A solid week last weekend, managed to snag 3/9 tips that actually ran and we were very close to a couple of more. But, I know what you’re thinking, can I please hit a best bet this week?!? I’m aware that my streak is not a good look. I am determined to hit one this week. Let’s get into it.
Track Report: The weather is fine at the moment in Sydney, but the rain is meant to hit HARD on Saturday. Potentially 30mm of rain is meant to fall on Saturday an that is enough to tip the track right into heavy mode. The track is a Soft 6 right now and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit. If dry, the track will be fair as possible, but if wet, I am sure it’ll be grab the driest lane and go go go!
Race 1 – 1100M Atc Bookmakers Recognition Day
This is the one race all day you should not be betting on, especially if the rain comes down. All of these horses have their positives and their negatives and can’t really see one that really sticks out to me.
But, if I had to pick one, because that’s what we do here, I’ll take a rough throw at the stumps with Hyde Park. Has a decent enough pedigree and has trialled very well. He’ll be fit enough to fire first up as he is a Waterhouse 2YO and the combination with Prebble proved very strong in the Autumn, so I think he’ll sit just off the speed and be strong late, if he handles the potentially wet deck.
Sovereign Fund is a strange one. Started the career excellently. He then went out and came last in the Magic Millions. But that form still puts him head and shoulders above the rest of the field. But, as a negative to that, he’s carrying 60.5kg which is pretty heavy for a 2YO. So I would rather watch him.
Armed Forces and Ravenclaw both have decent pedigrees and passable trials, but I think fitness might give way if the deck ends up soaked, so Thunderlips and Tumbling go in to finish off the selections, both of whom will be running on late.
Selections: 8-1-3-4
Suggested Bet: Just sit and watch this one.
Race 2 -1400M Highway (C3)
Preemptory will be the one I’m keen on here. He has been up for ages but has been consistently running well every start. Her last 2 runs have been a narrow 2nd and a great win at Randwick on a very Heavy track. Should jump clean and sit amongst the midfield before being one of the strongest late.
Bianco Vilano is the danger and the price reflects it. JMac goes on board after a great showing in the Country Championships. Should sit right on the speed and should handle the wet more than others. The only concern is the weight. 63kg is a bit ridiculous for a Highway, no Highway is THAT good. I think the Handicapper got it wrong here. He has won at 61kg before, but still, the weight is what is keeping me off him.
Baradas and Sammiballerina round out selections in a very open race.
Selections: 2-1-11-21
Suggested Bet: Preemptory Each Way
Race 3 – 1500M Midway (Bm72)
I’ll side with Wrathful here. That run last start at Warwick Farm was fantastic without winning. He reeled off some nice sectionals. He’s lightly raced and only just starting to hit his straps. Fitter, out to a longer distance and his fondness for getting his toe in the ground and he can certainly run them all down here if he repeats his effort. Dylan Gibbons just needs to not get him trapped wide without cover from that barrier.
Anythink Goes is probably the one who will be best suited. Been pretty close but yet so far lately and is trying his heart out to be winning a race. He finished 2nd in the last Midway at Randwick and despite making a valiant effort from a slower pace, he was ultimately outmatched by the impressive victor, Mayrose. Will be strong late.
If a leader’s bias develops, then Cuban Granchino will be the one that is best suited. Should settle on the speed and kick at the top of the straight. Loves the wet and should be able to grab the rail and ride it all the way if the field puts little pressure on him. Would be nice to see Louise Day win a Saturday metro race as well.
Miracle Spin comes right into this if backmarkers are able to make up ground on the day. He loves the wet and as long as he doesn’t give them too big of a start, he can potentially be the strongest late and get over the top.
Selections: 13-9-8-10
Suggested Bet: Wrathful Win
Race 4 – 1200M Alan Davidson (Bm72)
Zac Lloyd + Godolphin often means money. I think this will be the case with Contemporary if he gains a start and considering the weather, I am sure at least 1 horse will scratch. The claim gets him to bottom weight and 3kg lighter than last start where he chased hard and only finished a length off of the finish. Fitter and up in distance, he can get the job done.
Flag Of Honour is the big watch here as he makes a massive drop back to benchmark racing after spending all Spring chasing around the big boys in Group company. He will be the strongest late and he loves the wet, JMac will give him every chance.
Pretty Wild is a great chance at odds as well. Does best work fresh and he hasn’t had a run in months, so he is practically first up despite being kept in work for the entire break, so he’ll be sharp enough to fire here. The Magic Man is on and he loves getting his toe in the ground. He’ll sit just off the pace and try and kick home late.
I think the barrier is the only reason Ruby Kisses is $50+. Consistent type, always thereabouts, probably gets outclassed here, but she’s a mudlark and is having her first run for a new trainer. Dyl Gibbons can be proactive with her, get her cover and she can definitely finish Top 4 so she’d be in my exotics.
Selections: 19-10-6-8
Suggested Bet: Contemporary Each Way
Race 5 – 1200M Henry Noonan (Bm88)
I’ll be with Kipsbay here. Almost time for pretender or contender time for the Nathan Doyle gelding. Risen through the grades nicely in the last year and honestly could be a potential stakes grade sprinter in my opinion, but he was slightly flat 2nd up. Should push forward from the wide draw and if the rail is all chopped up, he will be in the exact spot he needs to be.
Conscript is one that I am really interested in at that price. He will jump clean, push right to the front and be the one they have to run down. Absolutely loves the slop and will be at the front for a long time. If you want a value knockout hope, this is the horse to back.
Fox Fighter will make me kick myself if she wins. He’s a good horse on his day and reeled off some fantastic sectionals last start, almost the strongest of the meeting at Hawkesbury. The only thing that rules him out is the weather, Soft 6 or lower, he is the bet, anything worse, I think he gets stuck in the mud.
As I said, Zac Lloyd + Godolphin often means money and Hellfest is that combination. Last time we saw her she was strong without winning behind I Am Me and Dehorned Unicorn, who are both much better than this grade. Hellfest will sit just off the pace and be one of the strongest late.
Selections: 8-4-6-3
Suggested Bet: Kipsbay Win
Race 6 – 1800M Toyota Forklifts (Bm88)
Very little confidence in this one, you have multiple Waller runners who should all be bouncing back, as well as a few honest types that you just know are going to put in a big effort.
I have settled on Ita, purely because she has done us well in the past and you know she will be in it for a long way. Excellent this prep without winning, strong run in the 2100M Orange Cup last start, a step back in distance and her love of the wet will do her well. She has a much better price than Navajo Peak which ultimately convinces me to take the value each way play instead of on the nose on the favourite.
Don’t get me wrong Navajo Peak is certainly a strong winning chance, but in such an open field, I am against his price, if he was $4-$5+ I’d be entertained, but at the current $3.40 mark, no thank you. The drop back in distance should work well for him and he is a fan of wet tracks.
Quality Time is an interesting one. Usually loves wet tracks but didn’t handle it last time out. Got too far back in the run and was never making up that ground after being bumped a few times. I would say it is a forgive run given her track record. Can bounce back for sure.
I think Shameless Miss is one you don’t want to rule out especially if it becomes a slog towards the end. Goes in the wet, has won out to 2600m, so you know she’ll get this distance easily. Probably wants longer, but has the Waller polish and does best work when on the fresh side.
Selections: 11-7-3-9
Suggested Bet: Ita Each Way
Race 7 – 1500M Vale Dean Holland (Bm78)
I love a horse who is fresh off a gelding and Money In The Sky comes here 2nd up off that same surgery. He was excellent first up without winning behind Ka Bling at Warwick Farm. Chased really hard but fell short. Gets an extra 100m here and he is 2 from 3 2nd up. Can go in the wet and should be the strongest late.
Newley Wed looks to be the next-best horse in this race. Will carry literally no weight at 50.5kg with Zac Lloyd on board. Has won 2nd up twice before, one of which was at this distance. If he settles close enough to stay within striking distance going around the bend, she’ll be the one to watch coming down the straight.
Floating is the favourite and he is a good sort, but is he too short? In my mind yes. He needs to be in your exotics, but I can’t have him to win at that quote. He will be strong late, but he’ll have to cross heels a long way to get away from the rail if it is off.
Kayobi was decent while finishing 6 lengths off the finish in the Midway Championships. The wide barrier won’t be a concern today and if they don’t pressure him up front, he can kick away with it.
Selections: 11-14-8-2
Suggested Bet: Money In The Sky Each Way
Race 8 – 1300M Nsw Bookmakers Co-Op (Bm78)
If you haven’t been able to tell, I am really banking on it being wet with my tips. This is exactly the case for Picarones. Most of this field either hasn’t seen wet or hasn’t performed very well in it. While Picarones does her best work in these conditions as a mudlark. She’ll sit off the pace with cover and try to kick home in the final stages. Plus, it’s the classic Looyd/Godolphin combo that I love oh so much.
Short Shorts is the class horse of the field and should be well respected. Can get the job done at this distance and in the wet, but that is a whole lot of weight to carry in such an open field and in such conditions. Will take a good steer to get the job done.
Frumos is a money guzzler. But god she is good on her day. She likes the cut in the ground and will be storming down the outside late, but again, 60kg is a lot of weight to carry. If she wins, it can be without my money.
Sonora rounds out selections and will be a great chance if it is only a Soft 6.
Selections: 8-2-4-10
Suggested Bet: Picarones Each Way
Race 9 – 1400M Kerrie Borger (Bm100)
Democracy Manifest is in for another succulent win here. Was excellent last start when he beat a decent field by 2 lengths going last to first. As long as he doesn’t give away too big of a start here he will do just that again I feel. Drops 3kg with the rise in class, but I feel he is a horse that will be rising through the grades to be at the group level come Spring time.
Coal Crusher is the map horse of the race, he will push forward and get a firm lead and if it is hard to make up ground on the day he can most certainly go all the way with it. Loves the wet and will be given every chance by the visiting Brad Rawiller.
Wild Planet wants it soft rather than heavy, but if he handles the deck he is right in this. Has form behind Vilana who is A grade form to have in Benchmark company. Proven second-up runner and this is his specialty distance with 4 out of 6 wins coming at the 1400m mark.
Bold Mac is having the prep of his life. Love this distance and this track, can go close with the right steer.
Selections: 7-1-4-11
Suggested Bet: Democracy Manifest Win
Race 10 – 1300M Bill Murphy (Bm78)
In my opinion, the top pick would be Huesca. Has drawn a favourable position and is expected to take the lead in the race. In its previous race, it had a sluggish start which forced it to drop back and search for cover. Despite being in an unfavourable position on the outer track, the horse finished strongly and made up significant ground towards the end. However, with a better draw this time around, even if it gets off to a slow start again, it should have no trouble finding a good position and is the horse to beat in this race.
Despite having a wider draw, I believe it could work to Redwood Shadow’s advantage as it allows the gelding to settle comfortably in the midfield with some cover. Although 1300m isn’t its preferred distance, the horse’s impressive performance in its first run at Warwick Farm indicates that it has returned in excellent condition.
Capo Strada and Excelladus round out selections with their respective strong form in the wet.
Selections: 11-7-9-3
Suggested Bet: Huesca Win (Best Bet)
Top Selections Of The Card
Race 1: Hyde Park
Race 2: Preemptory
Race 3: Wrathful
Race 4: Contemporary
Race 5: Kipsbay
Race 6: Ita
Race 7: Money In The Sky
Race 8: Picarones
Race 9: Democracy Manifest
Race 10: Huesca (Best Bet)
The Quaddie
Race 7: 2, 8, 11, 14
Race 8: 2, 4, 7, 8, 10, 11,
Race 9: 1, 2, 4, 7, 10, 11
Race 10: 7, 11
$50 gets you 17.36%
MAKE SURE TO GAMBLE RESPONSIBLY. SET A DEPOSIT LIMIT.