After a few good weeks, we hit a roadblock in Round Five with a few of our bets not getting over the line. We now turn our focus to round six where there are some mouth-watering clashes this week on the AFL calendar which includes Anzac Day, Anzac Eve, and a top-four battle between the Saints and the Blues. Let’s get into it!
FREMANTLE VS WESTERN BULLDOGS – FRIDAY 8.10PM – OPTUS STADIUM
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I was surprised that the Bulldogs were the outsiders in this market so the bet has to be BULLDOGS H2H – $2. I think the clearance dominance of the Dogs will give enough opportunity to what is a potent (yet underperforming) forward six which includes the likes of Aaron Naughton, Jamarra Ugle-Hagan, Rory Lobb, and Cody Weightman. As long as the Dogs’ back six holds up against a low-scoring Fremantle outfit, they should be able to win. MARCUS BONTEMPELLI 25+ DISPOSALS – $1.70/30+ DISPOSALS – $3.25 is the prop bet here. He has beaten the twenty-five mark in two of his last three games and has hit the thirty mark once in those three. He should dominate throughout the midfield again.
PORT ADELAIDE VS WEST COAST – SATURDAY 1.45PM – ADELAIDE OVAL
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I think this a pretty open-and-shut game here and the bookmakers agree so there is no price surrounding the H2H or line markets here. I do like a few prop bets though and they are all Port Adelaide players. The Eagles rank last in clearances and stoppages per game and I am backing the Port Adelaide midfielders to get on top.
ZAK BUTTERS 25+ DISPOSALS – $1.83/30+ DISPOSALS – $3.15
Butters’ last two weeks have been fantastic with him recording twenty-seven and thirty-two disposals and there is no coincidence that his centre bounce attendances have gone up about ten a game. He was terrific last week against a very good Bulldogs midfield and there is no reason he can’t repeat that this week against arguably the worst midfielder in the competition.
JASON HORNE-FRANCIS 20+ DISPOSALS – $2/25+ DISPOSALS – $4
Ken Hinkley has put all his support and faith behind the young superstar and he paid him back last week when getting the Power over the line with an eleven-disposal final term. He faces a team that has a bunch of kids in the midfield outside of Tim Kelly and I think he will want to put on a display against players that are the same age as he is. He will dominate throughout the midfield and have a big day.
TODD MARSHALL 3+ GOALS – $1.90/4+ GOALS – $3.40/5+ GOALS – 6.80
It’s hard to see Marshall not kicking a bag on his home deck. He was brilliant in the final term last week and he has kicked eight goals in his last two games against the Eagles. Barrass will probably have to play on Dixon which gives Marshall a match-up against one of Hough or Rotham which seems like a complete mismatch. Some easy ball will go into that Power forward line and I think he will be the beneficiary.
GWS GIANTS VS BRISBANE LIONS – SATURDAY 4.35PM – MANUKA OVAL
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I think the Lions are a bit short at the $1.32 but I still don’t think you can bet against them after a commanding few weeks. There is a couple of prop bets I like the look of here though.
LINCOLN MCCARTHY 2+ GOALS – $3.50/3+ GOALS – $10/4+ GOALS – $34
He let us down last week but we are sticking with him again here. Nick Haynes and Isaac Cumming are the two Giants accountable/lock down medium-small defenders but I think they will be accountable to Charlie Cameron and Cameron Rayner which might allow McCarthy to get off the chain. He had seventeen disposals last week so he is getting his hands on it enough ad I think this might be the week where he kicks a small bag.
JOSH DUNKLEY 25+ DISPOSALS – $1.75/30+ DISPOSALS – $3.80
The Giants midfield ranks seventeenth in clearances per game whilst the Lions rank first and a lot of this is down to Josh Dunkley who I think can have another big game on Saturday. He is second in total clearances at the Lions behind Lachie Neale and I don’t think the Giants will tag either of them as they have blind trust in the likes of Tom Green and Josh Kelly. I think Dunkley will dominate the contested ball and at a minimum hit the twenty-five mark which he has done in three out of five games this year.
GEELONG VS SYDNEY – SATURDAY 7.20PM – GMHBA STADIUM
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I think Sydney should be a touch shorter but it is hard to back them considering the outs to their defence in the McCartin brothers and Dane Rampe. I think it will be a contested game and therefore I want to be with some midfielders in the prop markets.
PATRICK DANGERFIELD 25+ DISPOSALS – $2.18
I think for Geelong to win this game Dangerfield is going to have to lead the way in his clearance work. It is all good that the likes of Atkins and Holmes can win the contested ball against Hawthorn and West Coast, but this is a different kettle of fish. GMHBA generally always makes games more contested and I think Dangerfield will lead the way for the Cats and dominate the clearance battle on his way to beat this mark.
CHAD WARNER 25+ DISPOSALS – $1.90
Warner was probably best on ground in last year’s Grand Final gathering twenty-nine disposals and two goals and his last fortnight has been fantastic with him beating the twenty-five mark in both games. He is the Swans’ best clearance midfielder and outside of Dangerfield, there isn’t much there for the Cats. I think he will find plenty of the footy on Saturday night.
TOM HAWKINS 3+ GOALS – $2.70/4+ GOALS – $5.50
Hawkins has been underdone for a large part of the season but he has shown signs over the last fortnight that he is getting back to his best. The Geelong champion has no match-up here with the Swans missing all of their key defenders and if he gets some one on one opportunities, he will hit the scoreboard hard.
HAWTHORN VS ADELAIDE – SUNDAY 1.10PM – UTAS STADIUM
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I don’t think there is any value in either the H2H or line markets here. Adelaide should account for the Hawks but I am always cautious about backing teams at a short quote in Tasmania. It seems to be the Bermuda Triangle of footballing ability at times. I like a couple of prop bets here though.
TOM DOEDEE 20+ DISPOSALS – $3.50/25+ DISPOSALS – $12
I think this is one of the better bets of the round. Doedee has recorded twenty disposals in two of his last three encounters with the Hawks and he will most likely be the interceptor against a really poor Hawthorn attack. Jordan Butts will get the job on Lloyd Meek and Nick Murray will get the job on Fergus Greene which will allow Doedee to do what he likes down back. He recorded twenty-four last week against a much stronger Carlton forward line and I feel like Hawthorn will blaze away here which will allow for him to get plenty of the footy.
RILEY THILTHORPE 2+ GOALS – $2.20/3+ GOALS – $5/4+ GOALS – $13/5+ GOALS – $41
Thilthorpe has a terrific record against the Hawks in his young career kicking seven goals in two games against them which included a five-goal haul on debut. Sam Frost and James Sicily will be occupied by Taylor Walker and Darcy Fogarty which will allow Thilthorpe to get a mismatch in a forward fifty that is likely to get some easy entries. He has already kicked five once this season and I think if you stake accordingly you won’t lose on this bet.
CARLTON VS ST KILDA – SUNDAY 3.20PM – MARVEL STADIUM
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I can’t split these two teams at all. I don’t trust any of the handicap markets either but I do like a prop bet here though.
JESSE MOTLOP 2+ GOALS – $5/3+ GOALS – $16
Motlop kicked three against the Saints last season and I thought he was one of the Blues’ best players last week and was unlucky not to kick a couple more goals. The Saints’ defenders will be busy with the likes of McKay, Curnow, and Silvagni and outside of Wilkie and Battle the Saints’ small defenders can be got at. He can be the crumbing small forward who wills the Blues over the line.
GOLD COAST VS NORTH MELBOURNE – SUNDAY 4.4OPM – HERITAGE BANK STD
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I thought NORTH MELBOURNE AT THE LINE (+22.5) was the bet. The Kangaroos were disappointing in the second half against the Lions last week but they matched it with them for a half and were unlucky not to finish closer to the Blues on Good Friday. Gold Coast were overrun by a very poor Fremantle outfit and I think the line market represents good value. I like a prop bet here as well.
LUKE DAVIES-UNIACKE 30+ DISPOSALS – $2.10
He has been one of the best players in the competition so far this season and he plays a team which don’t tag here and have allowed big numbers over the past few weeks against the opposing team’s best midfielder (Serong 37 disposals, Crouch 34 disposals, Guthrie 29 disposals). I think Davies-Uniacke is a better player than those three and I think he will find plenty of the ball both around the contest and in link chains which will see him beat this mark.
MELBOURNE VS RICHMOND – MONDAY 7.25PM – MCG
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MELBOURNE 40+ – $3 looks the obvious bet here. The Tigers were beaten up against a depleted Swans outfit by forty points last week and they are still missing their two most important players in Tom Lynch and Toby Nankervis. The Melbourne ruck combination of Max Gawn and Brodie Grundy are playing against a ruck combination of under 20 games of experience combined and I think it will just be a demolition job throughout the stoppages. I do like some prop bets here.
CHRISTIAN PETRACCA 30+ DISPOSALS – $2.10/2+ GOALS – $3.45/3+ GOALS – $10
The Tigers have been very poor in the contest this season (fourteenth in clearances) and Petracca will be one of the players to take advantage of that. He has recorded twenty-five and thirty-eight disposals in his last two encounters with the Tigers and had six scoring shots in those two games. I think the Demons will dominate throughout the contest and the Tigers have been giving up goals to midfielders who get forward and that is exactly what Petracca does.
KADE CHANNDLER 2+ GOALS – $4/3+ GOALS – $13
The Tigers have been giving up goals to small forwards over the last month like Willy Wonka gives out chocolates (evident by Tom Papley kicking six last week) and with Pickett playing more midfield minutes and Fritsch being manned up by Dylan Grimes, I think Chandler is the small that can hit the scoreboard. Off a small sample size, he loves playing at the MCG and he will have enough opportunities.
COLLINGWOOD VS ESSENDON – TUESDAY 3.20PM – MCG
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I can’t really split the two but I think ESSENDON H2H – $2.60 has to be a bet. There is just way too big of a gap in the odds currently considering how well the Bombers are playing. I think it is a real 50/50 contest. I like some prop bets here.
NIC MARTIN 2+ GOALS – $3.50
Martin has hit this mark in the last fortnight against the Giants and then against the Premiership favourites in Melbourne. He is going to play in his usual position of half forward/wing and I think the Pies’ defence will struggle to handle all of him, Stringer, Perkins, and Menzie. One of them has to get off the chain at some point and I think Martin is your man considering the Pies wingers of Josh Daicos and Steele Sidebottom won’t really want to be running defensively.
JORDAN DE GOEY 25+ DISPOSALS – $2
The Collingwood enigma was out last week with illness and he will be a welcome return to the Pies 22 as he is the one in this midfield (outside of Crisp who isn’t really performing) who can break the lines and really take the game on. The Essendon midfield will back the likes of Parish, Setterfield, Caldwell, and Perkins and I don’t think there will be a tag applied which means he should find plenty of the ball.
JAMIE ELLIOT ANZAC DAY MEDAL WINNER – $51
Speculative bet here but I think Elliot is the guy that can really put his stamp on the game. He hasn’t played on Anzac Day since 2017 and he is renowned for really lifting in big games. With Kelly most likely being occupied with the resting De Goey/Bobby Hill, I think Elliot will get a mismatch against one of Ridley (will struggle on the ground) or McGrath (will struggle in the air. He is a massive price and I’m happy to speck him.
So, those are my bets for this weekend? What are your best bets?
Think About What You Could Be Buying Instead. Set A Deposit Limit.