After a hiatus of nearly two months, we are back to previewing the AFL action as we head into the last few rounds of the season and then into September. Round twenty-one approaches us and there are some tantalising contests that will shape September action. The round kicks off with the Bulldogs and Tigers at Marvel Stadium on Friday Night who are both fighting for the final two spots in the top eight and there are two Saturday Night blockbusters which involve Port Adelaide and Geelong and the battle of the Bridge in Sydney. We then finish the round with fifth-placed St Kilda versing seventh-placed Carlton. Let’s get into it!
WESTERN BULLDOGS VS RICHMOND – FRIDAY 7.50PM – MARVEL STADIUM
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The Eighth placed Bulldogs face off against the eleventh-placed Richmond with only half a game separating them in terms of ladder position. The Bulldogs have lost three of their last four games whilst the Tigers have won three of their last four. Liam Jones and Ed Richards are likely to return against the Tigers to offset the losses of Alex Keath and Josh Bruce. Jayden Short and Captain Toby Nankervis will return for the Tigers with whoever going out likely to be unlucky.
WHERE THE BULLDOGS CAN WIN:
The Bulldogs have one of the best midfields in football and it is the main area in which they can dominate against the Tigers. The Dogs are ranked second in the team to opponent clearances per game differential whilst the Tigers rank sixteenth in this area with only Sydney and West Coast being worse. The last time these two teams played in round four Marcus Bontempelli, Adam Treloar, and Tom Liberatore combined for twenty-eight clearances and they were clearly the difference in the game. It is hard to see that changing on Friday Night considering the only Tiger to improve since then in the midfield has been Tim Taranto. If the Bulldogs can gain dominance out of the stoppages and run it out with some ease, the likes of Aaron Naughton, Jamarra Ugle-Hagan, and Cody Weightman should be very hard to stop considering the form of Tigers Captain Dylan Grimes has been headed on a downward spiral.
WHERE RICHMOND CAN WIN:
The Tigers’ avenue to victory will be getting speed on the ball. The Bulldogs like a more contested and slow game of football which protects their defence and the Tigers are the complete opposite and love chaos football. The likes of Shai Bolton, Daniel Rioli, Kamdyn McIntosh and Liam Baker are vital cogs to this Richmond team and if they can get the ball forward quickly the Tigers have shown they can score heavily since Andrew McQualter took over as coach. Richmond have averaged 96 points a game over the last month and the Bulldogs have struggled against small and medium-sized forwards which the Tigers have plenty of. The lack of Dustin Martin will hurt the Tigers massively but the likes of Noah Cumberland, Liam Baker, Marlion Pickett, and Rhyan Mansell will have to do the damage for the Tigers. If they can get it in there quickly, they can kick a winning score.
TIP: The Tigers will struggle without Dusty. Bulldogs by six goals in a comfortable win.
ESSENDON VS WEST COAST – SATURDAY 1.45PM – MARVEL STADIUM
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The Bombers face the last placed Eagles on Saturday afternoon in what must be said, is a match that is hard to get excited about. Essendon have lost four of their last five and face an uphill battle to play finals and the Eagles are playing for pride. Jeremy McGovern and Josh Rotham come back in for the Eagles whilst Elijah Tsatas will debut for the Bombers.
MATCH OVERVIEW:
Both of these teams struggle around the clearances and contested ball. Outside of Darcy Parish the Bombers don’t have another really good inside midfielder and the same can be said for Tim Kelly and the rest of the Eagles midfield. The game will be won and lost in this area. Without Jordan Ridley, Essendon are conceding on average 104 points a game over the last three weeks and without Tom Barrass the Eagles’ defence looks very shaky as well. Whichever team can get on top around the contested ball (which will lead to easy inside 50s) is the likely winner. Both teams have weapons inside forward fifty and if they get a good look at it, they can kick a winning score.
TIP: Essendon by four goals. It will be closer than some are predicting.
ADELAIDE VS GOLD COAST – SATURDAY 2.10PM – ADELAIDE OVAL
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Both Adelaide and Gold Coast find themselves on nine wins after twenty rounds and both teams must win in order to keep their season alive. Gold Coast were excellent when beating Brisbane last week whilst Adelaide were also fantastic when beating Port Adelaide in the Showdown. If they play like they did last week, this game should be an excellent contest. Touk Miller goes out for the Suns whilst Jordan Butts and Rory Sloane go out for the Crows.
WHERE ADELAIDE CAN WIN:
The Crows strength is how quickly they can score and that is evident by them ranking first for points per game this season. Gold Coast can be scored against heavily at times and the likes of Taylor Walker (61 goals), Darcy Fogarty (30 goals), and Ben Keays (18 goals) can hit the scoreboard hard. The Crows will look to use speed around the ground to try and attack the Suns lack of leg speed and if they can outrun them and get the ball in quickly towards their potent forwards, they can kick a winning score.
WHERE THE SUNS CAN WIN:
Gold Coast pride themselves on being dominant around clearance and contested ball and it is the area they will try and exploit again on Saturday. Adelaide are a poor clearance and contested ball team and the Suns have two of the best inside midfielders in the game in Matt Rowell and Noah Anderson. They combined for nineteen clearances, forty-three disposals, and three goals the last time these two teams played each other and I don’t see how the Crows can stop them this time around either. With Jordan Butts going out of the side the Crows defence is very inexperienced with James Borlase (debutant), Josh Worrell (13 games), and Mark Keane (6 games) being the key posts. Jack Lukosius and Ben King were dominant in their last encounter in Darwin and there is a high chance of that happening again.
TIP: Gold Coast by two goals. They can surprise the Crows at home.
HAWTHORN VS COLLINGWOOD – SATURDAY 4.35PM – MCG
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Two modern-day foes face off at the MCG in what is a game that always attracts a big crowd. The Hawks and Magpies have faced off in plenty of finals over the last couple of decades but that is a far cry to now where the Pies are a game clear on top whilst the Hawks are a bottom-four outfit. The Pies have only lost three games for the season and the Hawks have won just five, which tells you where both clubs are at. There is a host of changes at the Hawks which sees Sam Frost out of the side whilst Bobby Hill and Ash Johnson return for the Pies in the absence of Mason Cox.
MATCH OVERVIEW:
The young Hawthorn midfield have done a good job at holding their own this season and I can’t see that changing against a Collingwood outfit who whilst having a good midfield, don’t have a brilliant one. The area that the game will be won and lost in is whether Hawthorn can break through the Magpie defence. The likes of Darcy Moore, Nathan Murphy, Isaac Quaynor, and Brayden Maynard have been terrific all year and the Hawks rank sixteenth in points per game. Collingwood rank as the best defensive team in the league and outside of Mitch Lewis and Luke Bruest, they struggle to find goal scorers. The Magpies should be able to kick a winning score considering the lack of key defenders in the Hawks’ back six.
TIP: Collingwood should win easily. Magpies by over seven goals.
GEELONG VS PORT ADELAIDE – SATURDAY 7.25PM – GMHBA STADIUM
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There is plenty on the line down at the sleepy hollow that is Geelong on Saturday night. The Cats sit outside the eight and are half a game away from September action and they come up against Port Adelaide who now need to keep winning to get a home final. Aliir Aliir goes out of the side and Tom Jonas returns whilst Tom Hawkins and Mark Blicavs go out for the Cats with Esava Ratugolea coming back into the 22.
WHERE GEELONG CAN WIN:
Without Aliir or Lachie Jones the Port Adelaide defence becomes very undersized and the likes of Jeremy Cameron, Gary Rohan, and in all likelihood, Jack Henry might really stretch the Power defence whose tallest player is Trent McKenzie at 191cm. The Power defence can be scored against rather easily and if it is a dry night and the Cats can even up general play it will be hard for Port Adelaide to stop Geelong from putting on a big score. The last time the teams played each other it was a complete smashing in the clearances which led to easy inside fifty marks for the Power. The Geelong midfield need to even up the contest and give their forward line an opportunity to kick a winning score against an undersized Port defence.
WHERE THE POWER CAN WIN:
The Power will look to replicate what they did to Geelong at home on Saturday by gaining the ascendancy around the contest. Port Adelaide are ranked as the sixth best clearance team in the league whilst Geelong are ranked fourteenth and are still missing the likes of Guthrie and Blicavs. If they can get on top in this area, it spells trouble for Geelong considering Port are ranked third in points per game this season. If they can get on top around the ball, they will control the game and allow the likes of Dixon, Marshall, and Finlayson to kick a winning score.
TIP: Hard game to predict this one. Port Adelaide by under a goal in a thriller.
GWS GIANTS VS SYDNEY SWANS – SATURDAY 7.30PM – GIANTS STADIUM
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This is slowly becoming one of football’s greatest rivalries and we see another edition of it on Saturday Night. The Giants have won seven in a row and find themselves in the top six whilst the Swans have won their last three and sit half a game out of the eight. Jesse Hogan and Tom Green come in for the Giants whilst Dane Rampe and Lance Franklin go out for the Swans with Aaron Francis and Tom Hickey coming in.
WHERE THE GIANTS CAN WIN:
The Giants midfield needs to lift and it is the one area of the team that is really struggling currently. They rank as the fourth worst clearance team in the competition and the last time these two teams met, they were beaten by eleven in centre bounce clearances and it was the only thing that kept Sydney in the contest. Fortunately for the Giants, Sydney rank as the second-worst clearance team in the competition. The inclusion of Tom Green is an important one for the Giants and if the likes of Josh Kelly, Stephen Coniglio, and Callan Ward can get enough ball inside fifty, the undersized and under-strength Sydney defence that is missing Paddy McCartin and Dane Rampe may struggle against the likes of Jesse Hogan, Jake Riccardi, and Toby Greene. Even the contest and it will go a long way to winning the game.
WHERE SYDNEY CAN WIN:
Sydney need to find different avenues to goal if they are to win this game and their two key forwards in Logan McDonald and Joel Amartey need to at the very minimum compete and bring the ball to ground. Lance Franklin (not playing) and Logan McDonald combined for six goals the last time these two teams met but Sam Taylor wasn’t playing and he is arguably the best defender in the game. Jack Buckley has been good at holding the second forward and that allows the likes of Nick Haynes and Connor Idun to intercept at will. The likes of Isaac Heneey, Tom Papley, and Will Hayward probably need to combine for at least eight goals if the Swans are to keep their season alive because it is hard to see the key forwards having much of an influence.
TIP: Think the Giants stamp themselves in the eight here. GWS by four goals in a high-scoring game!
NORTH MELBOURNE VS MELBOURNE – SUNDAY 1.10PM – BLUNDSTONE ARENA
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North Melbourne are potentially at their lowest ebb as a football club after losing to the Eagles last week in Perth who had only won one game for the season, whilst the Demons had one of the best wins of their season when beating an in-form Richmond outfit at the MCG ad now sit at ease in the top four.
MATCH OVERVIEW:
Everything points to it being a long day at the office for the Kangaroos. Their only shinning light may be the fact that Melbourne’s forwards (at least individually) can be subdued in 1v1 contests. The likes of Jacob Van Rooyen and Harrison Petty don’t strike fear into many defences but if the North Melbourne midfield allow the Demons easy ball coming out of stoppages it seems likely that it will be near on impossible for the Kangaroos to defend. Melbourne should be able to control the game from defence with Lever and May going up against a one man band in Nick Larkey and I think it should be comfortable for the Demons.
TIP: Melbourne 40+. I think it will be an easy day out for the Demons.
ST KILDA VS CARLTON – SUNDAY 3.20PM – MARVEL STADIUM
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The fifth-placed Saints take on the seventh-placed Blues in what should be a blockbuster on Sunday afternoon. For the winner, finals are nearly assured and for the loser, they are right back in the pack and fighting for their season over the next three weeks. Carlton have won six in a row and are coming off a win against table toppers Collingwood whilst the Saints bounced back to form against the Hawks. Max King, Brad Hill, and Jack Hayes are the likely inclusions for the Saints whilst Carlton will miss Adam Cerra and Mitch McGovern with Ed Curnow and Sam Durdin the likely replacements.
WHERE THE SAINTS CAN WIN:
The last time these two teams played each other the Saints made the Carlton dominance in disposal a non-factor and they need to do that again here. Without Harry McKay the Saints should be able to double-team Charlie Curnow providing there is some pressure up the ground and the other Blues forwards (with them also missing Jack Silvagni) can also find it hard to kick multiple goals. The other area in which the Saints must fire in is their contested ball and clearance work. Without Adam Cerra and Sam Walsh, the Blues are missing on average eight clearances a game and that puts plenty of pressure on Captain Patrick Cripps. If the likes of Jack Steele, Brad Crouch, and Mitch Owens can win their own ball and apply pressure going the other way, it will go a long way in making sure they can shut down the Blues’ scoring opportunities again.
WHERE THE BLUES CAN WIN:
Carlton have went back to their clearance and contested work being their one wood and even though they are missing some midfielders the likes of Patrick Cripps, Ed Curnow, George Hewett, Sam Docherty, and Paddy Dow can still get some dominance in their against most teams and the Saints, statistically, are a poor clearance team. By getting on top in this area they can protect their defence (who are now without Mitch McGovern) and give their forwards good opportunities to both kick goals and to apply pressure which the likes of Fogarty, Owies, Motlop, and Cunningham have been doing over the last month. Get on top around the ball and the Blues are a big chance. Don’t, and the Saints will shut them down just like they did earlier this season.
TIP: Absolutely no idea. I trust Carlton more so the Blues by ten points in a close one.
FREMANTLE VS BRISBANE – SUNDAY 4.40PM – OPTUS STADIUM
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The season looks over for the Dockers but they still are playing for pride at home against a Premiership fancy and they will want to give their supporters something to be happy about. Brisbane on the other hand, are fighting for a home Preliminary Final which could go a long way to them winning a Premiership. Oscar McInerney and Keidan Coleman will go out for the Lions whilst the Dockers are likely to remain unchanged.
MATCH OVERVIEW:
Well, the obvious question is where both teams can win. For Fremantle, it is probably to play brilliant counter attack football which they can do at times. The likes of Hayden Young, Jordan Clark, Luke Ryan, Liam Henry, and Sam Switkowski can be devastating by hand or with leg speed if you don’t apply pressure to them and if they do get some open space, they can win the game for Fremantle if they get it in there quick and let the smalls like Schultz, Walters, and Frederick go to work.
For Brisbane, it is to dominate the contest and apply pressure around the ball which can let them control the game. They are the best clearance team in the competition and the Dockers can struggle with that which allows the likes of Jackson Payne, Harris Andrews, and Ryan Lester to intercept whilst at the other end of the ground allow quick ball into the likes of Joe Daniher, Eric Hipwood, Charlie Cameron, and Cameron Rayner. It seems and looks as though this will be what happens on Sunday afternoon.
TIP: Brisbane by five goals. The Lions have too much on the line to be dropping this.