always worth watching Hawthorn and Essendon games as you simply never know what is going to happen, and they hate each other’s guts.
WHERE THE HAWKS CAN WIN:
Defence might be the best form of attack in this game for the Hawks. The Essendon forward line outside of Peter Wright doesn’t strike fear into any team and if there is one position the Hawks are good at, it is their back six. If one of James Blanck or Sam Frost can hold Wright, the rest of the Hawks’ defence in James Sicily, Changkuoth Jiath, and Will Day will be able to intercept at will as I don’t think they will pay much respect to the likes of Menzie, Perkins, and Guelfi – and deservedly so. The best chance for the Hawks in this game is to lock it down and make it an arm wrestle.
WHERE THE BOMBERS CAN WIN:
The Bombers should be able to do whatever they like through the middle of the ground. This Hawthorn midfield group is one of the worst I have ever seen, headed by second-year midfielder Jai Newcombe and James Worpel (who the opposition probably wants to have the ball). The Bombers midfield includes the likes of Zach Merrett, Darcy Parish, Dylan Shiel, Andrew McGrath and the likes of Jake Stringer, Archie Perkins, Will Setterfield, and Mason Redman pushing through there. After years of getting bullied in the middle of the ground, the Bombers midfield have the opportunity to do the bullying with more experienced and bigger bodies. I think they will dominate in the midfield and that will be enough for the Bombers to kick a winning score.
TIP: Essendon to do it rather easily. Bombers by 32 points.
ST KILDA VS FREMANTLE DOCKERS – SUNDAY 4:40PM – MARVEL STADIUM
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The last game of the round pits Ross Lyon against his old club in Fremantle for the first time. Lyon didn’t leave the club on the best of terms so I am sure he will want to get the win over his old club. Both these teams have finals on the agenda in 2023 and anything else will be a failure. Let’s get into it.
WHERE THE SAINTS CAN WIN IT:
It is very hard to see the Saints winning this game on paper. I think the only way they will win is if their midfield gets on top and that means the likes of Jack Steele, Brad Crouch, Hunter Clarke, Marcus Windhager, and Jade Gresham are all going to have to have incredibly good nights. If they do the likes of Jack Higgins, Daniel Butler, and Jade Gresham will cause the Dockers’ small defenders some concerns. It is just very difficult to see them kicking a winning score.
WHERE THE DOCKERS CAN WIN IT:
I think the midfield battle is even but if anything Fremantle slightly get the edge with Andrew Brayshaw, Jaeger O’meara, Caleb Serong, and Will Brodie all being very strong in and under midfielders. I think with the absences of Max King, Jack Hayes, and Tim Membrey the Fremantle defenders will do as they please. The likes of Alex Pearce, Luke Ryan, and Heath Chapman will be able to intercept as they like as there is simply no aerial threat against them. The likes of Anthony Caminiti and Mitch Owens just aren’t going to cut it and I don’t think the Saints can kick enough goals. When you look at the other end of the ground the likes of Matt Taberner, Luke Jackson, and a majority forward fifty Nathan Fyfe will be good enough to kick a winning score.
TIP: This one could get ugly. Dockers by 47 points.
What do you think? Who are you tipping this weekend? Drop them in the comments and good luck!