Round six was a long but fantastic round of football headlined by a classic ANZAC Day game at the MCG in front of 95,000 spectators and as always the AFL is to be commended for their excellent ANZAC services all weekend. This week won’t see the same amount of marquee games but there are still some very exciting contests awaiting us such as St Kilda Vs Port Adelaide on Friday Night, Essendon Vs Geelong and Adelaide Vs Collingwood on Sunday. Let’s get into it!
ST KILDA VS PORT ADELAIDE – FRIDAY 7.50PM – MARVEL STADIUM
The ladder-leading Saints are at home this week against an in-form Port Adelaide outfit who have won their last three in what promises to be an exciting contest. Port Adelaide will be without Todd Marshall and Tom Jonas for this game and will be stressing on the fitness of Charlie Dixon whilst the Saints are starting to get back some soldiers with Jack Billings being a chance to play.
WHERE THE SAINTS CAN WIN:
There are two areas the Saints can really cash in on in this game. The first one is that they can completely shut down the Port Adelaide forward line, particularly if Charlie Dixon doesn’t get up. The Saints are the best defensive team in the AFL currently, ranking number one in points conceded. A lot of this is down to Callum Wilkie who is having a terrific season. If you allow him to be that intercept defender, he will cut you apart with him ranking third for total intercepts in the competition and sixth in marks per game. Carlton did well last week making him accountable when having to play on Charlie Curnow but if Charlie Dixon doesn’t play you would think Dougal Howard and Josh Battle will be able to account for Jeremy Finlayson and Ollie Lord which means the likes of Wilkie, Cordy, Stocker, and Wood will be able to play loose and intercept in defence.
The other area the Power can be beaten in is by opposition small forwards and the Saints have plenty of talented ones in Jack Higgins, Jade Gresham, Daniel Butler, and Mattaes Phillipou. In the last two weeks, the Power have struggled against the opposition’s small forwards with Cody Weightman and Jai Culley both kicking four goals against them. Izak Rankine and Luke Pedlar also combined for seven goals in the Showdown and it is becoming a worrying trend for the Power. Jack Higgins and Daniel Butler have combined for twenty-one goals in the first six weeks of the season and I think they have the potential to be the match-winners for the Saints.
WHERE THE POWER CAN WIN:
The midfield and around contested ball is what the Power pride themselves on and if they are to win this game they have to dominate throughout the middle of the ground and control possession. Port Adelaide ranks second in clearances per game whereas the Saints rank fourteenth. They need to win it at the source and take a page out of the Tigers’ playbook on Monday night and lower their eyes when going forward. Port Adelaide also stops the opposition from having possession of the ball but the Saints rank first in disposals per game. Whichever team can get it on their terms (for the Power, a bit of chaos footy, and for the Saints, controlled possession and slower footy) will win this game.
TIP: Saints in a tight one. St Kilda by fourteen points.
BRISBANE VS FREMANTLE – SATURDAY 1.45PM – GABBA
The Lions come into this game as heavy favourites after winning four of their last five whilst the Dockers are languishing in thirteenth with just two wins from six games. Fremantle will await tests on the likes of Heath Chapman and Sam Switskowski who are vital to their set-up.
WHERE THE LIONS CAN WIN:
This is a pretty simple one. Brisbane ranks third in points per game this season and the Dockers are one of the worst defensive sides in the competition. The Dockers have conceded goals against every above-average key forward they have played this year. Nick Larkey kicked four in round two, Oscar Allen kicked 3.3 in round three, Taylor Walker kicked four in round four, and Aaron Naughton kicked 3.2 last week. Joe Daniher, Eric Hipwood, and Jack Gunston have combined for thirty goals over the first six weeks of the season and I think the odds of two of them kicking three or four are quite good and that will go a long way to Brisbane winning considering around seventy points per game.
WHERE FREMANTLE CAN WIN:
It’s hard to see how the Dockers can beat this Brisbane side at the Gabba. I think the midfield will be key for them. Fremantle ranks fifth in clearances per game this season and although the Lions rank first, it is an area in which they can at least break even which will give the Fremantle forward line enough opportunities to kick a winning score. Aside from that, I can’t see any other area in which they can beat the Lions statistically on paper.
TIP: Brisbane by a big margin. This one could get ugly. Lions 40+.
SYDNEY VS GREATER WESTERN SYDNEY – SATURDAY 2.10PM – SCG
Both teams come into this game off the back of comprehensive beatings against two of the best sides in the competition in Geelong and Brisbane. Sam Taylor is a huge loss for the Giants and Callan Ward also goes out with suspension. They welcome back superstar Tom Green to the team, however. The Swans will miss Robbie Fox through concussion and Lance Franklin, Dane Rampe, and Tom McCartin are all expected to miss again.
WHERE BOTH TEAMS CAN WIN:
Changing it up here. I think both teams will essentially break even in the middle of the ground. Neither team has any dominant clearance midfielders and that is depicted with them both being poor in this area statistically. The forward six of both teams will be where the game is won and lost. Sydney are still without any recognised key defender and now Robbie Fox goes out which makes the situation even worse. The Swans have conceded bags of goals to key forwards over the last fortnight and the likes of Jesse Hogan (12 goals) and Harry Himmelberg (8 goals) will be licking their lips. Toby Greene also will get a good match-up with either Callum Mills or Harry Cunningham the likely match-ups.
The same can be said for the Swans’ small forwards and how they will also be licking their lips though. The Giants have struggled against medium and smaller-sized forwards of the last few weeks with Jake Stringer kicking four in round four, Fergus Greene kicking three in round five, and Charlie Cameron kicking seven last week. Tom Papley has kicked fifteen goals this season and the likes of Will Hayward and Isaac Heeney will also play inside the forward fifty and have mismatches on the likes of Isaac Cumming and Connor Idun. Whoever makes the most of their opportunities going forward will win.
TIP: I am tipping the Giants in a close and high-scoring affair. GWS by eight points.
WESTERN BULLDOGS VS HAWTHORN – SATURDAY 4.35PM – MARVEL STADIUM
The Bulldogs have got their season back on track in recent weeks winning three out of four with a close loss to Port Adelaide accompanying that. Hawthorn have been playing much better football in the last fortnight but unfortunately, that hasn’t translated to wins with them suffering two heartbreaking losses by under a goal. Mitch Lewis, Will Day, and Josh Ward all return for the Hawks in what is a big boost for them.
WHERE THE BULLDOGS CAN WIN:
The Bulldogs have struggled forward of fifty this season but they got their game going last week in that regard by having ten individual goalkickers they will need that to happen again this week and for their key forwards in Aaron Naughton, Jamarra Ugle-Hagan, and Rory Lobb to take the game away from the Hawks. In the last three weeks the Hawks have conceded seven goals to Jeremy Cameron, then conceded eleven scoring shots to Jesse Hogan and Harry Himmelberg, and then conceded seven goals to Taylor Walker and Darcy Fogarty which lost them the game. One of the Bulldog’s three-pronged forward attacks is going to have a big height advantage over James Sicily and they need to make sure they hit the scoreboard to ensure a Bulldogs victory.
WHERE THE HAWKS CAN WIN:
The Hawks can win by making this a contested, scrappy game of football. The Bulldogs rank sixteenth in points per game this season and it is because at times they can make it easy for a team to flood back and completely reduce any positive forward movement. Hawthorn is very good at negating a good midfield dominance, evidenced by them being ranked fourth in clearances per game and fourth in the least opponent clearances per game. If they can stop the Bulldogs’ midfield dominance and get some of their own ball going the other way, they will look like the winner at some stage and will be in the game for a long way.
TIP: Bulldogs by about four goals. The Hawks should be able to take it up to them for a while.
MELBOURNE VS NORTH MELBOURNE – SATURDAY 7.25PM – MCG
These two teams couldn’t be much more opposite over the last few weeks. Melbourne have won three out of their last four and are now back to full strength whilst North Melbourne have lost their last four and have been beaten convincingly throughout that patch.
WHERE MELBOURNE CAN WIN:
Is everywhere an answer? The Demons have some chinks in their armour (guarding the low ball inside 50, poor throughout the clearances) but they are still a polished outfit. They rank second in points per game this season and third in inside 50s per game and I just don’t think the North Melbourne defence or midfield will be able to handle the tsunami that the Demons can produce. The likes of Clayton Oliver, Jack Viney, Christian Petracca, and Angus Brayshaw will be too much for the North Melbourne midfield and when the Demons get the ball forward, they score.
WHERE THE KANGAROOS CAN WIN:
The Kangaroos just need to match it with Melbourne on the inside. They are very good at restricting opposition clearance and Melbourne ranks twelfth in clearances so it isn’t an area they are very good at either. If North Melbourne can dominate through the middle of the ground it will at least give the likes of Nick Larkey, Cameron Zurhaar, and Jaidyn Stephenson the chance to kick a winning score. That’s the Kangaroos’ one and only hope.
TIP: It might be close for a while but the Demons will be too good. Melbourne by 42 points.
WEST COAST VS CARLTON – SATURDAY 7.30PM – OPTUS STADIUM
The injury-riddled Eagles have suffered from injuries this season and have lost their last four because of it. They tried their hearts out last week and battled all day. They will be stressing about the fitness of Luke Shuey who is under an injury could because of his ankle. Carlton have been very poor over the last fortnight and this is simply a must-win game. Adam Saad will be tested today to see if he can get up.
WHERE WEST COAST WIN:
Use outside run and burn off what is a slow Carlton outfit will be the message from Adam Simpson. The Carlton defence has no real runners and speedsters outside of Adam Saad and neither does the midfield. Speed is one thing the Eagles do have some of. Jayden Hunt, Tim Kelly, Alex Witherden, Jamaine Jones, and Jack Petrucelle are all very quick and if they do use their speed to get some quick ball into their forward fifty the likes of Oscar Allen (16 goals) and Jack Darling (nine goals) can still kick big bags which is something the Blues have struggled with this season. Slowing the Blues down and then countering with speed is what the Eagles need to do.
WHERE THE BLUES CAN WIN:
The Blues just need to move the ball quicker and get it to their twin towers in Charlie Curnow and Harry McKay with some speed on it. The Eagles’ defence is completely undersized considering there is no Jeremy McGovern and if the Blues can move it quickly into their own forward fifty the likes of Harry McKay and Charlie Curnow should be able to kick big bags and get the Blues over the line. The likes of George Hewett and Matt Kennedy really need to lift in the middle of the ground or else Cripps will have to go it alone like usual which will give the oppositions midfield opportunities to win some of their own ball. It is very simple this week for the Blues. Back to basics. Win it at the source and move it quickly and they will win. Get held up and bomb away and the Eagles crowd will really get into the game and potentially will their team over the line.
TIP: Carlton should be winning. Blues by four goals with some nervous moments for fans.
ESSENDON VS GEELONG – SUNDAY 1.10PM – MCG
These two teams come into this in 4th and 8th place and have both been very good over the last few weeks. Jayden Laverde is a big out for the Bombers if he doesn’t get up but they welcome back Captain Zach Merrett back into the fold after suspension. Jed Bews is the only possible inclusion for the Cats one would assume.
WHERE ESSENDON CAN WIN:
The Bombers need to shut down the Geelong captain or at least negate his dominance. There is no coincidence that the Cats’ turnaround in form has coincided with Dangerfield getting back to his best. In round four he had ten clearances and twenty-seven disposals, in round five he had six clearances and twenty-three disposals, and last week he had seven clearances and thirty-one disposals. I don’t think Marc Blicavs will be able to do what he has done the last few weeks against the athletic Sam Draper which means if they can shut out Dangerfield, there is nobody to win the contested ball for the Cats. Will Setterfield is the man likely to get the job and he needs to either tag him out or make him accountable.
The other area Essendon can win in is their medium and small forward brigade in Jake Stringer, Archie Perkins, Alwyn Davey, and Kyle Langford. The Cats have struggled against these types this season and I think in particular Archie Perkins and Kyle Langford need to hit the scoreboard in order for Essendon to win.
WHERE GEELONG CAN WIN:
The Cats are the best offensive side in the competition this season and with Jayden Laverde likely out, Jeremy Cameron either gets to play on Jordan Ridley or young Zach Reid and I think that is a match-up he can really exploit given the form he is in (27 goals from six games). I assume Jake Kelly will play on one of Gary Rohan or Ollie Henry but whichever one he doesn’t play on will get a mismatch inside forward fifty against most likely Andrew McGrath.
The other area Geelong can dominate in is intercepts in their back fifty. With only the one recognised key forward in Sam Weideman the Geelong defenders in Tom Stewart and Esava Ratugolea will be able to cut off forward thrusts if the Bombers don’t lower their eyes when going forward. They did it perfectly against Melbourne a fortnight ago and they need to do it again on Sunday if they are to win.
TIP: I think Essendon can get the Cats. Bombers by four points in a close and high-scoring affair.
RICHMOND VS GOLD COAST – SUNDAY 3.20PM – MARVEL STADIUM
The Tigers have lost their last four but haven’t been playing horrible football, being right in the game against Premiership favourites Melbourne last week. Gold Coast have lost two of their last three but did account for North Melbourne with ease last week. Touk Miller is a big out for the Suns and I don’t think they will fill that void easily. Nathan Broad is back for the Tigers and Jack Graham is a test for Sunday’s game.
WHERE THE TIGERS CAN WIN:
With Touk Miller going out of the Gold Coast side I think the midfield groups are very even which should give the Tigers medium and small-sized forward enough looks at goal. The Suns have really struggled to contain the smaller types this season (Kyle Langford kicked five in round two, Jack Higgins kicked 5 against them in round four, Walters 4 in round five) and the Tigers have some very talented medium and small forwards. Dustin Marti looked back to his best movement wise and it was only inaccuracy that cost him having a big day last week when recording twenty-five disposals and kicking 1.3. Noah Cumberland kicked three and has an amazing goal sense, and Shai Bolton was good again. The Suns don’t really have a good matchup for any of them three and I think they will combine for about ten goals and get the Tigers over the line and their season back on track.
WHERE THE SUNS CAN WIN:
The Suns need to fill the void of Touk Miller and continue to be dominant around the contest. The Suns rank third in clearances per game this season and aside from last week, the Tigers have been poor in this area ranking sixteenth in this area throughout the start of the season. Noah Anderson and Matt Rowell need to lead the way in there and get it in quickly to their three-pronged key forward set-up in Ben King, Mabior Chol, and Jack Lukosius. The latter is likely to have a big height mismatch on his opponent and he is capable on his day of kicking a bag like he did against the Cats a few weeks ago when kicking five. For the Suns to win one of their key forwards needs to kick a big bag.
TIP: I think the Tigers will be too good. Richmond by seven goals.
ADELAIDE VS COLLINGWOOD – SUNDAY 4.40PM – ADELAIDE OVAL
The Crows had the lucky escape against cellar dwellers Hawthorn last week but have won four in a row coming into this game and the Pies have only lost one game this season which was against the Lions at the Gabba. Nathan Murphy most likely returns for the Pies whilst they stress about the fitness of champion Scott Pendlebury. I don’t think the Crows will make any changes.
WHERE ADELAIDE CAN WIN:
Breaking even in the midfield is a must against this Magpie outfit and I think the Crows can do that. Adelaide ranks fourth in points per game this season and has plenty of threats going forward headlined by their tall forwards in Taylor Walker, Darcy Fogarty, and Riley Thilthorpe who have combined for thirty-four goals already this season and the small forward duo of Izak Rankine and Josh Rachele who have kicked twenty-three goals between them. Assumedly Darcy Moore goes to Taylor Walker which opens up opportunities for both Fogarty and Especially Thilthorpe who is likely to have about 9cm and 10kgs on his opponent. Maynard likely goes to Rankine which allows Rachele to get a mismatch. This is how the Crows win this game. Move it quickly into their forward line and get it to the mismatch inside fifty. There is likely to be one every time they enter.
WHERE COLLINGWOOD CAN WIN:
Collingwood use forward handball and chain-up better than any team in the competition and that’s why they sit second on the ladder and rank first in inside 50s per game and second in goal assists per game. The Pies don’t really have any superstars in their forward mix but they have such an even bunch of contributors that they get you with a weight of numbers and forward pressure when they do go inside fifty. The Adelaide small defenders have stood tall all season and they face their biggest test here. The likes of Bobby Hill, Jamie Elliot, Beau McCreery, and Jordan De Goey have been every opposing team’s Achilles Heel in 2023 and this is where they can win the game again. Get it forward, build the wall, lock it in there with pressure and let the smalls and goal-kicking midfielders go to work. Adelaide must find an easy way out at some stages or else the Pies will beat them on Sunday.
TIP: This Crows team has something about it. I think Adelaide will win a high-scoring close encounter and make their statement.
THOSE ARE MY TIPS THIS WEEK, WHO ARE YOU ON?