We are back again for another week of AFL betting action! We went very well last week and much like the Blues I am trying to find some consistency and am hoping to string a few good weeks together after what has been an up-and-down year of footy punting. I am happy to be with some inside midfielders this week and I think some superstar key forwards have some very favourable matchups. Let’s get into it!
SYDNEY VS CARLTON – FRIDAY 7.50PM – SCG
Stake accordingly but I like both CARLTON AT THE LINE (-4.5) – $1.90 and CARLTON 40+ – $5.90. I think the Swans are playing some of the worst footy of any team in the competition at the moment and even though the Blues have lost four of their last five, they are still getting shots on goal. I also like the TOTAL GAME POINTS OVER (+164.5). I think both teams struggle defensively so goals will be kicked. I like a few prop bets.
CHARLIE CURNOW 4+ GOALS – $2.15
He loves playing the Swans and I think he is going to get the matchup of either Robbie Fox or Lewis Mellican and it spells trouble for the Swans. Fox is just undersized whilst Mellican isn’t a great athlete so Curnow should be able to beat him both on the lead and in the air. He kicked six against them the last time they played each other and it would surprise me if he didn’t get very close to that again here.
HARRY MCKAY 3+ GOALS – $2.85/4+ GOALS – $6/5+ GOALS – $14
I think McKay represents brilliant value. He was good last week with limited opportunities against the Magpies when kicking 2.2 and he likely plays on Aaron Francis this week who just isn’t very good. McKay has the footy smarts over Francis and he is due to have a big week. In his last game he played against the Swans he kicked 3.5 and if he kicks straighter on Friday night, he should kick at least three or four.
WILL HAYWARD 2+ GOALS – $3.45/3+ GOALS – $10
Stake accordingly here. Hayward let us down last week but he has kicked two goals in his last two encounters with the Blues and they don’t have a match-up for him considering McGovern and Newman will likely get McLean and Papley with Kemp playing on Isaac Heeney. If someone like Saad or Cottrell play on him, he is hitting the scoreboard. They can’t defend.
ST KILDA VS HAWTHORN – SATURDAY 1.45PM – MARVEL STADIUM
I think the bet here is HAWTHORN AT THE LINE (+26.5) – $1.90. The Saints have only won by more than five goals on two occasions this season and that was against a very poor Gold Coast outfit and the other was against the Bulldogs when they started the season 0-3. They just aren’t a team who really pulverises their opposition as they generally don’t score much themselves. I like the one prop bet here.
JAI NEWCOMBE 25+ DISPOSALS – $1.80
Newcombe has hit this mark in three out of his previous six games and has been very close in two other games when recording 24 disposals. In his games where he has hit the mark of 25, he has played poor clearance and contested ball midfields in GWS, Sydney, Adelaide, and Melbourne. I think he can be the extractor here and I think he will hit this mark of twenty-five.
MELBOURNE VS FREMANTLE – SATURDAY 2.10PM – MCG
I think FREMANTLE AT THE LINE (+18.5) – $1.90 is one of the bets of the round. I think they have a good chance of winning this game so the three-goal head start is a must-bet. Melbourne have been average in contested ball and clearances this season and Clayton Oliver going out is a massive blow for them. I think the Dockers midfield can get on top. I like a few prop bets in this game.
CALEB SERONG 30+ DISPOSALS – $1.65
I think Serong should be closer to $1.30 in this market. He has hit this mark in half of his games this season but he is also one of the best clearance midfielders in the competition and the Demons midfield without Oliver doesn’t strike fear into anyone. I think he will rack them up and be best on ground regardless of whether the Dockers win or lose.
KADE CHANDLER 2+ GOALS – $2.65/3+ GOALS – $6.80
He has had a quiet few weeks has Chandler but I think getting back to the MCG will benefit him and the Dockers don’t have a whole lot of quality small defenders who are good 1v1. I assume Luke Ryan will go to Bayley Fritsch and Walker will go to Pickett which leaves Chandler with a bit of a mismatch.
LACHIE SHULTZ 2+ GOALS – $2/3+ GOALS – $4.30
He is quickly becoming a fan favourite of many and his record against Melbourne is good with him kicking four goals in the opposing fixture last year in a Fremantle win. The likes of Lever, May, and McVee will be occupied with the talls which means only Hibberd is a lockdown small defender. I think one of Shultz or Frederick can hit the scoreboard hard playing on the likes of a Bowey or Salem.
MICHAEL FREDERICK 2+ GOALS – $2.65/3+ GOALS – $6.80
He is another who has a good record against the Demons. He has kicked 2.1 and 2.2 in his two most recent encounters with Melbourne and I don’t think they have a match-up for him again here. He is quick, good in the air, and has ironed out his inaccuracies somewhat this season. At 23 he is starting to enter his prime and he could make a statement to the competition on Saturday afternoon.
GEELONG VS GWS GIANTS – SATURDAY 4.35PM – GMHBA
I’m not interested in betting into any H2H or line markets here. I think Geelong should win rather easily but I don’t see any value in the 40+ market at $1.86 with them still missing the likes of Dangerfield, Guthrie, Duncan, and now Holmes. I like a couple of prop bets.
JEREMY CAMERON MOST GOALS FOR THE GAME – $2.50
His champion teammate in Tom Hawkins is probably the only danger. I can see Buckley doing a good job on Hawkins though and at least contesting well whereas I think Cameron will completely dominate Idun who is the like match-up. He has had a quiet couple of weeks and I think he will bounce back with a big bag here. Mark him down for 5+ goals.
BRAD CLOSE 2+ GOALS – $2.65/3+ GOALS – $6.20
There is every chance the Cats will win this very easily and if that is the case, I think guys like Close, Stengle, and Miers will also hit the scoreboard. The Giants don’t really have a matchup for any of them and I think Close will get rewarded for the stuff he does without the ball in a game like this. He will at least kick a couple.
GOLD COAST VS WESTERN BULLDOGS – SATURDAY 7.25PM – TIO STADIUM
I think the bet here is TOTAL GAME POINTS OVER (+150.5) – $1.90. There is every chance it will be somewhat low scoring but the lowest score the Suns have put on the board in the last month is 64 and the lowest the Dogs have scored is 86. It just seems like a no-brainer this bet. I like some prop bets.
BEN KING 3+ GOALS – $2.80/4+ GOALS – $5.80/5+ GOALS – $14
King has kicked eighteen goals over the last five weeks and is the in-form forward of the competition at the moment. He is probably the hardest match-up of any forward in the competition when he is at his best and I think the likes of Liam Jones and Tim O’Brien may find it hard to stop him if there is any easy ball going inside fifty. He has convincingly beaten the likes of Noah Balta, Tom Barrass, and Harris Andrews in recent weeks and I think he is good value in each of these markets.
BEN AINSWORTH ATGS – $1.70/2+ GOALS – $4.60/3+ GOALS – $14
Ainsworth has kicked three goals in his last two encounters against the Bulldogs and that alone means there is some value in this market. He has had an injury interrupted season so far to date but he has at least had one scoring shot in each game this season and has had two scoring shots in half of his games. I think he can hit the scoreboard and the conditions should suit small forwards.
CODY WEIGHTMAN 2+ GOALS – $2.40/3+ GOALS – $6/4+ GOALS – $17
He will be the first to admit he has had a few poor weeks but I think he can bounce back here. The conditions suit a player like him and the suns have a real lack of any lockdown small defenders. I think he and Arthur Jones can hit the scoreboard hard in this game and drag the Dogs over the line.
WEST COAST VS ESSENDON – SATURDAY 7.40PM – OPTUS STADIUM
I think the TOTAL GAME POINTS OVER (+170.5) – $1.90 seems the bet. Both these teams concede plenty of goals and I don’t think it is going to be the most physical game which generally leads to goals being kicked. I just have no idea who is going to kick them. I like some disposal prop bets.
SAM DURHAM 20+ DISPOSALS – $1.90
I think the Essendon link-up players will find plenty of the footy and he is one of them. He recorded 21 last week when they played their game plan perfectly and I think they will do that again this week and it will be easier to do. I think he can rack them up on the wing and repeat last week.
NIC MARTIN 25+ DISPOSALS – $3
A more speculative bet this one. He had 26 last week and was fantastic and I just think the outside players at Essendon will find plenty of it and that’s why I have him getting 25. He is quick which the Eagles aren’t and I just think he will find himself alone with the footy on the wide ground kicking inside fifty quite a lot.
RICHMOND VS PORT ADELAIDE – SUNDAY 1.10PM – MCG
I like PORT ADELAIDE AT THE LINE (-4.5) – $1.90 here. I think their midfield will dominate the Tigers and that will be the catalyst for them winning the game. Hence, I like some Power midfielders in prop markets.
OLLIE WINES 25+ DISPOSALS – $1.80
Wines has recorded 26 and 32 disposals in his last two games against the Tigers and has hit this mark in half of his games this season. He loves the MCG, he loves playing the Tigers, and their midfield is weaker now than in recent years. I think he will dominate on the inside.
JASON HORNE-FRANCIS 20+ DISPOSALS – $1.75/25+ DISPOSALS – $3.30
Horne-Francis has hit the twenty disposal mark in three of his last four games and they were against bigger and better midfields than the Tigers. He has the explosiveness away from a stoppage that the Tigers struggle to contain and I think he will be keen to have a big game on the MCG against a big club.
LIAM BAKER 20+ DISPOSALS – $1.75/25+ DISPOSALS – $3.30
Baker has tapered off from the numbers he was putting up earlier in the season but I think he can find his best against the Power. He has recorded 26 and 20 disposals in his last two encounters against them and he has hit the twenty mark in three of his last four games. I think he will find plenty of the footy.
COLLINGWOOD VS NORTH MELBOURNE – SUNDAY 3.20PM – MARVEL STADIUM
In the words of the penguins in Madagascar, smile and wave boys, smile and wave. I’ll be leaving this one alone. There is literally no value in any of these markets. If you want to take a SGM include Pies smalls.
ADELAIDE VS BRISBANE – SUNDAY 4.40PM – ADELAIDE OVAL
I don’t like any H2H or line markets in this game. I do like plenty of prop bets though.
JOSH RACHELE/LUKE PEDLAR 2+ GOALS – $2.75/3+ GOALS – $7
Inaccuracy has cost Rachele from having a very big season and I’m backing him to have his kicking boots on at home. The Lions’ small defenders will have their work cut out for them monitoring Rankine and I think Rachele and Pedlar could be the beneficiaries. Rachele has had at least two scoring shots in eight out of the ten games this season and I think he represents value here.
ZAC BAILEY 2+ GOALS – $3/3+ GOALS – $8
Bailey is the man that could slide under the radar for the Lions. The Crows have to deal with Daniher, Hipwood, Gunston, and Charlie Cameron and I think there aren’t many defenders left after that who can man up Bailey. He is an incredibly smart footballer and has kicked two or more goals in half of his games this season. The $3 is insane.
LACHIE NEALE 30+ DISPOSALS – $1.85
This is a pretty easy one. Neale has a terrific record against the Crows as evident by his 36 disposals the last time he played them and the Crows inside midfielders are poor. He should dominate on the inside and find plenty of the footy.
WILL ASHCROFT 25+ DISPOSALS – $2.25
The same explanation belongs here for Ashcroft. I like the Lions inside midfielders here in this game. The Crows are one of the worst clearance and contested ball teams in the league and I think Ashcroft will find plenty of the ball. He recorded 29 last week against a much tougher midfield in the Suns.
So, those are my bets for this weekend? What are your best bets?
Think About What You Could Be Buying Instead. Set A Deposit Limit.