The first of the bye rounds awaits us in Round 12 of the AFL season but we still have seven games of footy to preview. The match of the round is probably a tie between Melbourne Vs Carlton on Friday Night Football and the Western Bulldogs Vs Geelong on Saturday Night football. As usual, we will preview every game and hopefully tip them all right. Let’s get into it!
MELBOURNE VS CARLTON – FRIDAY 7.50PM – MCG
The pressure on Michael Voss and his men is palpable. Carlton has lost their last four games and sits thirteenth on the ladder with no aspect of their game working well. They will be feeling the pinch with injury this week after a disastrous night at the SCG when Nic Newman, Marc Pittonet, George Hewett, and Ollie Hollands are out of the side. Paddy Dow, Lochie O’Brien, Jack Silvagni, and Zac Fisher are the expected ins. The Demons are also staring down the barrel of three straight losses after going down to Port Adelaide and Fremantle in the last fortnight and will still be without their best player in Clayton Oliver. It is a massive game for both clubs’ seasons and at this point of the season is a proper eight-point game.
WHERE MELBOURNE CAN WIN:
Melbourne, although out of form, still have the best team to opponent points per game differential and they are the fourth-best defensive team in the competition. The way Carlton has moved the ball over the last six weeks has been very poor and Melbourne loves playing against teams who just bomb it in long going forward because the likes of Jake Lever, Trent Rivers, and Steven May are very good intercept defenders. If the Demons can apply pressure throughout the middle of the ground and in their own forward fifty, I think the Blues will struggle to move the ball with any fluency which will obviously make it harder to score.
The other area that really stands out as a weakness for the Blues and a strength for the Demons is that the Blues don’t really have any pure lockdown small defenders. Kysaiah Pickett and Kade Chandler have combined for thirty-three goals in the first half of the season and without Nic Newman in the side it seems as though Alex Cincotta and Sam Docherty/Jordan Boyd will get the job on the two. Pickett broke Navy Blue hearts last year and it would not surprise if he did it again on Friday night.
WHERE CARLTON CAN WIN:
Without Clayton Oliver this Melbourne midfield is very susceptible to being beaten around the clearances and in contested ball and Carlton have got this part of their game going again over the last month. Patrick Cripps needs to lead the way for the Blues as their underfire captain. He is a clearance and contested ball beast and if he can really get a stranglehold on the game and throughout the contest it could allow Carlton to control possession and to be in more space when they do get it which should allow for better decision-making going forward. Matt Kennedy will get more midfield minutes and simply must win contested ball like he was in 2022 for the Blues to win this game. Controlling possession by winning the contested ball is the recipe for success for Carlton. Control the ball, and be brave with ball in hand and I think they can get it into the hands of McKay and Curnow enough. They just need to kick straight.
TIP: It won’t be a big margin but I think the Demons will win. Melbourne by three goals.
PORT ADELAIDE VS HAWTHORN – SATURDAY 1.45PM – ADELAIDE OVAL
Port Adelaide are arguably the in-form team of the competition as things currently stand and are on a seven-game winning streak after a few scares at the MCG last week. Todd Marshall and Charlie Dixon will both be tested through the week to see if they are available to play. Hawthorn have won their last two against West Coast and St Kilda and will be full of confidence coming into this. Captain James Sicily will miss after being given a one-match suspension and I don’t expect a like-for-like replacement.
WHERE THE POWER CAN WIN:
I think the Power have the Hawks covered essentially all over the ground. The one thing the Hawks pride themselves on is their contest and work and restricting opposition clearance numbers but Port Adelaide are also very strong in this area ranking fourth in clearances per game and fifth in team to opponent clearances per game differential. If the Power can break even in the midfield with the likes of Zak Butters, Ollie Wines, and Willem Drew, the Hawks look very susceptible in the defensive half with James Sicily missing. He was the reason they won last week (43 disposals, sixteen marks) and without him the likes of Sam Frost and James Blanck look vulnerable against Jeremy Finlayson (17 goals) and Todd Marshall (eleven goals from eight games). Break even in the midfield and I don’t think the Hawks will be able to hold together down back considering they are the fourth-worst defensive team in the league.
WHERE HAWTHORN CAN WIN:
If the Hawks can break even throughout the middle of the ground (which they have done for most of the season) they do have some weapons forward with certain players finding form and returning from injury. Mitch Lewis has the potential to be the best forward in the competition and is starting to prove that kicking thirteen goals from five games. He should only get better over the course of the season and the Port Adelaide defence is undersized and he is the type of forward that can take advantage of it. The small forwards like Luke Bruest (eighteen goals) and Tyler Brockman (nine goals) could also play a role in the game if the Hawks are to be competitive. The Power have struggled against small forwards this season and if the Hawks can get it inside fifty enough, they should be able to hot the scoreboard.
TIP: The Power should be way too good. Port Adelaide by seven or eight goals.
WEST COAST VS COLLINGWOOD – SATURDAY 4.35PM – OPTUS STADIUM
Well, aren’t these two teams at the opposite end of the spectrum. The Eagles have won one game all season while the Magpies have lost one game all season and are a game clear on top of the ladder and three games clear of fourth. Billy Frampton and Harvey Harrison come in for the Pies with Jamie Elliot and Steele Sidebottom going out, whilst Callum Jamieson comes back in for the Eagles to replace Luke Edwards.
WHERE WEST COAST CAN WIN:
We are going to be clutching at straws here. The Eagles at the conclusion of this season may be rated as one of the worst teams ever and I think that is a fair assessment. They have ageing champions in Tim Kelly, Dom Sheed, and Elliot Yeo who they need to lift massively in order for them to measure up in this game. They need to break even in the middle of the ground and then get it in quick to Oscar Allen (29 goals) and Jake Waterman (eleven goals) who have both been very good considering the Eagles rank last in the competition for inside 50s. They simply must get their hands on the footy and move it quickly if they are to have any chance, but that doesn’t look like happening considering their recent form.
WHERE COLLINGWOOD CAN WIN:
The Magpies are the best team in the competition currently and they have West Coast beaten in basically every area of the ground. They are ranked as the best defensive team in the competition and they rank second in team to opponent points per game differential. It is hard to see the Eagles being able to contain all of Brody Mihocek, Mason Cox, and Ash Johnson considering they only have one recognised key defender and the Magpie midfielders in Jordan DeGoey, Tom Mitchell, and Taylor Adams should be able to dominate on the inside which should see them get repeat inside 50s. I can’t see a weakness in the Collingwood set up currently and that’s the best thing about their system. They might not have all the big names but they have the best system since the 2017 Tigers and they are the Premiership favourites for a reason.
TIP: The Pies will be far too good. A Collingwood cakewalk by over sixty points is my tip.
WESTERN BULLDOGS VS GEELONG – SATURDAY 7.25PM – MARVEL STADIUM
Another eight-point game awaits us here on Saturday Night. The Bulldogs have won four of their last five games and now sit sixth on the ladder whilst the Cats have dropped their last three and find themselves outside of the eight in their Premiership defence. Adam Treloar is a huge in for the Dogs whilst Esava Ratugolea is a huge out for the Cats. The dogs must win to keep in touch with the top four and the Cats must win to stay in touch with the top eight.
WHERE THE BULLDOGS CAN WIN:
With the injuries the Cats have throughout their midfield (Dangerfield, Guthrie, Duncan, and Holmes all missing) the Bulldogs should be ready to dominate through the midfield in the clearance and contested ball area of the game. The Cats have been beaten convincingly in this area in the last fortnight and the Bulldogs have some of the best inside midfielders in the game, evidenced by them ranking second in clearances per game. The likes of Marcus Bontempelli (third in total clearances in the competition) and Tom Liberatore (fourth in stoppage clearances per game) should be able to dominate an inexperienced Geelong midfield and get in quick to the Dogs forward line.
The other area the Dogs may be able to target is the Cats’ undersized defence. With Esava Ratugolea missing a lot of the defensive responsibilities will lay on the shoulders of Sam De Koning. He is only one man though and the other two (assumedly) Cats key defenders in Jake Kolodjashnij (193cm and 96kgs) and Tom Stewart (190cm and 88kgs) will be giving away plenty of height and weight against the likes of Jamarra Ugle-Hagan (197cm and 92kgs) and Rory Lobb (207cm and 107kgs). If the Dogs’ midfield do get on top, I think the Cats’ defenders will struggle against the Dogs’ key forwards.
WHERE GEELONG CAN WIN:
If the Cats midfield can get enough ball inside fifty the Geelong forward line can always kick a winning score. Yes, the Dogs have been brilliant in defence this season, but they haven’t played a forward line with this capability either. The match-ups the Cats will try and isolate are Tom Hawkins and Gary Rohan on Tim O’Brien and Ryan Gardner. Hawkins has a good record against the Bulldogs and if the Cats can find him some one-on-one opportunities, he could be the match-winner. The Dogs’ key defenders won’t be able to go with him physically and they will rely on team defence in order to stop him which might be hard considering they also need to keep a superstar in Jeremy Cameron quiet along with Gary Rohan and Tyson Stengle.
TIP: I think the Dogs will be too good for the Cats. Bulldogs by twenty-eight points.
GOLD COAST VS ADELAIDE – SATURDAY 7.30PM – TIO STADIUM
The Suns have won three of their last five and did a brilliant job when beating the Bulldogs last week who are one of the in-form teams of the competition. The struggle for the Suns has been stringing together wins and if they do win this game, they will be knocking on the door of the eight. Adelaide bounced back from a disappointing loss against the Dogs a fortnight ago when beating a Premiership contender in Brisbane last week and find themselves in the eight. Another win here and they won’t be far away from the top four but more importantly will increase their buffer in the eight.
WHERE GOLD COAST CAN WIN:
The Suns base their game on winning clearance and contested ball (rank third in both areas across the competition) and that plan won’t change on Saturday Night. Matt Rowell ranks second in total clearances across the competition and Noah Anderson ranks fifth in total clearances across the league and if they can get on top like they did last weekend against a very good clearance and contested ball team in the Western Bulldogs then the Crows will find it hard to gain possession and therefore find it hard to kick a winning score against two very underrated key defenders in Charlie Ballard and Sam Collins.
The other factor that must be spoken about is Suns’ key forwards in Ben King and Jack Lukosisus. King has kicked twenty-one goals over the last six weeks and is arguably the best forward in the competition at the moment and Lukosius is coming off a five-goal haul against the Bulldogs. They are going to be hard to contain.
WHERE ADELAIDE CAN WIN:
The Crows have improved their contested ball work over the last few weeks and they must be able to at least hold their own against the midfield bulls of the Suns. If they can do this, the Adelaide forward line is the most potent in the competition. They seventh for points per game and fourteenth for inside 50s per game which goes to show that they do score when it goes in there. The Suns have struggled against small forwards this season and the Crows have some very talented small forwards in Izak Rankine, Josh Rachele, and Luke Pedlar. If the Suns don’t win the contested ball and control possession, I think they will struggle to contain the Adelaide forward line. The game rests on the back of Jordan Dawson and Rory Laird for the Crows.
TIP: I think this will be a high-scoring, back-and-forth game. Suns by ten points.
GWS GIANTS VS RICHMOND – SUNDAY 1.10PM – GIANTS STADIUM
The Giants have lost three of their last four and sit in fourteenth place whilst the Tigers have won just the three games this season and sit in fifteenth place. Noah Cumberland is an expected in for the Tigers and Harry Himmelberg is an expected in for the Giants. The side note to the game is that this will be the first time Tim Taranto plays his old team in Yellow and Black colours.
WHERE THE GAME WILL BE WON:
The Giants’ game plan may match up well against the Tigers considering they love to control possession which takes away the Tigers’ love of it being a free-flowing game and a more chaotic style of football. The big area of the game which will decide the outcome will be the clearance and contested ball numbers. The Giants have won this area over the last three weeks against teams like Collingwood and St Kilda and it is an area where the Tigers are the worst in the competition at. Tom Green and Tim Taranto are both brilliant inside midfielders but the issue for the Tigers is that Green has more help than Taranto does. Coniglio is still averaging close to six clearances a game this season whilst Josh Kelly is averaging closer to five. On the flip side for the Tigers, the next best clearance midfielder is actually their ruck man in Toby Nankervis who is averaging four clearances a game. The likes of Shai Bolton and Dion Prestia must lift in order for the Tigers to get their season back on track. If they don’t, the forwards won’t be given a chance for any quality inside fifty entries and therefore they won’t be able to kick a winning score again. Whoever wins the midfield wins the game here.
TIP: I think this will be very close as they are two even teams. Giants by eight points.
ESSENDON VS NORTH MELBOURNE – SUNDAY 4.40PM – MARVEL STADIUM
The Bombers are shooting for three wins in a row after taking care of Richmond and West Coast over the last fortnight and now find themselves in the eight. Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti will miss for the Bombers with Dylan Shiel expected to replace him. The Kangaroos have been more competitive in the last couple of weeks and would be happy with the level of effort displayed against the Pies. Aidan Corr and Liam Shiels will come in to replace Charlie Lazzaro and Paul Curtis.
WHERE THE BOMBERS CAN WIN:
Essendon’s forward set up is working brilliantly considering they don’t have their best key forward in Peter Wright playing and I think this is where they can get the Kangaroos. There has been a really good spread of goalkickers for the Bombers this season (Langford 20, Stringer 16, Weideman 13, Perkins 13, and Menzie 12) and it is hard to see them containing all those players considering they are the second-worst defensive team in the league. The likes of Griffin Logue and Aidan Corr can be liabilities at times. They don’t defend overly well one-on-one and they provide no offensive run. If the Bombers can win their share of footy around the ground the likes of Stringer and Langford should get very favourable matchups and they should be able to kick a big enough score to win.
WHERE THE KANGAROOS CAN WIN:
The Kangaroos need to dominate the clearance and contested ball battle in order to win this game. The one weakness the Bombers have (especially with Darcy Parish out) is that they rank seventeenth in clearances and sixteenth in contested possession which should allow the likes of Simpkin, Sheezel, and Greenwood to be able to get some control on the ball and therefore get enough inside fifties which will give the North Melbourne forwards enough chances to score. Nick Larkey has kicked thirty goals and is sixth in the Coleman medal race and must be a concern for Essendon considering the likes of Zerk-Thatcher and Laverde aren’t completely proven as to be high-quality defenders as of yet. Jaidyn Stephenson and Cameron Zurhaar have also been good this season (seventeen and thirteen goals respectively) and if North Melbourne can get some repeat inside fifties, they can kick a winning score.
TIP: This will be closer than the odds indicate. In saying that, Essendon by fifteen points in a low-scoring game.
