G’day Punters. William Cornwill back again here for another week of tips for Australian Guineas racing weekend. We are coming off a profitable week where we tipped both the Blue Diamond and Oakleigh Plate winners at $9! Hopefully, we can repeat the dose this week!
RACE 1: 1000M FESTIVAL OF RACING STAKES
I found this race to be a hard one to analyse for the babies. ILLATIVE is a deserved favourite but I think there is a couple of smart horses engaged in this so I do not think there is any value at the $2.50 quote. She is the sister of Illation (Listed winner), Dragon Leap (G2 Winner), and Inference (G1 winner) and has won some trials in very fast time. Kah jumps on and she will be hard to beat. MASSIRA looks the big danger. I loved the way he went through his gears in his most recent trial and he matched motors with PRINCESS DUHALLOW in a recent trial when I thought he was going better through the line. He will not be far away from the favourite in the run. BUTCH CASSIDY trialled well in Sydney and the Waterhouse team does not bring them down here for nothing. He can measure up.
SUGGESTED BET: NO BET
RACE 2: 2500M HANDICAP
I was with TIMOUR at odds ($17) last start over 2000m at Flemington and he did not do anything to put me off him here. He got a long way back in a slowly run race and then worked home well late over the last 400m to only finish 3L away from Nobel Heights. I think the appointment of Jamie Kah is a big one here as she is a brilliant barrier jockey and from the low draw (2) if she can settle him closer in the run I think he wins. Going from 2000m – 2500m fourth-up seems like a terrific platform for this and at $4 he is a bet. YOUTH SPIRIT seems like the main danger. He was solid last start in a strong race in Sydney and he arrives here third-up and ready to peak. The Waterhouse camp always have their stayers ready to go over these distances and I would not be surprised to see him lead and try and steal it. SO UNUSUAL is a chance but is under the odds at $2.90. He was a good winner last start against inferior opposition and even though he drops 4kgs, I do not think he can be half the quote of a horse who was running against the likes of Hurricane Lane a couple of preparations ago.
SUGGESTED BET: #5 TIMOUR – $3.80 – 0.75U WIN
RACE 3: 1000M HANDICAP
Another race where I found it difficult to have much confidence leading into it. MAMARAGAN drops 6kgs in the weights and was terrific last start when an unlucky second behind a good horse in Unflinching. He generally peaks third up going by his ratings and if he can improve by a couple of lengths off that run I think he will be hard to beat here. I am just not sure how much you can trust this horse. ON THE LEAD was brilliant two-back at Sandown when flashing home to beat Inundation and he was again very good last start when 1.25L behind Star Patrol. Blake Shinn jumps on and I think that is the best form line coming into this race. He has been up for a while though. KALLOS has trialled terrifically since being gelded and is a proven winner down the straight. Repeating his effort when he won the Danehill here would have him in the finish. MIDNIGHT CHARM is the best of the rest.
SUGGESTED BET: NO BET
RACE 4: 1000M THREE-YEAR-OLD FILLIES HANDICAP
Spent a bit of time looking at this race and I kept coming back to the Western Australian raider in WILD BELLE. She has won three of her last four back in WA and her only loss came in the Placid Ark Stakes when she jumped poorly and then did plenty wrong in the straight. The form coming out of that race is outstanding and she returned after a three-month break last month when she demolished a handy field by three lengths. 1000m suits here and I think she is open to plenty of improvement whereas some of her main dangers have reached their peak/right grade. She only has to handle the straight to be winning. I think you can have something on PRAIRIE FLOWER at big odds. It has been a strange old preparation but this Filly loves the straight and I thought her effort here two-back would see her finish in the top three. I personally think coming back to 1000m is a big positive and she will be in the right part of the track drawn wide (10). OJAI was not disgraced here last preparation and resumed with a big run at Sandown behind a very good horse in Rich Fortune. She is not out of it. ARCTIC FAIRY is the best of the rest.
SUGGESTED BET: #4 WILD BELLE – $3.80 – 1U WIN/#6 PRAIRIE FLOWER – $19 – 0.25U WIN
RACE 5: 1600M BENCHMARK 84 HANDICAP
I have the feeling that KETTLE HILL does his best racing anti-clockwise and that is why I am with him here. His run on resumption behind a handy horse in Savannah Cloud at Sandown was brilliant and since going to New South Wales he has had a terrible run of luck. Two-back he was caught 3WNC the trip when finishing 1L off Kanazawa and last start he did not see daylight at any stage down the straight and eventually finished 3L off Claim the Crown. He draws well here (3) and I think Jamie Kah can settle him a touch closer in the run which should give him every chance to break through. Flemington is also a big tick. MUNHAMEK draws terribly (11) but is due for some luck. He just has not had any luck in his last two runs and the effort in the Elms Handicap would see him in the finish here with any luck. Mark Zahra is a very good appointment. SPARKLE got caught wide and without cover in her first Australian start and should be better for that run. WORTHILY comes back in trip and should not be discounted.
SUGGESTED BET: #8 KETTLE HILL – $4 – 0.75U WIN
RACE 6: 1200M INGLIS SPRINT
Can back a few here all at double-figure prices. CYTHERA showed plenty as an early juvenile and after a very long layoff, she was super in the Kevin Hayes Stakes when tracking a hot speed. She only got run over in the last 50m there and I think she will derive plenty of fitness out of that run. She will settle on speed here, Mark Zahra sticks and I think she will get a lovely run considering the tempo of the race. RUNNING BY can figure in the finish. She was a terrific winner on debut last preparation on the Synthetic and she was then set too much of a task at the Valley. Her trials leading into this have been very good and I think the appointment of Kah is a good one. SEBONACK has come back brilliantly this time in. He was only 1L off Remarque on resumption in a very strong race and then he was brilliant late in the Zeditave in a race that was not run to suit. He recorded the fastest final 200m of the meeting there and if they overdo it out in front he will be the one rocketing home late. OPAL RIDGE trialled up very well in Sydney and does bring down the Economics form from the last preparation. BRUDENELL the best of the rest.
SUGGESTED BET: #3 SEBONACK – $16 – 0.75U WIN/#17 CYTHERA – $11 – 0.5U WIN/#19 RUNNING BY – $16 – 0.5U WIN
RACE 7: 1600M AUSTRALIAN GUINEAS
We have a brilliant edition of the Guineas in 2023. I am very keen on ATTRITION at the double-figure quote. He was brilliant when breaking his maiden at Sandown over 1400m on resumption and he then went to a BM64 at Geelong when he won by 4L in what was a completely dominant display. He then got thrown in the deep end last start in the CS Hayes Stakes when he absolutely stormed home over the last 400m to finish only 0.6L off the winner. He stayed at the 1400m in that race and I think the mile is what he is crying out for now. He draws perfectly (7) to settle around midfield but not too far off them and he gets the services of Jamie Kah who is undoubtedly the best rider in the country at the moment. I marked him favourite. I will also be having something on LEGARTO. The Kiwi Filly was simply brilliant over the ditch when winning the New Zealand Guineas by nearly five lengths and she had absolutely no luck last start in her only defeat from six starts. Micky Dee jumps on her and I think she could be something special. JACQUINOT looks too short to my eye. He was a good winner of the C.F. ORR last start but I think he is best suited over shorter trips and there are some very, very good horses in this race that have more scope to improve than he does. I think he should be around the $5 quote. AMENABLE and ELKINGTON ROAD are the roughies to include in all of the exotics.
SUGGESTED BET: #14 ATTRITION – $10 – 1.5U EACH WAY/#15 LEGARTO – $10 – 0.5U WIN
RACE 8: 1400M BLAMEY STAKES
An entry into the 2023 All-Star Mile is up for grabs here in the Blamey. UNCLE BRYN looks the value at close enough to double figures. He finished off last preparation with a dominant win in the Cranbourne Cup and I think his run on resumption had plenty of merit to it. He never really got a look at them for the entirety of the straight there and it was essentially a barrier trial which means he could really springboard off that and hopefully run a new career peak. He fires second-up (beat Worthily by 4L a couple of preparations ago) and he maps to get the run of the race just off the leaders. Hard to see him missing a hole. GENTLEMAN ROY is a deserved favourite. He was dominant on resumption and then lost the Group One on protest last start. He will settle on the speed and prove very hard to get past again. Zahra chose to ride him over Uncle Bryn you would assume. TUVALU maps to get all the favours from the gate (5) and he generally improves second-up. I think there is nothing between him and Roy. BEAR STORY is the unknown. He has been racing in high-quality races back home and his trials leading into this have been good, but the worry is the wide gate (13).
SUGGESTED BET: #7 UNCLE BRYN – $9 – 0.75U EACH WAY
RACE 9: 1200M BENCHMARK 90 HANDICAP
Not the easiest of ways to end the day. I thought the $15 about FLORESCENT STAR was a good bet. She has come back in brilliant order. On resumption she probably should have beat Unflinching and Mamaragan over the 955m at the Valley when she just never got clear galloping room. She does her best racing second-up winning two from four with two seconds to go along with that and realistically I do not think this race is much harder than the last one she contested. She handles the straight and I think she should be half the quote. D’JUMBUCK has won his last two in convincing fashion and there is nothing to suggest he won’t do it again. He finds a similar race than the last two and he seemingly loves the Flemington straight. $3 is slightly unders though. IT’SOURTIME fires fresh and has run in much better races than this. He trialled nicely leading into this and should not be discounted.
SUGGESTED BET: #8 FLORESCENT STAR – $15 – 0.4U EACH WAY
STAKING PLAN:
RACE 2 #5 TIMOUR – $3.80 – 0.75U WIN
RACE 4 #4 WILD BELLE – $3.80 – 1U WIN/#6 PRAIRIE FLOWER – $19 – 0.25U WIN
RACE 5 #8 KETTLE HILL – $4 – 0.75U WIN
RACE 6 #3 SEBONACK – $16 – 0.75U WIN/#17 CYTHERA – $11 – 0.5U WIN/#19 RUNNING BY – $16 – 0.5U WIN
RACE 7 #14 ATTRITION – $10 – 1.5U EACH WAY/#15 LEGARTO – $10 – 0.5U WIN
RACE 8 #7 UNCLE BRYN – $9 – 0.75U EACH WAY
RACE 9 #8 FLORESCENT STAR – $15 – 0.4U EACH WAY