Backstreet’s back alright!
That is right, I have returned from my humble 4-week trip overseas in one piece and boy have I missed The Mock community and providing my tips for all of my readers. I was especially keen to get back into it since the last time you saw me I managed to tip half of the card! Let’s keep that sort of form going into the Spring!
Track Report: The track will be as fair as fair can be with a rock-hard Good 4 expected with the potential to move into a Good 3 range by the end of the day. The rail is in the true position as well which means every horse will have a chance. However, I will admit, I tend to lean towards the horses who will be sitting just off the pace with this sort of set-up at Rosehill as usually, that tends to be the perfect place to be.
Race 1 – 1800M Tab Highway Plate (C3)
Burrandana comes in as the very short favourite and for a Highway I can’t possibly entertain his price, despite his strong chances. He should be putting in a strong effort, but rarely ever do I go below $2, especially not in Highways.
Think Spitfire could be a throw at the stumps here at double-figure odds. He is a horse that appreciates running the longer distances so the win first up at 1200 was strange, hence why the market had him at value odds that day as well. 1 run at this distance to date was a strong showing at Highway level which has me confident he can find his way into the money.
Seahaven draws the rails here and should find himself stalking the lead which I think is where you will need to be on the day so that helps. Got checked last start so don’t mind the sharp fade late in the race. Can bounce back.
Holstein is not a Highway horse, he’s been a strict QLD benchmark horse his whole career, but he has been in such poor form he’s come down to Sydney and dropped into the Highway grade. Lloyd’s claim will help, but that wide barrier could stop him from getting to the front without spending a lot of petrol. A win wouldn’t shock, but he must do it the hard way.
Selections: 3-9-2-1
Suggested Bet: Spitfire Each Way
Race 2 – 1100M Midway (Bm72)
Oxford Vision for me. The latest trial had him looking well despite not being asked for much behind Protagonist, who is head and shoulders above Midway grade. In the quinella most starts and should find himself in the right part of the track, I feel he is way over the odds.
Kibosh is an interesting horse. Didn’t race for the entirety of 2022, returned earlier this year to a bit of hype and produced very little other than a few spurts of talent that failed to produce a single win. Finds what would probably be his easiest field to date and is first up here. If she isn’t putting in a sound effort here she will have very few excuses.
Undivided is an interesting prospect here. It is not very often that a horse jumps straight to Midway grade off of a debut maiden win at midweek level. This young Michael Freedman gelding appears to have some ability, but this will be the measuring stick. Could blow them away or fall flat on his face.
Xpresso will have to work hard to find the front but if he finds himself there he can potentially steal a win at odds. Form behind Kalino reads well for sure.
Selections: 2-6-16-3
Suggested Bet: Oxford Vision Each Way
Race 3 – 2400M Schweppes (Bm78)
Aristonous has to be the one to bet on here. He has been fantastic to date so far in Australia with two wins and a 4th-placed run last start at Caulfield. I am willing to forgive that flat run, as I feel it could have potentially been jockey error, pressing the button far too late. Collett is back on board here and I expect a strong showing.
United Nations is one I am keeping a very close eye on as James McDonald goes aboard and he drops in class. As such he has to carry a tonne of weight, but sometimes class is all you need. Far from poor first up when he was just too far back to have any input, but the sectionals jump off the page so he will clearly enjoy this jump in distance.
So United is always there or thereabouts and I expect no different here for the Waterhouse and Bott gelding. He should jump clean, head straight to the front and grab the rails. He’ll be the one they will have to run down.
Kirkeby rounds out selections coming off of a decent win.
Selections: 5-2-4-3
Suggested Bet: Aristonous Win
Race 4 – 1400M Vale John Duggan (Bm72)
Struggling to see why Hollywood Hero is such high odds. He’ll be stalking the leaders wherever they go and try and run past them in the straight. He has only missed the trifecta once and I expect him to be up there again this weekend. Bjorn Baker is flying and can add another win to his record here.
Kangaroo Court is the favourite and the one they will have to run down. Tim Clark/Waterhouse and Bott is usually a money combo and it wouldn’t surprise anyone if they combined for another win here. Straight to the front, grab the rails and go go go will be the strategy. It is often hard to lead all the way at Rosehill, but if any horse can, it will be this one.
Pink Baroque certainly could have something to say in the late stages, especially if the leaders go a bit too fast up front. She will be sitting towards the rear for much of this race and with a patient enough steer she will be the big danger.
Nana’s Wish rounds out selections here with the rare combo of a Maher and Eustace horse teaming up with Zac Lloyd. Good to see the young gun getting the attention of the bigger stables other than Godolphin, which can prove a deadly combo as he already has a 33% place rate for the stable.
Selections: 1-3-8-10
Suggested Bet: Hollywood Hero Each Way
Race 5 – 1200M Elite Sand & Soil (Bm78)
Petulant is coming off a nice win here last start where she got the 1200M monkey off the back with a narrow victory over the firm favourite in this field, Waverider Buoy. I think with that edge, as well as a nice weight swing she can continue this run and get 2 on the trot. She does her best work at this track which has me confident she’ll be there or thereabouts here.
Lovero is another that is coming off of a win here, however, at the provincial level, so this will be much harder. Last time at the metro level came on a Wednesday where she went down very narrowly to Petulant, which could be strong form to go off if Petulant is to put in the strong run I believe she will.
Lady Brook is consistent enough to be finishing top 4 which commands her spot in the selections.
Selections: 3-2-9-5
Suggested Bet: Petulant Win
Race 6 – 1350M Jockey Celebration Day (Bm78)
Regal Pom for me here. He’s a horse that I have consistently backed in the past for some success and I think he can make me some money first up here. Drawn to do no work on the rails, should be right in the thick of things come the final stages.
King Of Naples is absolutely flying right now, coming off a 3rd and two straight 1st placed runs in his past 3 starts. He’s been jumping up in grade but holding his own as he goes along and he can go on with it here with yet another jump in grade. JMac on board and will be one of the key chances.
Soami is another horse that has been rising well through the grades and Zac Lloyd has really managed to get a major second wind out of this horse’s career. 2 straight wins at this track, one at 1400, one at 1300, now he splits the difference and attempts 1350. I can only imagine he will be running well.
Wategos yet another horse who comes off a Rosehill win. Very strong through the line indicates this rise in distance will suit.
Selections: 5-3-2-6
Suggested Bet: Regal Pom Win
Race 7 – 1200M Nswja Jockey Reunion (Bm78)
Legio Ten looms as a decent chance here to buck the potential trend of needing to be at the front of the pack. Will be towards the rear but with JMac aboard he will be given every chance no matter the potential bias. Running well this prep, as he is yet to miss the Trifecta. Form behind Renosu certainly reads well and if they go too fast up front, which is a huge chance given the number of horses who like to lead, he can run over them all.
Time To Boogie is the favourite and is in fine form. Smashed them last time out at Randwick by over 3 lengths. Gets a very similar draw here, King sticks, 6th barrier instead of 5th and stays at the 1200m distance. Should jump, move across and kick along and set a strong pace. Seems to have an engine where she’d be able to go all the way under strong pressure.
Brudnell is a horse that arguably should be 3/3 this prep. He started the prep off with a nice win and followed that up with 2 very narrow losses to better horses. Can measure up here and get back to winning ways, McLucas just needs to put him in the right spots, something she hasn’t been doing a lot of lately.
Pegasi is a bit of a wildcard here. He has been flying of late, albeit in Adelaide, but he is flying nonetheless and has been loving the tactics of trailing the leader on the rails and running past them in the straight. He will get that exact same set-up here, so don’t be shocked if he gets up at big odds.
Selections: 5-7-1-2
Suggested Bet: Legio Ten Win
Race 8 – 1200M G2 Missile Stakes
All over I Am Me here. How is she not the favourite? In my mind, she is Everest quality, much like this year’s Shades Of Rose perhaps. She dominated Autumn and was faultless up until a less-than-desirable run in the Oakleigh Plate. One bad run does not make a bad horse, so I am very keen to forgive her and back her in here. She should stalk the leaders and breeze past them in the straight.
Big Parade is on top in the market right now as he is set to run his first race in over a year and a half. It is also his first race for new trainer Joe Pride, which I think will be a massive boost for the horse. However, his 20+ length trial win looks way better on paper then it does in reality, as he was the only horse that was ridden right out as if it was a race, the rest of the field jogged as most do in a trial. He is a fake favourite in my mind and I think he finishes 2nd at best.
Wewillrock is a horse I have quite a bit of time for and I think it is strange that his almost at a $20 price. He will either get into a speed battle with Big Parade or take the sit right behind him, which will be the perfect spot to be. Perfect trifecta filler and even worth an each-way speck in my mind.
Golden Mile is another horse who is going under the radar here after a poor Autumn prep. He does his best work when fresh and gets back to a setup and file that will be much easier for him than the likes of the Doncaster and George Ryders he was running around in a few months ago. Include in all of your exotics.
Selections: 11-4-8-1
Suggested Bet: I Am Me Win and a 1,4,8,11 Boxed Trifecta
Race 9 – 1800M Petaluma Premier’s Cup Prelude
Fawkner Park on a silver platter please and thank you. I think he is the good thing of the card and if he does get beaten, I would be shocked if it wasn’t jut getting pipped on the line because this horse is class personified. I think he can be Annabel Neasham’s next Zaaki, yes, I think he is that good. He will sit towards the rear and kick hard down the outside of them and get the job done.
Mach Schnell, Bold Mac and Longvillers are the only other horses I think could potentially put in a serious challenge to the favourite.
Selections: 11-13-8-7
Suggested Bet: Fawkner Park Win (BEST BET)
Race 10 – 1500M Tab (Bm78)
Space Tracker seems to be one of the unluckiest horses going around right now, arguably should be 3/3 but just keeps running into 1 or 2 better. He’ll be up on the speed and kick late and I think he will be the one they will have to run down come the final stages.
Gracilistyla is another horse that has been plagued with bad luck for much of his career, or is he just plain bad? The market always seems to think he is half decent and with JMac booked clearly he thinks he is as well, however, I am not super convinced. Like always, he will have every chance and his best is probably good enough to win this but it is up to him to rock up on the day.
Amor Victorious has drawn the rails and will be up on the pace with Space Tracker and could potentially get stuck in a speed battle with him. If Kangaroo Court and Big Parade are able to win earlier in the day then he will be looking bulletproof as those are his form lines of late through various trials and starts. Genuine winning chance.
Kingsheir has raced well in classes much better than this, his best can measure up, but I feel the wide barrier could do him in.
Selections: 2-6-14-1
Suggested Bet: Space Tracker Win
Top Selections For The Card
Race 1: Spitfire
Race 2: Oxford Vision
Race 3: Aristonous
Race 4: Hollywood Hero
Race 5: Petulant
Race 6: Regal Pom
Race 7: Legio Ten
Race 8: I Am Me
Race 9: Fakwner Park (BEST BET)
Race 10: Space Tracker
Quaddie
Race 7:1,2,3,5,7
Race 8:1,4,8,11
Race 9:11
Race 10:1,2,6,14
$50 gets you 62%
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