We are officially in the second half of the 2023 AFL season and only one game separates third from seventh and one game also separates fifth from eleventh in one of the most even seasons we have seen in the history of the game. Thursday Night Footy is back with Sydney vs St Kilda and the two blockbuster games of the round are King’s Birthday Eve when Essendon play the old rival Carlton into Kings’ Birthday in a top-four clash between Melbourne and Collingwood. Let’s get stuck into it!
SYDNEY VS ST KILDA – THURSDAY 7.10PM – SCG
This is a big game for both clubs. Sydney have breathed some life back into their season after wins against North Melbourne and Carlton and they simply must win this game to remain a chance of playing finals. For the Saints, they have lost two out of their last three and were very disappointing against Hawthorn in round eleven. If they lose this game, they will be hanging on to eighth at the end of the round. Mitch Owens is expected to return for the Saints whilst Dane Rampe will be a welcome inclusion for the Swans. Luke Parker will miss via suspension in what is a big loss for Sydney.
WHERE BOTH TEAMS CAN WIN:
This game will be won and lost in the midfield and around clearance and stoppages. Both teams have been relatively terrible in that area of the game this year. The Saints rank seventeenth in clearances per game yet the Swans have the worst team to opponent clearance differential in the competition at -4.5. The Saints are thirteenth in this stat at -1.1. The loss of Luke Parker to this Sydney midfield is significant. He leads the team in clearances per game (5.5) and in contested possessions per game (11). Without him, the Swans have to find clearances from other players. Isaac Heeney was played throughout the midfield against the Blues and amassed seven clearances and I think he and Tom Papley might have to try and replace Parker’s influence combined.
For the Saints, it is Captain Jack Steele who must lift. He is averaging his lowest clearance numbers for the last four seasons in 2023 and has been very poor for the last few weeks. If the Saints are to gain ascendancy in this are of the game it needs to be the likes of Steele and Ross who lift to help the likes of Brad Crouch and Rowan Marshall get the ball going their way.
TIP: Toss a coin here really. I’ll tip the Saints by eight points in a low-scoring game.
WESTERN BULLDOGS VS PORT ADELAIDE – FRIDAY 7.50PM – MARVEL STADIUM
A mouth-watering clash awaits us on Friday Night football. The Dogs are coming off back-to-back losses after winning five in a row and the Power are looking to make it ten wins in a row and to have the chance to be on top of the table after round thirteen. Travis Boak and Charlie Dixon will return for the Power whilst Bulldog Ed Richards will miss after doing his Hamstring against the Cats on the weekend.
WHERE THE BULLDOGS CAN WIN:
The Dogs’ connection between the midfielders and forwards has been poor this season (rank fourteenth in points per game) but they do pose some issues regarding matchups for this Port Adelaide defence. Jamarra Ugle-Hagan has got to the right spots in recent weeks and the shots on goal show that with him having ten shots in the last month and I think he will have either Tom Jonas or Lachlan Jones play on him who will be giving away plenty of height. The same can be said for the other key forward in Rory Lobb whose likely opponent in Trent McKenzie will be giving away 16cm and 17kgs. If the Dogs can break even or get on top in the middle of the ground and get a quick ball inside fifty so that they can manipulate some 1v1 opportunities, they can kick a big score. Cody Weightman will be buzzing around the forward fifty and the Power have struggled against small forwards at times this season. There isn’t an obvious match-up for him and it wouldn’t surprise to see him hitting the scoreboard hard after a quiet month.
WHERE THE POWER CAN WIN:
The Power needs to apply pressure around the ball on the Dogs’ midfielders as we have seen this season that when that occurs, the Dogs’ midfield doesn’t use the ball well. Bailey Smith is the main culprit. He is finding plenty of the ball on the outside but his disposal efficiency over the last fortnight (57% from 23 disposals and 54% from 24 disposals) is killing the Dogs, especially via turnovers. The same argument can be applied to a few of these dogs Midfielders, Namely Adam Treloar and Tom Liberatore.
The other area the Power can target is their own forward fifty matchups. Jeremy Finlayson, Todd Marshall, and Charlie Dixon might be the best three-forward combination in the competition and outside of Liam Jones the Dogs’ key defenders in Ryan Gardner and Tim O’Brien can struggle against the best key forwards. There is an argument that Alex Keath should come back into the 22 to man Dixon/Finlayson. Ed Richards going out hurts their team defensive set up and I expect Bayley Williams will go back down there. The name of the game for the Power will be to get it in quick and lower the eyes to hit up Marshall and Finlayson on the lead.
TIP: This will be tight. I think the Power will win by two goals in a back-and-forth game of footy.
HAWTHORN VS BRISBANE – SATURDAY 1.45PM – MCG
The Lions come off the bye and a loss before that to the Crows and they have had a week to stew on that loss, whilst the Hawks found themselves 82 points down at halftime against the Power last weekend. This is simply a must-win game for the Lions to stay in the top four and the Hawks will just be hoping for a competitive four-quarter effort. James Sicily will return for the Hawks whilst Jackson Payne will return for the Lions.
WHERE HAWTHORN CAN WIN:
Brisbane score plenty but the opposite of that is the fact that they can be scored against at times. The Hawthorn forward line is working together nicely after the return of Mitch Lewis (sixteen goals from six games) and they are averaging 108 points scored over the last three weeks. The Brisbane defence is a good one but the likes of Lewis (sixteen goals), Bruest (23 goals), and Tyler Brockman (10 goals) can be a handful for any defence. The MCG should also help the Hawks’ cause as the Lions have a terrible record at the ground.
WHERE BRISBANE CAN WIN:
The Lions have the Hawks covered in nearly every area but I think their forward line will dominate the Hawks’ defence. They rank second in points per game and the Hawks are the third-worst defensive team in the league which spells trouble for them. The likes of James Blanck and Sam Frost are going to have their work cut out for them defending Joe Daniher (30 goals) and Eric Hipwood (16 goals) and the Lions’ small forwards are arguably the best in the competition. Blake Hardwick is a brilliant defender and the match-up between him and Charlie Cameron (32 goals) shapes as a brilliant one. The problem lies with everyone else. Aside from Hardwick, they don’t have any lockdown small defenders and the likes of Zac Bailey (14 goals), Cameron Rayner (11 goals), and Lincoln McCarthy (10 goals) pose as very dangerous matchups for the likes of Lachlan Bramble, Seamus Mitchell, and Bailey McDonald.
TIP: This one could get ugly. Brisbane by ten goals in a high-scoring affair.
ADELAIDE VS WEST COAST – SATURDAY 4.35PM – ADELAIDE OVAL
The Eagles showed some fight last week against the Magpies but ultimately fell short and are one of the worst teams we have seen in the AFL era with only one win after twelve games. Adelaide was beaten around the ball against a rampant Gold Coast outfit in Darwin and simply needs to improve that area of their game if they are to play finals in 2023. This is a must-win game for the Crows. Tom Doedee will miss for Adelaide whilst Luke Shuey will return for the Eagles.
WHERE ADELAIDE CAN WIN:
The Eagles will be without Tom Barrass again this week and that spells trouble against a tall and potent Adelaide forward line. The Eagles don’t have a recognised key defender and Adelaide boast a tall forward combination of Taylor Walker (28 goals), Darcy Fogarty (19 goals), and Riley Thilthorpe (10 goals). You would think the Adelaide midfield could at least halve and if not win the contest around the midfield and if they do that, I think the key forwards could have a big day out. If the Eagles do get too player-conscious of the tall forwards, the likes of Josh Rachele (15 goals), Luke Pedlar (15 goals), and Izak Rankine (21 goals) can also hurt you. I just think the Crows have too much firepower for an out-of-sorts and disjointed Eagles defence.
WHERE WEST COAST CAN WIN:
The Eagles have close to their best midfield now out on the park and are playing an Adelaide midfield that isn’t much better around clearance and contested ball than what they have been this year. The likes of Tim Kelly, Dom Sheed, Luke Shuey, and Elliot Yeo need to wind back the clock on Saturday afternoon if the Eagles are to have any chance of winning. If they can get on top in the midfield the Crows might feel the absence of Tom Doedee who is their best defender. Oscar Allen has been sensational this season (32 goals) and if they can find him some 1v1 opportunities he could very much put the Eagles in the game. Winning out of the middle is the only way the Eagles can win this game. Even if they halve it, I think the Crows will be too good for them.
TIP: I think the Crows will win this easily. Adelaide by six goals.
FREMANTLE VS RICHMOND – SATURDAY 7.25PM – OPTUS STADIUM
The Tigers season is on life support but a win against the odds in Western Australia against a finals contender would see them potentially only a game away from the eight and back in the hunt. Fremantle are looking to win five in a row and were terrific against Melbourne before their bye at the MCG. Nick Vlastuin and Maurice Rioli Jnr are a chance to return for the Tigers whilst Sean Darcy and Jaeger O’Meara will miss for the Dockers in what are big outs. Michael Walters is a test for this week whilst I expect Will Brodie to return to the team.
WHERE FREMANTLE CAN WIN:
The Dockers need to win the clearance and contested ball battle. The Tigers are a horrible clearance team and rank sixteenth in team-to-opponent differential in this area with a -4.2 number which is very low. Fremantle aren’t necessarily brilliant in this area but they are better than the Tigers and the likes of Caleb Serong and Andrew Brayshaw need to dominate in this area. Serong is one of the best inside midfielders in the competition and leads the Fremantle midfield whilst Brayshaw and Brodie also average over five clearances a game. The Tigers’ defence is still a very good one and the only way teams have got through them this year is by repeat inside 50s and by winning the clearance and contested ball battle obviously they can get and then keep the ball inside their fifty. Fremantle have averaged over 100 points per game over the last month so their forwards are working well together. Win the contested ball battle and it will take them a long way to winning the game.
WHERE RICHMOND CAN WIN:
The Tigers threw caution to the wind last week against the Giants and scored over 100 points for the fourth time this season. Fremantle can be scored against (fifth worst defensive team in the competition) and if the Tigers can rebound from defence like they did last week with the likes of Noah Balta, Nathan Broad, and Daniel Rioli intercepting forward forays I think they can kick a winning score and prove troublesome for the Dockers. The Tigers champion in Dustin Martin has started to lift over the last month averaging twenty disposals and two goals a game and Jack Reiwoldt is coming off a five-goal outing against GWS. Marlion Pickett was brilliant in the last quarter and may benefit from the confidence boost whilst the likes of Tim Taranto and Dion Prestia hit the scoreboard yet again. Play through handball and short kicking out of defence and playing with some freedom is the name of the game for the Tigers. Get it forward by any means against a susceptible defence and if they get it in there enough I think they can win.
TIP: I think this will be another close one. Fremantle by eight points in a low-scoring game.
NORTH MELBOURNE VS GWS GIANTS – SUNDAY 3.20PM – BLUNDSTONE ARENA
Two teams that are playing for not a whole lot other than development for their youngsters here. North Melbourne has been unlucky not to get at least get one win over the last fortnight after heartbreaking losses to Sydney and Essendon whilst the Giants also lost a heartbreaker to the Tigers last Sunday. Nick Haynes will return for the Giants whilst Brent Daniels will miss. North Melbourne will lose Hugh Greenwood and Jy Simpkin and will be hoping Luke Davies-Uniacke can come back into the side along with Ben Cunnington who is an expected in.
WHERE THE KANGAROOS CAN WIN:
North Melbourne will be stressing on the fitness of Luke Davies-Uniacke because if he plays, I think the Kangaroos can really dominate the clearance and contested ball battle which in Tasmania is a big area of the game to win, even more so than normal. The Giants rank fourteenth in team-to-opponent clearance differential whilst the Kangaroos rank fifth with a +2.5 number. The Giants are still missing Josh Kelly and the Kangaroos should get the ruck dominance with Goldstein being a bigger man than Briggs. Win the clearance and contested ball and get it into Nick Larkey who is in brilliant form. He has kicked thirteen goals over the last month and Jack Buckley had five kicked against him last week against an ageing Jack Reiwoldt. Zurhaar, Stephenson, and Coleman-Jones have all been terrific over the last fortnight and they can kick a winning score if they get some easy ball inside fifty.
WHERE THE GIANTS CAN WIN:
The Giants’ forward line is still very potent and if they can halve or win the clearance battle, I think they probably win the game. Jesse Hogan is on track for a near-best career season and has kicked twenty-two goals whilst Toby Greene is arguably the best small forward in the competition and has kicked twenty-nine goals. The North Melbourne defence is undersized and the Giants will also have Aaron Cadman (195cm) and Jake Riccardi (195cm) in that forward set-up. It is hard to see the Kangaroos’ defenders being able to match it with those three big guys up forward considering aside from Ben McKay they don’t have a key defender over 194cm. I think the Greene Vs McDonald/Ziebell match-up is also a very dangerous one.
TIP: I think the Giants will win a close one. GWS by fourteen points.
CARLTON VS ESSENDON – SUNDAY 7.15PM – MCG
The first of the two blockbusters to end the round. Carlton’s season is teetering on the edge of no return and the Bombers have won three in a row and sit inside the top six. Essendon need to win to stay in the eight, and the Blues need to win to keep their season alive. Old-fashioned rivals with their season on the line – It doesn’t get any better. George Hewett will return for the Blues whilst Jack Silvagni misses and Peter Wright is expected to return for the Bombers in his first game for the season.
WHERE CARLTON CAN WIN:
Carlton has a better midfield than the Bombers and they need to get on top in this area. Patrick Cripps needs to lead the way for the Blues. His last month has been horrible by his standards and he is playing a relatively small-statured midfield who are the third-worst clearance team in the league. Cripps, Kennedy, and Hewett need to use their size and bully the Essendon midfield to get it going their way and into the hands of players like Sam Walsh, Adam Cerra, and Blake Acres so that they can use the ball well and make the right decisions going inside fifty.
If they can get on top in the midfield, Harry McKay and Charlie Curnow loom as being very dangerous. The current Coleman Medal leader in Curnow will most likely play on Jayden Laverde which shapes as a good matchup for the Blues and McKay will get Zerk-Thatcher who is giving away 9cm and 15kgs. He already struggles against the hulk key forwards and I think the McKay match-up is the one the Blues will target. Win the contest, get it in quick, and the key forwards will do the job.
WHERE ESSENDON CAN WIN:
I get the feeling that Essendon might be able to score at will in chains from their own defensive fifty. They rank second in rebound 50s per game and Carlton are horrible at applying pressure inside their own forward fifty and keeping it in there. The likes of Mason Redman, Andrew McGrath, Jordan Ridley, and Massimo D’Ambrosio should be able to beat the Blues’ small forwards when the ball hits the ground and then generate inside fifties based on that.
Once the Bombers do get it in there, they have such an even spread and they make space for each other better than most teams in the league. Jacob Weitering will likely get the job on the returning Peter Wright with Lewis Young playing on Sam Weideman. It is after those two that becomes the issue. Kyle Langford has been fantastic this season (24 goals) and likely has Mitch McGovern for an opponent who has been in horrid form, whilst Jake Stringer (17 goals), Archie Perkins (15 goals), and Jye Menzie (13 goals) should prove a handful for the likes of Kemp, Boyd, Cincotta, and Saad to handle. If the Bombers win, it will be the medium and small-sized forwards who do the damage.
TIP: I think the Bombers will win another close one. Essendon by three goals.
MELBOURNE VS COLLINGWOOD – MONDAY 3.20PM – MCG
It doesn’t get much bigger than this. A public holiday with football as the only outlet with two big Melbourne clubs going at it. Collingwood are in rare air at the moment and have lost just the one game this season whilst the Demons, although with scratchy form, find themselves inside the top four. Clayton Oliver will return for the Demons in what is a big in whilst the Pies will miss Jordan DeGoey in what is a big out. Patrick Lipinski and Daniel McStay may return for the Magpies.
WHERE MELBOURNE CAN WIN:
Dominate the midfield. The Demons got their clearance and contested ball game going last week against Carlton due to Christian Petracca and Jack Viney combining for fourteen clearances and twenty-eight contested possessions. Clayton Oliver comes back into the side who is arguably their best inside midfielder (averaging close to seven clearances a game) and the Pies lose their version of Oliver in Jordan DeGoey. He is averaging six clearances a game and the likes of Taylor Adams and Scott Pendlebury are going to have to really stand up in the contest in order for the Pies to contest well around the ball.
The other area the Demons can gain ascendancy is from their defence. They were good against the Blues last week when keeping them to 44 points and the Pies don’t have a star key forward. The likes of Steven May, Jake Lever, and Adam Tomlinson need to intercept the Pies attacking forays in order to both rebound offensively and contain the Pies’ pressure.
WHERE THE PIES CAN WIN:
This has a Darcy Moore masterclass written all over it. For all the tools the Demons possess, a good key forward is not one of them. Jacob Van Rooyen and Joel Smith just don’t really strike fear into anyone. The other issue with the Demons over the last few weeks is composure. The Demons have just bombed away when entering their fifty and due to this they are only averaging 78 points per game over the last month – down from the average of 108 points per game over the first month of the season. If they bomb away due to pressure or a lack of composure in this game, the likes of Darcy Moore (first in total intercepts in the competition), Nathan Murphy, Billy Frampton, and Brayden Maynard will eat their entries up for breakfast and it will then set up chains for the Pies offensively. The aim for the Pies will be to bring their customary pressure which forces rushed kicks inside fifty which will then constrict the Demons’ ability to score.
The other area the Pies can get the Demons in is with their small forwards. Outside of Trent Rivers, the Demons don’t have many small defenders who can (or want) to play a lockdown role and the Pies’ combination of small forwards and goal-kicking midfielders in Bobby Hill (16 goals), Jack Ginnivan (8 goals), and Nick Daicos (10 goals) could cause havoc in what I predict will be a low scoring game.
TIP: Hard one to call. Hard to tip against Collingwood. Magpies by eight points