G’day Legends! We are back again for another bumper meeting of racing at Flemington for Australia Cup day where Cascadian is a slightly drifting $4.60 favourite. We had a big weekend at the Valley last week and we are looking to keep the momentum going at headquarters. Let’s get stuck into the form!
RACE 1: 1100M MARES HANDICAP
We go down the straight for the first. I am happy to be with the favourite in VERANSKOVA who was terrific last preparation and has a good fresh record never missing the top two from three tries which includes a win, She was very good on resumption last preparation when missing Squid Game by a nose before absolutely bolting in down the straight here second-up. Her preparation concluded with a very solid effort in the Group Three Begonia Belle Stakes behind Asfoora. That is clearly the best form line leading into this, she fires fresh, loves the straight, and has trialled up brilliantly. She ticks all the boxes. SCORCHED EARTH has trialled up well and goes well fresh. She showed good tactical speed last preparation when being able to sit off them and to be able to lead and if she can recapture her 3YO form when she was nailed late by Argentia and beat home Asfoora, she will go close here. Her draw suits (8) down the straight. DUCHESS OF DORSET might be the knockout chance. She was very unlucky on resumption at the Valley behind Lady Solly and I thought she appreciated the straight in her one run down it. Draws out (10) and will sit on the speed for the in-form Dean Holland. SNAPPED was a drifting second favourite in a Group Three and is $6.50 in an easier race. I just worry about her down the straight.
SUGGESTED BET: 1U WIN #4 VERANSKOVA @$3.20
RACE 2: 1200M TBV THOROUGHBRED 2YO BREEDERS
Happy to speck a couple at a big price. CELESTIAL STORM seemed to appreciate the straight-on debut last preparation and I think her last two efforts can measure up here. She sat on a hot speed two-back at Sandown when they went 8L quicker than standard to the 800m and still managed to run third and then she set another decent tempo when beaten a length to Beauty Rising. I think the 1200m is ideal now, she gets a perfect set-up tagging the leaders and I don’t think this is much harder than what she has been facing. She will improve back down the straight and $15 is generous. LOVAZOU is a debutant out of the O’Brien yard who looked excellent in her only trial at Colac. Obviously, the inside draw isn’t ideal (2) but I think she is a very talented Filly. She will get back and might even be looking for further already but I can’t let her go around at $26 without something on her. AMAZONIAN LASS comes down from Sydney after a brilliant front-running win at Warwick Farm over 1100m. She draws perfectly (13) to be on the best part of the track and I doubt the 1200m is an issue with the run under her belt. HELL QUEEN was a brilliant winner in maiden grade at Bendigo when winning by 3.5L. Her start before that behind Maharba and Tacito reads very well for this. COAST PRINCESS can improve and include in any exotics.
SUGGESTED BET: 0.3U WIN #8 CELESTIAL STORM @$15/0.3U WIN #11 LOVAZOU @$26
RACE 3: 2000M GRAND HANDICAP CLASSIC
Trying to find some value here considering I think they are going to go at a quick tempo and set it up for the backmarkers. BLACK PENN has been very good in his last two runs. Two-back he worked home well behind Edith who I think is a smart galloper and his run was very good over 2100m at Sandown last start in a slowly run race when he recorded the fastest last 200m of the meeting. Nothing made ground in that race and he drops 5kgs off that and I don’t think is too much harder. He draws perfectly (7) to get a nice run around midfield and if they go along quickly, I think he will be the one charging home. SUMMERBEEL is the main danger. She was terrific when winning back-to-back races at Randwick and the Valley and I think she ran into a potential star in Queen Air at the Valley last start. She will cross them and sit on the speed and I think Flemington suits more than the Valley. SPARKLE was a good run behind Munhamek and he was very strong late considering he led throughout at this track and distance last start. I think he will lead them again here and be hard to run down. ALHAMBRA LAD must be included in all the exotics. He has been luckless in his two runs this preparation and finds 2000m here. He will be running on and isn’t without a chance at the big odds.
SUGGESTED BET: #16 BLACK PENN 0.4U EACH WAY @$13.
RACE 4: 1000M BOB HOYSTED HANDICAP
I think the price around some of the fancied runners are a bit under the odds and I think CURRAN looks like the bet. He can be a victim of bad luck due to his pattern but his ratings measure up here and he fires fresh and is at double-figure odds. He probably should have won against the likes of Gravina and Zethus last preparation at Caulfield and then he was luckless behind Argentia down the straight at G3 level when running two lengths away. He has been given two hard-hit outs leading into this and his most recent trial was impressive. They will go quickly here, he will settle back, and he will be in the right part of the track. He is the value. THE BOPPER is the main danger. He was terrific three-back when getting a mile back at the Gold Coast and then he was a dominant winner at Eagle Farm. He was good in a much better race than this at G2 level when 2L off Passive Aggressive and Giga Kick. That is clearly the best form line. D’JUMBUCK has won his last two down the straight and even though he will have to improve, there is nothing saying he cannot. He can sit on the speed and be in it for a long way. ON THE LEAD was the better of the runs out of him and Kallos over this track and distance. I think the fast tempo sets it up for him to be charging home late. He isn’t without a chance.
SUGGESTED BET: #5 CURRAN 0.3U EACH WAY @$10
RACE 5: 2600M THE ROY HIGGINS QUALITY
An automatic entry into the Melbourne Cup is on the line here. I am happy to be with the Waterhouse runners. GOLDMAN showed very good signs in New Zealand and has improved even more since coming to Australia. He has won both Australian starts by five lengths and I think he had a bit more up his sleeve in both of those outings. He draws well (5) to either lead or box seat and even though he rises in grade, I think he can handle it. He is a Melbourne Cup horse and I think he cements that here. YOUTH SPIRIT is the saver. He has improved with each run this preparation and I think he got to the front a bit early last start when overrun by So Unusual late in the piece. He draws perfectly (1) to lead and dictate in a race devoid of speed and Oliver and Waterhouse strike at 24%. SO UNUSUAL just keeps winning and gets a similar set up as he did last start when beating Youth Spirit. He can measure up again but I think the price differential is a bit silly. If SOULCOMBE can recapture what he did here on Cup week he wins. I just don’t think he is going that well. Could be wrong and Waller could have him firing third-up.
SUGGESTED BET: 1.25U WIN #10 GOLDMAN @$2.90/0.5U WIN #8 YOUTH SPIRIT @$11.
RACE 6: 1100M SUNLIGHT CLASSIC
A mouth-watering clash awaits punters here between BENEDETTA and WHAT YOU NEED. I am with the Colt. He was brilliant on debut when beating a handy horse in Lascars by 4L when recording the fastest 400m-200m split of the meeting and the fastest final 200m before spelling. He returned in a similar fashion in a much harder grade when beating the likes of Kaygeebee and Lincoln Square by 3L. I think he is drawn in the right part of the track (17) and he will be up on the speed which is always advantageous down the straight. There isn’t much between them so I have gone for the one who will get a better run. BENEDETTA was fantastic last start in a hot 3YO race down the straight and she put up ratings that indicate she is a Group quality horse. She races another rising star here, gets back and draws inside which is against her, but she might improve again and be too good. A race in two. RICH FORTUNE was excellent two-back when sitting off a hot tempo and powering home to win at Sandown. She was flat in a weak Group Three last start but she can bounce back and improve down the straight. SEBONACK was too bad to be true last start and was building nicely leading up to that. He is the blowout chance at $61.
SUGGESTED BET: 1.25U #8 WHAT YOU NEED @$2.90
RACE 7: 2000M G1 AUSTRALIAN CUP
The feature arrives. Going to back a few here for a handy profit and the main bet has to be CASCADIAN. He was outstanding fresh at Randwick in the Canterbury Stakes behind Artorius and Imperatriz over the unsuitable distance of 1300m and he was probably unlucky not to win the All-Star Mile when baulked for a run rounding the straight at the Valley. He ran the fastest final 200m of the race to run a second and a half a length off Mr Brightside. As long as he can find some cover from the tricky gate (11) I think he will win. They are the best form lines by a long way of any horse leading into this race and he generally peaks third-up and he loves Flemington. VIRTUOUS CIRCLE will need luck from the low draw (2) but by god, he was unlucky and very impressive in the Australian Guineas when rocketing home late to finish 2.5L off Legarto and Attrition. He gets in well at the weights as a 3YO and he will relish the 2000m at Flemington. Think he should be around $10 and is well overs. SMOKIN’ ROMANS is the other who can run a big race. He was only getting warm late on resumption in the race that Pounding won ($26 here) and I think he is always a bit flat second-up. He draws well (5) and he did win the Turnbull Stakes at this track and distance in the Spring. He is overs at $27. NUMERIAN had the tough job of carting up the field to the two tearaway leaders at Sandown on resumption and the run had merit considering he battled on for fourth. He draws (1) to get the run of the race and I think he has come back the best he ever has. Worth thought.
SUGGESTED BET: 1.6U WIN #1 CASCADIAN @$3.60/0.4U WIN #16 VIRTUOUS CIRCLE @$26/0.3U WIN #6 SMOKIN’ ROMANS @$27
RACE 8: 1400M HANDICAP
I was shocked to see CARDINAL GEM at $9. I think that is well over the odds for a horse of his talent who loves coming from the back of the field and sprinting quickly in slowly run races which looks like is the set-up he will get here. He was dominant at this track and distance last preparation before going to Caulfield over this distance when winning after being 3WNC the run and putting up a career peak. He was then far from disgraced in the Golden Eagle and now he finds himself in a handicap only giving the horse with upside 2kg? Count me in. He was unlucky on resumption down the straight and we know he fires second-up. Providing he gets some cover he is well over the odds. ILLATION draws terribly (15) but is the main danger. His first preparation was outstanding when he went three from three which culminated in an Adelaide Guineas win. He failed terribly at his only run-last preparation before being immediately tipped out. He has trialled up well here and can win, but I can’t back him at $3.50 with some genuine queries around him. DAYTONA BAY has been just even in both runs this prep but he draws perfectly (4) to get the run of the race sitting on a slow speed. He needs to improve but he can third-up and the form coming out of the Elms Handicap is terrific. MILTON PARK is the blowout chance at huge odds. He is a two-time Flemington winner and he is two from four second-up. He will either lead or be right up there and he can take some catching.
SUGGESTED BET: 1U EACH WAY #4 CARDINAL GEM @$9
RACE 9: 1200M GRAND HANDICAP SPRINT
One of the more wide-open races you will see and I think it is impossible to bet into. TREPORTI looks like the deserved favourite. He was terrific on resumption in a good race in Adelaide when nothing made ground bar him as they went at a very moderate tempo. He draws (13) in the right spot to be in the best part of the track and I think they will go quicker here and that he can run over them. DANAUSTAR will sit on the speed and is coming off a very good win at Pakenham’s last start. MY YANKEE GIRL will be running on strongly and it seems as though she goes fine down the straight. BELLINGER has gone back to back in South Australia and returns here down the straight with some added confidence. Not without a chance.
SUGGESTED BET: NO BET