Yep, I know, I had yet another nudie run last weekend. But we are back at my home track and I am looking to bounce back with plenty of wins! I will also be heading back to the track to be trackside at a meeting for the first time since Queen Elizabeth Stakes Day and I am excited to get stuck back in. Let’s get into it!
Track Report: The Rosehill track should dry right out and be a Good 4 by Race 1. The rail is also out 3 metres for the entire course, which means there could be a slight advantage to leaders, but considering we haven’t seen a dry Rosehill for a while, we should get some fair racing.
Race 1 – 1200m Schweppes Hcp
I’m going to stick with Namesake here. Ran well without winning last start behind a decent horse in its own right in the form of Chrysaor. Beat Snapback home as well, which shows ability to me. Plus, its debut was a very good win at Warwick Farm, so we have seen that it can get the job done in the past. Should sit just off them and then launch late.
Celestial Legend jumps to Saturday grade here after debuting at Midweek company and while he didn’t win, the sectionals he reeled off were the fastest of the entire meeting. With a better steer and a clear lane to the line, he could run over the top of them late.
Joey D’Or intrigues me here. Promising 2YO Ozzmosis was meant to debut here, but Bjorn has sided with his other 2YO prospect instead. Does that say he is more confident in this horse? Ozzmosis looks like he can be really good, so if this horse is better, I will be watching him in the yard and the market.
Jagjit on debut for the Waterhouse camp and Waterhouse 2YOs are always to be respected so I’ll have it round out the selections.
Selections: 1-2-6-5
Suggested Bet: Namesake Win
Race 2 – 1400M Midway (Bm72)
There isn’t a horse having a more unlucky prep at the moment than Diamond Diesel. 3 runs this prep and 3 times he has been trapped in traffic and only got clear late with some ripping sectionals, albeit coming up short each of those times. Wider alley should see it not getting caught in traffic, it just can’t swing too wide going around the Rosehill dogbone.
Kyeema is the interesting one here. UK galloper that had a respectable debut it found himself bogged down on a wet track against known swimmers. Up in distance and fitter now will definitely be a positive and he will be the main danger as this is the distance he has both career wins at.
Miss Einstein is overs in my mind. She is quite the consistent mare and I think going up to Queensland was a weird move. Back to a more familiar track and better conditions. She should be quite strong late.
Mayrose is another one who will put in a strong run late. Great run in his 3rd start of the prep and then proceeded to come 3rd behind a very smart Quinella, both of whom have run really well since. She rounds out selections in a very open field.
Selections: 13-1-7-3
Suggested Bet: Diamond Diesel Each Way
Race 3 – 1200M Tab Highway Hcp (C3)
Dollar Magic for me. This mare has shown great ability to handle a significant weight, and I am confident in supporting her. She recently performed exceptionally well in a competitive race at Hawkesbury and then continued her winning streak in Dubbo with an impressive victory and a commendable time. In this upcoming race, she is expected to maintain a prominent position throughout the race and, without a doubt, she will be difficult to catch.
Preemptory is more of a wet tracker, but gee he has been consistent this prep. Another top weight that will need a 3kg weight claim to compete. Back in distance and strong on this track will have him well suited. Hannah Williams is flying right now, especially in this grade, so he’ll most likely get a great ride.
Chase My Crown is knocking on the door for a win and could find it here. He can go in all conditions and loves this distance, being in the money 5/6 starts despite never winning. However, he has always had troubles at this track, but that was mostly due to bad barriers. Draws to do no work and will put in an honest performance.
Deni Gal is rough, but she is never far away from the finish. She should be amongst the pack come the finish.
Selections: 2-1-6-15
Suggested Bet: Dollar Magic Win
Race 4 – 1200M Tab (Bm78)
Shalailed may only have a single win on the board, but that’s because he’s been chasing some top 3YO’s around and he’s been running well mind you. He has only missed the top 3 on 2 occasions in all 10 of his career starts. I expect him to be in the finish.
Devil’s Throat is a horse I have a lot of time for despite a lacklustre summer prep. He will be in the right part of the track, right behind a hectic pace that he can use to run over the top of them. The latest trial he ran in was stacked with some of the best sprinters in the country, I am talking Giga Kick and Quantico level good. He came 4th in that and looked really sharp, he does his best work fresh and can play a part here.
Wewillrock is the X Factor. The Kiwi import makes their Aussie debut here at his favourite distance. The Kiwis made us look subpar during the Autumn Carnival and they can potentially do it again. However, he has to lump a huge weight.
Conrad comes here after a dominant Midway victory that showed potential to rise up through the grades to be better than BM 70-80 company. Jasper Franklin retains the ride and he will be competitive.
Race 5 – 2000M The Agency Real Estate (Bm72)
Starriane for me. From Group 1 to BM72? That is an insane drop in class, especially when she ran pretty competitively. She was only 2 lengths off of the finish and now she contests a run of the mill race at Rosehill. She will sit amongst the midfield and then try and put in a lunge at the line late. She’ll do me.
Tradition is the favourite after a solid start to the prep. First up he came 5th on a soaked Kembla deck and he didn’t really get a chance to get involved. 2nd up he ran better when up in trip and went a lot better. Further up in trip and he should be best suited over the 10-furlong mark. He is the only one I can see beating Starriane.
Domingo and Robusto will round out selections.
Selections: 4-2-6-7
Suggested Bet: Starriane Win
Race 6 – 1500M Toyota Forklifts (Bm72)
Probably the race I am looking forward to the most on the day with some strong Benchmark talent going around.
Rediener is the one I want to be with here and I am confident he gets the choccies as he is racing way above this level in my opinion. He can be one to rise through the ranks and could be at listed quality races by Winters end. Just got too far back last start but the turn of foot remained as impressive as it has been all prep. The money continues to be crunched so clearly the market loves it. I am happy to be in its corner.
I love Sons of Frankel and that fits the bill for Money In The Sky who won for us when I tipped him last start mind you, so I will be kicking myself if he comes out and wins here as well. But the switch to Jenny Duggan on board with a 60kg weight has me jumping off. Watch me Mock it into winning now.
Token Capitalist is of course the one who defeated Rediener last start so I immediately respect his winning chances as well. Not to mention he has had a super consistent prep where he has only finished out of the money once from 5 starts and the furthest he has finished back is a couple of lengths. I think he will be right in the finish.
Lekvarte has to carry a huge weight from a negative barrier, but she has been up forever and a half purely because she keeps putting in positive performances, so I cannot leave her out of the selections.
Selections: 5-4-7-1
Suggested Bet: Rediener Win (BEST BET)
Race 7 – 2400M Vale Ian Finn (Bm78)
Strawberry Rock has the best form in my opinion. 4 weeks ago he was racing in an 1800m contest at the standalone Hawkesbury meeting and finishing just 3 lengths off the winner and Pretty Amazing. The 2nd horse, Hometruths came out and won its next start emphatically, and the horse who came 9th, Unspoken, recently put in a very strong run at Scone. The form line reads strong and I think with the added fitness and being up in distance will suit this horse excellently.
Al Abair is the QLD raider and Waller must be confident in him if he has brought him back down to HQ. Has been running well this prep with two victories and two narrow losses. Gets his ideal conditions and should slot right into the midfield with some cover and Jasper Franklin will put every effort possible to make the most of that 3kg claim in the final stages.
Union Gap has started the prep with 2 straight victories at the midweek level. They were strong victories as well, both of which he was the heavy favourite and looks to be an import to watch going forward for sure. I will kick myself if it gets up, but this could be another instance of the Europeans showing us how it is done amongst the staying ranks if they give him a soft lead.
Sir Lamorak rounds out selections due to a very consistent prep.
Selections: 3-1-6-8
Suggested Bet: Strawberry Rock Each Way
Race 8 – 1500m Precise Air (Bm88)
Substantial will do me. Has the form lines behind Democracy Manifest who also listed to race here but most likely scratches. Also has strong runs behind Maotai and Tamerlane. He will definitely run out the distance, as he was winning beyond this over in Europe in a dominant fashion.
Cotehele is a good enough horse to be contesting here despite a less-than-impressive start to the campaign. However, both of those starts came on wet ground and he is a dry tracker through and through.
High Court has the form behind Banju and I respect that horse most than most, so I feel the current $17 price is a touch of overs. Grant Buckley knows this horse better than anyone so I like that the camp has stuck by him here. Was running really well in town during the summer and a win here wouldn’t shock.
Niffler is a super consistent horse who loves to run 1st up. 1500 is a distance I have always felt doesn’t suit her, but she has won over it before and can do it again at a big price.
Selections: 12-6-8-11
Suggested Bet: Substantial Each Way
Race 9 – 2000M Lord Mayors Cup
The main event of the day here and I am siding with the Neasham import who is still looking to grab a maiden win in Australia – Bois D’Argent. He has never once finished out of the money at the 2000m mark and has been building in fitness and ability with every run. Ran really well here on Aussie debut and I expect a similar run where he sits back in the pack and runs strongly down the outside.
Navajo Peak is the horse in form and must be respected. Favourite for a reason, with the soft draw he will get an easy lead. Has been very close to winning his last two starts after a strong win in QLD. 2/2 at this distance and will be super competitive.
Wicklow loves this track as he has 4 wins from 8 goes at Rosehill. Missed the start and still thundered home to win the Wagga Cup over some very talented horses. Ready to peak 4th up and Brett Prebble is flying at the moment so I would expect him to be right in the finish.
Last time Thalassophile was at this track and trip he won in impressive fashion at 58kg. Drops 5kg here with the jump up in grade and gets in form Dylan Gibbons on as well. Should park himself right behind the speed and be strong late.
Race 10 – 1200M Furphy (Bm78
Pretty Wild in the get-out stakes. She has been struggling lately, however, her recent return to the track at Rosehill three weeks ago was far from ideal. The prevailing market sentiment suggested that she would struggle on the boggy terrain, and unfortunately, she lived up to those expectations. She failed to find her rhythm and ended up finishing down the track behind Cruel Summer, leaving her supporters disheartened.
Bitcoin Baby is a very consistent mare that should be competitive at a big price here. Loves to get onto a good track, as she will get here and she does her best work when fresh, which she will be here after a little bit of a let-up. She will be sitting right off the pace and try and run over the top of them late.
Winning Verse and Anagain will be rounding out selections. They share the top of the market at a very open $6.50 price and will both be competitive.
Selections: 10-2-4-16
Suggested Bet: Pretty Wild Each Way
Top Selections For The Card
Race 1: Namesake
Race 2: Diamond Diesel
Race 3: Dollar Magic
Race 4: Shalailed
Race 5: Starriane
Race 6: Rediener (BEST BET)
Race 7: Substantial
Race 8: Strawberry Rock
Race 9: Bois D’Argent
Race 10: Pretty Wild
Quaddie
Race 7:1,2,3,6,8,9,11
Race 8:6,8,11,12,22
Race 9:4,5,6,9,10,13
Race 10:2,4,7,10,16
$50 gets you 4%
So, those are my tips for this weekend? What are your best bets?
Think About What You Could Be Buying Instead. Set A Deposit Limit.