We are back for another round of AFL betting. Charlie Curnow has been our best friend over the first month of the season whilst Tom Lynch has been our worst enemy. Let’s have a look at what bets we like over the course of the inaugural gather round.
ADELAIDE VS CARLTON – THURSDAY 7.20PM – ADELAIDE OVAL
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I don’t think there is any value in the H2H market here with the two sides being evenly matched but I do think the bet is TOTAL GAME POINTS OVER (+171.5) – $1.88. Both teams score heavily when they are allowed to play their way and I think both teams are going to back their offensive weapons in this game. There are a few prop bets here that I like.
PATRICK CRIPPS 30+ DISPOSALS – $2/35+ DISPOSALS – $3.80
I think Cripps can really dominate this smaller Adelaide midfield if he is at his best. There isn’t a match-up that I can see on paper that can maintain a fully firing Cripps. He has recorded thirty-five and forty-one disposals in his two most recent outings against the Crows and he is averaging thirty disposals a game this season. There is a clear edge on both of these markets and hence I am happy to back the Captain.
JORDAN DAWSON 25+ DISPOSALS – $1.95/30+ – $4
Now to the Adelaide Captain. Dawson is in the best form of his life this season and last year he recorded twenty-five and thirty disposal games against Carlton which means he historically plays very well against them. He has hit twenty-five disposals in two out of four games this season and was clearly best on ground last week. The Blues struggle to stop these outside types so I think he will have a big day.
TAYLOR WALKER 2+ GOALS – $1.85/3+ GOALS – $3.80
The former Adelaide skipper kicked three goals in his two games against the Blues last year and he will likely get a similar match up here. Outside of their loss against the Power, Walker has amounted to nine scoring shots across three games which means on average he should get at least two or three scoring shots here. I’m backing him to kick straight tonight and be a big factor in the game.
JACK SILVAGNI ATGS – $1.50/2+ GOALS – $3.15
Silvagni historically plays well against the Crows kicking three goals in his last two games against them. He has had a few ‘nearly’ weeks in the first part of the season and with the Adelaide defence focused on the likes of Curnow, McKay, and the resting ruck, I think Silvagni can slot a couple. He is over the odds in both of these markets.
FREMANTLE VS GOLD COAST – FRIDAY 5.10PM – NORWOOD OVAL
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I think the SUNS H2H – $2.30 is the bet here. At their best, they are a very dangerous outfit the Suns and with the loss of Matt Taberner and the likely clearance dominance of the Suns, I think they are well over the odds at $2.30. There is a prop bet that I like here.
LUKE RYAN 25+ DISPOSALS – $2.20/30+ DISPOSALS – $4.20
The last time these two played each other Ryan recorded nineteen disposals in a five-goal loss and in the game, before that he recorded twenty-nine disposals in a win. I think this game will be relatively close and the ball will find itself in the Fremantle defensive fifty enough for Ryan to get his hands on it plenty of times. He has hit the thirty disposal mark twice out of four games this season so there is a big edge in this market.
RICHMOND VS SYDNEY – FRIDAY 8.10PM – ADELAIDE OVAL
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I think RICHMOND H2H – $2.50 is the value here. Yes, the Tigers have plenty of injuries to some of their best players but the Swans are also missing the McCartin brothers and Lance Franklin for this clash. The Tigers are lower on the ladder than the Swans but I think their form coming into this is better and they play the Adelaide Oval well. There is one prop bet I like in this game.
LIAM BAKER 25+ DISPOSALS – $2.30
Baker has recorded twenty-two and twenty-three disposals in his last two outings against the Swans but now he has found an established role around half back his disposal numbers have gone through the roof. He has hit twenty-five disposals three times in four games this season and if there is any rain around it is a massive advantage for him as he might be the best wet-weather player in the competition. There is a clear edge in this market.
BRISBANE VS NORTH MELBOURNE – SATURDAY 1.10PM – ADELAIDE HILLS
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There is no value at either the H2H or line markets here but I am happy to back a couple of prop bets.
JACK ZIEBELL 25+ DISPOSALS – $2.30
When Ziebell was playing the role he is currently playing again now in 2021 he recorded thirty-two disposals against the Lions and he is back playing that role this year and is averaging twenty-five disposals a game over the first month of the season. He has hit this mark in three out of four games and I think the ball will be in the Kangaroos’ defensive fifty quite regularly which will give him ample opportunities to get his hands on it.
ZAC BAILEY 15+ DISPOSALS – $1.70/20+ DISPOSALS – $4/2+ GOALS – $3
I am backing the ultra-talented mid-forward in to have a big day against the Kangaroos. He hasn’t had the most impressive start to the season but his historical performances against North are terrific. He has recorded twenty-nine and seventeen disposals against them in his last two outings against them and has kicked a combined six goals in those two games. He gets a mismatch here and should play well.
LINCOLN MCCARTHY 2+ GOALS – $3/3+ GOALS – $8.50/4+ GOALS – $31
He has had a poor start to the season but it is hard to ignore the last couple of times they have played each other in this market. He kicked five goals against them in a big win in 2021 and then kicked two against them in a six-goal win last year. With the Kangaroo defence worrying about the Lions’ talls and Charlie Cameron, he might be the one to kick a small bag. I’m happy to take the punt on him here.
ESSENDON VS MELBOURNE – SATURDAY 4.10PM – ADELAIDE OVAL
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I think Melbourne will win but at $1.27 there is absolutely no value around them. I think prop bets are the way to go in this game.
JORDAN RIDLEY 20+ DISPOSALS – $1.70
Ridley has beaten this mark in his last two games against the Demons and he has hit this mark in three out of his last four games this season. The ball will be in the Bombers’ defensive fifty enough for him to intercept and then get a couple of cheap disposals which should see him hit this mark.
JAKE STRINGER 2+ GOALS – $2.45
Stringer was terrific last weekend when having ten scoring shots for only four goals and his last two efforts against the Demons have seen him average 2.5 scoring shots per game. The obvious match-up for him looks like Jake Lever but I think even then, Stringer has him both for speed and at ground level. If the bombers can lower the eyes and hit him up on the lead ‘the package’ could be in for a match-deciding performance.
PORT ADELAIDE VS WESTERN BULLDOGS – SATURDAY 7.50PM – ADELAIDE OVAL
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I think the BULLDOGS H2H – $2.58 is clearly value here. I think these two teams are evenly matched (which the ladder also indicates) and the home-ground advantage shouldn’t make the market this stark. I like a few prop bets here.
TRAVIS BOAK 25+ DISPOSALS – $3.80
Boak was much better against the Swans when recording a season-high nineteen disposals and I think he is only getting back to full fitness now. In his last two outings against the Dogs he has hit the thirty disposal mark so I am hoping with the benefit of match fitness he gets more midfield time because if he does, there is a clear edge in this market. He and Wines have been a proven commodity against the Dogs and I think Hinkley will go that way again.
JEREMY FINLAYSON 2+ GOALS – $2.20
The man of the moment. Finlayson was amongst the best on ground last week when kicking three goals and the match-winner against Sydney and in his last performance against the Dogs he also kicked three goals. He gets a mismatch here with the Dog’s key defenders focusing on Charlie Dixon and Todd Marshall and he should hit the scoreboard again.
JAMARRA UGLE-HAGAN 2+ GOALS – $3
Ugle-Hagan kicked five against the Lions a fortnight ago which showed he has the ability to hit the scoreboard hard and like Finlayson, he gets a mismatch here considering the Power defenders have to contend with Aaron Naughton, Rory Lobb, and the resting Tim English. He can be the difference maker like he was a fortnight ago here.
GEELONG VS WEST COAST – SUNDAY 1.10PM – ADELAIDE OVAL
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This is a game to stay away from completely. Geelong should win but they still have some serious issues around the midfield and the Eagles have just been hammered with injuries. There is no value in any prop bets either. The bookmakers have this one right and they are keeping it very safe.
GWS GIANTS VS HAWTHORN – SUNDAY 3.20PM – NORWOOD OVAL
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I like the GIANTS 40+ – $4 as the bet here. The Giants have been very competitive against two of the in-form teams of the competition in Carlton and Essendon in the last fortnight and they face a Hawthorn team that is most likely missing their best midfielder and best-running defender. I smell a heavy defeat incoming. I like a few prop bets here.
LACHIE WHITFIELD 25+ DISPOSALS – $1.95/30+ DISPOSALS – $3.40
Whitfield will sit on the wing and be the beneficiary of the likes of Tom Green and Stephen Coniglio giving it to him. He has hit the thirty disposal market in his last two games against the Hawks and they don’t have much accountability against these outside types which was evident last week when Mitch Duncan cut them apart. I think there is a clear edge here.
JOSH KELLY 30+ DISPOSALS – $2
In his last game against the Hawks, Kelly hit the thirty disposal mark and he hit it a fortnight ago in a close loss against the Blues before recording twenty-eight and two goals last week against the Bombers. He is in career-best form and the Hawks will be so busy trying to stop the beasts in Tom Green and Stephen Coniglio that I think he will be afforded more time and space than he usually would be.
COLLINGWOOD VS ST KILDA – SUNDAY 4.50PM – ADELAIDE OVAL
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I don’t think there is any value in the H2H or line markets in this game. I like a few prop bets though.
JORDAN DE GOEY 25+ DISPOSALS – $2.30/30+ – $4.70/2+ GOALS – $2.40
He is in career-best form the Collingwood enigma and I think he will have a big say in this game. In his last two games against the Saints, he has recorded twenty-seven and thirty-two disposals whilst recording eight scoring shots. He has hit the twenty-five disposal market twice in four games this season and against an undermanned Saints midfield I think he can dominate the clearance and then push forward and kick goals.
BRODY MIHOCEK 3+ GOALS – $3.30
Mihocek was a lone hand-up forward last week for the Pies when kicking four goals and his record against the Saints is a very good one, kicking three and two goals in his last two matches against them whilst recording eight scoring shots. If the Pies can get it in there quickly there aren’t many defenders that can go with him on the lead and I think he is the man that can break this game open for the Pies.
So, those are my bets for this weekend? What are your best bets?
Think About What You Could Be Buying Instead. Set A Deposit Limit.