We missed last weekend after being the victim of the seasonal change flu but we are back this week to preview one of the biggest rounds of the season with the inaugural AFL ‘Gather Round’ in South Australia. Four of the top five teams on the ladder face each other with the Blues playing the Crows in what might be their biggest test of the season. Let’s get into it!
ADELAIDE VS CARLTON – THURSDAY 7.40PM – ADELAIDE OVAL
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Carlton are one of two undefeated teams entering this round and they face off against the Crows who have had a good fortnight accounting for the Power and the Dockers. Carlton loses Sam Docherty for this clash but will be aided by the likely returns of superstar Sam Walsh as well as Blake Acres and Matt Kennedy.
WHERE ADELAIDE CAN WIN:
Adelaide have been very good at a few things this year and one of those is scoring. Adelaide ranks third in the competition for points scored and that is off the back of a potent forward line that includes the likes of Taylor Walker, Riley Thilthorpe, Josh Rachele, and Izak Rankine. This is one of the areas that Adelaide can get Carlton in. They move the ball well Adelaide and I don’t think Carlton have come up against a team who does that yet this season so if the Crows can break even in the middle of the ground, the Carlton defence will face their stiffest test of the season. Adelaide also ranks fourth in the least opponent rebound 50s per game which is where the Blues are very strong and rank number one in rebound 50s per game. Most of the Blues’ scoring chains (outside of the star key forwards) come from this area so if the Adelaide small forwards can restrict the Blues’ strength, it will go a long way to them winning.
WHERE CARLTON CAN WIN:
The stats don’t align with the Carlton midfield being great in the contest but I think If they play at their best, it is the area they can really dominate in. Adelaide, outside of Rory Laird, still have a young midfield and the Blues’ seasoned bodies like Patrick Cripps, George Hewett, Matt Kennedy, and Ed Curnow might be able to get on top of the Adelaide midfield. In patches this year when Carlton have got on top throughout the contest and at centre clearances is when they have piled on goals, so the Crows have to fight the battle in this area. Charlie Curnow and Harry McKay are the other two big dangers for Adelaide. Nick Murray and Jordan Butts will likely be assigned the job and they will need to have incredibly good games in order to stop what is the best forward line duo in the competition. If they start cutting loose, the game will be all but over for Adelaide.
TIP: Carlton very narrowly. Blues by eight points.
FREMANTLE VS GOLD COAST – FRIDAY 5.10PM – NORWOOD OVAL
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The expectations were high (at least internally) for both these clubs at the start of the season but 2023 has been dreadful for them as things currently stand. Both clubs sit 1-3 and in the bottom five after some horrible efforts. This game is simply a must-win for both teams and the loser’s season might be over.
WHERE FREMANTLE CAN WIN:
Fremantle need more out of the likes of Matt Taberner, Luke Jackson, and Jy Amiss who have combined for only nine goals between them in the opening four rounds. They rank third in inside 50s per game this season so they are getting enough opportunities and they simply need to take them in this game in what is a very winnable one to get their season back on track. If their big men start getting involved in the game, they will probably win. They face a Gold Coast team who hasn’t got any recognised star key defenders and it must be said that going with a three-pronged forward lineup, one of them will get a mismatch and they will need to use it, or else it might be another frustrating day at the office for Fremantle supporters.
WHERE GOLD COAST CAN WIN:
Gold Coast have a very good midfield and I think they can get on top of what is an undersized and sometimes weak Fremantle midfield. The Suns rank second in clearances per game this season and the likes of Matt Rowell, Noah Anderson, and Touk Miller have been the driving forces behind that. If they can get on top in this area, it will go a long way to them being able to kick a winning score and give their key forwards in Ben King and Levi Casboult a proper look at it. Those two, much like the Fremantle forwards, also need to lift. They have combined for eight goals over the opening four rounds and simply must get their hands on it more on Friday afternoon. If King and Casboult are a factor in this game, I think Gold Coast will win.
TIP: I like the Suns here. Gold Coast by fourteen points.
RICHMOND VS SYDNEY – FRIDAY 8.10PM – ADELAIDE OVAL
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Both of these teams have had poor starts to the season considering they were both dreaming of the last day in September throughout the pre-season. Richmond are 1-1-2 and are missing Tom Lynch, Toby Nankervis, Jack Graham, Robbie Tarrant, and Jayden Short whilst the Swans are 2-2 and come into this game missing Lance Franklin and the McCartin brothers. It is an eight-point game early in the season.
WHERE RICHMOND CAN WIN:
With the McCartin brothers out the Tigers must take advantage of it. Yes, the absence of Tom Lynch is a big one and negates this in some ways, but champion Jack Riewoldt will come back in to spearhead the Tigers’ forward line and Dustin Martin will be expected to play as a deep forward which is a huge concern for any team. Shai Bolton will also be expected to push more forward throughout this game and the likes of Noah Cumberland and Rhyan Mansell had good games against the Bulldogs last week. The Swans’ defence will need to lift without their two key defenders and as I expect the midfield battle to be even, The Tigers’ best chance of winning is if their still potent forward six can get going.
WHERE SYDNEY CAN WIN:
Sydney ranks fifth in points per game this season and the Tigers’ defence without Tarrant, Broad, and Gibcus is susceptible to concede chunks of goals against them and that is the concern going into this game. The absence of Lance Franklin is a big loss for the Swans but the likes of Logan McDonald, Joel Amartey, Isaac Heeney, and Tom Papley is still a very potent forward line and one the Tigers may struggle to contend with. Tylar Young is going to need to stand tall against a very good young forward in Logan McDonald and the likes of Dylan Grimes and Nick Vlastuin will have their work cut out for them against the likes of Heeney and Papley.
TIP: I like the Tigers here to cause an upset. Richmond by eighteen in a high-scoring contest.
BRISBANE VS NORTH MELBOURNE – SATURDAY 1.10PM – ADELAIDE HILLS
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The Lions and Kangaroos both enter this game 2-2 and have played good football sporadically without being able to maintain it for a full four quarters. Brisbane are a much more experienced outfit than the Kangaroos however and are expected to feature in September action and are therefore favourites.
WHERE BRISBANE CAN WIN:
Brisbane rank first in clearances per game this season and if the likes of Josh Dunkley, Lachie Neale, and Will Ashcroft can get on top in this area it will make it very difficult for the North Melbourne defence to be able to handle the likes of Charlie Cameron, Cam Rayner, and Zac Bailey who are a very good small-medium sized forward duo. They have combined for eighteen goals between them over the first four rounds and with the North Melbourne key defenders occupied by the likes of Joe Daniher, Eric Hipwood, and Jack Gunston, I think the Lions’ small forwards will get some favourable matchups and they should lead them to victory.
WHERE NORTH MELBOURNE CAN WIN:
North Melbourne have been defensively sound in 2023 and that has come from their ability to stop teams at the source with them ranking third in the least opponent clearances per game. Brisbane rank first in this area so if North Melbourne can halve the stoppage and centre clearance battle, they can be in this game up to their eyeballs. Brisbane aren’t a good travelling team either so if North Melbourne can take the wind out of their sails early in the game, an upset wouldn’t surprise. Luke Davies-Uniacke is arguably the best player in the competition at the moment and if he can produce what he has over the first month of the season, North Melbourne can win this game.
TIP: The Lions will win in a hard-fought contest. Brisbane by four goals.
ESSENDON VS MELBOURNE – SATURDAY 4.10PM – ADELAIDE OVAL
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Both these teams sit at 3-1 and inside the top four with the Bombers being a surprise packet of the opening month of football. They face their biggest test against flag favourites Melbourne in what shapes up to be one of the games of the round.
WHERE ESSENDON CAN WIN:
The Bombers need to get on top in the middle of the ground and in the stoppages where they have been excellent all season, ranking third in clearances. Darcy Parish has had an excellent start to the season averaging nearly nine clearances per game and a rejuvenated Dylan Shiel alongside new recruit Will Setterfield have helped Parish and Merrett shoulder the load. The Bombers rank third in points per game this season and the majority of their scoring chains have come from the contest. If they can get on top throughout the middle of the ground the likes of Jake Stringer, Archie Perkins, Jye Menzie, and Kyle Langford can kick a winning score.
WHERE MELBOURNE CAN WIN:
The Demons have been fantastic offensively throughout the start of the season ranking first for points scored per game and the smaller to medium types will have some mismatches afforded to them. Bayley Fritsch, Kysaiah Pickett, Kade Chandler, and Charlie Spargo have combined for twenty-seven goals in the first four rounds and outside of Jake Kelly the Bombers don’t have any small lockdown defenders who are very good in one on one contests. As long as the Demons can thwart the Bombers’ attacking forays (which they should with the intercepting power of May, Lever, and Rivers) they should be able to kick a winning score.
TIP: I think the Demons will be too good. Melbourne by five goals.
PORT ADELAIDE VS WESTERN BULLDOGS – SATURDAY 7.50 – ADELAIDE OVAL
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The Power and the Bulldogs come into this game both 2-2 after two close wins against Richmond and Sydney respectively. Both teams aspired of playing finals and a win here would most likely have them in the top eight at the end of round five.
WHERE PORT ADELAIDE AND THE BULLDOGS CAN WIN:
The game will be won and lost in the middle of the ground. Both of these teams can leak goals very frequently and both have numerous key forward threats that include the likes of Charlie Dixon, Todd Marshall, and Jeremy Finlayson for the Power and Aaron Naughton, Jamarra Ugle-Hagan, and Rory Lobb for the Bulldogs. Both of these teams are very good in and around the contest. Port Adelaide ranks third in the competition for clearances and the Bulldogs rank fifth. Whoever gets on top in this area of the ground will likely be your victor. The Bulldogs won the clearances by sixteen and the Power by six last week and both teams won. Whoever wins the clearance battle will win this game.
TIP: I think the Bulldogs are the best roughies of the round. Dogs by fourteen points.
GEELONG VS WEST COAST – SUNDAY 1.10PM – ADELAIDE OVAL
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Both teams enter this contest 1-3 after four rounds. Geelong have been the shock of the season losing the first three games and West Coast have been solid without being fantastic considering their expectations at the start of the season.
WHERE GEELONG CAN WIN:
The Cats got back to their best around the contest in the second half against the Hawks on Easter Monday with Patrick Dangerfield leading the way with ten clearances, if he can repeat that and the other midfielders in Cam Guthrie, Tom Atkins, and Max Holmes can follow him, they will be too strong for this Eagles midfield. If they can get some easy ball into their forward fifty Jeremy Cameron might just feast on a West Coast defence missing Jeremy McGovern. The Geelong superstar has kicked eighteen goals over the first four rounds and is arguably a top-five player in the competition. He could be the difference again on Sunday afternoon.
WHERE WEST COAST CAN WIN:
If the Eagles can break even throughout the middle of the ground, I think they have their own key and small forwards who can kick a winning score considering the Geelong back six are somewhat undermanned themselves. The Cats will be stressing on the fitness of Sam De Koning. If he gets up and is completely ready then the Eagles’ advantage gets taken away but if he doesn’t the likes of Oscar Allen and Jack Darling can cause the likes of Esava Ratugolea some problems.
TIP: I think the Cats will be too good. Geelong by eight goals.
GWS GIANTS VS HAWTHORN – SUNDAY 3.20PM – NORWOOD OVAL
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Both Hawthorn and Greater Western Sydney come into this contest 1-3. The Hawks have been handed two eighty-point defeats over the first month of the season whilst the Giants have been competitive against the likes of Essendon and Carlton who are both in the top six.
WHERE THE GIANTS CAN WIN:
Hawthorn have generally been good at stopping teams dominate the clearance battle so far this season but with Will Day going out of the team, it looks as though the Giants midfield led by Tom Green and Josh Kelly can really dominate in this game. Stephen Coniglio ranks inside the top ten for clearances per game in the competition and Tom Green ranks inside the top twenty. It is hard to see this Hawthorn midfield containing those two players and if they don’t the likes of Josh Kelly and Lachie Whitfield will get it on the outside and be able to use it well going inside fifty. The three-pronged forward line of Jesse Hogan, Harry Himmelberg, and Jake Riccardi might be too much for the Hawks to handle regardless and that also includes Giants captain Toby Greene.
WHERE HAWTHORN CAN WIN:
The Hawthorn small forwards have been a shining light for the club all year and they are the worry for the Giants here. Luke Breust, Dylan Moore, and Tyler Brockman can all kick bags of goals and if the Giants’ small defenders can’t handle them, they can obviously kick a winning score. Outside of that, it is hard to see the Hawks being able to win this game.
TIP: Giants easily. Giants by ten goals in a heavy defeat for the Hawks.
COLLINGWOOD VS ST KILDA – SUNDAY 4.50PM – ADELAIDE OVAL
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St Kilda enter this contest as the only undefeated team of the season (outside of Carlton who drew in round one) whilst the Pies suffered their first defeat against the Lions last Thursday. It is first vs fifth in a brilliant end to Gather Round with a proper blockbuster awaiting us.
WHERE COLLINGWOOD CAN WIN:
The magpies can really dominate around the contest in this game. Collingwood rank fourth in clearances per game across the competition over the first month of the season and they face a still undermanned Saints midfield without skipper Jack Steele, Jack Billings, and Zak Jones. They rank fourteenth in clearances per game this season and it is hard to see the likes of Crouch and an ageing Seb Ross being able to handle a Collingwood midfield that includes Tom Mitchell and Jordan De Goey who both rank inside the top twenty for clearances per game. If the Pies can get on top in this area the likes of the Daicos brothers and Scott Pendlebury can get the ball in their hands which usually leads to scores.
WHERE THE SAINTS CAN WIN:
This Saints defence is arguably the competitions best across the first four rounds with them ranking first in the least opponent points per game. Callum Wilkie and Dougal Howard have been terrific and the likes of Josh Battle have come along for the ride. This is where the Saints can beat the Pies – by getting the game on their terms. The Saints like to win the ball back in their own defensive half and then possess it and take the sting out of the game. If they can do this throughout the full four quarters, they will restrict the Pies’ ball movement and therefore restrict their scoring. They need to play Ross Lyon football to a tee here and that is their chance.
TIP: I think the Pies will overpower the Saints. Collingwood will win by six or seven goals.
THOSE ARE MY TIPS THIS WEEK, WHO ARE YOU ON?