In what has literally been a big week in AFL football, the action waits for nobody as round eleven approaches. We take a step back from the blockbuster weekend that was round ten, however. Carlton Vs Sydney is the most important game of the round considering the ramifications for the loser on Friday Night and the Tigers take to the field without Damien Hardwick for the first time in fourteen years in what should be a fascinating encounter against the white-hot Port Adelaide. Let’s get into it!
SYDNEY VS CARLTON – FRIDAY 7.50PM – SCG
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Both of these teams have lost four of their last five games and sit eleventh and twelfth respectively. The Swans were incredibly lucky to beat Cellar Dwellers North Melbourne last week and both sides are playing a pretty poor brand of football as things currently stand. Tom Hickey is expected to return for the Swans but there aren’t any defensive reinforcements ready to return yet which was much needed this week against the likes of Charlie Curnow and Harry McKay. George Hewett was the sub last week and is expected to return to the 22 whilst Tom De Koning was brilliant at VFL level and shapes as a likely inclusion.
WHERE THE SWANS CAN WIN:
All the talk will be about how Sydney stop the Blues key forwards but the Swans have some weapons of their own inside fifty. Nic Newman has struggled in recent weeks and likely gets the match-up of Tom Papley which is a favourable one for the Swans and one of Will Hayward or Isaac Heeney will likely play on either Jordan Boyd or Sam Docherty which is also very favourable. He hasn’t been in the best of form has Lance Franklin but it wouldn’t surprise me at all if he turned on a vintage display on a Friday night when his team needs it most.
The other area Sydney need to be better in is around the contest. Last week they were beaten by 20 in the clearance battle against a North Melbourne side without their best clearance player. Carlton have got their clearance game going a bit better in recent weeks and if the Swans can’t get first use of the footy, it could be a long night for their undersized defenders if there is quick ball coming inside fifty. They must even up the contested ball and put pressure on the Blues when they have it. If they don’t, I don’t think they can win.
WHERE THE BLUES CAN WIN:
It is stating the obvious but the Blues’ key forwards in Harry McKay and Charlie Curnow should be hitting the scoreboard hard against the likes of Aaron Francis and the undersized combination of Nick Blakey and Robbie Fox. The Swans have conceded small bags against them in each game over the last month and they really seem to struggle against good key forward combinations given their outs and that is exactly what the Blues have. Curnow kicked five the last time he played the Swans and that was when the McCartin brothers and Dane Rampe were playing.
Patrick Cripps and Matthew Kennedy are the other two that hold the key. The Swans have struggled against big-bodied midfielders this season (Dangerfield 31, Green 30, Pendlebury 31, O’meara 27) and these two players are the big-bodied, hard inside midfielders at the Blues. If they win it at the source and get it inside fifty quickly, I don’t think the Blues will lose.
TIP: I think Carlton will win this and easily. Blues by seven goals to end the Swans season.
ST KILDA VS HAWTHORN – SATURDAY 1.45PM – MARVEL STADIUM
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The Saints come into this game being fifth on the ladder whilst the Hawks are sixteenth but the Saints’ form has been very patchy over the last five weeks. They have won three out of their last five but those three wins have been unconvincing considering it was a struggle for them to get over Carlton, North Melbourne, and GWS who are all bottom-eight teams currently. Tim Membrey will return for the Saints to replace Mitch Owens whilst Harry Morrison is expected to return for the Hawks.
WHERE THE SAINTS CAN WIN:
In typical Ross Lyon style, the Saints can and should win this game by strangling the Hawks’ ball movement and restricting their scoring ability. Aside from the Crows game a fortnight ago the Saints have kept teams to 60, 83, 34, and 80 in the last month and the Hawks rank sixteenth in points per game. Admittedly, that was without their best forward Mitch Lewis for the majority of the season, but aside from him and Luke Bruest, the cupboard is bare for scoring options at the Hawks. As long as the Saints put some pressure on the ball carrier and even up the contested ball, I think their defensive system will hold up against a young Hawthorn side that is still perfecting their craft.
WHERE HAWTHORN CAN WIN:
The Hawks inside brigade is brilliant at restricting opposition clearances and contested ball and this week they face the worst clearance team in the competition in the Saints. They beat the Bulldogs’ inside brigade a few weeks back and have matched it with both Fremantle and Melbourne’s inside midfielders in the last month. The likes of Jai Newcombe, James Worpel, Will Day, and Connor Nash are big bodies and if they can really dominate in the contest and get first use of the ball the Hawks may be able to spring an upset. I think they will get on top in this area but it will just depend on whether they can translate that to scoring opportunities as they have struggled to do that at times this season.
TIP: I think this will be much closer than most expect. Saints by fourteen points in a low-scoring game.
MELBOURNE VS FREMANTLE – SATURDAY 2.10PM – MCG
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Both these teams will be confident based on recent form. Melbourne has won four of their last five and were beaten last week in a heartbreaker against the Power in Adelaide whilst Fremantle have won their last three and were excellent against Geelong last week. Clayton Oliver and Lachie Hunter are two big outs for the Demons and Tom Sparrow and James Jordon are expected to replace them. It is hard to see the Dockers making any changes to the 22 from last week. Champion Nathan Fyfe is expected to play a full game this week.
WHERE MELBOURNE CAN WIN:
The Demons rank first in points per game this season and the Dockers rank twelfth for points scored against which could spell trouble if the Dockers aren’t careful. The Melbourne small forwards are the guys who do the damage. Bayle Fritsch has kicked twenty goals for the season and Kysaiah Pickett and Kade Chandler have combined for thirty-one goals. The likes of Luke Ryan, Brandon Walker, and Hayden Young will have their work cut out for them, especially given the likely wet conditions.
The Demons will be relying on Christian Petracca more than ever before this week with the absence of Clayton Oliver. Petracca has been the second-best inside midfielder at Melbourne this season and outside of him and Jack Viney there aren’t many players in this team who win their own ball. They rank twelfth in clearances per game and I think their record flatters them at the moment. Their midfield needs to lift. It’s a big game for them. Lose, and they’ll be potentially only a game inside the eight.
WHERE THE DOCKERS CAN WIN:
The clearance and contested ball is the key for the Dockers. They will have some confidence purely from the fact that they beat the Demons at this ground last year and that they rank sixth in clearances per game in the competition whilst the Demons rank twelfth and are missing their best inside midfielder. Caleb Serong is the key for the Dockers. He is averaging thirty disposals per game and ranks fourth in clearances per game and fourth for total inside 50s. If he can do what he did last week again against a weakened Melbourne midfield (28 disposals, a goal, and ten clearances) then the Dockers only need the likes of Andrew Brayshaw and Jaeger O’meara to come to the party in order to gain complete ascendancy in this area.
The small forwards for the Dockers have also been fantastic in recent weeks. The Demons smalls will need to be on high alert considering the fact that the likes of Trent Rivers and Jake Bowey like to run off and create. Walters, Schultz, and Frederick have combined for forty-five goals in the first half of the season which is a very good return.
TIP: I think this will be extremely close. I’m tipping the upset. Fremantle by a kick.
GEELONG VS GWS GIANTS – SATURDAY 4.35PM – GMHBA
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Both these teams are injury-ravaged at this point and their results over the last few weeks show it. The Cats have lost their last two and the Giants have lost their last three. Josh Kelly, Harry Himmelberg, and Nick Haynes go out for the Giants whilst Max Holmes is out for the Geelong midfield. The good news for the Cats is that they are expected to bring back Patrick Dangerfield and Sam De Koning this week.
WHERE THE CATS CAN WIN:
Both teams’ midfields are relatively poor (considering injuries) currently which means I think they cancel each other out to some degree. Due to this, the Cats will get enough ball forward and I think Tom Hawkins and Jeremy Cameron can dine out before dinner on Saturday afternoon. Hawkins kicked 3.2 in a loss last week and Cameron 0.4 which is very uncharacteristic of him. This week, they play against a defence that is missing their two best defenders. Jack Buckley will get the job on Tom Hawkins, which is already favourable for the Cats, but even more favourable is Jeremy Cameron who likely gets the match-up of Connor Idun who stands at 191cm and 91kgs. I can see Cameron kicking a pretty big bag on an undersized and to be quite frank, an average footballer. Brad Close and Tyson Stengle should also enjoy favourable matchups considering the Giants don’t have a lockdown small defender.
WHERE THE GIANTS CAN WIN:
The Giants’ star players really need to dominate in order to be a chance of winning this game. Tom Green and Stephen Coniglio need to dominate throughout the middle of the ground against a weakened Geelong midfield and the likes of Toby Greene and Jesse Hogan need to probably combine for nine or ten goals between them for this team to win. It just doesn’t seem likely at all and there isn’t a whole lot more I can add to the fact that they will probably be beaten convincingly.
TIP: This one could get ugly. Geelong by about ten goals. Rain might save the Giants.
GOLD COAST VS WESTERN BULLDOGS – SATURDAY 7.25PM – TIO STADIUM
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The Dogs have won five in a row and now sit inside the top six and two games inside the eight in what has been a fantastic two months for the club. Gold Coast have won three of their last five and in their two losses they probably should have beaten Melbourne and they were right in it against the Lions last week at 3QT. Sean Lemmens goes out for the Suns with Lachie Weller likely to return and Jason Johannisen will go out for the Dogs.
WHERE THE SUNS CAN WIN:
Both these teams play a similar style which is based around clearance and contested ball and then setting that up for both attack and defence. The Bulldogs rank second in clearances per game and the Suns rank third so I think that cancels each other out and the game will be won and lost in the respective forward and defensive fifties for both teams. The Suns have an incredibly tall forward line (even taller than the Dogs) with King, Day, Casboult, and Lukosius in there. All of those players are over 195cm tall and it will throw up something different against what has been the best defence in the competition over the last six weeks. I think there may be a chink in the armour and this might be it. They have only lost three games this season and two of them were against very tall forward lines. This is where the Suns can get them. Ben King is the main danger. He has kicked eighteen goals in the last five weeks and will be very hard to stop.
WHERE THE DOGS CAN WIN:
The Dogs structure their game plan around defence but it might be their own forward fifty who win them the game on Saturday night. The Suns have struggled to contain good and quality small forwards this season and the likes of Cody Weightman and Arthur Jones loom large in this contest. Jamarra Ugle-Hagan is likely to get the match-up on Mac Andrew and it must be a concern for the Suns. The youngster will be a very good AFL player but I’m not sure he is a defender. He can get lost very easily back there and we have already seen how smart Ugle-Hagan is inside the forward fifty. I think whichever forward group stands up to be counted and takes their opportunities will win this game.
TIP: I think it will be low-scoring and close. Bulldogs by two goals on a dewy night in Darwin.
WEST COAST VS ESSENDON – SATURDAY 7.40PM – OPTUS STADIUM
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The Bombers travel West after a come-from-behind win over Richmond last week at the MCG and sit just outside the eight, whilst the Eagles have won one game all season and were beaten by 116 points last week against the sixteenth-placed Hawks. Dylan Shiel and Jayden Laverde are tests for the Bombers whilst the Eagles expect Tom Barrass, Luke Edwards, and Shannon Hurn to return this week.
WHERE THE BOMBERS CAN WIN:
Essendon are essentially better than West Coast everywhere you look. They rank fifth in disposals per game and their game plan is to control possession by using precision kicking which can then let them dictate how the game is played and set up both their offence and defence on the back of it. They executed this perfectly last week against the Tigers when beating them by sixty-five in the uncontested possession count and considering the Eagles rank eighteenth in disposals per game and can’t really win their own ball, it spells trouble for them. I think the Essendon midfielders in Merrett, Caldwell, Martin, and Stringer can get on top on the inside and the likes of Weideman, Perkins, Stringer, Menzie, and Langford should be able to kick a pretty big score.
WHERE THE EAGLES CAN WIN:
We are probably clutching at straws no matter what here but if the Eagles are to get within five goals their two forwards in Oscar Allen and Jake Waterman need to hit the scoreboard hard. Allen has been outstanding this season and I think he is the match up that a player like Brandon Zerk-Thatcher hates. If they can find him some 1v1 contest in the forward fifty he will keep them in it for a while. He would be leading the Coleman if he was playing in a better team.
TIP: Essendon by plenty. Another ugly Loss for the Eagles is incoming.
RICHMOND VS PORT ADELAIDE – SUNDAY 1.10PM – MCG
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The Tigers have had a tumultuous week after Damien Hardwick quit his post as the senior coach after a one-point loss to the Bombers. The Tigers have won two of their last three and are playing better football than they were early in the season, however. They run into a Port Adelaide team that is 8-2 and in third place on the ladder. Tom Jonas misses through suspension for the Power whilst I don’t expect any changes at the Tigers.
WHERE THE TIGERS CAN WIN:
The Tigers need to improve in two areas and quickly. Their entries going inside fifty all season have been incredibly poor. They rank fourth in inside 50s per game yet rank fifteenth in points per game which shows a disconnect all over the ground. The Tigers need to lower their eyes when going forward and get it into the hands of the players they want having the ball in the likes of Dustin Martin, Daniel Rioli, Nick Vlastuin, and Jack Graham. The forwards also need to create space for each other. The number of times the Tigers bombed it to an ageing Jack Reiwoldt when he was completely outnumbered was frustrating for even a neutral to watch last weekend. Samson Ryan needs to be a presence this week and the small forwards simply must lead up at the ball carrier.
The other area is clearance. The Tigers rank seventeenth for clearances this season and it is just killing them considering they don’t win any, yet they let the opposition waltz out of there unopposed at times. This happened four or five times in the last quarter at stoppages and centre bounces and it was the reason why they lost the game. Taranto is fighting the good fight with absolutely no help. Bolton must keep playing well and guys like Jack Ross, Jack Graham, and the Champion in Trent Cotchin must start winning contested ball.
WHERE THE POWER CAN WIN:
The Power play a game set up by their strength in the clearances and this is where they can really get on top of the Tigers. They rank fourth in clearances per game and have a mix of the bull inside midfielders in Ollie Wines and Jason Horne-Francis, and then the speed and silk of Zak Butters and Connor Rozee. It is hard to see the Tigers just flicking a switch in this area of the game as they haven’t all season. I think the Port Adelaide midfielders will dine out on the Tigers’ carcass on Sunday afternoon and put the nail in the Tigers’ coffin for season 2023.
The other area they can get the Tigers is in their defensive fifty. The likes of Allir Allir, Trent McKenzie, Miles Bergman, and Dylan Williams will be able to intercept at will considering the Tigers only have one key forward and he can barely jump. They will intercept and rebound at will and the Power forwards will kick a winning score off the back of repeat inside fifty entries.
TIP: Port Adelaide should be winning. The Power by five goals.
COLLINGWOOD VS NORTH MELBOURNE – SUNDAY 3.20PM – MARVEL STADIUM
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The Magpies sit a game clear on top of the ladder and are clearly the benchmark in 2023. They play a Kangaroo outfit who threw the game away against Sydney last week but do sit seventeenth with a record of 2-8. Liam Shiels goes out for the Kangaroos and I expect either Cameron Zurhaar or Ben Cunnington to replace him depending on fitness. There won’t be any change for the Pies.
WHERE COLLINGWOOD CAN WIN:
The Magpies have encapsulated the game plan of the Tigers in 2017 but are probably scoring more freely than the Tigers were. They rank fifth for points per game and are the second-best defensive team in the competition. They have completely shut down teams this season by being ranked first for least inside fifties conceded and third in least clearances conceded which essentially means they are out marking or defending the ball well before it enters their own fifty and not letting the opposition get first hands on it first which allows them to control possession and therefore the tempo of the game. The likes of Jordan De Goey, Darcy Moore, Bobby Hill, Nathan Murphy, and Mason Cox are all having career-best seasons and it is hard to see that changing against North Melbourne. They will restrict their ball movement and dominate around the ball on the way to a big win.
WHERE THE KANGAROOS CAN WIN:
The Kangaroos are generally a good clearance team and they simply must break even in this area of the ground to give their forwards and defenders an opportunity to compete. The likes of Jy Simpkin, Ben Cunnington, and Hugh Greenwood need to put their head over it for their younger teammates and get it going their way. If they can get it into the hands of the likes of Sheezel, Stephenson, and McDonald they might be able to find good entries going forward. It does seem very unlikely that they will get within five or six goals though.
TIP: Collingwood to win by 40+. It will be a celebration of Steele Sidebottom in game 300.
ADELAIDE VS BRISBANE – SUNDAY 4.40PM – ADELAIDE OVAL
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The footy gods might make us wait for the best game of the round with the last game of the round. The Crows come into this game winning just two of their last five but still sitting inside the eight whilst the Lions come into this game off five straight wins and sit second on the ladder. Daniel Rich, Darcy Gardiner, and Devon Robertson are the likely inclusions for the Lions. Defensive revelation Jack Payne goes out injured. Taylor Walker, Tom Doedee, and Riley Thilthorpe return for the Crows.
WHERE THE CROWS CAN WIN:
The one thing Adelaide do very well is take the most of their inside fifties and they score heavily. They are ranked sixth in points per game and rank fourteenth for inside 50s per game which shows how good that forward six functions. The Lions are a good defensive set up but Darcy Gardiner plays his first game of the season against a very good forward in Darcy Fogarty and might find it difficult to contain him, whilst not many teams boast the small forwards of the Crows in Izak Rankine, Josh Rachele, and Luke Pedlar. One of them is going to get a favourable match-up. Starcevich is a brilliant defender and can clamp one but the likes of Coleman and McKenna like to run and create and aren’t very defensively minded. This could come back to bite them if the other smalls can find some space. The Crows need to break even in the midfield and get it in quick and often to their forward six who can kick a winning score.
WHERE THE LIONS CAN WIN:
Brisbane are the best midfield in the competition for clearances and contested ball and the Crows rank seventh but are without an out-and-out midfielder besides Rory Laird. The likes of Lachie Neale, Josh Dunkley, and Will Ashcroft are just dominant in this area of the game and if the Lions get first use and get it into their forward six quickly, they will pose all sorts of problems for the Adelaide defence. They are ranked third in points per game this season and have two of the best in-form forwards in the game in Joe Daniher and Charlie Cameron. The Crows defenders look to match up okay on paper but the main issue for them is that they don’t have any intercept defenders and they are all going to have to play essentially 1v1. Play a zone defence against the Lions when you can’t beat them at contested ball at your own peril. They should be flag favourites.
TIP: Should be a cracking game. Brisbane by eighteen points. The Crows will fight hard but just miss out.