After a 3U profit last week, we head to Moonee Valley this Saturday for what should be some strong racing. We have a ten race program in store for punters with the feature being the Carlyon Stakes over 1000m for the sprinters. The support cast is somewhat strong with some good two-year-olds now resuming at three and it will be interesting to see how they come back and whether some will improve enough to be key players in the Spring. The rail goes back to the 4m position which should favour that up and in pattern. Hopefully, we don’t have to readjust too much on race day for the track bias but it is always a concern at the Valley. Let’s get into it!
RACE 1: 3-Y-O COLTS & GELDINGS PLATE, 1200M
Interesting map here. JEWEL BAY (3) should kick up from a low draw to lead whilst the likes of THE YEARS (2) and PRINZERRO (5) should sit handy. MOUNT OLYMPUS (8) shouldn’t be too far away whilst the rest of the field will most likely settle midfield or worse. I don’t think they will go overly quick.
THE YEARS ($4.80) goes on top. I don’t have too much trust in the Waterhouse and Bott stable with first-up horses currently but I think he is the best horse in the race and he maps well. I think he had enough at the end of last preparation when 6L off Amur ($4.60 here) and his run before that in the Black Opal when leading at a very fast tempo was terrific considering he only ran second and 2L away from a good horse in Autumn Ballet. His trials have been fantastic leading into this and there is no real knock outside the trainer and first-up concern. He seems like an easy bet to have.
PRINZERRO ($7) was very good against the bias at this track last start and I am prepared to put a pen through most of that meeting. His trials leading into that first-up run were good and I thought he showed plenty of talent on debut when running a close second. He maps to get the run of the race and he has the benefit of having the run under his belt. He should only improve off that first-up run here.
AMUR ($4.60) is two from two at the Valley and did beat our on top selection by 6L last preparation. I am just querying the form through his whole preparation as a juvenile. The only quality animals he raced against were Veight and Maharaba and they both accounted for him with ease. His trials have just been even and he will get back on what could be a track suited to those on-speed. No thanks.
MANSIERE ($4) was a good winner on a heavy track two-back but I thought he had every chance over 1000m here a fortnight ago. He will get back which is a negative but the positive is that he is rock-hard fit and deep into a preparation. I think he is slightly unders considering the form he brings in.
TIP: Happy to have something small on The Years. 0.75U WIN #2 THE YEARS @$4.80.
RACE 2: BENCHMARK 70 HANDICAP, 1200M
Interesting map here. MISO (5) will have to cross from a wide gate (16) to try and sit handy whilst the likes of LORD DOMINO (7), SHARPER (11), and BRAZEN LADY (13) kick up underneath him. THE PRODIGAL SON (9) maps to get a nice run just behind them and MAWALOCK (14) has a decision to make from a low draw. Do they show intent and kick up or go back and ride for luck? They should go at a decent clip.
MAWALOCK ($3) goes on top in a very even race. I think she is the best horse in the race and she has plenty of upside. She is two from three so far in her career and I loved the way in which she hit the line behind two decent city-class horses in Miss Middle Park and Our Heidi at the end of last preparation. One could argue she should have won that race and I think that is the best form line leading into this. She trialled nicely leading into this first-up run but from the low gate (4) the map and her chances could get very hairy if she gets back and on the rail. I can see it easily happening and she has also just had the one trial. $3 is under the odds but she is the best winning chance.
HARBIN ($10) goes well at the Valley and generally does his best racing third-up so there is a bit to like. I thought his first-up run was good over an unsuitable trip of 1000m at Donald and he was a bit flat/also outclassed last start behind some handy horses in Rheinberg and Place of Gold. He can bounce back here and run well.
THE PRODIGAL SON ($4) can be hit and miss and the key to him might be that he needs it bone dry. He was brilliant down the straight last start but it must be said that he didn’t beat much. He is the map horse, Oliver is on, and this is most likely a target race. Ticks some boxes.
MISO ($7) has plenty of upside but strikes a horrible set-up. He must lug around 61kgs, he draws out in the car park (16) and will have to work to get to the front/sit on the speed, and he is a very big striding horse who loves big and spacious tracks. He will improve on whatever he does here next start.
TIP: Horrible race to be honest. Watch and learn. Smile and wave.
RACE 3: 3-Y-O HANDICAP, 1500M
Important map here. ROCKABILLY REBEL (10) and AMBASSADORIAL (4) are the likely leaders coming across from slightly awkward draws. ROBRICK (3) will settle just in behind them and get the run of the race and FISTSOFFURY (2) should settle with it. RIPROAR (6) has a decision to make from the widest gate. If they show some intent and lead it will change the race dynamic. They will go at a moderate tempo here. Only two horses will want to camp on speed.
AMBASSADORIAL ($27) seems overs off the rating he put up last start at Sandown. Yes, he started at $91 on that occasion, but the Blinkers clearly worked and he wore them in a recent trial that he won by nearly 6L at Flemington. I also think he gets a similar set-up here than what he did in that Sandown race. I think he either leads/sits on speed at a moderate tempo and then gets to try and get them off the bit early and then outstay them late. He reaches this race third-up, steps out to the 1500m which seems suitable being by Fiorente, and the Childs and Waterhouse & Bott combination strike at 25%. He should be half the current quote.
FISTSOFFURY ($4.40) should get plenty of favours rising in trip. He was terrific last preparation when narrowly missing at Sandown over 1300m and he didn’t have much luck in the G2 Sires Produce behind Veight. I love the form reference out of his resuming run at Sandown behind Rheinberg and considering they went so slow early in that race I thought it was a terrific return. He should get a lovely run here, he drops in grade, and he could be worth saving on.
ROBRICK ($3) will get the run of the race. He was super last start at Flemington over 1400m when winning by 2L. He never looked like losing that race and he gets a similar set-up here from the ideal gate (3). He faces a stiffer test here but the favours he will get might overcome that. I think $3 is well under the odds considering he hasn’t beaten anything of quality and it is the first time he has been to the Valley.
RIPROAR ($6) is a potential Derby type in my eyes. I loved his run fresh when he was 3WNC the trip before being nailed on the line by a tough horse in BM64 grade. He needs it dry but he wasn’t disgraced in a G1 in New Zealand on a Soft track which points to him being a very talented horse.
TIP: Playing the value here. 0.3U EACH WAY #4 AMBASSADORIAL @$27.
RACE 4: BENCHMARK 78 HANDICAP, 1600M
Expect a hot speed here. KING COUVER (10), HENNESSY LAD (7), and HE’S THE REAL DEEL (4) will kick up from low barriers to try and sit on the speed. IRISH ROCKSTAR (16) and IMA SHELBY (1) will try and cross the majority of the field whilst HE’LL RIP (14) and RIVERPLATE (3) have a decision to make on whether they go forward or take up a neutral position in the run.
VITRUVIUS ($21) will be spotting them a start but if the track is playing okay and they do go at the tempo most expect, they will set it up for the back markers and this guy is in terrific form. He was a brilliant winner at Sandown three starts ago over 1500m when beating Tasman Park and he has worked home nicely in recent starts at Caulfield and Flemington when running 2L behind the likes of Brayden Star and Hennessy Lad ($3.20 Fav here). He goes well at the Valley, the Ryan and Currie combination strike at 23% and I think it’s worth having something small on him. Has the ability to win this.
HENNESSY LAD ($3.20) is a deserved favourite but I think he is under the odds here at this quote. I expected it to be essentially $5.50 the field in this race. His two runs this preparation have been good without being amazing. I thought the first-up run was plain but he probably should have beaten Brayden Star last start at Flemington. He maps to get a nice run providing he is ridden with intent early and he could have just been needing a couple of runs to get back to full fitness now he is a touch older.
LEGEND OF DUBAI ($10) has some knocks but none of those are his ability. He will get a long way back on a tight-turning Moonee Valley track that he isn’t accustomed to considering he has done all of his racing in Europe and he might be stuck on the rail which are the knocks. The positives are that he has plenty of upside and that his first-up run over 1400m at Sandown was terrific for longer and he gets that here. He will need luck, but I think he might be the best horse in the race.
CRACKERJACK PRINCE ($7) was brilliant back to a dry track at this T/D last start when winning by 3.5L. He will get a similar run again here and he obviously loves this track. He will need to improve as this is harder, but there is nothing saying he can’t. Sneaky chance.
TIP: Playing the value again here. 0.3U EACH WAY #2 VITRUVIUS @$21.
RACE 5: BENCHMARK 78 HANDICAP, 2500M
I think they will go at a moderate clip here. BAINBRIDGE (4) and MAGNASPIN (7) will likely sit 1-2 in the run and the rest of the map is a bit of a mystery. STRAWBERRY ROCK (2) has the option to settle more forward from a good draw, as does FERAGO (3). I think they will bunch up so most horses should get their chance.
MAGNASPIN ($3) goes on top. He was terrific at this track over 2040m last start when winning by 3.5L and this is only marginally harder. He draws well (5), should lead again and if he gets the trip, he should be hard to run down. Craig Williams is a big positive considering the career-best run last start.
ORBITAL EXPRESS ($18) is one I have always had plenty of time for. She beat Blackcomb two-back in Adelaide over 2009m and was then solid last start when having to sustain a long run at her first go at 2500m. She will be spotting them a start but should be better for the run and seems over the odds.
BAINBRIDGE ($8) and STRAWBERRY ROCK ($9.50) should camp on speed and are the best of the rest.
TIP: Leaving this one alone. No idea how this is a Saturday race at the start of the Spring.
RACE 6: 3-Y-O FILLIES PLATE, 1200M
They should go at a good clip here. OZ EMPRESS (11) and WAIMARIE (12) will try and cross from wide barriers whilst the likes of IPHIMEDIA (6), INHIBITIONS (3), and ANTICKS (10) kick up from the inside. The rest are either looking for further or are natural get back horses which means they will be midfield or worse in the run.
INHIBITIONS ($3.80) is an easy bet to have here. She ran well last preparation but often found one better and I think her effort in the G3 Baillieu Handicap put the writing on the wall for her to come back better as a three-year-old. She trialled up magnificently leading into her first-up run after nearly four months out, was well supported in that resuming race, and was arguably a good thing licked over this trip at Rosehill. She has race fitness over the majority of her rivals (twelve being first-up) and she maps to get the run of the race just in behind the leading pack. She only needs to handle the Melbourne way of going to be winning.
IPHIMEDIA ($10) might be the value runner. The main query I have is whether she does her best on wet tracks but I thought there was plenty to like about her first preparation which culminated in a G3 second in Adelaide. I thought she trialled up well behind two very good horses in Charm Stone and I am Unstoppable and she maps perfectly from a good gate (3) to either lead or sit just behind them. That is where you want to be in this race and I think she has come back better at three.
CROATIAN BELLE ($5.50) loves this track and her trials leading up to this first-up run have been fantastic. She has shown a ton of early speed in those trials and she will need it from a middle draw (5). She had excuses in the Magic Millions and there is a fair bit to like about her pattern/record at the track. I think there are others more talented but she might be ready to fire fresh.
RIGHT TO PARTY ($8) has ability and was terrific up in Queensland in her first preparation. The query is out on whether she is looking for 1600m+ this preparation but if they overdo it in front it wouldn’t surprise to see her flashing home late.
TIP: Happy to be with the favourite here. 1U WIN #3 INHIBITIONS @$3.80.
RACE 7: HANDICAP, 2040M
Important map here over these middle-distance trips. MASERATIE BAY (5) might take it up and lead what should be a very moderate tempo. IRISH FLAME (9) should be handy and the best map horses will be just behind them two in FUTURE HISTORY (8) and JIMMY THE BEAR (4). The rest of the field will settle back.
FUTURE HISTORY ($5) goes on top in an open race. The lightly raced French import was solid on resumption over a mile at Sandown when he was outsprinted early in the straight and his last start second at Caulfield over 2000m when running on strongly late might have put the writing on the wall for a big spike third-up. Admittedly, this is harder, but he drops 8kgs off that and he maps to get the run of the race just off the speed. Trust the stable. He should be hard to hold out.
INTERPRETATION ($4.80) was brilliant on resumption over a mile at this track when flashing home late to clock the races fastest last 400m and 200m splits. There was a big spruik on this horse last Spring and he might be ready to deliver on the hype and promise he showed us back in Europe. Sometimes it takes these horses a preparation or two in Australia to find their best.
JIMMY THE BEAR ($5.50) had excuses two-back at this track over a mile and he was very strong late last start at Caulfield when beating two good horses in Right You Are and Berkeley Square. He should get a nice run here and 2000m is the only query for mine. The anticipated slow tempo should suit him rising in trip.
BRAYDEN STAR ($3.40) is under the odds here and might be a rare Lay betting opportunity. I query whether he is going to be able to handle the Valley (he is a big striding horse) and his last start effort didn’t rate overly well on the clock over a mile. He draws low (4) and will be spotting them a start based on his pattern and that is never ideal at the Valley.
TIP: Leaving this race alone. #8 Future History on top with little confidence.
RACE 8: CARLYON STAKES, LISTED RACE, 1000M
They are going to go like grease lightning here. OMNI MAN (8) and SNAPPER (2) will try and bounce out from low draws and lead them up. ACROMANTULA (7) is a speedy type who will try and cross them, as is HYPOTHETICAL (10) and GENERATION (4). The rest will sit back and try and run over the top of them.
OMNI MAN ($3.20) was a certainty beaten last start at this T/D when a neck away from Sweet Ride ($7.50 here). I am banking on him jumping cleaner this time and either leading or sitting OSL just like he has done in his NSW runs when beating Dragonstone and Tristate with ease. He has no troubles getting around the Valley and I think if he finds the rail and leads, he will be near on impossible to run down. The Childs and Waterhouse & Bott combination strike at 25% which is another positive. He is a good horse.
HYPOTHETICAL ($11) is the value runner. She didn’t have much luck on resumption last preparation when 1.8L away from some handy types in Insurrection and Parisal and she then subsequently won at Kensington before running only 1L away from Zapateo at G3 level and 0.3L away from Snapped in Adelaide when she set a hectic tempo out in front. She has trialled brilliantly leading into this first-up run and she should get a lovely run just behind a hot speed. She can sustain a strong speed which it will be here.
SWEET RIDE ($7.50) had a dream run to beat Omni Man last start but he might get a similar run again here which brings him into the picture. He will need some luck from the low draw (3) to get a run at the right time but he is proven in this grade now and he loves the Valley. He isn’t out of it.
GENERATION ($4) has ran placings behind some brilliant sprinters and his best fresh runs, if they can be replicated, would have him in the finish here. He beat Star Patrol by 1.5L the last time he was first-up which would have him going close here, but there are some knocks. I wasn’t in love with any of his trials leading into this and he draws terribly (10) and will have to cover more ground on what is expected to be a hot tempo. I couldn’t take the $4 personally and think he should be closer to $6. I think he is going just okay and to win a race like this fresh you need to be ready and firing.
TIP: Two bet play here. 1.75U WIN #8 OMNI MAN @$3.20/0.5U WIN #10 HYPOTHETICAL @$11.
RACE 9: BENCHMARK 100 HANDICAP, 1519M
DENY KNOWLEDGE (6) and Wiremu Pinn will decide how the race is run but I don’t think they will want a gut buster first-up so expect a steady tempo. ARRAN BAY (9) will kick up from an inside gate to sit handy and ST LAWRENCE (7) and FRENCH EMPEROR (11) will get the dream runs. The rest of the field will settle midfield or worse.
ST LAWRENCE ($2) looks very hard to beat. He has won six from seven so far in his career and his two runs this preparation have been terrific. He settled 3WNC the entirety on resumption over 1400m at Caulfield and still had the tenacity to fight back and win after being headed over the last 150m, and he then stayed at that T/D last start when toying with his rivals to win by 1.5L. The form coming out of that race is solid and he clocked the fifth fastest final 200m of the day in that race. Rising to 1519m third-up seems ideal and he only has to handle the Valley to be making it seven from eight.
DENY KNOWLEDGE ($6) is the only danger. She finished her last preparation with a 10L win in the Country Oaks at Geelong over 2200m and her start before that was a third in a G3 race behind Sirileo Miss and Revolutionary Miss. She is the only leader in this race one would think and I think she has come back better than ever after a brilliant trial win leading into this first-up assignment. She is the only danger.
REGARDSMAREE ($12) was solid in a handy race at Flemington last start over 1400m and should be ready to peak now.
FRENCH EMPEROR ($9.50) gets weight relief and Jamie Kah jumps on board. Could surprise.
TIP: Keen on the favourite here. Best bet. 2U WIN #7 ST LAWRENCE @$2.
RACE 10: BENCHMARK 84 HANDICAP, 1200M
Interesting map here. NAJEM SUHAIL (4) draws well and will likely lead. DANCE TO DUBAI (2) loves the Valley and has early speed and will try and cross them from the widest gate. MAXIMILLIUS (3) should get a lovely run just behind them, whilst RUSSIAN RONI (7) and RED HOT NICC (5) have decisions to make on whether to push forward or try and settle midfield from awkward barriers.
MAXIMILLIUS ($5.50) was very good on resumption over this T/D when leading all the way to beat Recommendation and Sessions Road. His form as a 3YO indicates that he should be right up to this grade, finishing 0.3L off Elliptical and 2L off Jacquinot. He had three trials leading into that resuming run and he still peaked late over the last 50m so I think that run would have done him wonders fitness-wise. He generally improves second-up, he will get an economical run, and he likes the Valley. He is an easy bet.
SUPARAZI ($26) represents the value. He will be spotting them a start but I think he is an underrated horse and I get the feeling from watching his trials that he is going to have a career-best preparation this time in. He generally races well fresh with two seconds from two tries and I think his Valley record is better than it suggests on paper. I think he is ready to fire first-up and his best will be very competitive in this race. He is over the odds.
NAJEM SUHAIL ($4) was excellent last preparation behind the likes of Hypothetical and he then went on to win two from four with placings to On the Lead and Inundation. He was fantastic fresh down the straight a few weeks ago and he shouldn’t have many problems getting around the Valley. He needs to improve again here, but there is nothing to say he can’t second-up and rising to 1200m.
GRINGOTTS ($3.80) is a lay. I can’t believe he is the favourite. It wasn’t like he beat a whole lot/smashed the clock in his first preparation and his trials this time in have just been even. He draws terribly (10) and will either be wide or a mile back and I think he might need a mile this time in. I am not sold he is going to like the Valley either. He is under the odds in a big way.
TIP: Two bet play here. 0.7U WIN #3 MAXIMILLIUS @$5.50/0.3U WIN #8 SUPARAZI @$26.
STAKING PLAN:
RACE 1 #2 THE YEARS – 0.75U WIN @$4.80
RACE 3 #4 AMBASSADORIAL – 0.3U EACH WAY @$27
RACE 4 #2 VITRUVIUS – 0.3U EACH WAY @$21
RACE 6 #3 INHIBITIONS – 1U WIN @$3.80
RACE 8 #8 OMNI MAN – 1.75U WIN @$3.20/#10 HYPOTHETICAL – 0.5U WIN @$11
RACE 9 #7 ST LAWRENCE – 2U WIN @$2
RACE 10 #3 MAXIMILLIUS – 0.7U WIN @$5.50/#8 SUPARAZI – 0.3U WIN @$26
GAMBLE RESPONSIBLY. CHANCES ARE YOU ARE ABOUT TO LOSE. SET A DEPOSIT LIMIT.