We are back again with another week of AFL betting. The week started off poorly but did pick up a bit towards the end with Sunday being a profitable day. We go again this week after hopefully learning a bit about some teams and players from what was a brilliant season opening round. Let’s get into it!
CARLTON VS GEELONG – THURSDAY 7:20PM – MCG
I think CARLTON 1-39 – $3 looks the bet here. The Blues were solid against a good side in Richmond last Thursday night and I think the Cats without Tom Stewart and with an underdone Sam De Koning whilst still missing Jack Henry are very gettable if you can get on top in the midfield and I believe the Blues can, led by Patrick Cripps and George Hewett in there leading the way. Carlton are very good value at that price.
CHARLIE CURNOW 3+ GOALS – $2.60/4+ GOALS – $5.30
I think this might be the day when King Charles makes a statement. He kicked three against the Cats last year and that was when only Tom Stewart was out. This time there is no Jack Henry or Jake Kolodjashnij and I think that will mean a big bag for Charlie if the Blues can get some easy ball into their forward fifty which I think they will. He kicked three last week from limited opportunities and I don’t think the Geelong defence poses any bigger threat to stopping him.
ZAC TUOHY 20+ DISPOSALS – $1.50/25+ DISPOSALS – $3
He is like a fine wine Zac Tuohy and he started off the season brilliantly in round one gathering eighteen disposals and kicking two goals. He generally lifts against his old team and in his last two encounters with the Blues he has recorded twenty-four disposals. Including him for a goal could also be an option to beef up some multis.
BRISBANE VS MELBOURNE – FRIDAY 7:55PM – GABBA
There are no prop bets in this game but I do like the DEMONS H2H – $1.85 here. Melbourne have won four of their past five against the Lions and all their wins have been by fairly big margins. Melbourne looks like they are set for redemption after a failed 2022 and I think they will be very hard to beat over the first couple of months. The midfielders should get on top and that will be where the game is won.
COLLINGWOOD VS PORT ADELAIDE – SATURDAY 1:45PM – MCG
I don’t think there is any value in the head-to-head market but I think the main bet has to be for the TOTAL GAME POINTS OVER (+170.5). I think both teams will really test out their defensive counterparts and they both scored over 120 points last weekend which shows their scoring power. I think they will cover this line.
JAMIE ELLIOT 2+ GOALS – $1.97
I think the Pies’ small forward will wreak havoc and Elliot is the main one I’m backing in to have a good afternoon. He kicked two goals the last time these two teams played and I don’t think either team has changed a whole lot defensively since then, especially the Power. He will get a favourable match up and he should be cashing in and kicking a few goals.
BEAU MCCREERY 2+ GOALS – $5.40
This was one of the biggest edges I found over the weekend. McCreery kicked two goals in round one and has looked to have come back in as good a shape as I have seen him in. He was quiet the last time these two teams played but in the meeting before that he kicked three and was one of the best on ground. There is nobody to play on him here and I think he applies brilliant pressure and then kicks a few on the end of that hard work.
MITCH GEORGIADES 2+ GOALS – $3.50
Without Jeremy Howe and with both Todd Marshall and Charlie Dixon In the side the 192cm Georgiades should get a match-up against a much smaller man in this game and if he is ever going to fire up and claim a genuine spot in this 22 then this could be the game to do it. Away from home, against a Premiership contender, when you get a good matchup. It’s time Mitch. He should be kicking a couple.
ADELAIDE VS RICHMOND – SATURDAY 4:35PM – ADELAIDE OVAL
I think the Crows will put up a gallant effort here so RICHMOND 1-39 – $2.25 looks like the obvious bet. Adelaide are coming off a six-day break after playing in 34-degree temperatures and looked cooked in the second half against the Giants. The Tigers were running on top of the ground late against the Blues and I just think their forward line has too much potency about it for the Adelaide defence.
SHAI BOLTON 20+ DISPOSALS – $2.55
He burnt us last week but I’m backing up again here as I think internally the Tigers will be respecting a response from Bolton who was poor in round one. He has recorded twenty-three and twenty-four disposals the last two times these two teams have met and he has no obvious match-up who can stop him in either the Crows’ midfield or defence. I think he will have a big afternoon.
JACK REIWOLDT 2+ GOALS – $2/3+ GOALS – $4.40/4+ GOALS – $11
I couldn’t believe the Tigers champion was even money to slot two goals. I think Jordan Butts will be the man they send to Reiwoldt again and he has kicked five and then two goals on him in their last two outings. He played on a much better defender last week and was held well but I think he will bounce back this week and he has every chance to kick a bag if the Tigers can get it in there with ease.
WESTERN BULLDOGS VS ST KILDA – SATURDAY 7:25PM – MARVEL STADIUM
I think the best value all round might be the BULLDOGS AT THE LINE (-12.5) – $1.90. They have smashed the Saints in their few recent outings against each other and with the ever-mounting injury list I just can’t see how the Saints’ midfield or defence can contain the Bulldogs. I think they will win and win easily.
MARCUS BONTEMPELLI 25+ DISPOSALS – $1.75/30+ – $3.35
Bontempelli has a very good record against the Saints, recording thirty-four and twenty-six disposals to go along with two goals in their most recent two outings. I thought he was very good against Melbourne in the opening round when gathering twenty-five disposals and I think he will do that again here. He will be too big and too strong for the Saints’ midfield. I am also backing him to have thirty due to the fact he has done it against this team recently and also factoring in that they have been smashed with injuries.
BAILEY DALE 25+ DISPOSALS – $1.73/30+ DISPOSALS – $3.50
Dale has recorded thirty or more disposals in his most recent meetings with the Saints and I think he is a player who drastically improves when he plays under the roof. He was poor in round one but I think with the Saints’ injuries the Dogs will be able to get it in the hands of the good ball users and that is exactly what he is.
JAMARRA UGLE-HAGAN 2+ GOALS – $1.87/3+ GOALS – $3.75
Ugle-Hagan was clearly the best of the Bulldogs forwards last week when kicking 1.3 for the game. If he took his opportunities, he would have kicked three last week and been half that quote here. He kicked three against the Saints the last time he played them and their defence is even more depleted now. I think he kicks a decent little bag here.
FREMANTLE VS NORTH MELBOURNE – SATURDAY 7:30PM – OPTUS STADIUM
Only having the one bet in this game and that is on SAM SWITKOWSKI 2+ GOALS – $3. The Fremantle small only played fourteen games last year but going by his round one effort I think he has had a good pre-season. He kicked 1.2 to go along with sixteen disposals last week and he had already kicked two the last time he played the Kangaroos before being subbed off. I think his smarts around the ground and around the goals will be the undoing of the inexperienced North Melbourne defence and I think he will kick a couple and should be closer to $2.
SYDNEY VS HAWTHORN – SUNDAY 1:10PM – SCG
I don’t think there is any value in the margin or Head to Head betting in this game and we are only having the two bets. They are for CALLUM MILLS 25+ DISPOSALS – $1.97/30+ DISPOSALS – $4. Mills didn’t do a whole lot in round one and was well held against a good Suns midfield but he has historically loved playing against the Hawks, recording 37 and 33 disposals in their last two meetings. Based on that the $4 is insane overs. I love it when he plays at home from a betting perspective as well.
ESSENDON VS GOLD COAST – SUNDAY 3:20PM – MARVEL STADIUM
I don’t like any of the value Head to Head in this game as I think it might be a close one. I have narrowed in on the Prop betting though and there is a few that I like.
MASON REDMAN 20+ DISPOSALS – $1.60/25+ – $2.90/30+ – $6
I think the man they call ‘Red Dog’ is well overs in these markets. Redman averaged twenty-one disposals a game last season so we are basically getting $1.60 for him to underperform against an untrustworthy Gold Coast outfit. In his last two games against the Suns, he has recorded 34 and 30 disposals which tells me the 25+ and 30+ lines are also very good value. He recorded twenty-four in round one and I expect the ball to be down the Bombers’ defensive fifty a bit more on Sunday which will mean he gets more of the footy.
JORDAN RIDLEY 20+ DISPOSALS – $1.80/25+ DISPOSALS – $3.50
Essendon doesn’t have to be beaten soundly for Ridley to get plenty of the ball and that’s why I like the bet here. He has recorded over twenty-four disposals in his last two outings against the Suns and he was very well last week against the Hawks in a ten-goal win when getting Twenty disposals. I think the Bombers will find the ball back there a bit more this week and that will mean more of the ball for him. There is a big edge in this market.
NOAH ANDERSON 25+ DISPOSALS – $1.70
Anderson was good in round one and I think he can repeat that here against a weaker midfield than what he faced against the Swans. I think the Suns can win plenty of contested balls in this game and the likes of Miller, Anderson, and Rowell will lead the charge. He historically goes well at Marvel and I think this is a pretty safe bet. Expect a response from the Gold Coast midfield this weekend.
WEST COAST VS GWS – SUNDAY 4:40PM – OPTUS STADIUM
Ending the week here on a pretty quiet note. There are no bets I like here. I think it is a 50/50 game and that is shown by the odds. I think the Giants will sneak over the line for what it is worth.
Alright, Punters, those are my bets for this week! Good Luck and Gamble Responsibly over the weekend!