Well, We promised you a dedicated AFL Betting segment each week and as Paul Roos would say, here it is! Hopefully, we will be quoting Shane Crawford’s “That’s what I’m talking about!” on Sunday after a few big wins. We will be providing prop bets for every game and bets on the H2H when we are confident. Let’s get cracking!
RICHMOND VS CARLTON – THURSDAY 7:20PM – MCG
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We don’t like a head to head bet in this game. I think the game is a very hard one to pick considering both teams have major outs positionally that can hurt their chances. Robbie Tarrant and Josh Gibcus are big outs for the Tigers considering the Blues boast two Coleman Medalists in Charlie Curnow and Harry McKay and Sam Walsh and Zac Williams are big outs for the Blues considering the additions of Tim Taranto and Jacob Hopper to the Tigers midfield. We do like some player prop bets here though.
TOM DE KONING ANYTIME GOAL SCORER – $2.10/2+ GOALS – $6.75/3+ GOALS – $29
Pretty keen on the young big man from the Blues to hit the scoreboard tomorrow night. The Tigers don’t have a match-up for him with Noah Balta and rookie Tylar Young occupying Charlie Curnow and Harry McKay. One of Nathan Broad or Dylan Grimes will have to play on De Koning when he goes forward and they are giving him either 8cm and 7kgs or 11cm and 14kgs. He could be the difference and there is clear value in this market.
ADAM CERRA 25+ DISPOSALS – $1.93/30+ DISPOSALS – $4
I think the 25+ disposal market for Cerra is like printing money. In his last two games against the Tigers, he has recorded 31 and 33 disposals and with the absence of Sam Walsh and Zac Williams, he should be given even more midfield time. He loves playing the Tigers and in the first eight games last season, he only recorded under twenty-five disposals twice while recording more than thirty disposals on three occasions. There is a clear edge in this market.
SHAI BOLTON 20+ DISPOSALS – $3
Bit riskier is this one but we are getting a decent price to find out. Bolton is expected to play through the midfield a lot more this season than he did in 2022 and in 2021 when he played majority midfield against Carlton he recorded twenty-five disposals. I think he will be the first rotation through that midfield when one of Hopper, Taranto, or Prestia needs a rest and we know he can find plenty of footy around the flanks anyway.
DUSTIN MARTIN 2+ GOALS – $2.20
The Tiger champion will spend a lot more time in the forward fifty this season and I don’t think the Blues have a matchup for him. He could easily kick a bag if the Tigers are dominating in the middle of the ground so if you are feeling lucky that is always an option as well.
GEELONG VS COLLINGWOOD – FRIDAY 7:40PM – MCG
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GEELONG AT THE LINE (11.5) looks like a pretty safe bet here. I don’t think the Pies’ forward line can kick a winning score against this Geelong defence without Jack Ginnivan who is probably the player who would have given them the biggest concerns. I think they will win by about five goals.
TOM STEWART 25+ DISPOSALS – $1.93
Stewart has recorded 25+ disposals twice out of the last four times these two teams have met and I think on a dry Melbourne night where he doesn’t really have a designated lockdown role, he can intercept at will and be the driving force when rebounding out of that back fifty. At close to even money there is a clear edge.
JORDAN DE GOEY 25+ DISPOSALS – $1.93
It is a similar story with De Goey. In two of their last three meetings, he has passed this mark twice and I think we are going to see a career-best season from De Goey. Similar to round one in 2017 from Dustin Martin, expect the troublesome Collingwood star to have near thirty and kick a couple of goals.
NORTH MELBOURNE VS WEST COAST – SATURDAY 1:45PM – MARVEL STADIUM
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WEST COAST H2H – $2 looks like good value here. Even though they were terrible last season the Eagles still have some (all but ageing) stars on their side in Luke Shuey, Tim Kelly, Jeremy McGovern, Dom Sheed, Andrew Gaff, Jack Darling, and Liam Ryan and that should be enough to get them over the line.
OSCAR ALLEN 2+ GOALS – $1.70/3+ GOALS – $3.15
It is hard to see Allen not hitting the scoreboard in a big way here. With the absence of Ben McKay the cupboard is bare for the North Melbourne key defenders and I think he will take advantage of it. He is a brilliant young forward and West Coast will get the ball in there enough for him to kick a few.
JAIDYN STEPHENSON 20+ DISPOSALS – $1.74
The last time he played the Eagles he recorded thirty-eight disposals and he is the type of player that the Eagles struggle to handle. He is very fast and he gets to the right spots and I just don’t think any of the Eagles midfielders or half-backs will be able to run with him on the spread which means he should be getting at least twenty disposals.
PORT ADELAIDE VS BRISBANE – SATURDAY 4:35PM – ADELAIDE OVAL
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BRISBANE H2H – $1.85 looks like one of the better bets of the opening round. The Power doesn’t have the defence to deal with the Brisbane firepower and bringing in an underdone Wines and Boak against this Lions’ midfield spells trouble. I think they will beat them and easily. It brings a couple of prop bets.
CONNOR ROZEE 25+ DISPOSALS – $1.70/30+ DISPOSALS – $3.15
I don’t think the Power will win but I think Rozee will play majority midfield and continue to be a shining light for the Power. In four of the last six games of last season, he recorded over twenty-five disposals and in half of those he recorded over thirty disposals. I think he will kick off 2023 where he ended last season and therefore there is an edge in this market.
CHARLIE CAMERON 2+ GOALS – $1.70/3+ GOALS – $3.30/4+ GOALS – $7.50
Stake according to the price here obviously. Cameron averaged two goals a game last season so essentially the bookmakers are giving us $1.70 to get his average against a Port Adelaide defence who don’t have a match-up for him. In his last four encounters with the Power he has had 4, 7, 8, and 1 scoring shots which means if he kicks straight on Saturday, we are winning. Think it is terrific value.
MELBOURNE VS WESTERN BULLDOGS – SATURDAY 7:25PM – MCG
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BULLDOGS 1-39 AT $3 Looks the play here to my eye. There hasn’t been a whole lot between the teams of recent years at stages and I think the Bulldogs are going to be the big improvers of 2023. I struggle to see Melbourne kicking a winning score providing the Bulldog small defenders do a decent job.
BAYLEY FRITSCH 2+ GOALS – $1.60/3+ GOALS – $2.90
Kind of hedging in a way here. If the Demons are to win Fritsch will have a big part o play in it. Like Charlie Cameron, he averaged two goals a game in 2022 so they are giving us $1.60 for him to have his average game. That is good enough for me. In is last four meetings with the Dogs he has kicked 4, 2, 6, and 2 goals. I can see that type of effort repeating itself here.
BAILEY DALE 25+ DISPOSALS – $1.70/30+ DISPOSALS – $3.50
I think the outside run will be a big problem for the Demons in this game and Dale is a huge cog in that machine for the Bulldogs. He averaged twenty-six disposals a game last season and has recorded above 25 disposals in three of his last four games against Melbourne whilst getting thirty once. I think there is value in both of these markets.
CALEB DANIEL 25+ DISPOSALS – $2/30+ DISPOSALS – $4
This is a bloke who just loves playing against the Demons. In his last three encounters with Melbourne, he has recorded 26, 37, and 34 disposals which on average is very high compared to what he usually does. Again, I think the outside run is a big problem for the Demons in this game and I think he will capitalise on it and rack them up around half back and the wing.
GOLD COAST VS SYDNEY – SATURDAY 8PM – HERITAGE BANK STADIUM
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I know the Suns have a good record against the Swans but the SYDNEY AT THE LINE (-7.5) – $1.90 looks like a fantastic bet. I just don’t really rate the Suns at all and the Swans looked in very good touch against a good side in Carlton and they will want to be making a statement in the opening round after that Grand Final disaster.
NOAH ANDERSON 25+ DISPOSALS – $1.50/30+ DISPOSALS – $2.85
Even in big defeats, Anderson racks them up and I think he will do similar here. In his last two meetings with the Swans, he has recorded thirty-four disposals in a forty-point win and twenty-eight disposals in an eighty-seven-point defeat. In the last eight rounds last season, he only went under the 25 disposal mark once and recorded thirty disposals on three occasions. He should only get better in 2023.
GREATER WESTERN SYDNEY VS ADELAIDE – SUNDAY 1:10PM – GIANTS STADIUM
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GWS AT THE LINE (-8.5) – $1.90 is a bet. The Giants will dominate this game through the middle of the ground and I think they will kick a winning score through an easy ball into their own forward fifty. The Likes of Kelly, Green, Perryman, Ward, Conilgio, and Whitfield should be too strong for the Crows. I’m backing a few of the Giants midfielders in the disposal markets.
LACHIE ASH 20+ DISPOSALS – $2.15/25+ DISPOSALS – $5.50/30+ DISPOSALS – $18
This is the prop bet I am most keen on in the opening round. Ash should get more midfield time in this Giants midfield considering the losses of Tim Taranto and Jacob Hopper and he has recorded 22 and 24 disposals in his two most recent outings against the Crows. He was very good in a practice game leading into this season and at the age of nearly 22 he should be ready to hit his peak. Stake accordingly but I’ll be investing heavily into the 20+ disposal market here.
JOSH KELLY 30+ DISPOSALS – $2.15
Kelly hasn’t played the Crows a whole lot for various reasons but in his last two encounters with them, he has got 27 disposals and 41 disposals. The forty-one came last year and the Crows’ midfield hasn’t changed a whole lot since then whereas the Giants’ midfield has and they will be expecting Kelly to shoulder a lot more of the load this season alongside Tom Green which should mean more of the ball. I think he is a Brownlow smoky and the Giants will be better than expected in 2023.
HARRY PERRYMAN 20+ DISPOSALS – $1.50/25+ DISPOSALS – $3.15
Perryman averaged twenty-one disposals a game last season so the $1.50 for twenty looks like a brilliant bet. He is another who will be expected to roll through the midfield more with the Giants’ losses and in his last two encounters with the Crows, he recorded twenty-one and twenty-six disposals which means the $3.15 for the 25+ market represents significant value.
HAWTHORN VS ESSENDON – SUNDAY 3:20PM – MCG
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Backing ESSENDON AT THE LINE (-8.5) – $1.90 AND ESSENDON 40+ AT $4.80 here. This Hawthorn midfield is one of the worst the competition has ever seen. Led By Jai Newcombe and James Worpel, it is hard to see them winning many games this season. Mitch Lewis also goes out so the lack of goal-kickers is a huge concern. Very confident the Bombers win here and win easily. I do think some of the Hawks players are good prop bets though.
JAI NEWCOMBE 25+ DISPOSALS – $1.96/30+ DISPOSALS – $4
Essendon doesn’t generally tag and this is the type of midfielder they generally struggle against. He is a big-bodied midfielder and Essendon doesn’t really have anyone that can match him in the contest besides maybe Jake Stringer, however, I think he is 50/50 to play and if he does, they will use him more forward. In his one full game against the Bombers, he recorded 28 disposals and I can see him doing even better than that in this game now he is more experienced. I think there is a clear edge in the 25+ market and a smaller edge in the 30+ market. Stake accordingly.
CHANGKUOTH JIATH 20+ DISPOSALS – $2.70
Found a small edge here on my stuff. In his last two games against the Bombers, he has recorded nineteen and twenty-two disposals which means he should be about $2.10 for 20+ disposals. He also starts off seasons very well. He recorded above twenty disposals in six of his first eight games in 2021 and in three of his first four games last season. Essendon isn’t known for defending overly well when they don’t have the ball and he will capitalise on that.
DYSON HEPPELL 20+ DISPOSALS – $1.70/25+ DISPOSALS – $4
Was just a bit shocked at this market. Heppell averaged just under twenty-two disposals a game last season and realistically should be closer to $1.40 than the current price for the 20+ market. In his last three games against the Hawks, he has got 24, 25, and 25 disposals which means he should also be about $2.30 for the 25+ market. He will play a similar role as he did last year and there is clear value in this market.
ST KILDA VS FREMANTLE – SUNDAY 4:40PM – MARVEL STADIUM
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FREMANTLE AT THE LINE (-10.5) AND FREMANTLE 40+ WINNING MARGIN – $4.90 look to be the bets here. The saints are without Max King, Tim Membrey, and Jack Hayes in their forward fifty and it is just hard to see them kicking a winning score even if they do get the midfield ascendancy. Up the other end, the Saints don’t have anyone to go with Luke Jackson and if Wilkie does go to him it opens up the door for Nathan Fyfe to have a clear mismatch. Fremantle will win this easily. I like a few prop bets for the men in Purple.
LUKE RYAN 25+ DISPOSALS – $2.55
The Fremantle defence doesn’t have too many concerns with the Saints’ attack and that will allow Luke Ryan to do what he likes in the defensive fifty and to rack them up. He recorded 32 disposals in this fixture last year and that was against a much more potent Saints forward line. He should be in the red and represents an edge.
HAYDEN YOUNG 25+ DISPOSALS – $2.20/30+ DISPOSALS – $5.50
These markets represent value. Young recorded 31 disposals early in the season against the Saints last year in a close loss and then recorded 23 disposals in a big win. I think the Saints will get enough ball into their forward fifty, I just don’t think they will score and that is why I am very keen on the rebounding Fremantle defenders to dominate the disposal count. Fremantle love Young having his hands on it as he is a brilliant user of the ball and I think he will top the disposal count on Sunday afternoon.
NATHAN FYFE 2+ GOALS – $1.80/3+ – $3.70/4+ – $8
I think Fyfe Will hit the scoreboard hard on Sunday. With Howard and Wilkie going to Taberner and Jackson, there just doesn’t look to be a matchup for Fyfe and if he kicks straight, you would think two should be a minimum. I think he should be closer to $1.40 for 2+ and about $2.50 for 3+ so there is a big edge here.
That will do for the weekly punting article punters! Let’s hope we can kick off the year on the right note. Any same-game multis will be added to my Twitter handle. Good luck!