We are back again for another bumper card of Victorian Saturday Metro racing. The highly anticipated All Star Mile awaits at the Valley and we are very keen on one in the big one. Alligator Blood is a $2.80 favourite but we will be taking him on. The Typhoon Tracy Stakes and the Alister Clarke Stakes accompany the main race and hopefully we can find a few winners and take off where we ended last week with the last two winners on the program. Let’s get into it!
RACE 1: 1000 VOBIS GOLD COMET HANDICAP
Intriguing race to kick off the program. I want closer to $3 if I am going to back MIDWEST but he does go on top. He is undefeated from two tries at the Valley over this distance and his most recent performances in harder races than this in Sydney against Mariamia and Andermatt read well. He has matured in the fact that he can now take a sit and if Fine Dane or Sartorial Splendor do want to go at a break neck speed, Daniel Moor can sit off them and then run over them in the straight. He will be hard to beat in the opener. SCISSOR STEP is having his first run for the Tony McEvoy stable and has trialled up well. He is undefeated first-up, has won at the Valley and will get the run of the race from the draw (4). The blinkers go on and he is the main danger. SARTORIAL SPLENDOR is the best roughie. He loves the Valley, runs well fresh and was a trial winner leading into this. $10 seems a big price. I am happy to oppose MYNUMEROUNO. His wins last preparation were just wins against some average horses and his trials leading into this were not overly impressive. He also maps very awkwardly from a low draw (2). Laying.
SUGGESTED BET: Wait and see to see whether #1 MIDWEST drifts in the market. Want $3
RACE 2: 1200M BENCHMARK 70 HANDICAP
I can have something small on FEARLESS WRITER. I think this is a weak race and she is a progressive galloper. She draws awkwardly (8) considering a lot drawn inside her have similar early speed but her sixth on resumption behind Little Miss Kubi, Greece, and Arctic Fairy when she ran the fastest last 200m of the meeting was a terrific effort. Two of those runners ran 1-2 in a harder race at Flemington subsequently and the fourth placed horse in Mr Tickles is also a subsequent winner. She was brilliant at this track and trip last start and with the speed in the race drawn wide she should get a genuinely run race which she will enjoy. It’s a raffle outside of her. OUR GODDESS was a good winner at Pakenham and will go to the front here. If they let her cross with ease she will be in it for a long way. IN HER STRIDE comes back from Tasmania and can measure up in a weak Saturday race like this, and VONGOLE has found an affinity with the Valley in recent times and will appreciate what I expect will be a genuinely run race.
SUGGESTED BET: 0.75U WIN #12 FEARLESS WRITER @$7
RACE 3: 2040M THE MYSTIC JOURNEY
I think you can have something small each way on AMPERE here at juicy odds. She worked home nicely on resumption behind Reo and Diddley Squat over 1400m and then was a good winner when up in trip to the mile. I think she is only improving this Mare and being by Shocking she will love the rise to the 2040m trip here. She has a brilliant final 600m on her and I don’t think they are going to go overly quick here which might suit her. She draws perfectly (4) to sit on the shoulder of the favourite and I just think she should be in single figures so she has to be a bet at the current price. SUMMERBEEL is the main danger. The Waterhouse and Bott combination are at their best over these types of distances and she has won her last two with relative ease. In a race devoid of early speed she will roll to the front and be hard to catch. CHARMS STAR was much better in her second start for the Moody camp in the Wangaratta Cup. She should be at her peak fitness wise and cannot be discounted. DIVINE DIOSA is a slight query at the trip but is the best of the rest. The slow tempo should be to her advantage.
SUGGESTED BET: 0.4U EACH WAY #6 AMPERE @$15
RACE 4: 1600M VOBIS GOLD REEF
Interesting race here. I think AMERICAN LIAISON has to be a bet at the $14. I thought his effort two-back when 2L off a couple of very good horses in Eternal Flame and Von Hauke read well for a race like this and he dropped back in grade last start at Kilmore for an easy kill and it worked a treat with him winning by nearly four lengths over 1457m. I think he is the designated leader in this race which looks devoid of early speed, the mile shouldn’t be an issue, and he was only a neck away from BEL AIR last preparation who is $2.80 here. The price discrepancy is too big. I concede that horse is the main danger. He was an arrogant winner on resumption before being far from disgraced when rising to G3 level two-back when 2L off Elliptical. He worked home nicely behind a very good horse last start and he indicated the mile will suit. Ben Melham needs to be positive from the gate (4) or else he could get buried behind them. RUSSIAN DANCER was good against the older horses last start and maps to get a nice run in behind them, whilst TORONTO TERRIER was good on resumption in much lesser grade. He was only a length away from our on top selection last preparation and that from obviously reads well for this.
SUGGESTED BET: 0.4U EACH WAY #3 AMERICAN LIAISON @$14
RACE 5: 1600M THE MUGATOO HANDICAP
I think MUNHAMEK is a deserved favourite and really, he should be winning. The Nick Ryan Gelding posted a career peak last start when winning over this trip at Flemington and his performances at the Valley have been good without finding a win this preparation. From the low draw (3) I think Craig Newitt will be a bit more positive out of the gates and be closer than he was the last time he rode him and I think he is incredibly well weighted under the Handicap conditions. He drops 6kgs from last start and aside from one or two horses this race is easier. Providing he hasn’t had enough he should be winning. QUALITY TIME put up a picket fence last preparation and he generally runs well fresh. His effort in the Rosehill Cup when leading on a hot tempo and finishing 2L away from Hezashocka reads well for this. COMMODUS is the best roughie. Forget he went around the last time he was here when posted 4WNC the trip. His wins either side of that at Moe have been arrogant and he can settle closer here. Overs. RIZAYAN worked home nicely in the Blamey and probably should have finished a touch closer. He comes here third-up and ready to peak.
SUGGESTED BET: 2U WIN #5 MUNHAMEK @$2.40
RACE 6: 1200M ABELL STAKES
Found this to be one of the trickier races on the program. LADY OF HONOUR goes on top without much confidence. If I knew she was going to settle more in the run she would be a definite bet but she did still show signs of over racing in a recent trial. In that regard I think she will appreciate the fast tempo that they will set out in front and from the ideal gate (3) I think she can tuck in behind the leaders and then have the last crack at them in the straight. She is a quality animal who needs to learn to settle. SHE’S ALL CLASS would be the bet at $13 if I was having a bet in the race. First-up last preparation she was 2L off Chain of Lightning which reads well for this and she was only a length away from Excelida and Argentia over the 1400m last preparation. She will need luck from back in the field but I think she is over the odds. IN THE BOAT didn’t really come up last preparation and was tipped out quickly. In the preparation before that she won four out of five which included two wins at this track. She can sustain a strong gallop and could be too strong for them up front. DOULL was dominant in easier grade first-up. She isn’t suited under the Handicap conditions but she does map to get the run of the race and can improve further.
SUGGESTED BET: NO BET.
RACE 7: 1600M ALL STAR MILE
There is a long tail to this race as always but the top end are absolute quality. I have been keen on MR BRIGHTSIDE from a long way out and I’m not jumping off now. He was terrific on resumption when recording the second fastest last 200m of the meeting behind Jacquinot and he was again outstanding in the Futurity when he again recorded the second fastest last 200m of the meeting. The tactics probably cost him the race there and he draws better here (2) and I think they will be positive on him in what is his grand final. He should be much closer to Alligator Blood in betting as I think this set up suits him much more. ALLIGATOR BLOOD is the main danger. I think he is a touch short in the market at $2.90 but he is a horse who just finds a way to win and that can’t be underestimated. He is four from seven second-up and you just know he is going to put himself on the speed. He is a champion and can win again. I’M THUNDERSTRUCK appreciates racing at the Valley and I think a fast tempo race is what he needs now to win these big races. I think the other two in the market are going better but the Price camp has had this as his grand final all preparation. MY OBERON is the best roughie. He had excuses first-up when pulling up lame but in his first Australian preparation he won easily over this track and distance at G2 level before finishing 1.8L off Alligator Blood in the Champions mile. If he finds a backside in the run, he is the blowout chance and it’s worth having something small on him.
SUGGESTED BET: 1.5U EACH WAY #4 MR BRIGHTSIDE @$7/0.5U WIN #10 MY OBERON @$34.
RACE 8: 1200M TYPHOON TRACY STAKES
I have no firm opinion here and the market tends to agree with it being $3.50 the field. PARISAL goes on top after two rather dominant wins in Sydney. She was dynamic on resumption when breaking her maiden by nearly four lengths and she then went up in grade to a Benchmark 78 at Rosehill in which she won by a length. The horse she beat there was third in a harder race than this subsequently so the form stacks up and she draws perfectly (2) to get a dream run just behind the speed. PARIS DIOR beat home Insurrection and I think it is the superior form line leading into this. I think the race sets up perfectly for this Filly to sit around midfield or even worse and then power home. We know she appreciates a hot speed and she will get it here. MY BELLA MAE comes over from Western Australia and gets Pike on board. She draws terribly (12) and I would have liked to have seen more from her in her most recent win back home. Could be a lay opportunity if she shortens. WINNERTAKESITALL is the blowout chance. I don’t think she handled the straight first-up and her effort last prep at Caulfield could measure up here. She is another who will sit back, let it all unfold, and then be powering home late. She is overs.
SUGGESTED BET: NO BET
RACE 9: 2040M ALISTER CLARKE STAKES
Cracking race this. Happy to be with AMENABLE. I think we are getting $3 because he is going to need some luck from the low draw (2) but I think he is clearly the best horse in the race. He recorded the fastest 400m-200m split of the meeting first-up at Sandown and the fastest final 200m before going to the Australian Guineas when finishing fourth after being badly interfered with after the fall. He should have went very close to winning that race and I think it the superior form line. He is screaming out for the 2040m, Oliver rides the Valley well, and he should be winning. HIGH APPROACH is the best roughie and I can have something small on him. He was given a visit a visit of the Valley first-up over 1500m and you can forget he went around when never getting clear air. He then went to the Autumn Classic and was far from disgraced when I think he raced a bit flat. Draws nicely (7) to sit around midfield and he should be ready to fire third-up. JAPANESE EMPEROR was a big run in the Guineas when third to Legarto. He can settle closer from the good draw (4) and be in it a long way. DUNKEL will be flashing home late but probably must go back to last from the wide gate (12). MR FABULOUS is the other roughie that can run a big race at odds. He will love the step up in trip now.
SUGGESTED BET: 1.5U WIN #3 AMENABLE @$3.15/0.3U WIN #4 HIGH APPROACH @$34
RACE 10: 1600M COUNTRY MILE SERIES FINAL
Tricky way to end the day if you are down. I can speck TRUE NOBILITY at the big odds. He hasn’t won at the Valley in four starts at the track but when you look at the form he hasn’t had much luck. I thought his run two-back when third to Vongole and Pretty Tavi read well for a race like this and he had no luck at all last start when Frost Yourself ($16 here) beat him by half a length. He will be more positive and without much early speed in the race I don’t think he will have trouble crossing. Looks over the odds. BRITISH COLUMBIA was a brilliant winner two-back when dictating the terms before sitting on a faster speed and not being allowed to dictate saw him come undone last start. I think he will be able to dictate again here and that’s what might be the trick to him winning. JENNIFERWISH maps well and can be a threat big odds, and the same can be said for SUPRAZI who consistently goes around over the odds considering his winning strike rate.
SUGGESTED BET: 0.3U EACH WAY #15 TRUE NOBILITY @$21.
STAKING PLAN:
RACE 2 #12 FEARLESS WRITER – $7 – 0.75U WIN
RACE 3 #6 AMPERE – $15 – 0.4U EACH WAY
RACE 4 #4 AMERICAN LIAISON – $14 – 0.4U EACH WAY
RACE 5 #5 MUNHAMEK – $2.40 – 2U WIN
RACE 7 #4 MR BRIGHTSIDE – $7 – 1.5U EACH WAY/#10 MY OBERON – $34 – 0.5U WIN
RACE 9 #3 AMENABLE – $3.15 – 1.5U WIN/#4 HIGH APPROACH – $34 – 0.3U WIN
RACE 10 #15 TRUE NOBILITY – $21 – 0.3U EACH WAY