Well, last week didn’t prove as successful as I thought it would, however, we did strike a $10 winner which was good to see. Would I have liked more of my horses to finish in first place instead of second? Of course! But we move on. I am headed off to Europe for the month of July so this is like my swansong before I return and attack Spring with a vengeance. I am very confident that we will be walking out of my final day with at least 3 wins, if not half the card, that’s right, I am calling my shot and am prepared to cop it on the chin if I look very silly!
Track Report: Rosehill is currently rated a Soft 5 but we expect sunshine all day today and tomorrow so if it isn’t Good 4 but the jump of the first, it should be by the end of the day. The rail is out 4 metres for the entire circuit which usually means those who draw the inside and like to lead are highly advantaged at Rosehill thanks to the tight turn into the straight. Monitor any potential bias on the day.
Race 1 – 1300M Kia Ora Farnan (Bm72)
Plundering has my money here. The form of his last few runs is quite strong on paper with narrow losses to Garrison and Yoshino. The Yoshino form especially reads well as that is a horse I follow keenly and has made us quite a bit of money. He will carry a lot of weight, but sometimes class is all you need and that is what this horse has.
Amor Victorious goes in second here. Bjorn Baker is absolutely flying right now so it would shock nobody if he grabs another win here. He will inject a lot of pace into the race and with the rail out he could most certainly get a strong lead on and kick all the way down the straight and stay in front the entire time.
Baroque Road has to go in simply because Zac Lloyd goes on first time. Lloyd is in fine form as always and he gets the weight right down with his claim. Should be competitive late.
Charlton Lane is the big watch here. Maher and Eustace import that will get better with extra distance but his jump outs have been sharp. Watch the parade and market for best indication.
Selections: 1-7-8-6
Suggested Bet: Plundering Win
Race 2 – 1400M The Agency Real Estate (Bm78)
Semena just wins this surely. The form behind Rediener is fantastic as that horse was able to beat Yellow Brick a few weeks back. She should jump on the bunny and prove very hard to run down. Drawn the widest but with zero speed drawn under her and the rail I can’t see much pressure being put on her.
Gee Mascaret was plain first up, wasn’t she? But, she is bred to go further and has much better form over the likes of the mile, so while she might still need this run, I think she’ll be much more competitive here.
Sweet Mercy goes up in class here and carries more weight, but I think the move to a Fillies and Mares race will have her excellently placed. She will settle towards the back of the pack but I think she has the turn of foot to potentially find her way into the money.
Fearnought rounds out selections.
Selections: 1-3-7-8
Suggested Bet: Semena Win
Race 3 – 1500M Racing For Good On 29/7 (Bm72)
Resonator to grab the front and go all the way with it here. Lloyd’s claim gets the weight off the back ensuring that he doesn’t get weighted out of the contest. Won smartly last start here a month back and then proceeded to win a trial. He gets the job done I feel.
Oakfield Waratah will be the one to stalk the favourite wherever he goes and could potentially run over him in the final stages if he gets the right trail. Up in distance from the midway but stays t the same track and trip which could see him run well again.
Gracilistyla is a bit of a money muncher, but he continues to drop in depth until he can find a winnable race and potentially he finds that here.
Bat Out Of Hell rounds out selections.
Selections: 1-6-2-10
Suggested Bet: Resonator Win
Race 4 – 1400M Midway (Bm72)
Don’t worry I am finally getting away from the favourites here.
Epicus is the one I want to be with despite the wide barrier. I think with a clean jump he can push forward and grab the tail of the leaders and try and run over the top of them in the straight. I like the week back up, especially after such a smart win and I think he can go on with it.
Miss Faberge needs a few scratchings to get a start but if she does she can play a role here. She’ll carry a low weight and with the form behind Oakfield Warratah, who is a live chance in Race 3 as discussed she should put in a strong effort here.
Smart Legend has been rising through the grades until he finally gets a crack at Saturday grade here. McEvoy goes on board and should give him every chance near the front of the pack.
Much of the same can be said about Gendarmerie. Slowly rising through the grades and being competitive at the provincial level and I think will put in a good effort here.
Selections: 14-18-13-16
Suggested Bet: Epicus Each Way
Race 5 – 1100M Tab Highway Hcp (C3)
One horse and one horse only that I am interested here. That horse goes by the name of Mogo Magic. Gave the entire field wind burn last time he ran in a Highway during the Spring, he even was Nicko’s best bet that day and I wouldn’t be shocked if he is again. There have been many wealthy owners try to buy him because they think he has a massive future, I agree, he gets this done with ease.
Salire, Master Joe and Emperor the only others that I could entertain but I am very confident the favourite gets the job done.
Selections: 3-8-10-2
Suggested Bet: Mogo Magic Win
Race 6 – 1100M Rosehill Bowling Club (Bm72)
A lot of pace to be injected early in this one with most liking to be at the front. One of those horses will be Amnesty. Neasham rider that wasn’t doing very much down in Victoria but since he has moved to Annabel’s camp he has been racing out of his skin at the provincial level. A win here would make it 4 on the trot and it wouldn’t shock me at odds. He’ll be in the right spot to have success.
Hi Dubai is the clear danger as favourite. He will also push up on the pace and likely lead the field if not sit in the 1-1 position with Amnesty and it wouldn’t surprise me if they are neck and neck down the straight. He’ll carry 4 fewer kgs here which could prove vital in the late stages.
With all of the pace up front, if they go too hard, this race could fall in the lap of the likes of Tintookie and Waverider Buoy who will sit just off them and try and round them up in the straight. If the tempo is there, they can 100% get the win.
Selections: 1-8-5-4
Suggested Bet: Amnesty Each Way
Race 7 – 2400M Toyota Forklifts (Bm78)
Blinkers on for me, I am only interested in a single horse here and that is Fawkner Park. I think this UK import is in for a very bright future down under. He has been faultless to date in Australia and after the last start where he came from absolutely nowhere once the split came in the traffic to win shows me he is tough, smart and can quicken when asked for it. I think he has Group races on his horizon come springtime, if I am right, be has to be winning this one.
Miracle Spin is so far the only horse that has managed to get close to the favourite and that was last start where he was blessed with a strong tempo to run off late. Does he get the same tempo here? I would think yes with the likes of So United in the race. Watch for him late.
So United and Naval College go in as the exotic fillers as their racing pattern mean they will be in it for a long way. If the chasers even switch off for a second, these 2 can go 1st and 2nd.
Selections: 2-5-6-3
Suggested Bet: Fawkner Park (BEST BET)
Race 8 – 1500M Furphy (Bm88)
Straight bat option here – Kibou. Should have won last start but was just edged out by the much fitter Iowna Merc who is flying at the moment so that is A-Grade form for a race like this. Fitter for that effort and the jump up in distance helps. Having a run at this distance will show if he can potentially be a Golden Eagle chance come the Spring!
Pascero and Attractable are two horses that have gotten on my nerves lately. They are blackbookers of mine and I have failed to back them both when they got up at huge odds so I am not missing out on my chance to include them in the selections this time around.
Don’t be surprised if Mahagoni has a sharp improve here and finds his way into the money. A MUST include in your first fours in my opinion with that pricetag.
Selections: 5-4-3-10
Suggested Bet: Kibou Win
Race 9 – 1800M Tab (Bm78)
I smell an import in Special Envoy for the Waterhouse and Bott camp. He was a $2 Million Yearling back in Europe and Waterhouse has forked out 500K to bring him to Australia and she is no dummy, I think she’ll have him fit, firing and ready to go and can show the Aussies how it’s done here. Son of Frankel as well which is something I love so all signs point to Yes for me.
Touristic is another son of Frankel in this race and I think he can measure up. He was far from disgraced in that run behind Grebeni who is tackling a stakes race in QLD this weekend, while Touristic goes around in BM78 company, so you’d think that form can definitely prove dividends.
Brayden Star has to carry a chunk of weight but he has been flying without winning too many race down in Victoria and tries to come up to Sydney for an easy kill here. BM90 all the way done to BM78 here shows that the camp is very keen on getting a victory despite the strong handicap. Seems to get better with every jump in distance so the 1800 should suit.
Sir Rockford rounds out selections with his fine form, chasing a hattrick of wins here.
Selections: 6-10-1-9
Suggested Bet: Special Envoy Each Way
Race 10 – 1300M Bowermans (Bm78)
Would like to finish my run of form of late off with a bang here before I fly off on vacation and I think Windshadow can provide that win for me. Has been racing at the provincial level and makes the quick jump to Saturday grade here but I think he can hang with them. Led throughout for an arrogant win last start and he can do the same here if he finds the front.
Cosmic Minerva seemed a good thing last start but it was a horror show. Poor jump saw her settle further back than expected and then the soft tempo meant she didn’t have much to slingshot her in the straight meaning she couldn’t really dig her heels in as much as she would desire. More luck here can see her in the finish.
Either Oar will put himself up in the pace and if he isn’t in front, he will most likely take a sit and stalk whoever does end up leading. I really like the miss Hellfire form, I think he can definitely get the job done here.
Lolly Yeats is the Irish import that ran well in its first prep for Neasham, but we haven’t seen him in over a year. He will improve over a further distance and he might just find them too sharp for him off such a long break but I wouldn’t count him out.
Selections: 8-6-5-9
Suggested Bet: Windshadow Each Way
Top Selections For The Card
Race 1: Plundering
Race 2: Semena
Race 3: Resonator
Race 4: Epicus
Race 5: Mogo Magic
Race 6: Amnesty
Race 7: Fawkner Park (BEST BET)
Race 8: Kibou
Race 9: Special Envoy
Race 10: Windshadow
Quaddie
Race 7: 2,5
Race 8: 5
Race 9: 1,6,8,9,10,16
Race 10: 2,5,6,8,9
$50 gets you 83%
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