Managed to snag Fangirl last weekend, but the rest of the card went by the wayside thanks to some heavy off-the-fence bias. I am keen to get stuck into a very open card of racing at Rosehill where hopefully we can find a bit of value.
Track Report: Currently Soft 5 but the weather looks clear going into race day so we should be in the good range. Rail is out six metres from the 1500m-Winning Post and out four metres for the remainder so the leaders should be slightly advantaged but as always monitor any bias on the day.
Race 1 – 1400M Tab Highway Hcp (C2)
I will be straight to the point here in this one, it is a highway, which means any of them could get up so I want to look for one at odds. Eight Of A Kind sticks out for sure. Tim Clark booked for the Dannielle Sieb camp and this is a trainer who wins a Highway just about every 3 weeks so she will have this horse prepped and ready to go for sure. Lightly raced, should find himself in the right part of the track to pounce and is currently at a nice price so I am happy to go each way.
Melody Again is constantly a well-fancied horse and is constantly coming up short in the end. Should find herself somewhere near the back of the pack but she will kick hard towards the end. This distance should suit her more with her run on style as well, watch out late.
Take The Kitty obviously a danger but should find himself shuffled all the way to the back of the pack with that draw on the inside. He will have to go around them all and I am unsure if he is that good.
Nickelback an interesting one here as he was above this grade in a few starts last prep and ran pretty competitively. Certainly a big market watch.
Selections: 13-9-5-3
Suggested Bet: Eight Of A Kind Each Way
Race 2 – 2000M Bankstown Sports (Bm78)
Too Much Caviar and Yukon are the two that will push forward and attempt to steal it by setting a thunderous pace and with the rail out I would not be shocked if that ends up being the case.
Too Much Caviar especially seems prime for a big run here. Bayliss should take him right to the front and prove very hard to run down, especially if the chasers switch off for a second. We have seen this happen numerous times, especially with Waterhouse and Bott runners.
However, it is Wineglass Bay for me. Yes, I have been on him every start and yes he just continues to constantly finish 2nd and has had plenty of chances but this is D-Day for him in my mind, if he loses I’ll have to jump off him for a while. He just got too far back last start and was only very narrowly beaten by a horse who carried 3 fewer kilos than him. He gets a weight swing on her now and should kick to the front for a win.
Travelling Kate is that horse that ran down Wineglass Bay last start and could potentially go 2 straight but will find it tougher with the weight swing.
Selections: 2-1-5-3
Suggested Bet: Wineglass Bay Win
Race 3 – 1500M Mounties Group (Bm78)
Marquess is well found by the market but for good reason. He looked fantastic when storming over them late in very quick fashion last start in the midweeks at Warwick Farm. Obviously, this will be a lot harder but he should find himself amongst the pack and burst clear going around that bend and win with a bit in hand if he repeats his efforts last start. He has come back looking phenomenal for the Cummings camp and could be one to watch going forward.
Green Shadows is another that has a huge chance here to grab a win, something he has been chasing all prep with 3-second placings to date so far. His last start especially jumps off the page considering he almost knocked off the promising Chorlton Lane. Watch late for his run.
Gracilistyla is another one that consistently finds hard luck. She seems to find the right part of the track every time but either finds herself flat-footed or in traffic come the finish. Her best can win this, but can she produce it?
Wategos rounds out selections thanks to his successful prep until now, but he has a heavyweight and a terrible record at this distance.
Selections: 8-6-3-1
Suggested Bet: Marquess Win
Race 4 – 1800M Midway (Bm72)
Elettrica for me in the midway here. I was on her in the last edition and boy she was unlucky just getting squeezed and bumped off balance late and tried to protest it as she had just quickened quite a bit before being taken out. The protest was thrown out but I am happy to stick with her because, with a clearer run to the line, she can be a serious danger.
La Vesuvius is the favourite after dominating the country and provincial scene and he deserves his jump to the metro level now, he just needs to be able to go on with it. I like the booking of Dylan Gibbons who is flying right now, I think he will give it every chance.
Monfelicity is the horse I was originally going to tip when I saw it in the nominations but the barrier draw was a killer. She is out in the carpark and will most likely find herself way too far back to figure, but a spot in the money wouldn’t shock me.
Casual Connection rounds out selections with the handy jump in distance.
Selections: 5-7-10-3
Suggested Bet: Elettrica
Race 5 – 1100M Cabra-Vale Diggers (Bm78)
Smashing Eagle for me. The form behind Mogo magic has been specked a few times and it worked for him in his last start when he gave them windburn down the Rosehill straight and he should get a similar set up here kicking late and getting over the top of them.
Hard To Say beat a few that line up here in his last start so he certainly gets a solid set up to win two on the trot. Tim Clark most likely takes him towards the front where I suspect you’ll need to be on the day to have the best chance and if he repeats his effort from last start I would be shocked to see him out of the finish.
Extravagant Star is the big market watch here. A bit of money has already come for her and if she gets to dictate the pace it would be no surprise that the punters who are betting on her are well rewarded with a win. JMac on, should bounce, go straight to the front and prove hard to run down.
Tristate is the last selection here and I can see why some other form analysts have him on top. He gets a better set-up here than last start behind a smart winner in Olentia and should find himself on the tail of the leaders so he can figure in the late stages for sure.
Selections: 7-9-4-3
Suggested Bet: Smashing Eagle Win
Race 6 – 1500M Campbelltown Catholic (Bm78)
One horse for me here, Call Di. Always bet on this horse, named for perhaps my biggest supporter in this endeavour my beautiful Aunty Di who we unfortunately laid to rest this past Monday. But I know she will be up there watching down and still supporting everything we do with The Mock Sports so I just hope it wins for her.
Selections: 5
Suggested Bet: Call Di Win
Race 7 – 1300M Cmnl Up And Coming Stks
I think the straight bat option here has to be Callabus, honestly. The price is well found but it seemed a good thing beaten when it found itself in a lot of traffic before bursting home when clear only late for a narrow loss to Kintyre. I think with a better draw and run he can definitely win here, especially with the weight drop and race fitness, he’ll be ready to peak here.
Les Vampires is probably the horse who can take advantage of the rail being out the most today if I am behind honest. There is not a lot of pace in this race and he will be straight to the front and go go go! He will have to be the one they run down.
Griff was solid without threatening in The Rosebud a few weeks ago. Only finished a couple of lengths off of them and closed off nicely. The jump up in distance and getting away from Tiz Invincible will certainly help.
Manwe another who will probably find himself near the front and hence he has to be in the exotics with this rail placement.
Selections: 3-11-10-5
Suggested Bet: Callabus Win (BEST BET)
Race 8 – 1100M San Domenico Stakes
Will have to be with Kandinsky Abstract here. Very lightly raced 3Yo for the Waller camp with only 1 start to date and that was at Canterbury where he absolutely blitzed them. In that field was Celestial legend who a couple weeks later went out and smashed a field of his own and looked special. Obviously, this is harder but the trials have looked like a nice tick-over for him, he looks the one to be on.
The Instructor is a deserved favourite considering his great run in The Rosebud without winning behind a smart one in Tiz Invincible. Should roll to the front and dictate the speed here and with his added race fixture he shouldn’t fade as badly in the late stages as he did a couple of weeks ago.
The same can be said for Introducing who had a similarly strong run in the feature race a couple of weeks ago. He will be up there near the front with the stablemate and they will prove to be a very hard pair to get past, wouldn’t be surprised if they, along with Kandinsky Abstract gap the field, much like they did with Tiz Invincible 2 weeks ago.
Barber was the early Golden Slipper favourite last year after he blitzed his way through his first few starts. He blundered a little at the end of the prep, but his trials have been sound and I expect a strong showing.
Selections: 9-4-5-2
Suggested Bet: Kandinsky Abstract Each Way
Race 9 – 1400M Dooleys (Bm100)
Usually, I’d be on Kalino here but one week back up, down in grade up in weight 5 kgs and up to a distance he doesn’t usually do his best work at is a strange one for me, but now I say that he probably smashes it in.
I really wanted to be on Inver Park. First up wasn’t too special but he closed off well and jumps up 300m now. JMac was on board first up which shows intent, he drops 6kg as well so he could be well placed here, however, surely he gets far too back with that draw but mind you if he wins here at $10 I will be very mad.
All that being said I think I might take a whack at the stumps with Mission Phoenix. Should want further than this and he will most likely be running on but the form behind Pericles could take him a long way here and I don’t see why he can’t find his way into the money.
Glint Of Silver came out of that Pareciles race as well and just like Mission Phoenix, I wouldn’t be shocked that the form takes him a long way as well.
Selections: 4-2-6-12
Suggested Bet: Mission Phoenix Each Way
Race 10 – 1200M Merrylands Rsl Club (Bm88)
I’ll go Diamond Dealer in the last, bottom weight should jump on the bunny and go right to the front and prove hard to run down I feel. Just got outrun by a very good horse in Olentia last start and I feel that form could take her a long way here.
Pioneer River should dictate the speed here and with the rail out that might just be all he needs on the day. The money keeps shortening and JMac and Maher/Eustace is usually a winning combination so a strong showing is most definitely expected.
Arts is a group-winning horse, so surely she is the one to be on right? Not when she is usually a stayer and he is running 1st at 1200m. She’ll be running on and kicking home quite hard but I feel like she won’t be able to get all the way over the top.
Razeta was running around in much stronger company during the Autumn time, so with Dylan Gibbons giving her every chance I can’t see why she doesn’t run well.
Selections: 12-8-11-6
Suggested Bet: Diamond Dealer Win
Top Selections For The Card
Race 1: Eight Of A Kind
Race 2: Wineglass Bay
Race 3: Marquess
Race 4: Eletrica
Race 5: Smashing Eagle
Race 6: Call Di
Race 7: Callabus (BEST BET)
Race 8: Kandinsky Abstract
Race 9: Mission Phoenix
Race 10: Diamond Dealer
Quaddie
Race 7: 3,5,10,11
Race 8: 2,4,5,9
Race 9: 2,4,6,12
Race 10: 1,3,6,8,11,12
$50 gets you 13%
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