G’day, legends! It was an improved week of tipping in Round Two tipping 6/9 and hopefully, we can build off that over the course of the next few rounds. We got most of the 50/50 games (at least we thought they were 50/50) but the Saturday night games cost us a very good week. We will bounce into Round Three of the AFL full of confidence and analyse where your team can win and lose!
WESTERN BULLDOGS VS BRISBANE – THURSDAY 7.20PM – MARVEL STADIUM
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The Bulldogs come into this game off two horrible losses against Melbourne and St Kilda and this is now a must-win game for them against their old teammate Josh Dunkley. Brisbane have had an even start to the season, getting comprehensively beaten by Port Adelaide before bouncing back at home against the Demons.
WHERE THE BULLDOGS CAN WIN:
The area the Lions look the most vulnerable in this game is in defence. Melbourne and Port Adelaide have shown in the first two rounds that you can score quickly against them with both of those teams kicking six goals in a quarter against them and in most cases it has been the key forwards that have done the damage. Todd Marshall, Charlie Dixon, and Lachie Jones combined for ten goals against them in round one and Ben Brown kicked four against them last week from limited opportunities. The Bulldogs possess a three-pronged threat with Aaron Naughton, Jamarra Ugle-Hagan, and Sam Darcy in the forward fifty and if the midfield can get them enough ball to them they can cause the Lions’ defence some big concerns under the roof at Marvel.
WHERE BRISBANE CAN WIN:
On the flip side of that occasion, I think Brisbane can turn defence into attack very quickly with the Bulldogs’ lack of small forwards to put pressure on the defensive exit. The worry was that with such a big forward line it would exit out of there very easily and that has been the case with the Dogs only laying seventeen tackles inside forward fifty from two games. The Lions have the tools to really pounce on that with the likes of Daniel Rich, Conor McKenna, Dayne Zorko, and now Cam Rayner running it out of defence. If the Dogs aren’t pressuring when the ball hits the ground in their forward fifty Brisbane will get plenty of easy ball into their forward fifty and the likes of Joe Daniher, Eric Hipwood, Jack Gunston, and Charlie Cameron will kick a winning score.
TIP: Not a whole lot of confidence here but I think Brisbane win narrowly. Lions by fifteen points.
RICHMOND VS COLLINGWOOD – FRIDAY 7.50PM – MCG
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The Tigers are undefeated in 2023 after a draw with Carlton in round one and a pretty simple win over Adelaide last week. They will be missing a host of their best 22 players including superstar Dustin Martin, key defender Robbie Tarrant, and one of their best inside midfielders in Jacob Hopper. Collingwood have accounted for Geelong and Port Adelaide with ease in the opening two rounds and they look like the in-form side of the competition currently.
WHERE RICHMOND CAN WIN:
The Tigers’ key forwards have been fantastic against the Magpies in recent times and they hold the key to beating them again. Tom Lynch kicked six goals and had twenty-six disposals last time when dismantling the now Collingwood captain in Darcy Moore and Jack Reiwoldt was also fantastic when kicking two goals. The Collingwood defence hasn’t changed since then a whole lot and you would think that Moore will again go to Lynch which will be a mouth-watering match up. I think the Magpies’ key defenders are very vulnerable against quality key forwards and the likes of Billy Frampton and Nathan Murphy will struggle against Tiger champion Jack Reiwoldt. If the Tigers’ tall forwards contribute the way they did last year they will be hard to beat again.
WHERE COLLINGWOOD CAN WIN:
With the Tigers missing Jacob Hopper, Dustin Martin, and Jayden Short from their midfield rotation it opens up opportunities for the likes of Tom Mitchell, Jordan DeGoey, Taylor Adams, and Jack Crisp to really dominate this game. In their win against Richmond in 2021 the latter three were best on the ground and they also played well against them last season. The Tigers midfield rotation looks very light on after the three main midfielders in Trent Cotchin, Tim Taranto, and Dion Prestia and I just can’t see the Richmond midfield winning it at the contest or being able to spread like Collingwood. The Richmond defence has also looked a lot more vulnerable over the past two seasons and this Collingwood outfit seemingly score at will. It will be difficult for the Tigers’ defenders with four of their back six missing.
TIP: I think Collingwood will win and relatively easily. Magpies by 34 points.
HAWTHORN VS NORTH MELBOURNE – SATURDAY 1.45PM – UTAS STADIUM
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Hawthorn have started off the season as poorly as any team has in the last decade, getting humiliated by arch-rivals Essendon in round one and then beaten by eighty points by the Swans. North Melbourne have surprised a few under Legendary coach Alistair Clarkson. They have beaten both Western Australian teams – Fremantle in WA was a very impressive victory considering even the good teams struggle to do it.
WHERE HAWTHORN CAN WIN:
The Hawthorn small forwards are still very damaging in the likes of Dylan Moore, Luke Bruest, and Chad Wingard and that isn’t including the likes of Tyler Brockman and Sam Butler who could be included this week. The North Melbourne defence will need the likes of Luke McDonald and Jack Ziebell to be at their best against them and even if they are I think it takes away their intercept and rebounding game to a degree. I think the clearance and contested ball battle throughout the middle is relatively even and as long as the Hawthorn tall forwards can bring the ball to ground, the likes of Bruest, Moore, Wingard and even midfielders like Day and Worpel can pounce and hit the scoreboard.
WHERE NORTH MELBOURNE CAN WIN:
The Kangaroos midfield has been dominant in the opening rounds of this season with Luke Davies-Uniacke probably being the best player in the competition as we speak and the likes of Ben Cunnington and Hugh Greenwood have also been fantastic. Essentially, North Melbourne is more experienced and further into their rebuild than the Hawks which means they should win the contested ball. However, missing Jy Simpkin is a huge out. He is arguably North Melbourne’s second-best midfielder and his omission opens the door for Hawthorn to split the midfield battle which will make this a very tight game. Nick Larkey has also been dominant in recent weeks and the Hawthorn defence is giving up goals to key forwards who aren’t at his level which is a concern. He could be the difference.
TIP: I think we are in for a very tight one. North Melbourne by eight points is the tip.
GWS VS CARLTON – SATURDAY 4.35PM – GIANTS STADIUM
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The Giants come into this game 1-1 after a win against the Crows in round one before falling to the Eagles in Western Australia last week. They did have excuses though with Josh Kelly, Harry Perryman, and Lachie Whitfield all missing. Carlton are undefeated after drawing against the Tigers and beating the reigning premiers in Geelong rather easily. This is a dangerous game for them.
WHERE THE GIANTS CAN WIN:
The Giants’ forward line can prove troublesome for the Blues in this game. Carlton struggled against the Geelong tall and medium-sized forwards last week and Jesse Hogan has been in tremendous form to start this season kicking seven goals and five behinds. The Toby Greene match-up shapes to be troublesome too. Greene has kicked eight goals from two games this season and there doesn’t look to be an obvious match-up for him. Mitch McGovern has been in awful form and Greene would like his chances in the air against either Newman or Saad. The likes of Brent Daniels and Harry Himmelberg also have undeniable talent and it wouldn’t shock me to see them play well in this game. The Blues’ defence will need to be at their best.
WHERE THE BLUES CAN WIN:
The twin towers are going to challenge every team in the competition this year and that isn’t an exception for the two Giants’ key defenders in Sam Taylor and Jack Buckley. They have done a terrific job so far this season but Charlie Curnow is in scintillating form and Harry McKay will build from a confidence-building last quarter against the Cats. The Giants don’t have many defensively-minded small defenders and it has shown this season with them conceding goals against both the Crows and Eagles’ small forwards. Josh Rachele kicked three goals in round one whilst Izak Rankine let them off the hook when kicking two goals and five behinds. Jamie Cripps, Jayden Hunt, and Jake Waterman combined for nine goals last week and the likes of Corey Durdin, Matt Owies, and Jesse Motlop will be licking their lips on Saturday afternoon.
TIP: I think this game will be high-scoring and entertaining. Blues by five goals.
ST KILDA VS ESSENDON – SATURDAY 7.25PM – MCG
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I didn’t particularly rate either of these teams heading into 2023 so if you had told me that they would both be undefeated I would have been shocked. Brad Scott and Ross Lyon have got their troops playing a much better brand of football and arguably both teams are hard to play against at this stage of the season. The Saints will miss skipper Jack Steele for a month in what is a cruel blow for an already depleted outfit.
WHERE THE SAINTS CAN WIN:
The Saints need to bring the pressure they have over the last two rounds again on Saturday night to have any chance of winning this game with the injuries they have. The Essendon defence is not necessarily the strongest part of their 22 and the smaller Saints forwards will be the key to them kicking a winning score. The Essendon small defenders outside of Jake Kelly lack accountability at times and the Saints do have small forwards in Jack Higgins, Jade Gresham, Mattaes Phillipou, and Daniel Butler that can hit the scoreboard and hit it hard. Luke Bruest, Blake Hardwick, and Chad Wingard proved this is a vulnerable spot for the Bombers in round one and it is something they will need to address before Saturday night.
WHERE THE BOMBERS CAN WIN:
With the likes of Jack Steele, Jack Billings, and Nick Coffield out of the Saints midfield the settled Essendon midfield should be able to get on top of the Saints. The likes of Will Setterfield and Dylan Shiel have had brilliant starts to the season and Darcy Parish seems to be back to his best whilst the opposition tries to tag Zach Merrett out of the game. The core of the Essendon midfield should be able to beat the Saints around the ball and on the spread which will allow the Bombers’ small forwards to go to work. When Callum Wilkie is occupied by a key forward it exposes the Saints’ small and medium defenders with Josh Battle being the only defensively-minded player in the Saints’ back six. Jake Stringer returns and will be a handful for the Saints’ defence along with Alwyn Davey Jnr, Jye Menzie, and Archie Perkins.
TIP: I don’t understand why the Bombers aren’t the favourites. Essendon by four goals.
ADELAIDE VS PORT ADELAIDE – 7.30PM – ADELAIDE OVAL
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The Crows enter this game under the pump after losing two winnable games over the first two rounds against the Giants away and Richmond at home. Port Adelaide were irresistible in round one when beating the Lions by nine goals at home before being brought back down to earth last week when losing to Collingwood by twelve goals. It shapes up to be a showdown that is season-defining.
WHERE ADELAIDE CAN WIN:
Adelaide’s key forwards need to make the most of their matchups against the undersized Tom Jonas and Aliir Aliir. Darcy Fogarty and Taylor Walker haven’t fired a shot so far in 2023 and there is no better time to start firing in a showdown. The Power’s small defenders also leave a lot to be desired. At one stage last week Jason Burgoyne was on Jamie Elliot in the forward fifty. I think that shows you where their small and medium-sized defender stocks are at and the Crows have two of the most talented small forwards in the competition in Josh Rachele and Izak Rankine to compete against. If the crows can halve the contest in the middle I think it will allow them to kick a winning score.
WHERE PORT ADELAIDE CAN WIN:
The Port Adelaide midfield is more experienced and much bigger than the Adelaide midfield and I feel like that could be the difference in the game. The likes of Ollie Wines, Connor Rozee, Travis Boak, Willem Drew, Jason Horne-Francis, and Zak Butters are ultra-talented and they bat very deep which the Crows do not. I think they will get on top both in the contested and uncontested ball and it will be hard for the Crows to stop them. Adelaide also doesn’t have a recognised key defender outside of Tom Doedee and Port Adelaide have a very strong duo in Charlie Dixon and Todd Marshall to compete against. The likes of Orazio Fantasia, Junior Rioli, and Zak Butters can also be a handful if they are on song which has every possibility of happening in a showdown.
TIP: I think Port Adelaide bounce back. Power by four goals.
GOLD COAST VS GEELONG – SUNDAY 1.10PM – HERITAGE BANK STADIUM
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Both Geelong and Gold Coast come into round three winless and both of them need to get a win on the board and quickly. Both teams have had similar issues in relation to uncontested possession and not working hard enough when they don’t have the ball and they will need to fix those issues before Sunday. Geelong will be sweating on the availability of Coleman Medallist Jeremy Cameron.
WHERE GOLD COAST CAN WIN:
The Suns can win this game at the source (contested ball and clearance) which will give their forwards the best chance of kicking a winning score. Even in their thumping loss to the Swans, the Suns won the clearance battle and they repeated that against the Bombers when winning it again. The likes of Matt Rowell and Noah Anderson have been terrific at the coal face early this season but they need the outside players to start working both ways. This Geelong midfield can be gotten at this season without Joel Selwood and the tired and ageing legs or just the slow legs of Patrick Dangerfield, Mitch Duncan, and Brandon Parfitt can be beaten on the spread both ways if you are willing to work hard enough.
WHERE GEELONG CAN WIN:
Even without Jeremy Cameron this Cats’ forward line is very potent. Tom Hawkins is underdone but can still destroy any opposition and the likes of Gary Rohan and Ollie Henry have started the season well and with the absence of Charlie Ballard only Sam Collins is a recognised key defender. If Geelong can halve the middle of the ground and get some easy ball into the Cats’ forward fifty those three will really threaten the Suns’ defence and that is not to mention the likes of Tyson Stengle and Brad Close who can both hit the scoreboard In a big way.
TIP: It won’t be easy for the Cats but I think they will get over the line. Cats by nineteen points.
MELBOURNE VS SYDNEY – SUNDAY 3.20PM – MCG
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The Demons come off the back of a bad defeat against the Lions at the Gabba after a very good win over the Dogs in round one, whilst the Swans are undefeated after winning two games they should have against Gold Coast and Hawthorn. I think this is an early finals preview and it will be the game of the round.
WHERE MELBOURNE CAN WIN:
Melbourne’s best chance of winning is to get on top in the middle. Sydney have a deep midfield but it isn’t filled with clearance and contested ball beasts whereas the Demons are. The likes of Clayton Oliver, Jack Viney, and Christian Petracca need to win it in the contest and get their centre clearance game going which will make it very hard for the Swans to defend. At their best, the Demons have the best midfield in the game and they proved that in that famous third quarter against the Bulldogs in 2021. If they dominate the clearance and contested ball game I think they’ll be very hard to beat as they have an in-form Ben Brown and Tom McDonald which they didn’t have last year when the Swans beat them.
WHERE THE SWANS CAN WIN:
The Demon back six has struggled against the key forwards of the Swans in recent times with the likes of Sam Reid and Logan McDonald getting on top of them along with Tom Papley. I doubt the omission of Reid for Lance Franklin will change that and it must be the area of concern again for Melbourne. When the likes of Oliver and Petracca haven’t been at the coal face in recent clashes against Sydney, the deeper Sydney midfield cash in and really gets on top in there. The likes of Errol Gulden, Isaac Heeney, Ollie Florent, and Dylan Stephens are all good midfielders in their own right and against the lesser likes they have dominated. The Demons still don’t have a good medium to small-sized defender and Tom Papley and Isaac Heeney must be keeping Simon Goodwin up at night leading into this.
TIP: I think Melbourne at the MCG can win a very close one. Melbourne by five points.
WEST COAST VS FREMANTLE – SUNDAY 5.20PM – OPTUS STADIUM
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Both coaches are under the pump already this early in the season. The Eagles went down to North Melbourne in round one before getting over a depleted Giants team, whilst the Dockers have lost two games they should have won against St Kilda and North Melbourne. Both teams need a win badly to keep the wolves at bay.
WHERE THE EAGLES CAN WIN:
The Eagles’ defence can really strangle this Fremantle forward line who has been incapable of scoring in the opening part of the season. Jeremy McGovern and Tom Barrass are two of the best defenders in the competition and if Jackson and Taberner perform the way they have been they will turn defence into attack very quickly. The ball just hasn’t really hit the ground in the Fremantle forward fifty this season and they aren’t creative enough with the ball. If they go long and deep into their forward fifty I think they’ll get picked off all day. I think they can win the midfield battle with Fremantle but there is no point if the forwards aren’t going to work smarter and harder in regard to kicking a winning score. If it is a low-scoring game I think the Eagles will win.
WHERE FREMANTLE CAN WIN:
The Dockers need to man up in the centre of the ground and bully a West Coast midfield that is easily bullied. Will Brodie and Jaeger O’Meara are big-bodied midfielders who are brilliant clearance and contested ball players and they need to get on top in the contested ball battle against an Eagles team bereft of inside ball winners. If those two set the way the likes of Andrew Brayshaw and Caleb Serong will start finding the football and that is when the Dockers are very hard to play against. With the way their forward line is functioning at the moment, they simply must win the contest ball battle all throughout the ground and use the weight of numbers to get repeat inside 50s which will give them their best chance of kicking a winning score.
TIP: I don’t trust West Coast at all. Fremantle by four goals.
Well, those are my tips for this week. Agree? Disagree? Let me know in the comments! I would love to discuss it.