G’day again legends. We are back again for another bumper Saturday card of racing at Flemington for the time-honoured Newmarket Handicap down the straight where the Golden Eagle winner I wish I Win is a $4.20 favourite. The Sires Produce for the juveniles accompanies the Group One, as does the Australian Cup Prelude which will be a good guide for the Australian cup in a fortnight’s time. Hopefully after a poor week last week, we can bounce back!
RACE 1: GRAND HANDICAP CLASSIC PRELUDE, 2000M
We kick off the program with a race for the stayers over 2000m. I think SHOCK ‘EM OVA is a deserved favourite but at even money it doesn’t want me to jump out of trees to back it. I thought his second at the Valley last start was fantastic when he showed a lethal turn of foot to run second from the rear when recording the fastest last 400m and 200m splits of the meeting and I am prepared to forgive his first-up run over the mile in what was a leader dominated affair. I think Flemington is a big tick for this horse and he should only strip fitter third-up. He will need to beat ALVERDUN from that last start run but I expect the speed to be stronger here and the appointment of Craig Williams from Jake Noonan is another big positive. INDEPENDENT ROAD might be the fly in the ointment as I think the only chance, he has of winning is to make it a truly run 2000m. His best is good enough and he brings in the different form line. SPARKLE was solid behind Munhamek in a fast race last Saturday and should improve third-up. She shouldn’t be discounted.
SUGGESTED BET: NO BET
RACE 2: THREE-YEAR-OLD HANDICAP, 1100M
Really intriguing race with some promising types going forward. I cannot possibly take the $1.90 on offer for WHAT YOU NEED. He was completely dominant on debut when beating Lascars by 4L without getting out of second gear and has trialled up well leading into this first-up assignment. He might be a superstar and just win, however, there are a few queries around him. He faces arguably harder opposition here and he has to see the straight for the first time on race day. He is a deserving favourite but you are brave if you are taking $1.90. I can have something small on SWEETENED who I have had a big opinion of since her debut win at Geelong. She didn’t have much luck behind the likes of Mumbai Jewel and Wee Nessy at Caulfield and the Valley last preparation and she has trialled up like a bomb leading into this. She strikes me as a horse who will love the straight and she only needs to be sharp enough over 1100m to be the one flashing home late. FATUSO was a dominant winner on resumption last preparation at Kyneton when winning by 5L and he had clear excuses behind She Dances when caught 3WNC the trip at the Valley. He has trialled nicely and might be a horse that shows her best fresh. KAYGEEBEE and LINCOLN SQUARE come out of the same race at the Valley last preparation and both have trialled well leading into this. They cannot be discounted.
SUGGESTED BET: 0.3U EACH WAY ON #9 SWEETENED @$15
RACE 3: KEWNEY STAKES, GROUP TWO, 1600M
Happy to speck a couple at odds here in the Kewney. PAPILLON CLUB maps to get all the favours here. I loved her maiden win at Geelong first-up last preparation when she was 3WNC yet still beat them by 3.5L and she handled the rise in grade at her next start at this track over 1400m when she beat Hennessy Lad with ease. She was six weeks between runs when she finished third behind Wollombi ($7.50 here) after travelling 3WNC the trip off a hot tempo so I think with a better run in transit and stripping fitter for the run she represents good value at the $8 quote. She will put herself on the speed and be very hard to run down. ETERNAL FLAME is a silly price at $35. Yes, she draws wide (12) and will have to go back but the same can be said for a few of the more fancied runners here. She beat a good horse in Von Hauke two-back and she was the luckless runner in the Angus Armanasco when she just never got clear air. She would have finished 2-3 lengths closer if she got room in the straight and would be half her current quote here. Happy to back her each way at the big odds and hope she improves more than the other over the mile. REVOLUTIONARY MISS brings down the Sydney form and has been luckless in better races than this at G1 level. She finds it difficult to win (1 from 11) but she maps to get the favours here. SHUFFLE DANCER was a good winner last start after travelling wide and can win again. Open race!
SUGGESTED BET: 0.7U WIN #7 PAPILLON CLUB @$8 AND 0.3U WIN #9 ETERNAL FLAME @$35
RACE 4: SIRES PRODUCE, GROUP TWO, 1400M
This is as wide-open a race as you are going to get on the program. In saying that, I think you can have something small on PORTOROSA at the $23. I thought she was very good on debut behind Madeira Sunrise when she recorded the fastest last 600m of the race and she never got much room last start in the Sweet Embrace over the 1200m when it looked like she was only getting through her gears late. I think she will be suited more by the 1400m than most of her rivals and she did show an element of early speed last start so I think she can settle a bit better than midfield in a race devoid of speed. The Sydney form looks very good. VEIGHT was a dominant 6L winner on debut at Pakenham but the question mark is what he beat. I get the feeling it was a field full of duds but I could be wrong. He maps to essentially lead here and should have no excuses. He is very skinny at the $3.90 though. GANBARE was terrific in the Inglis Millenium when finishing 2L away from Learning to Fly who is the Golden Slipper favourite. 1400m seems right up his alley and he draws better today (7). DUBENENKO was brilliant late in the Blue Diamond when recording the fastest last 200m of the race. She will get a long way back but should be rocketing home late and the 1400m will suit her more than most.
SUGGESTED BET: 0.3U EACH WAY #13 PORTOROSA @$23.
RACE 5: MATRON STAKES, GROUP THREE, MARES, 1600M
I will keep this short as I found it essentially impossible to find the winner. INSPIRATIONAL GIRL would go on top if I had to pick one. She has had three decent hit outs leading into this first-up run and she has won two from six fresh. She seems to like Flemington and if she can repeat her effort in either the Blamey when she beat Zaaki or the Turnbull when she was an unlucky sixth, it would be good enough to win this. SO YOU SEE maps nicely again and was a dominant winner last start. This is harder but she is a mare in form. BARB RAIDER draws terribly (11) but has the talent and EXCELIDA was good last start and isn’t without a chance.
SUGGESTED BET: NO BET
RACE 6: AUSTRALIAN CUP PRELUDE, 2000M
I was happy to be with the Western Australian in MAROCCHINO here. He has won his last three this tough old stayer and his win two-back in very fast time when he beat Steinem (who subsequently beat Gold Trip) looks good enough to win this. He has drawn the rails; Troy Turner has come over for the one ride which is always a good indicator and I think he strips fitter than most of his rivals. If Turner makes it a proper staying test from the 1000m mark I think he will be too tough for them late. RIGHT YOU ARE is the main danger and is shooting for five in a row. His win two-back over the 1800m when he destroyed a handy field by 4L put the Australian Cup on the agenda and he went up in grade and won well again over 2100m at this track when beating VOW AND DECLARE by a length. He maps perfectly here and should prove hard to beat. YAPHET might be the roughie in the race. He was terrific first-up over 1400m at Sandown behind subsequent winner Munhamek and he worked home well behind Steinem last start. He could be ready to run a big race third-up and he might have the fitness edge over some of his rivals.
SUGGESTED BET: 0.75U WIN #4 MAROCCHINO @$7
RACE 7: NEWMARKET HANDICAP, GROUP ONE, 1200M
The feature arrives and she is a wide-open Newmarket in 2023. I can’t really come into the favourites so I am happy to speck a couple at odds. STAR PATROL is a horse I have had a big opinion of for a while and I think he is ready to peak here. He come back in brilliant order when beating a good field by 1.75L at Sandown and I thought his effort in the Oakleigh Plate was a horse that is screaming out for the 1200m now. He gets that here down the straight where he was won two from three and he draws in the right part of the track to sit just off the speed and then show his lethal turn of foot over the last 400m. He is over the odds at $21. BUENOS NOCHES is the other I am happy to back. He went from strength to strength last preparation when going down a nose to Giga Kick (eventual Everest winner) before running third in the Coolmore and he has come back in terrific order. He ran the second fastest last 200m split in the Lightning (I wish I Win ran the fastest) but he gets another 3kg off that horse here. He will be flashing home late and should be closer in the market to the favourite. I WISH I WIN was enormous first-up in the Lightning when running the fastest last 400m and 200m splits of the meeting. He is short enough at the $4.80 but is a deserved favourite. PRIVATE EYE is a star who loves the straight and can’t be ruled out.
SUGGESTED BET: 0.4U WIN #13 STAR PATROL @$21 AND 0.4U WIN #16 BUENOS NOCHES @$12
RACE 8: SHAFTESBURY AVENUE, GROUP THREE, 1400M
I am happy to follow the form out of the Elms Handicap that was run here a few weeks ago and I am backing the first two across the line again here. SCALLOPINI has seen the 1400m at Flemington twice now for two victories and both of them have been career peaks. He has drawn wider today (15) but there doesn’t look to be much speed engaged in the race which means he shouldn’t have to spend too much petrol getting across. If it pans out that way, I don’t think they can run him down. Damien Lane has a good record on the horse and he is one of the best front-running riders in the country. BIOMETRIC is another who just loves the 1400m at Flemington and I was surprised to see him at such a big quote. He was a touch unlucky two-back when a 1.5L fourth behind Corner Pocket at this track and trip and he finished off strongly behind Scallopini last start. He draws perfectly (7) to get a similar run and can win at big odds. AYRTON generally fires fresh but geez I thought he was under the odds at $3.60. In his last few outings first-up he has only beaten the likes of King Magnus by half a length and Bandersnatch by a neck and I don’t think that form should see him a $3.60 favourite. He also draws sticky (9) and will need luck in running. WORSFOLD has always given me the opinion that he is up to this grade. He was a dominant winner in his first two starts under Nick Ryan and he just got too far back at the Valley last start. He will be flashing home late.
SUGGESTED BET: 1U WIN #1 SCALLOPINI @4.80 AND 0.4U WIN #11 BIOMETRIC @$18
RACE 9: THREE YEAR OLD HANDICAP, 1400M
Completely opposing the favourite here who has won a BM62 in South Australia and now comes to Flemington off an okay trial and starts $3.60. Seems crazy to my eye. I am happy to be with MERIDIUS who brings in terrific form lines from last preparation when running 1.8L away from the winner in the Caulfield Guineas. He was asked to do nothing in his trials leading into his first-up run in the Zeditave and he worked home nicely over the last 200m in what was a leader-dominated race. He drops in grade significantly here, strips fitter second-up and draws perfectly (3) to settle a bit closer in the run. He is the best horse in the race and his last second-up run when he beat home Amenable at Caulfield would simply win this. Hopefully, he can replicate it. I have to have something on ZOE’S PROMISE at the $18. She was 2L away from Jenny Jerome ($7 here) and she beat home Climbing Star ($12 here) so the current prices make zero sense to me. She has been sent to the Maher and Eustace camp which generally improves horses a few lengths and her trials leading into this have been very good. She draws perfectly (5) to get the run of the race and she is a tough horse and is always hard to get past. ZOUPURRING brings in the very good Helix form from his debut run. He was excellent when breaking the maiden last start and maps to lead. IS IT ME is priced horrifically but isn’t without a chance. Has obvious upside.
SUGGESTED BET: 0.6U WIN #2 MERIDIUS @$7 AND 0.4U WIN #1 ZOE’S PROMISE @$18.
STAKING PLAN:
RACE 2 #9 SWEETENED – $15 – 0.3U EACH WAY
RACE 3 #7 PAPILLON CLUB – $8 – 0.7U WIN/#9 ETERNAL FLAME – $35 – 0.3U WIN
RACE 4 #13 PORTOROSA – $23 – 0.3U EACH WAY
RACE 6 #4 MAROCCHINO – $7 – 0.75U WIN
RACE 7 #13 STAR PATROL – $21 – 0.4U WIN/#16 BUENOS NOCHES – $12 – 0.4U WIN
RACE 8 #1 SACLLOPINI – $4.80 – 1U WIN/#11 BIOMETRIC – $18 – 0.4U WIN
RACE 9 #2 MERIDIUS – $7 – 0.6U WIN/#1 ZOE’S PROMISE – $18 – 0.4U WIN
TOTAL OUTLAY: 6.5U