Hey, Legends! I said I was confident I would find a few winners last week and I managed to salute a few and get extremely close on a couple of others as well. Nowhere near as much confidence this week as the racing quality dips a bit so stake accordingly.
Track: Not much to report here. Very sunny, and very dry Good 4, rail goes in the true position and the racing should be as fair as it gets.
Race 1 – 1400M The Agency Real Estate Hcp
Tutta La Vita has to be the bet here. He is short, but the form behind Congregation who proceeded to run decently in a Group 1 JJ Atkins last weekend has to read 10 times better than anything his rival had. He also arguably should have won with a better steer, so surely he just has to get the job done here.
Flying Trapeze was set to be one of the big dogs in the 2YO game but he started his career like a wet fart only just breaking his maiden recently. He should run well and finish in the money, but his track record says he isn’t a winner. However, this isn’t a super deep field.
Canadian Ruler was a $1.60 favourite when winning on debut easily in a midweek maiden at Bathurst. Obviously, this field is a lot harder, but Bjorn is flying at the moment, coming off 5 wins on the card last weekend so there would be no surprises if he continues his run of form.
Mogwai is another horse who has that Congregation form that could do the favourite wonders, so I am happy to include him in the selections.
Selections: 3-1-4-5
Suggested Bet: Tutta La Vita Win (BEST BET)
Race 2 – 1500M Midway (Bm72)
I’ll give Sweet Mercy another go here as she is a pretty consistent type that you know won’t be too far away. Last start she was a bit unlucky when trapped three wide no cover and hence used up way too much energy in transit. A softer draw and Gibbons on board are a massive bonus.
Dr Evil is an interesting one. Was flying in the summer and last winter as well, but he has had a very plain prep so far. So plain in fact he has dropped all the way back down to the Midways, a grade I thought he had well and truly graduated from. He carries a stack of weight, but I feel he has the strength to carry it.
Deep Opinions is a massive danger here. Last start she missed the start and then absolutely swamped them, winning by 3 lengths. This is harder and a further distance as well, but if that turn of foot remains the same, watch out for her late.
Miss Faberge has been running around for a while and should be looking for a spell soon, but she has held her form well and can finish off the prep with a win.
Selections: 13-1-19-22
Suggested Bet: Sweet Mercy Each Way
Race 3 – 1200m Tab Highway Hcp (C3)
Hate going a favourite in the Highway but the combination of Aaron Bullock and Paul Messara often means money and Unravel fits that profile. Should jump cleanly, stalk the leader and run past him in the straight. Confident he can get the choccies and make it 4 wins from 5 starts.
Think Sussu could bounce back here. Ran just Ok first up when she found himself trapped on the fence and failed to let down in the straight. Does her best work on the rock-hard deck which she will get, runs well 2nd up and she should find herself in a better lane from that 5th barrier.
Vilified is one at odds I can see filling the money here and hence I will include in all of my exotics. He has dropped off in form a bit, but his turn of foot is better than most Highway horses I feel, so if he is within striking distance going around the bend watch for him late.
Zaru consistently runs decently in Highways, have to include him in the selections.
Selections: 2-9-10-4
Suggested Bet: Unravel Win
Race 4 – 1800M Racing For Good On 29/7 (Bm72)
Grebeni has to be the bet here I feel. Rising through the grades well and continues to get the job done. He was at this track, trip and grade only last start and put them away with ease so I feel he certainly has to be the one to beat and I cannot see anyone turning the tables on him.
Touristic, Asgoodassobergets and Manbehindthemoney are all knockout hopes in my opinion. The main reason is they don’t have to turn the tables on the favourite since they bring completely different form lines. Touristic is the main danger in my mind.
Selections: 5-4-1-2
Suggested Bet: Grebeni Win
Race 5 – 2000M Tab (Bm78)
Fawkner Park is a horse I think will be really hard to beat and might even rate as my next best of the card. He comes from Europe and their stayers are of course much better than ours and he has proven that in his two starts to date including a 3 length win last start. Rock hard fit, ready to peak, if he brings his best he should be coming out on top.
Miracle Spin is in my mind the only horse that can beat the favourite here as he is flying. He beat Wrathful a couple of starts ago, a horse I have quite a bit of time for. Last start he ran home very strongly behind Naval College who also finds himself in this race.
Naval College can potentially have something to say here. Stanley sticks from the win last start and he has the racing pattern to be winning on a dry Rosehill deck. Tony Be rounds out selections.
Selections: 7-5-1-2
Suggested Bet: Fawkner Park Win
Race 6 – 1100M Bisley Workwear (Bm72)
I tentatively go Smashing Eagle here. This is a very open race and I think he is very well suited to this sort of race. Undefeated at the distance and last time he ran fresh he smashed them. If he brings his best I think he can get his career at the new trainers off with a bang.
Brudnell was blown away by Benedetta last start down the Flemington straight which is decent form. He goes back around a bend which I think will suit him better. Trials have looked pretty slick, he can certainly return a winner.
I have a lot of time for Fire And Ice and I think a win certainly wouldn’t shock, Is coming off a nice win at Wyong at this distance. He will settle towards the rear but his best work usually comes late anyways, he just needs to ensure he doesn’t give away too big of a start.
Waverider Buoy rounds out selections.
Selections: 6-1-7-10
Suggested Bet: Smashing Eagle Each Way
Race 7 – 2000M Toyota F’lifts W J Mckell Cup
Bois D’Argent broke his Aussie maiden when winning the Lord Mayor’s Cup last start. He was very gutsy and I think he can go on with it here. He will sit off the pace and launch late and if he repeats his efforts he just wins in my opinion.
However, I will admit that Zoumon is a massive danger as he gets the soft lead from that wide draw and no pace drawn under him. Tim Clark back in Sydney and back on board he can take him right to the front and if he gets away from them enough it could be over before they even go around the bend.
Benaud is a money muncher and a half but boy does he just continue to drop in class til he finds a win. Admirable from O’Shea instead of just retiring him. But this is one of his easier tasks to date, if he brings the Spring form he can find his way into the money.
Lord Ardmore is always there or thereabouts, he can be a good addition to exotics.
Selections: 2-12-4-5
Suggested Bet: Bois D’Argent Win
Race 8 – 1300M Fujitsu Airstage (Bm78)
I love an import, everyone knows this, so Mascaret is right up my alley. Lightly raced after winning a race over in France, but to be fair that was over the mile trip. But a recent jumpout showed me she’s got the motor for some shorter trips. However, she will get better the further she goes, but on a class basis, she might just get this field.
Mirra View usually likes a bit of juice in the track but she certainly caught my eye last start where she motored to the front at the 200 and stayed there all the way down the straight. She will get a similar run I would feel with Jones sticking. Stalk the leader and try and run past him in the final stages.
Vienna Princess was that horse that finished 2nd to Mirra View last start but with the rise in distance potentially she can turn the tables by really digging in, stretching the legs and having a good lunge at the line as Mirra View begins to tire.
Ringarosa rounds out selections.
Selections: 9-3-4-6
Suggested Bet: Mascaret Each Way
Race 9 – 1500M Furphy (Bm78)
I think Space Tracker was so unlucky not to win last start on debut in Australia he just got out ran to the line and missed by a very narrow margin. Stanley sticks and he will carry even less weight here. He’ll jump clean, motor to the front and be hard to get past.
African Daisy comes out of the same race and should put in another decent effort. He usually does his best work at this track and trip so I can certainly see him fighting out yet another close finish.
Robusto of course won the race I have mentioned twice now and interestingly my selections have gone 3rd, 2nd and st from this race. The reason I feel he doesn’t get the choccies here is the jump in weight. He goes up 2.5kgs while Space Tracker drops a couple of kg’s so I think the eight swing is what pays dividends here.
Attractable can find his way into the money with the drop in grade.
Selections: 4-14-1-2
Suggested Bet: Space Tracker Win
Race 10 -1300M Ranvet (Bm78)
I want to side with Cosmic Minerva here. The trials have been too impressive not to back him and considering how in form Bjorn Baker is I think he can finish off the day with another big win. He will really get firing late on in the race and run over the top of them I think.
Token Capitalist is as consistent as they come and the form behind Rediener could take him a really long way here, after all that horse just beat Yellow Brick last weekend! Should jump, go straight to the front and since he will carry absolutely zero weight he can certainly go all the way.
Plundering was just outrun by Yohsino last start and that is a horse I have quite a bit of time for so I will certainly respect the form here. Has had quite a consistent start to the prep as well which has me thinking he can be a big danger to the favourite here.
Gracilistyla rounds out selections.
Selections: 12-13-9-6
Suggested Bet: Cosmic Minerva Win
Top Selections For The Card
Race 1: Tutta La Vita (BEST BET)
Race 2: Sweet Mercy
Race 3: Unravel
Race 4: Grebeni
Race 5: Fawkner Park
Race 6: Smashing Eagle
Race 7: Bois D’Argnent
Race 8: Mascaret
Race 9: Space Tracker
Race 10: Cosmic Minerva
Quaddie
Race 7: 2,4,5,9,12
Race 8: 3,4,6,9
Race 9: 1,2,4,14
Race 10: 6,9,12,13
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