G’day, Legends we are back for the Round 2 AFL Preview. We had a pretty average week of tipping in Round one but that happens at the start of most seasons. We have hopefully learnt a bit about certain teams over the first round of football and hopefully this week we can go nine from nine, bearing in mind we are tipping a couple of upsets. Let’s get into it.
CARLTON VS GEELONG – THURSDAY NIGHT 7:20PM – MCG
Both Carlton and Geelong started the year poorly. Carlton were less than impressive in a draw in the season opener against Richmond and Geelong was overrun by a hungry Collingwood outfit on Friday night. Geelong have won four of the last five encounters with the Blues but I think that might change on Thursday night.
WHERE CARLTON CAN WIN:
I think Carlton can get the Cats in multiple areas throughout the game. With the ever-growing chance that Mark Blicavs has to go down back to support the inexperienced Geelong defenders against both Charlie Curnow and Harry McKay, aside from Patrick Dangerfield the Geelong midfield has no size about it and lacks depth throughout it. Patrick Cripps is the best big-bodied midfielder in football and I think he will prove a handful for the Cats as they have no match-up for him and nobody that can remotely match him when it comes to strength bar Dangerfield, and if they go head to head I would be backing Cripps in to beat him. George Hewett carried on his fantastic form from 2022 when recording 28 disposals in round one and he is big, strong, and brilliant when it comes to having his head over the ball. Matt Kennedy is another big midfielder (191cm) who can dominate the contested ball and I don’t think the likes of Guthrie, Parfitt, Atkins, and Bruhn will be able to match them in there. I think the Blues will get on top in the middle of the ground which will allow the twin towers up forward to kick a winning score.
WHERE GEELONG CAN WIN:
Geelong can win this game by getting some quick ball into their forward fifty and letting their four-pronged forward group of Jeremy Cameron, Tom Hawkins, Gary Rohan, and Ollie Henry go to work. For all the Cats did wrong in the second half last week, the one thing they did was execute their opportunities going forward, getting a scoring shot 56% of the time they went in there which was one of the highest of the round. The pressure will be on Carlton interceptor Mitch McGovern to improve off his round one effort but he will not find it easy against the likes of Gary Rohan and Ollie Henry who kicked two each last week. Lewis Young also has his work cut out for him on Coleman Medallist Jeremy Cameron but to put it quite simply, if the Geelong midfield can get any easy ball into their forward fifty, I don’t think the Blues’ defence will be able to stop them. The midfield battle will be where it is won and lost.
TIP: I am running with the upset here. Carlton by fourteen points at a cold MCG.
BRISBANE VS MELBOURNE – FRIDAY NIGHT 7:55PM – GABBA
This instantly became a massive game when the Lions were comprehensively beaten by Port Adelaide in round one. Brisbane lost the uncontested possession count by 127 which tells me they just didn’t turn up to play at the Adelaide Oval. Considering they suffered another tough finals exit late in September last year it is worrying, to say the least. This is now a must-win game for them. On the flip side of that coin, the Demons were fantastic when beating the Bulldogs by fifty points. They won all the key moments and the most impressive thing is that they scored from half of their forward fifty entries which is a drastic improvement in 2022.
WHERE BRISBANE CAN WIN:
For Brisbane to win this game they need to essentially replicate what they did in the Semi Final last year but even on that night, I think Melbourne in some ways threw the game away. Jarrod Berry kept Clayton Oliver very quiet (21 disposals) whilst recording 26 himself and the likes of Viney and Brayshaw were also quiet. Eric Hipwood needs to hit the scoreboard like he did that night when he kicked four goals and the likes of McStay and Fort also made life difficult for the Demons. That is now Gunston and Daniher that replace them which is probably an upgrade and the only way they win this game is to get something like the eight goals that the three forwards combined for and to hope the likes of Cameron, Bailey, and McCarthy can also combine for five or six like they did that night. Brisbane should also want it more than the Demons which sometimes can account for a lot in football.
WHERE MELBOURNE CAN WIN:
The Demons, aside from the Semi Final last year have had the wood on Brisbane winning four out of their last five meetings and in most of those games they were just smashed in the contested ball with the likes of Petracca, Oliver, and Brayshaw doing as they please. Those three were excellent in round one against the Bulldogs and with the recruit of Brodie Grundy they are just getting silver service for the entirety of games which is going to make it very hard for other midfielders to stop them. Especially a Brisbane team who realistically only has one defensively-minded midfielder and that is Jarrod Berry who was very poor last week. I think the Demons can get on top of the Brisbane midfield again here and the weight of numbers will just prove too much for the Lions as it has in the past.
TIP: Melbourne will beat a gallant Lions outfit that will be much improved. Melbourne by 18 points.
COLLINGWOOD VS PORT ADELAIDE – SATURDAY 1:45PM – MCG
Looking at this game ahead of the season and you would have shrugged your shoulders and gone ‘meh’. Now after the Power beat a Brisbane outfit that some were tipping for the Premiership by 54 points, this game shapes up to be a very good one as they travel down to the MCG to take on a Collingwood outfit that smashed the reigning premiers in the second half last week. If the Power can replicate that effort, it will be a very close game. It will be a fiery battle of the prison bars.
WHERE COLLINGWOOD CAN WIN:
The small forwards and goal-kicking midfielders of the Pies might hold the key to whether they can kick a winning score. Last week the likes of Bobby Hill, Jordan De Goey, Tom Mitchell, and Beau McCreery combined for ten goals and they will probably need a similar output from those types to kick a winning score again here. Luckily for the Magpies, the weakest position in the Port Adelaide team is their back six and their small defenders. Aside from Darcy Byrne-Jones, they don’t really have a small defender that can lock down with the likes of Ryan Burton and Dan Houston being very offensively minded. That leaves two of Bobby Hill, Jamie Elliot, or Beau McCreery with favourable matchups. In this fixture last season Jack Ginnivan, Jordan De Goey, Jamie Elliot, and Will Hoskin-Elliot combined for nine goals and the worry for the Power is that happening again.
WHERE PORT ADELAIDE CAN WIN:
With Jeremy Howe coming out of the Collingwood backline, it opens up some opportunities for the likes of Todd Marshall, Charlie Dixon, and Mitch Georgiades to get some one on ones. Those three combined for eight goals last week against the Lions and Lachie Jones also kicked three goals which brought the tally to eleven goals from their four tallest forwards which is a brilliant result. I think they are going to get similar matchups this weekend and if the Pies are too conscious of that it might even open up some opportunities for the smaller forwards in Junior Rioli who kicked three last week and Orazio Fantasia who will be better for the run. If they can halve the midfield the Port Adelaide forward line will give Collingwood plenty to worry about.
TIP: The Magpies are hard to beat at the MCG. Collingwood by thirteen points.
ADELAIDE VS RICHMOND – SATURDAY 4:35PM – ADELAIDE OVAL
Neither of these teams opened up the season how they would have liked but there were plenty of positives to take out of both games from the respective sides. There is no love lost between these two teams after the 2017 Grand Final and the results since then have been very even. Expect a high scoring encounter if the last two meetings are anything to go by.
WHERE ADELAIDE CAN WIN:
The inside midfielders of the Crows have been a thorn in the Tigers’ sides over the past few seasons with the likes of Rory Laird, Ben Keays, and Rory Sloane regularly getting close to thirty disposals a game in each of their contests. The Tigers were better in the clearance and contested ball battle against the Blues last week with the recent additions of Tim Taranto and Jacob Hopper but I still feel like it is an area where you can get the Tigers. In the last encounter, the two teams had this led to the Crows’ key forwards in Taylor Walker and Elliot Himmelberg combining for nine goals. The Tigers will be stressing on the health of Full Back Robbie Tarrant but if he isn’t back in time the key forwards of the Crows might get off the chain as the intercept defenders in Nick Vlastuin and Nathan Broad will have to pay more attention to the Crows smalls in Josh Rachele and Izak Rankine than they did against the Blues.
WHERE RICHMOND CAN WIN:
If the Tigers can halve the midfield like they did last week it is hard to see the back six of the Crows handling it as well as Carlton did, and even if they do you would assume that the Tigers will take more of their opportunities going forward than they did against the Blues. Tom Lynch hit form in the second half against the Blues and if he is in that sort of attitude on Saturday afternoon, I don’t think the Crows can handle him and if they do try and double and triple team him the Tigers are too potent when going forward with the likes of Jack Reiwoldt, Shai Bolton, and Dustin Martin and I don’t think the Crows have a match up for either Martin or Bolton. If they want to play Doedee on either of them then Reiwoldt has a very favourable matchup and can kick a bag. I think the Tigers’ potency will be the difference.
TIP: I think the Crows will push the Tigers but the men from Punt Road will be too good. Richmond by eighteen points.
WESTERN BULLDOGS VS ST KILDA – SATURDAY 7:25PM – MARVEL STADIUM
These two teams couldn’t have had different Round One experiences. The Bulldogs looked terrible and were beaten comfortably against the Demons whilst an undermanned Saints outfit rolled over the Dockers at Marvel Stadium without any of their three key forwards and a host of midfielders. The issue for the Saints is that the injuries keep coming with Jimmy Webster and Jack Bytel both missing. Most people are expecting the Dogs to bounce back but I don’t think the Saints will make it easy for them.
WHERE THE BULLDOGS CAN WIN:
With the Saints missing the likes of Jack Billings, Zak Jones, Seb Ross, and Nick Coffield going through their midfield mix it seems as though there will be too much left on the rest of the Saints’ midfield considering they are facing one of the best midfields in the competition with the likes of Marcus Bontempelli, Jack Macrae, Tom Liberatore, Bailey Smith, and Adam Treloar rolling through it. In their last two meetings against each other, the Bulldogs have won convincingly and they have won the clearance battle by thirteen and twenty respectively. I think that probably happens again here and if they get speed on the ball into their forward fifty the like of Aaron Naughton, Sam Darcy, and Jamarra Ugle-Hagan will be in for a big night.
WHERE THE SAINTS CAN WIN:
The only way the Saints can win this game is to bring even better pressure than they did against the Dockers last week to force the Bulldogs into turnovers which obviously can give them chances to score. In all likelihood, even that won’t be enough and it is hard to see this depleted Saints outfit containing the Dogs’ scoring capabilities from even their own midfielder in Bontempelli and Smith. The Saints can win this game by bringing an insane amount of pressure but it’s hard to see it happening for four quarters.
TIP: I think the Bulldogs bounce back hard here and make a statement. Bulldogs by eight goals.
FREMANTLE VS NORTH MELBOURNE – SATURDAY 7:30PM – OPTUS STADIUM
Fremantle were the big losers of the opening round of the season, losing to a depleted St Kilda outfit at Marvel Stadium. The Saints were missing nearly half of their best 22 so it really was a horrible display and at some stages, Fremantle looked like they had only picked up the game of football a week ago. North Melbourne controlled the game for the majority against the Eagles and survived a late scare to win by five points. Travelling to Western Australia is obviously a different ball game though.
WHERE FREMANTLE CAN WIN:
The big-bodied midfielders of the Dockers will look to bully the younger North Melbourne cohort as they have in recent seasons. In their last two encounters, Fremantle has won the clearance battle by thirteen and sixteen respectively and not much has changed over the space of a pre-season. The likes of Andrew Brayshaw and Will Brodie had their colours lowered in round one but it is very rare that this will happen in consecutive weeks. I expect the likes of Jaeger O’Meara and Nathan Fyfe to also be better for the run. If they do win the midfield battle I don’t think a North Melbourne defence missing Ben McKay will be able to contain the Dockers.
WHERE NORTH MELBOURNE CAN WIN:
The big caveat on the Fremantle midfield assumedly getting on top is just how much the North Melbourne midfielders have improved. The North Melbourne midfield was terrific in round one and it was led by Luke Davies-Uniacke who had thirty-two disposals along with a goal and ten clearances and Jy Simpkin who had twenty-five disposals along with seven clearances. If they can repeat that type of effort out West and a few of the other midfielders like Hugh Greenwood, Ben Cunnington, and Will Phillips can come along for the ride then this is where their opportunity lies in terms of winning this game. Neither side has a forward line that is particularly dangerous or the midfield skill to give their forwards an easy ball so I think the midfield battle will decide this one.
TIP: It is hard to tip against the Dockers at home. North will put in a gallant effort and fall narrowly short. Fremantle by fourteen points.
SYDNEY VS HAWTHORN – SUNDAY 1:10PM – SCG
The swans recorded a solid nine-goal win over a very poor Gold Coast outfit in round one whilst the Hawks were humiliated in front of a big MCG crowd on Sunday afternoon against Essendon when losing by essentially ten goals. It is hard to imagine the Hawks winning this one but we will delve into it anyway!
WHERE SYDNEY CAN WIN:
I think Sydney have the Hawks covered in most parts of the ground but like most teams this season, their midfield should be beating up on Hawthorn. A midfield that includes the likes of Luke Parker, Callum Mills, Isaac Heeney, Chad Warner, and Errol Gulden is one of the best in the competition and on the flip side Hawthorn has essentially Jai Newcombe and James Worpel and then nobody else which makes it one of the worst midfields I have seen in my time following football. I think the floodgates will open pretty quickly in this game and that Sydney will win easily.
WHERE THE HAWKS CAN WIN:
I think the only chance Hawthorn have of winning this game is to turn defence into attack with the absence of Lance Franklin. Without him the Sydney forward line is going to be led by Logan McDonald and Hayden McLean with the chance of Sam Reid coming in for Franklin. Hawthorn’s intercept defenders like James Sicily and Will Day might be able to curtail the Swans’ attacking forays but this will only help if the Hawthorn midfield doesn’t allow easy ball into their opposing forward fifty like they did last week. I think the Hawthorn defence is clearly the best part of their 22 and it might keep them in this game for a while.
TIP: I think Sydney are just too good for the Hawks. They will win by about ten goals.
ESSENDON VS GOLD COAST – SUNDAY 3:20PM – MARVEL STADIUM
One of these teams is coming in with newfound confidence after a big win in round one and the other is coming off a horrible loss. The Bombers were fantastic against the Hawks and the Suns couldn’t have been much worse against the Swans. I think these two teams are evenly matched and it shapes up to be a must-win game for both clubs if they have the aspirations of playing finals.
WHERE THE BOMBERS CAN WIN:
The Bombers can win this game by doing exactly what they did against Hawthorn and that is to make the ground wide and just dominate the game by having the ball in their hands. They had thirty more uncontested possessions than the Hawks last Sunday and their outside runners in Parish, Redman, Martin, and Langford were all very good. They will need to replicate this week against the Suns as they are a team who just doesn’t work hard enough when they don’t have the ball. Make it difficult for them and control possession and the dam wall will eventually overflow and the Essendon smalls in Davey, Perkins, Menzie, and Mcdonald-Tipungwuti will get on top of the Suns’ defence as none of their small defenders are very accountable. The last two times these two teams have met each other the Bombers have won easily and won the uncontested possession count by forty and one hundred respectively. That is the key to victory again here.
WHERE THE SUNS CAN WIN:
I think the core inside group of the Suns’ midfield group is better and generally a lot tougher than the Bombers and that is where they can gain some ascendancy in this game. Even in a big loss last week the Suns still won the clearance battle with the likes of Miller, Anderson, Swallow, and Rowell being very good on the inside. The Bombers’ midfield group was better in round one but personally, I think they played against witches’ hats so I am not sure how much to take from it. If they do dominate the contested ball, it will give their key forwards Ben King, Mabior Chol, and Levi Casboult the chance to stretch what is an undersized Essendon defence.
TIP: Hardest game of the round to pick. I think the Bombers at home will scrape in by under a goal.
WEST COAST VS GWS – SUNDAY 4:40PM – OPTUS STAIDUM
The Giants were very tough when coming from behind in hot conditions to beat the Crows and the Eagles suffered an agonisingly close loss against the Kangaroos at Marvel Stadium. The Giants are coming off a six-day break and are without Har
ry Perryman and Josh Kelly and I don’t think the Eagles will have a better chance of getting a win in the early part of the season.
WHERE THE EAGLES CAN WIN:
It is quite simple how the Eagles can win and that is to just get tougher around the contest. They were monstered around the stoppages and in the contested possession against a young North Melbourne midfield and that needs to change this week. Outside of Luke Shuey, the cupboard was bare in terms of help as the likes of Dom Sheed, Tim Kelly, and Andrew Gaff all had their colours lowered. The improvement needs to come from those three players or else I don’t think the Eagles can win a game this season. It was incredibly disappointing and there needs to be a response. If they can break even in the centre the Eagles still have a forward line capable of kicking a big score.
WHERE THE GIANTS CAN WIN:
The game will be won and lost in the midfield with both sides cancelling each other out at respective ends and the likes of Tom Green and Stephen Coniglio are going to have to do exactly what they did last week in order for the Giants to win. Green had thirty-seven disposals and Conilgio had thirty-two disposals and both of them had eight clearances and kicked a goal. The likes of Callan Ward, Finn Callaghan, Lachie Ash, and even Toby Greene are going to get more midfield minutes and they just need to compete like they did last week. Whoever gets on top in the midfield will win this game.
TIP: I just don’t trust the Eagles. I think the Giants will win in a close one by two goals with the likes of Green, Coniglio, and Ward being the catalyst again.
Who are you tipping in Round 2? Comment Below!