We get back into the AFL betting action this week as we lead into the finals where every Tom, Dick & Harry want to bet on the footy. If someone does ask – point them this way if you like them. If You don’t, maybe just refer them to Sportsbets’ popular multi-section. There are some big games this weekend with big finals ramifications but as always, we will be trying to pinpoint areas where the market is wrong which in turn is leading us to basically analyse every game. Let’s get into it!
COLLINGWOOD VS GEELONG – FRIDAY 7.50PM – MCG
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There doesn’t seem to be any value in the H2H markets or line markets in this game. I think the bookmakers have got this one right (Cats will probably start a touch shorter) but there is some prop bets that have caught my attention.
JOSH DAICOS 25+ DISPOSALS – $1.70
Without his brother or Steele Sidebottom in the side you would expect him to be the main outlet man for the likes of Mitchell and De Goey to give it too and he does have a good record against the Cats. His last three games against Geelong have seen him gather 29, 27, and 21 disposals and those Geelong wingers are another year older and a touch slower so if it does become a free flowing contest, he will do them for speed and undoubtedly cover the ground better than they will. He’ll have a good night!
JORDAN DE GOEY 25+ DISPOSALS – $2
The Cats have struggled against other teams’ inside midfielders in recent weeks considering the injuries to Guthrie and Blicavs and this guy is the Magpies’ best inside and clearance midfielder and I expect him to get plenty of ball both in the contest and explode away from the contest. He has had just an even last six weeks and I expect him to start firing on the run to the finals. He could be the match winner.
GARY ROHAN 2+ GOALS – $2.80/3+ GOALS – $7
Ah the enigma that is Gary Rohan. As much as we love to get into him, he is important to what the Cats do forward of fifty and he has been terrific against the Magpies in recent years recording three and two goals against them the last two times they have met. With Nathan Murphy under an injury cloud and Isaac Quaynor likely going to Ollie Henry, it might free up Rohan and allow him to hit the scoreboard. We are getting decent odds to find out!
ESSENDON VS NORTH MELBOURNE – SATURDAY 1.45PM – MARVEL STADIUM
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Yet again, I can’t see much value in this game from a H2H or line betting market. I could have the Kangaroos a touch shorter considering they were only beaten by 6 points the last time they played but Essendon still have finals to play for and will want to bounce back after a poor game last week. I have found just the one prop bet I do like though.
ZACH MERRETT 30+ DISPOSALS – $1.75
Zach Merrett loves playing against the Kangaroos, recording 34 and 39 disposals the last two times the teams have met. North Melbourne struggle against inside midfielders and I think he and Darcy Parish should rack them up against an inexperienced North Melbourne midfield.
SYDNEY VS GOLD COAST – SATURDAY 1.45PM – SCG
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I think the TOTAL GAME POINTS UNDERS (+165.5) seems like a good bet here. Both teams’ defensive systems have held up okay over the last month and neither team scores overly heavily either. Happy to take the Unders as they would have to buck the trend to go over it. I like a few prop bets here.
MATT ROWELL 20+ DISPOSALS – $1.95/25+ DISPOSALS – $4.80
The young Gold Coast Bull was tremendous the last time these two teams met in round one when recording 28 disposals and nine clearances and it would not surprise me if he did that again here. The Swans are still the worst clearance team in the competition and Rowell still averages close to eight clearances a game. I think you can pretty much bank ten disposals just from clearances in this game and he only needs to find another 10-15 disposals around the ground which he is very capable of doing.
NOAH ANDERSON 30+ DISPOSALS – $2.80
This is the same logic that I used for the Rowell bet. Sydney give up disposals to inside midfielders like Willy Wonka gives out chocolate bars and Anderson is the highest disposal-getting inside midfielder at the Suns. I think he and Rowell will find plenty of the ball and give the Suns a fair chance of winning the game by winning the territory battle for the Suns.
NICK BLAKEY 20+ DISPOSALS – $1.70/25+ DISPOSALS – $3.90
Gold Coast can struggle handling these running/intercept defenders purely because they don’t have the speed or willingness to chase and pressure at times and Blakey has made the most of that over the last two meetings recording 20 and 25 disposals. If he is allowed the license to run and carry, I think he can have a big game and drag the Swans across the line.
BRISBANE VS ADELAIDE – SATURDAY 4.35PM – GABBA
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I am happy to back BRISBANE AT THE LINE (-21.5) here. The Crows got the better of them earlier in the season but inaccuracy did cost the Lions when they kicked 10.18 and the Gabba is an absolute fortress for the Lions. They should be beating the Crows by at least four goals on Saturday. I like a couple of prop bets here too.
JOSH DUNKLEY/LACHIE NEALE 30+ DISPOSALS – $2.90 & $2.35 RESPECTIVELY
I think the reason why the Lions will win is due to the dominance they will have in the midfield battle and that will be led by these two who are both superstars of the competition. The Adelaide midfield ranks as one of the worst in the competition for clearances and contested ball and that is the area of the game these two thrive on. I thought they both should have been in the red in this market. They will be the match winners for the Lions.
MELBOURNE VS CARLTON – SATURDAY 7.25PM – MCG
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I think the obvious bet here is the TOTAL POINTS UNDER (+167.5) – $1.88 market. These two teams haven’t gone anywhere near that mark in their last two contests and I would argue their defences are probably stronger than ever considering both teams are in brilliant form. I like a couple of prop bets.
ANGUS BRAYSHAW 25+ DISPOSALS – $1.70/30+ DISPOSALS – $3.30
Brayshaw has been very good this season and has a terrific record as of late against Carlton. He has recorded 24 and 39 disposals in his last two encounters with the Blues and Carlton do struggle to contain those running half back and winger types which is what he is. He has hit the 25 disposal mark in four of his last five games and I think he will again here.
MAX GAWN 20+ DISPOSALS – $1.80
Big Max has been in brilliant touch since Brodie Grundy has been dropped and I think he finds a pretty weak ruck partnership to go up against in Marc Pittonet and Tom DeKoning. He only got the seventeen disposals last week but they were horrible conditions for ruckmen down in Tasmania and in his three weeks prior to that he recorded 28, 13, and 29 disposals. He will be the Blues’ main concern all night.
WEST COAST VS FREMANTLE – SATURDAY 8.10PM – OPTUS STADIUM
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I think if you are betting on this game all you can do is lose. The first thought was to look at the inside midfielders for both teams but then I saw Tim Kelly at $1.40 for 25 disposals and Caleb Serong at $1.19. West Coast have been playing a touch better so I think the line is about right as well. Leaving this one alone.
HAWTHORN VS WESTERN BULLDOGS – SUNDAY 1.10PM – UTAS STADIUM
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There is no value betting opportunities in the H2H or line markets in this contest. I did entertain the idea of the unders in the total points market but I also think the key forwards from both teams could play well. I like a few prop bets.
MITCH LEWIS 3+ GOALS – $1.90
All he has to do is kick straight to be hitting this mark. In their earlier contest this season he had just returned from injury and kicked 1.4 and he kicked 4.2 against this team last year. He is an incredibly good player and I think their defence will struggle to contain him.
AARON NAUGHTON 3+ GOALS – $2.40
I think Sicily will go to Ugle-Hagan which allows Naughton to get a favourable match up on whoever he plays against. He has recorded 4.3, 3.3, and 3.1 in his last three games against the Hawks and I can’t see that changing on Sunday. He will simply be too big and too athletic for whoever plays on him.
CALEB DANIEL 25+ DISPOSALS – $2.20
The Hawks give up disposals to half back and wingers and that is why Daniel should be hitting the 25 disposal mark here. The Dogs like to get the ball in his hands and I expect them to win the inside battle which should allow him to get some cheapies on the way to 25 disposals.
ST KILDA VS RICHMOND – SUNDAY 3.20PM – MARVEL STADIUM
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The Tigers just don’t win at Marvel and that’s why I think the SAINTS H2H – $1.80 is a good bet. Last year when these teams met at Marvel the Saints beat the Tigers by 33 points for the Tigers to win the return fixture at their favoured MCG. I would argue that the Saints are better now and the Tigers want the season to be over. I like a few prop bets in this one.
BRAD CROUCH 30+ DISPOSALS – $2.10
The Tigers, outside of Tim Taranto and at times Shai Bolton, are horrid at containing opposition inside midfielders. The last two times these teams have met Crouch has had 33 and 29 disposals and I can’t see that changing in this game. With Jack Steele carrying an injury Crouch has stepped up to be the main man in that midfielders and the Tigers don’t tag. He’ll find plenty of the footy.
MARCUS WINDHAGER 20+ DISPOSALS – $1.95/25+ DISPOSALD – $4.80
With the likes of Clark and Billings out for the Saints, Windhager has had more midfield minutes and has taken the opportunity well. He has gone over 25 in two of his last four matches and I don’t think the Saints will be too conscious of the Tigers midfield which will allow him to go and hunt his own footy and if he does that, I can see him having a pretty big game.
JAYDEN SHORT 25+ DISPOSALS – $1.95
Short consistently hits around this number and he plays well against the Saints who historically struggle against half backs. In his last two games against the Saints, he has recorded 23 and 31 disposals and I think the ball will be in the Tigers defensive fifty enough for Short to find plenty of the ball. The Tigers love it in his hands, especially at Marvel.
SAM BANKS 15+ DISPOSALS – $1.70
Being a Tigers man I am pretty keen on this young man’s future and I think he can find plenty of the football on Sunday. He is very much like a young Jayden Short in terms of being a brilliant and long kick and as I said previously, the Saints struggle against those types in regard to containing their influence. He won’t really have a direct opponent and that should allow him to find the ball.
PORT ADELAIDE VS GWS – SUNDAY 4.40PM – ADELAIDE OVAL
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With rumours of sickness sweeping through the Power this week, I think GWS AT THE LINE (+15.5) – $1.90 seems like a good bet. I love the way Adam Kingsley has this group playing and I think without Charlie Dixon the avenues to goal for the Power dry up and without Trent McKenzie (assumedly) the Toby Greene match-up shapes as a very dangerous one. I like a few prop bets.
DAN HOUSTON 25+ DISPOSALS – $2
I thought this might be the best value of the round. The Giants have allowed half backs to do what they like all year and Houston essentially plays like one and is a model of consistency hitting this mark in three of his last four games. The ball will be in neutral territory a fair bit in this game and that suits him. Should be hitting this mark.
KANE FARRELL 20+ DISPOSALS – $3.50
Bit more speculative this one but it is based off the idea that the Giants give up easy ball to small running defenders and that Port love it in his hands. He has hit this mark in two of his last five games but he does play better at home and outside of Greene the Port small defenders won’t have any major concerns which should allow him to try and attack.
HARRY HIMMELBERG 25+ DISPOSALS – $3
I thought he would be closer to red figures than black ones but here we are. Sam Taylor and Jack Buckley will take the two key forwards in Todd Marshall and Jeremy Finlayson which will allow him to be the main intercept defender all day. He had 26 a fortnight ago and in that game he took 12 marks and I can see him doing something similar again here.
So, those are my bets for this weekend? What are your best bets?
Think About What You Could Be Buying Instead. Set A Deposit Limit.