After a poor week last week, we will aim to bounce back in the penultimate round of the AFL season. We are marginally in profit over the course of the year but it has been a rollercoaster emotionally with some big highs and some very horrible lows. We kick off the week with Collingwood taking on Brisbane in a top-four clash and we have an action-packed Saturday afternoon with 9th vs 10th, 6th vs 11th, and 7th vs 12th with only a game and a half separating them which will mean the Saturday afternoon will be the end of the season for some clubs. As always, we will try and find some holes in the market. Let’s get cracking!
COLLINGWOOD VS BRISBANE – FRIDAY 7.50PM – MARVEL STADIUM
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I think there is some value to be found in this game. COLLINGWOOD 1-39 – $2.30 seems like a good bet. The Pies don’t really put teams to the sword a whole lot but I think they will do enough to be beating Brisbane who seem to fall short against the best teams. Darcy Moore is a big out but the Pies system is the best in the competition. TOTAL GAME POINTS OVER (+168.5) – $1.88 also seems a good bet. In their last two encounters, the totals have been 199 and 189 which are well above this mark. On a fast deck at Marvel, the ball should be pinging around quickly and both attacks have the capability of kicking a big score. I like a couple of prop bets.
ZAC BAILEY 20+ DISPOSALS – $2.20
He has hit this mark in two of his last five games and has been very close to hitting it in another two. With Will Ashcroft missing he is playing a bigger role throughout the middle of the ground and the Pies have struggled to contain inside midfielders over the last six weeks. He plays his best footy against the Magpies and I think he will play well again on Friday Night.
JORDAN DE GOEY 2+ GOALS – $3.60/3+ GOALS – $11
I thought this represented good value. Admittedly, his goal-kicking has been missing for the best part of two months but he does love playing against Brisbane and the last year when these two teams played, he kicked four and was probably the best afield. He averages two goals a game against the Lions since 2019 and has played them five times in that period which I feel like is a solid sample size. Speculative, but we are getting a good price to find out.
RICHMOND VS NORTH MELBOURNE – SATURDAY 1.45PM – MCG
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I think the obvious bet is RICHMOND 1-39 – $2.20. The Tigers don’t usually smash teams but they should do enough to beat the hapless Kangaroos in what will be Trent Cotchin and Jack Riewoldt’s last game in the Yellow and Black. Shout out to those two. As a Richmond supporter, they have been all I have ever known as a footy supporter. Icons of this great football club. I like some of the prop bets here.
LIAM BAKER 2+ GOALS – $2.90/3+ GOALS – $7.50
This might be the bet of the weekend. Baker has kicked two goals in three of his last four games and in most of those he has been playing against much better defences than this one. The major focus will be on Jack Riewoldt and Dustin Martin from a North Melbourne perspective and he will again hit the scoreboard here. His chances might even enhance with rain which you can’t say about many forwards.
JY SIMPKIN 25+ DISPOSALS – $1.95/30+ DISPOSALS – $4.25
He hasn’t been at his ball-winning best as of late but he has every chance to bounce back to that here. This Richmond midfield give away disposals to inside midfielders every week and in his last two encounters with the Tigers, he has recorded 34 disposals on both occasions. I think he should be much shorter than that current quote.
LUKE DAVIES-UNIACKE 30+ DISPOSALS – $2.20
He is one of the best inside midfielders in the competition and he loves playing against the Tigers. He has recorded 28 and 38 disposals in his last two meetings with Richmond and has hit this mark in two out of his last four games against better midfields. I think he will be the leading possession-getter on the ground.
NICK VLASTUIN 20+ DISPOSALS – $1.95/25+ DISPOSALS – $6
I think the Tigers defenders will find plenty of ball in this game and Vlastuin will be given the role of intercepting again this week and will find plenty of the footy. In his last two games against the Kangaroos he has recorded 22 and 30 disposals and I think the ball will be in North’s forward fifty enough for the Tigers intercept and rebounding defenders to find the footy.
GOLD COAST VS CARLTON – SATURDAY 2.10PM – HERITAGE BANK STADIUM
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This is a horrible betting game regarding prop betting but I think there is one obvious bet here and that is CARLTON AT THE LINE (-10.5) – $1.90. The Blues have won eight in a row and will seemingly get Harry McKay back in what is a big boost to their forward line. The one area the Suns are brilliant in is their clearance and contested ball work and I feel like Carlton’s midfield will negate that which will render the Suns’ game plan ineffective. They beat them by ten goals only nine weeks ago so I think the current line is fairly generous.
GWS GIANTS VS ESSENDON – SATURDAY 4.35PM – GIANTS STADIUM
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This is a horrible betting game. The inside midfielders should dominate but there is no value around players being $1.50 to get 30+ disposals or forwards at $1.60 to kick 3+ goals. Just watch this one!
ST KILDA VS GEELONG – SATURDAY 7.25PM – MARVEL STADIUM
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There are some nice betting opportunities under the roof on Saturday Night. The main bet is GEELONG 1-39 – $2.20. I think the Cats are a better team than the Saints who have overachieved to this point of the season and Geelong are playing for their season here. Tom Hawkins is likely to return to stretch the Saints back six and I think the likes of Atkins, Holmes, and Bruhn can match it with the Saints midfielders. There is good value around some prop bets.
BRAD CROUCH 30+ DISPOSALS – $2.50
This is Brad Crouch’s midfield now and I think he will lead the way again against the Cats. He has hit this mark twice in his last three games against arguably better midfields than the Cats when playing Hawthorn and Carlton. He loves playing at Marvel and I think with the dominance Marshall will get in the ruck he will have plenty of opportunities to win clearance and then find plenty of the ball away from the stoppage.
MASON WOOD 25+ DISPOSALS – $3
Geelong have struggled to contain these half-back and winger types all season and I was staggered to see $3 in this market. He has hit this mark in three out of his last four games and he will be too quick and powerful for the outside Geelong players in Mitch Duncan and Isaac Smith. He will find plenty of the footy.
MAX HOLMES 20+ DISPOSALS – $2.30
The last time he played the Saints he garnered 24 disposals and he plays good footy at Marvel Stadium historically. I expect the game to be fast-paced so whether he plays on the wing or throughout the middle of the ground, he should still find plenty of the ball.
ZACH GUTHRIE 20+ DISPOSALS – $3
We won on Guthrie when he was around the same price a while ago and we think he can win again for us here. The Saints struggle against intercept defenders and once the Saints lock down on Stewart I think Guthrie will be the man tasked with intercepting the Saints’ forward fifty entries and aside from Max King and Jack Higgins, the Saints’ forward line won’t prove too much of a threat as long as the ball has some pressure on it when coming out of stoppages.
ADELAIDE VS SYDNEY – SATURDAY 7.40PM – ADELAIDE OVAL
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The main is bet is ADELAIDE AT THE LINE (-11.5) – $1.90 here. The Crows are brilliant at home and I think their improvement around clearance and contested ball combined with the potency of their forward fifty will be enough to see them winning by at least two goals against this Sydney team. I like some prop bets.
RORY LAIRD 30+ DISPOSALS – $2.08
The last time Laird played the Swans was when he recorded 38 disposals and was clearly the best player on the ground. He is one of the best accumulators in football this man and he will be inside the contest which means he will most likely find plenty of the footy against a very poor contested ball team in Sydney.
MATT CROUCH 30+ DISPOSALS – $2.10
Rinse and repeat what I said about Laird. Crouch is an accumulator and is fantastic around clearance and contested ball which is an area Sydney are very poor in. He has had thirty in each of his last three games and I can’t see that changing on Saturday night.
TOM PAPLEY 2+ GOALS – $1.70/3+ GOALS – $3.20
The Crows struggle against small forwards and have done all season and this guy is one of the best small forwards going around. Arguably in All-Australian contention, I expect Papley to get a good match-up in this game and for the likes of Amartey, McDonald, and McLean to bring the ball to the ground enough to ensure he gets his chances to hit the scoreboard.
WESTERN BULLDOGS VS WEST COAST – SUNDAY 1.10PM – MARVEL STADIUM
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This is the definition of a no-bet game. The odds on the Bulldogs players are unders because the bookies are scared and I can’t see the Eagles hitting the scoreboard or getting their hands on the footy too much.
MELBOURNE VS HAWTHORN – SUNDAY 3.20PM – MCG
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There is no value in the H2H or line/handicap betting here. Melbourne should win and the line is probably about right, whilst I also have no confidence on how high-scoring the game will be. I like one prop bet here.
LACHIE HUNTER 25+ DISPOSALS – $2.60
The Hawks have struggled against outside winger types over the last month and Hunter is in career-best form. He has hit this mark in three out of his last five games and I am happy to back him in here.
FREMANTLE VS PORT ADELAIDE – SUNDAY 4.40PM – OPTUS STADIUM
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Yet again for this Sunday, I don’t think there is any value in the H2H or line and handicap betting. Port Adelaide should win, but their form hasn’t been good losing four of their last five whilst the Dockers can play some good footy at home. I like some prop bets.
ZAK BUTTERS 30+ DISPOSALS – $2
He is playing against a midfield who is of a similar size than him and he absolutely feasts on these types of midfields. That was evident in the Showdown when he was brilliant against a midfield that consisted of Rory Laird and Matt Crouch. Aside from Caleb Serong, this Fremantle midfield struggles in the contest and has done so all season which I assume Butters will take full advantage of.
SAM STURT 2+ GOALS – $2.25
Port Adelaide’s defence is arguably their weak link and they struggle against medium-sized forwards which is what Sturt is, to a degree. He has kicked eleven goals in his last five games and has hit this mark three times in that run so at better than even money, I am happy to back him in again here.
GAMBLE RESPONSIBLY. CHANCES ARE YOU ARE ABOUT TO LOSE. SET A DEPOSIT LIMIT.