A fine return to form last weekend with a couple of winners at decent odds as well, quite happy with Yoshino’s performance which sent us into the profit for the day. I am hoping to produce similar results today, but it is a wide-open card with plenty of chances so make sure to stake accordingly throughout the day, as it could be quite a long one.
Track Report: We should be racing on a Good 4 all day long with zero rain expected across the day and in the lead-up to it. The rail goes out six metres from the 1500m-Winning Post; Out five metres for the remainder. So, with that, be mindful that the horses drawn on the inside, especially those who like to run on pace could find themselves with quite the advantage.
Race 1 – 1300M 2YO Tab Hcp
Gonna side with Congregation. Was super impressed with its debut win last start at midweek grade over the 1250m mark. Showed to have a real kick to guts out a tough win late when he ran over the top of them. Slightly up in distance and with the extra fitness he will be hard to beat.
Stand Aside parked himself just behind the pace last start and get a little stuck when trying to swing around them and kick on. Fought out the finish, but with the bigger track and more space, I feel like he can have a better chance to make a strong lunge at the line.
Tutta La Vita is the favourite of the field and should be respected. Drawn to get shuffled back in the field, but he seems a get-back type anyways. Weaved through them all to miss very narrowly behind a smart type. Dyl Gibbons’ claim gets some weight off the back which will help come the finish.
Ekeler is the roughie of the race I could entertain, as you must always respect Maher and Eustace.
Selections: 1-7-8-6
Suggested Bet: Congregation Win
Race 2 – 1100M Tab Highway Hcp (C3)
I hate going favourites in a highway but Maximum Vortex has to go on top with me. I am predicting a slight bias to the on-pace types and he should be parking himself in the lead with a clean jump. His two runs to date have also been strong wins that have rated really well. I think he can make it 3 on the trot to kick the career off with a hat trick.
Proverbial is a decent horse on its day. Always competitive at this distance and in this grade. Gibbons should park her somewhere amongst the pack and be one of the strongest late.
Salire is another one that should be eye-catching late in the race. Always the bridesmaid never the bride this horse except for the odd win here and there, it is why he is still stuck in Class 3 grade. Needs to not find himself in traffic as he goes to swing wide otherwise, he won’t be able to display that strong turn of foot.
Sussu has plenty of appeal as he should park behind the pace and try and run over the top of them late. He has won 2 straight and has had some great trials.
Selections: 10-5-3-11
Suggested Bet: Maximum Vortex Win
Race 3 – 1400M Midway (Bm72)
Sweet Mercy for me. I don’t like the barrier so Alysha Collett will need to be quite proactive to make sure she doesn’t get caught too wide. But she is rock hard fit, coming off a win in this grade last start at this track and at this distance. Will be the strongest late.
Awesome Lad has never won at this distance, but he has placed 7/9 times and with the potential leader bias, he could break through and get the monkey off of the back here. Could want a little further, but he does his best work second up and in the dry.
Victory Lane drops back to the midway grade here and after last start with a strong run behind Devil’s Throat I can’t see him not being competitive. Flew home and clocked the fastest sectionals of the race and some of the fastest of the meeting. Should sit behind the speed and stalk the leaders and try and run over the top in the final stages. Schiller will give it every chance.
Kyeema rounds out selections as a very decent chance and should be ready to peak 3rd up.
Selections: 9-2-7-1
Suggested Bet: Sweet Mercy Each Way
Race 4 – 1400M Petaluma (Bm72)
Space Tracker has to carry some weight, but Stanley’s claim will help here. This was his pet distance in Europe when he was dealing with horses much better than this. He does his best work first up (Undefeated) and his trials have been very sharp, especially the last one. Reads like a winner and hopefully runs like one.
Semena is the one that arguably is the one to beat, but has a horror barrier. Been tearing through the midweek grades with plenty of strong runs. Never missed the quinella at this distance and never missed the trifecta in the dry. Gibbons will give him every chance to be at the front of the pack, which could be the place to be.
Hell Hath No Fury and Cloudland are both consistent enough types that should put in a decent chase late.
Selections: 1-5-10-7
Suggested Bet: Space Tracker Win
Race 5 – 1800M Furphy (Bm72)
It is a no secret that I love a son of Frankel and Tradition fits that bill. Smart enough type for Saturday grade that probably should have more than 2 wins under the belt by now but he gets the chance to win a 3rd here with a great set up. Draws to do no work from the 3rd barrier and should settle wherever is wanted. Both wins have come in the dry, conditions in which he hasn’t seen for a while, last time he raced on good ground was a Group 3 race where he went down to Kovalica, which reads as A grade form for this.
Grebeni has been rising through the grades ever so slightly and comes here as the firm favourite. Has never run this far before but I can’t see it being an issue as he is always strong through the line over the mile, where both of his wins have come from. First time having a crack at the Saturday metro level as well, so I want to watch him go around first before having money on.
Ring Ahoy is a horse that took a millennium to break his maiden and finally did it earlier this prep allowing him to step up to the benchmark quality where he probably should have been for a while. He should settle towards the back and have something to say late.
Celestial Spirit will have to do some work from that wide barrier to get to the front, but as long as she is up front somewhere with minimal distraction she can play a part in this one. Very similar to Grebeni in the sense that she has been grinding away in the midweek and finally gets a chance to show if she has what it takes to hang at Saturday level here.
Selections: 2-1-4-3
Suggested Bet: Tradition Each Way
Race 6 – 2400M Bowermans Winter Cup
Al Aabir is dying for Chris Waller and should be winning this one. Hasn’t missed the trifecta once this prep and should have arguably won with ease last start. He just got stuck in traffic and when he got clear late he thundered home for a placing. Jockey upgrade will help, as well as the smaller field and weaker field as well mind you. He will be hard to beat.
Herman Hesse will certainly be the one to watch late as I expect him to take a cushy run behind the speed and kick late over the top of them. He was no match for the likes of Lunar Flare and White Marlin last start, however, the tart before that he was matching it with the likes of Right You Are which is great form for a weak stakes race like this.
Spirit Ridge is a consistent customer when it comes to races such as this. This Neasham-trained gelding has been around the block plenty of times and he always puts an honest performance in where he is never too far away from the finish, I would expect the same from him here.
The same exact thing can be said for Desert Icon who rounds out selections.
Selections: 9-5-2-1
Suggested Bet: Al Aabir Win
Race 7 – 1200M The Agency Real Estate (Bm78)
Devil’s Throat looks to be in for a strong prep after returning excellently last start and gutsing out a tough victory against a respectable Kiwi import in Wewillrock. Reece Jones sticks and gets a draw that will allow him to run almost an identical run that will see him sit amongst the pack and burst out late.
Big fan of the way Kipsbay goes about his business and he goes in as a narrow second selection. He has been racing up in QLD lately and perhaps a little above his pay grade as well, but back to a more familiar track and easier grade should put him in good stead. He will be towards the front and should sit behind a moderate tempo and lunge late at the line.
Contemporary is on the week back up here after coming 3rd behind a nice one in Yoshino last week. Will have to do it the hard way from that wide barrier, but with cover I think he can just truck behind the speed and put in a strong run late. Arguments could be made that with cleaner air he could have won last week, he gets his chance to prove that here.
Gracilistyla goes in to round out selections. On paper, her stats read terribly for this, but she has from behind Think About It, who is a star in the making so that could take her a long way.
Selections: 3-2-11-9
Suggested Bet: Devil’s Throat Win
Race 8 – 1800M Racing And Sports (Bm94)
Wicklow needs to carry a chunk of weight but sometimes class is all you need and this horse has it. Won the Wagga Cup 2 starts back before coming a narrow 3rd to Bois D’Argent a couple weeks ago in the Lord Mayor’s Cup. Loves this track and loves this distance and if he manages to not find himself wide without cover for most of the trip he should be the strongest late.
Tony Be is your favourite and he will be carrying 7kg less than Wicklow which will put him in good stead if it becomes a neck and neck battle in the late stages. Draws to do no work and should find himself behind a genuine tempo that he can use to slingshot him into the fold late.
Alcyone is the uncatchable horse. He hasn’t won in 45 weeks but yet he always reads well and the market supports his chances. I won’t be on as I have done my money on him one too many times, but he certainly is a respectable bet, as like I said, he always reads very well. Likes the track and trip and he does his best work when peaking 4th up.
Bold Mac rounds out selections as he is a consistent type and win would not shock.
Selections: 2-18-7-10
Suggested Bet: Wicklow Each Way
Race 9 – 1500M Schweppes (Bm78)
Lekvarte goes on top for me for a little bit of value. She has contested better races than this in the past, she has just returned a little flat this prep. Think a bounce back can come here as she dros a few kg’s in weight and has drawn the rails. Should sit just off of them and if she gets a clear lane to the line she will do her best work late.
African Daisy has the consistency to be in the finish here. Has the draw to be getting the lead here with a clean jump and with the bottom weight she could prove hard to run down if they let her get away from them. Ran fairly first up and should strip fitter from it.
Royal Ribbons is the big watch in my opinion. Wasn’t really anything to brag about in Europe, but it could be anything in Australia as we have seen time and time again. The trials have been decent enough to warrant a close eye on the market and parade of this horse.
I’ve Been Tryin’ rounds out selections as favourite.
Selections: 13-16-1-5
Suggested Bet: Lekvarte Each Way
Race 10 – 1200M Kia Ora Farnan (Bm78)
Miss Hellfire was absolutely crunched in betting last start and saluted making for some very happy punters who had loaded her. She can go on with it I feel as she gets almost an identical set up in a field that really isn’t that much tougher.
Authentic Jewel goes next here as it brings a different formline than the rest. Ran respectably first up at Scone a few weeks back and loomed to win but didn’t really go on with it. If she brings her best this time in she can get the job done.
Winning Verse and California Surreal are both sneaky chances but I can’t see them turning the tables on Miss Hellfire.
Selections: 9-2-5-4
Suggested Bet: Miss Hellfire Win (BEST BET)
Top Selections For The Card
Race 1: Congregation
Race 2: Maximum Vortex
Race 3: Sweet Mercy
Race 4: Space Tracker
Race 5: Tradition
Race 6: Al Aabir
Race 7: Devil’s Throat
Race 8: Wicklow
Race 9: Lekvarte
Race 10: Miss Hellfire (Best Bet)
Quaddie
Race 7: 2,3,7,9,11
Race 8: 2,18
Race 9: 1,3,5,13,15,16
Race 10: 2,9
$50 gets you 41%