G’day Legends! We are back again for another week of AFL betting after a profitable fortnight. Easter Weekend means football from Thursday through to Monday and we are looking forward to finding you a few winners over the course of the weekend. Let’s get into it!
BRISBANE VS COLLINGWOOD – THURSDAY 7:20PM – GABBA
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I think the $2 BRISBANE H2H looks the bet here. The Lions are 1-2 after a couple of bad losses but they get back to the Gabba which they have made a fortress in recent times and they have also beaten Collingwood the last three times they have played them. Contrary to popular belief I don’t think this Collingwood team is any better than what it was last year and I expect Brisbane to bounce back hard at home. There is a couple of prop bets that I like in this one.
HARRIS ANDREWS 15+ DISPOSALS – $1.80/20+ DISPOSALS – $4
Andrews has hit the fifteen-disposal mark two out of the last three times these teams have played and has hit twenty once. He was terrific last week when recording twenty-one disposals and I think he faces a Collingwood forward line who lacks threats in the air which means that he should be able to get on top and dominate via intercepting in the Lions’ defensive fifty. I think he will play a big role in a Lions victory and I think he can really dominate the likes of Johnson, Mihocek, and McStay.
JOE DANIHER 3+ GOALS – $3.45/4+ GOALS – $8
I doubt the Collingwood coaching staff will want Darcy Moore to play on Joe and that leaves a good match-up for him on Billy Frampton who had plenty of favours when beating Tom Lynch last week. Daniher has had sixteen shots in his last three games against the Magpies and I think he will get a similar match-up again here. All he has to do is kick straight and I think he kicks at least three in this game. He is the major threat to the Magpies staying undefeated and I think he will carry the Lions to a big win by kicking a bag.
NORTH MELBOURNE VS CARLTON – FRIDAY 4:20PM – MARVEL STADIUM
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There isn’t any value in the H2H or line markets here. Carlton should win but $1.18 seems very short considering they are playing a team that is 2-1 and playing a very contested brand of football. I do like a few prop bets though.
CHARLIE CURNOW 3+ GOALS – $1.70/4+ – $2.80/5+ – 5.20/6+ – $10
This is a man in rare air at the moment considering the form he is in. Last year’s Coleman medallist has kicked ten goals in three games and with the absence of Griffin Logue and Ben McKay, he faces up against a Kangaroos side who are essentially without any recognised key defender. He beat up on a Geelong Defence featuring Sam De Koning and a Giants defence featuring Sam Taylor and this is a much weaker defence than that was. I think he could even kick eight or nine here. He will have a huge day.
TOM DE KONING ATGS – $1.80/2+ GOALS – $4.80
Marc Pittonet has been on limited minutes in his first couple of games back but I think he will get more ruck minutes in this game which means De Koning should spend more time forward and I think he can stretch what is already an undersized North Melbourne defence. Goldstein may run back defensively but they are still undersized considering the Blues have a very tall forward line with the likes of Curnow, McKay, De Koning, and Silvagni running through there. He is a prodigious talent who should be hitting the scoreboard.
JACK SILVAGNI 15+ DISPOSALS – $2.30
Silavgni had twenty-one disposals against North Melbourne last year and thirteen the year before which indicates the $2.30 is good value. In this new forward fifty set up that the Blues are currently running with he can often be the link man and I think the Blues will get on top in various stages throughout the game which will give him opportunities to find the ball. He will play on the weakest North Melbourne defender and I think he can beat them. He got nineteen last week and a repeat of that sees us making a profit here.
ADELAIDE VS FREMANTLE – SATURDAY 1.45PM – ADELAIDE OVAL
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There is no bet that I can suggest in this game. If I was going to steer you into anything it would probably be Fremantle H2H at $2.10 as I think their midfield can get on top, but the prop betting looks well covered by most bookmakers. I think the game will be won and lost in the middle and Andrew Brayshaw might be a bet for 30+ disposals if he drifts out to around $2.30.
RICHMOND VS WESTERN BULLDOGS – SATURDAY 4.35PM – MCG
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I don’t think there is much value in the H2H market here but I think the TOTAL GAME POINTS UNDER (-162.5) – $1.88 looks the play. In their most recent two outings, they haven’t covered this line and both sides have struggled going forward in 2023 with some execution issues. On a wet and most likely windy Melbourne day, I don’t think these teams will go over. I like Tom Lynch here though.
TOM LYNCH 3+ GOALS – $2/4+ – $3.80/5+ – $7.50
He is arguably a top three key forward in the competition Tom Lynch and he has a terrific record against the Bulldogs kicking seven goals against them in his last two games against their outfit. The Bulldogs have struggled to contain key forwards early this season with the likes of Ben Brown getting a hold of them and even though many considered Lynch to have a poor game last weekend, he still had four scoring shots. He will get all the opportunity in the world to kick a bag you would think.
ST KILDA VS GOLD COAST – SATURDAY 7:30PM – MARVEL STADIUM
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There is absolutely no value to be found from a punting perspective in this game. I think the Saints will win as it is very hard to trust the Suns but $1.50 is a bit skinny. The bookmakers have narrowed in on Brad Crouch in the disposal markets and they have also narrowed in on Jack Higgins in the goal-scoring markets. They are the only two I thought were very good chances to hit their marks.
SYDNEY VS PORT ADELAIDE – SATURDAY 7:30PM – SCG
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There is no value in the H2H or line markets here but I do think there are some prop bets that can hit at nice odds.
CALLUM MILLS 25+ DISPOSALS – $1.92/30+ DISPOSALS – $3.80
I think these are way over the odds. Mills has hit the twenty-five disposal in two of his three games this year and has recorded twenty-seven and thirty disposals in his last two matches against the Power. He is the Swans’ premier inside midfielder and I think for them to win he has to be getting at least twenty-five disposals.
LANCE FRANKLIN 3+ GOALS – $2.85/4+ GOALS – $6/5+ GOALS – $14
I thought Buddy was excellent against the Demons considering he had limited opportunity. He kicked two goals and had four scoring shots against a brilliant Melbourne defence that includes Steven May and Jake Lever and this week he faces an undersized Port Adelaide defence who allowed youngster Riley Thilthorpe to kick five goals last weekend. I think he will kick at least three and can kick more.
ESSENDON VS GWS – SUNDAY 2.10PM – MARVEL STADIUM
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I thought the GIANTS H2H – $2.70 was a bet here. They were good against a Crows team that has shown flashes earlier in the year, had clear excuses in round two and then only went down by ten points to the Blues last weekend. Essendon were pretty average against the Saints and I think the Giants can get them in the middle which can springboard them to kicking a winning score. There is a couple of prop bets I’ll be playing into.
TOM GREEN 30+ DISPOSALS – $1.70
It’s hard to see anyone in the Essendon midfield being able to go with Green and I think he could really bully them in there and give the Giants first use consistently throughout this game. He had thirty-four disposals last weekend when playing on Patrick Cripps and I can assure you there is nobody of that calibre in this Bombers midfield. I think the $1.70 is a fair price. He is too big for the Bombers midfielders in the contest.
JESSE HOGAN 2+ GOALS – $1.70/3+ GOALS – $3.25/4+ GOALS – $8
Hogan has hit this mark in his last two performances against the Bombers when kicking four and two goals respectively and he has hit that mark in every game this season whilst kicking eight goals and having thirteen scoring shots. Historically he has played well on Jayden Laverde and there is no reason why that will change here. I think it is the week of the key forward and he will join the party.
WEST COAST VS MELBOURNE – SUNDAY 5:20PM – OPTUS STADIUM
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Steer clear from this game as a punter. The Melbourne players are savage unders in both the goal and disposal markets and the Eagles players might not have much of a chance to get the ball or kick goals. There are alarm bells surrounding this game and they are all saying do not bet.
GEELONG VS HAWTHORN – MONDAY 3.20PM – MCG
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I admit that based purely on talent there is a huge gap in the team’s ability, but given the stage and the team’s current form, I think HAWTHORN AT THE LINE (+30.5) – $1.90 is the bet. The Hawks beat them in this fixture last year and the Cats were absolutely horrid against the Suns last week. I don’t think the Hawks will get smashed at all. I like some prop bets here.
TOM STEWART 25+ DISPOSALS – $1.95
Stewart has hit this mark in his last two encounters against the Hawks and without a real key presence that he will have to watch, I think he will repeat what he did last week against the Suns and intercept everything in sight which will then obviously lead to him having plenty of the ball. He recorded twenty-nine disposals against a better forward line last week and there is no reason he can’t repeat that here.
DYLAN MOORE 2+ GOALS – $2.20
Moore has kicked five goals in his last two encounters against the Cats and has had eight scoring shots. He recorded twenty-six disposals and kicked two goals in a win last week against North Melbourne and the Geelong defenders aren’t the most accountable bunch with only Jed Bews being a lockdown small defender. He will spend time in the midfield before pushing forward and hopefully getting a couple on the board!
So, those are my bets for this weekend? What are your best bets?
Think About What You Could Be Buying Instead. Set A Deposit Limit.