G’day Legends! Didn’t we bounce back in a big way last weekend after a horror round-one effort with our bets? Charlie Curnow was a big highlight. We go again this week and hopefully, we can keep the good times rolling with the AFL bets!
WESTERN BULLDOGS VS BRISBANE – THURSDAY 7.20PM – MARVEL STADIUM
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We don’t want to bet into the H2H or line margins on this game. I think Brisbane will win but at $1.40 there is no value to be found. The same can be said for the line markets. We do like a few prop bets though.
HUGH MCCLUGGAGE 25+ DISPOSALS – $2.12
In his last two games against the Bulldogs McCluggage has surpassed the twenty-five disposal mark and even though he has been somewhat poor this season I think he can bounce back here. He will appreciate playing under the roof and considering he has beaten this mark in his last two games against the Dogs he should be around that $1.70 mark. There is an edge here.
CONOR MCKENNA 20+ DISPOSALS – $2.55
McKenna will take full advantage of the Bulldogs’ lack of forward pressure in this game. The Dogs simply haven’t pressured enough or run defensively at the start of the season and if they don’t do that on Thursday McKenna will be the man who benefits from it most. The Lions will want to get the ball in his hands as he provides run and has a penetrating kick and he hit this mark in round one. He should be under $2 so there is an edge.
BAILEY SMITH ANYTIME GOALSCORER – $2.40
Smith is a midfielder who gets forward and kicks goals and I think he can do that again here. He has kicked four goals in his last two meetings with the Lions and the likes of Neale and Dunkley aren’t the greatest defensive runners which could open up scoring opportunities for him. He should be around the $2 mark.
RICHMOND VS COLLINGWOOD – FRIDAY 7.50PM – MCG
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Like the Thursday night game, I don’t like the H2H or line margin betting here. I concede that Collingwood should win but the Tigers still have plenty of threats forward of the ball so the $1.47 is no value. Will be investing heavily into the prop betting though.
TOM MITCHELL 25+ DISPOSALS – $1.74/30+ – $3.30/35+ – $8
Richmond have never sent a tag to Mitchell and I can’t see that changing on Friday night. In his last three games against Richmond, he has recorded 36, 37, and 32 disposals which have the current odds at all of the markets I’m betting into as well over the odds. The Tigers don’t tag and we saw a much better performance from Mitchell in round two when recording twenty-eight disposals. I think he can build off that and have a big day in a game that the Pies should win.
TAYLOR ADAMS 25+ DISPOSALS – $1.74/25+ DISPOSALS – $3.80
Adams has recorded over thirty disposals in his last two matches with the Tigers and I think he can get over the twenty-five mark here. With the likely absences of Dustin Martin and Jacob Hopper, the inside midfield rotation takes a big hit and I think the Magpie midfielders can take advantage of that. He will win plenty of it at the coal face and be hard to stop in the contest.
SHAI BOLTON 20+ DISPOSALS – $2.55
Bolton has a terrific record against the Magpies hitting this mark the last two times he has played them and unlike Carlton and Adelaide,
I don’t think he will receive too much attention when he runs through the midfield. He loves the wet conditions so if the rain comes it won’t stop him and I think he is the type of player Collingwood struggle to handle.
JACK GRAHAM 20+ DISPOSALS – $2.85/25+ DISPOSALS – $9.20
Graham has had a good start to the season and he historically plays very well against the Pies recording 23 and 30 disposals in his last two games against them. I am just hoping he doesn’t tag the likes of Daicos but the Tigers don’t generally tag which means he will be the link man again. He generally has big second halves as his fitness base is fantastic and I think they’ll find it hard to stop him on Friday night.
HAWTHORN VS NORTH MELBOURNE – SATURDAY 1.45PM – UTAS STADIUM
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The prop betting looks very skinny here with the likes of Luke Davies-Uniacke and Jack Zeibell being at the right price. I think HAWTHORN 1-39 – $3 looks like the play. They had their chances to make the game a lot closer than it read on the scoreboard last week against the Swans and I think North got lucky over in the West. Jy Simpkin is a big out and the Hawks are going to welcome a couple back. I think they are over the odds and I’m happy to back them.
GWS VS CARLTON – SATURDAY 4.35PM – GIANTS STADIUM
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I don’t like the H2H or margin betting in this game. I think the play here is for the TOTAL GAME POINTS OVER (+170.5) – $1.88. Both defences might be found out by the small forwards of the opposing teams and they both have a key forward who is in terrific form in Charlie Curnow and Jesse Hogan. I do like some prop bets here.
MATT KENNEDY 25+ DISPOSALS – $1.90
The Blues are unsure whether Hewett comes back this week and if he doesn’t I think Kennedy will cover this mark again like he did last week against a stronger side in the Cats. The Giants midfield doesn’t bat as deep as it once did and he has a very good record against his old side and I think it will continue here.
MATT OWIES 2+ GOALS – $3.40/3+ – $9.75/4+ – $34
I said in the round preview that I thought the Blues small forward might wreak havoc and I think this guy can here. In his last two outings against the Giants he has had six scoring shots and I think his confidence will be high coming off three goals last week against the reigning premiers. He is hungry around the goals and that is what us punters love when betting into goal markets. I think he can get off the chain and repeat last week.
COREY DURDIN 2+ GOALS – $4.50/3+ – $16/4+ – $67
Durdin is the other Carlton small I think can have a big afternoon. He has kicked at least one goal against the Giants in his last three games against the Giants and he has had three scoring shots on multiple occasions. If he can kick straight and the Giants’ defence focuses more on the likes of Silvagni and Owies, Durdin could be the beneficiary. He is a big price for 2+ goals and obviously stake accordingly.
TOBY GREENE 3+ GOALS – $2.50/4+ GOALS – $5.20
The Giants superstar has a very good record against the Blues and they don’t have an obvious match-up for him which spells trouble for Carlton. Greene has had seventeen scoring shots in his last four outings against the Blues and has kicked three or more goals in half of those games. He has hit the mark in both games this season and he gets a mismatch against this Carlton team regardless of who they play on him.
ST KILDA VS ESSENDON – SATURDAY 7.25PM – MCG
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With the outs the saints have I was shocked to see the Bombers as the outsiders in this game. ESSENDON H2H – $2.18 looks the bet here. The Bombers have a much more settled team and have been impressive in the opening two rounds. I think they will get on top in the middle and that will be where the game is won and lost. I’m hoping it’s a night for the small forwards.
JACK HIGGINS 2+ GOALS – $2.50/3+ GOALS – $6
Higgins has kicked three and two goals respectively in his last two outings against the Bombers and I think they will target him plenty on Saturday night. He has started the season off well and outside of Kelly (who I think might go to Gresham) the Bombers don’t have much accountability from their small defenders. It might be a wet night at the MCG and I think he will relish the conditions.
JYE MENZIE 2+ GOALS – $3.80/3+ GOALS – $11
I was shocked to see him at this price. He has kicked two goals in both games this season and we are getting $3.80 for him to do it again against an undermanned Saints outfit? Sign me in. He had three scoring shots in round one and he is a sharpshooter. I think if he gets his chances, he will slot them and the Saints’ defence will have their hands full dealing with Jones, Weideman, Perkins, and Stringer which will allow him to create some scoring opportunities.
ADELAIDE VS PORT ADELAIDE – SATURDAY 7.30PM – ADELAIDE OVAL
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I don’t think there is any value around in the H2H or line betting but I think it will be a high-scoring game and that is why the TOTAL POINTS OVER (+170.5) – $1.88 looks the bet. Both sides can leak heavily and I don’t think that will be any different here. I’m backing in the forwards to kick a few bags.
TODD MARSHALL 3+ GOALS – $2.50/4+ GOALS – $5.20
Marshall has recorded three, four, and five goals in the last three showdowns and I think he gets the second defender with the form Dixon is in and he will cash in here. He is a beautiful set shot so he doesn’t need many opportunities and you can’t help but think he will get enough opportunity to have a big night and drag the Power over the line.
ORAZIO FANTASIA 2+ GOALS – $2.80/3+ GOALS – $7.50
Fantasia hasn’t had much time on the ground so far this season as he had a limited pre-season. He had three scoring shots in each of those games (has missed a lot) but I can’t help but feel like this will be the game where he really ramps up his TOG percentage to a level where he can kick a few. Adelaide doesn’t have a match-up for him and he only needs to kick straight to be kicking at least a couple of goals.
IZAK RANKINE 2+ GOALS – $2.80/3+ GOALS – $4.70
Rankine has it the two-goal mark in each of his last two meetings with the Power and he has had ten scoring shots in the opening two games of the season. He only needs to kick a bit straighter to be covering this bet with ease. He might be worth a little dabble at the four and five-goal markets as well.
GOLD COAST VS GEELONG – SUNDAY 1.10PM – HERITAGE BANK STADIUM
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I want to leave this game completely alone. Geelong should win but it would not shock to see Gold Coast push them right to the wire. The disposal and goal scorer markets have no value in them.
MELBOURNE VS SYDNEY – SUNDAY 3.20PM – MCG
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I don’t think there is much value in the H2H or line markets but I do think it will be a low-scoring game so the UNDER TOTAL POINTS (-169.5) – $1.88 looks the play. The last three times these two teams have met each other it has been a very contested and low-scoring battle with them not getting near this current line so I’m happy to play into this market. There are no prop bets in this game as the inside midfielders and small forwards have been found in their respective disposal and goal markets.
FREMANTLE VS WEST COAST – SUNDAY 5.20PM – OPTUS STADIUM
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Yet again I don’t think there is any value in the H2H or line betting. I am keen on a couple of prop bets for some of the Dockers’ inside midfielders though.
WILL BRODIE 25+ DISPOSALS – $2
Brodie is the prototype of what the Eagles struggle to play against which is a big-bodied, hard-nosed inside midfielder. He proved this when recording twenty-eight disposals against them last year. He has started the year off poorly like most of the Dockers have but this is his chance to bully around a weak midfield and I think he can do it with relative ease.
JAEGER O’MEARA 25+ DISPOSALS – $3.20
I thought O’Meara was very good against the Kangaroos when recording twenty disposals and kicking two goals and I think he will only improve this week. He has a good historical record against the Eagles and I think he will want to endear himself to his new supporters and what better time to do that than in the local showdown? He is a contested ball beast and the opposition doesn’t have many of those.
Those are my bets for this weekend! What is your best bet for this weekend? Good Luck and as always Gamble Responsibly – Chances Are You Are About To Lose.