Well, the 2023 AFL season comes down to this. The Collingwood Football club and the Brisbane Lions face off in the AFL Grand Final. These two teams are the most deserving Grand Finalists we have seen as a duo for the best part of a decade. Clearly the best two teams all season get to battle it out to see which team comes out on top. Led by Darcy Moore and Craig Macrae, the Magpies have been terrific all season and have played a brilliant brand of football which culminated in eighteen wins. The Lions, led by dual Brownlow Medallist Lachie Neale and Chris Fagan, have not lost a game at home all season and will try and overcome their MCG hoodoo on Saturday. We will analyse the key match ups, where both teams can win the game, and predict the winner.
THE KEY MATCH UPS:
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JOE DANIHER VS DARCY MOORE
The Magpies captain has been terrific this season and has led from the front throughout but Joe Daniher has also had a very good season and a good finals campaign kicking seven goals and gathering thirty disposals in the two games the Lions have played. Moore is integral to both the Pies defensively setting up and restricting score but also on the counter and in transition where he ranks third for total intercepts across the competition and sixteenth in rebound 50s. Both men have more than one job. For Daniher, it is being able to kick goals and mark the ball like he usually does, but when playing against Darcy Moore you must get your positioning right and you cannot let him out mark you in the air. If he does, the Pies will be able to chain up possession and get some easy ball movement into their forward fifty. For Moore, the job is to keep Daniher relatively quiet on the scoreboard but to also not allow him to gain possessions. Daniher has been excellent at gathering the ball up the ground and using his foot skills going forward this season and if Moore allows that to happen the Magpie defence could be in for a long afternoon.
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JOSH DUNKLEY VS JORDAN DE GOEY
I think the Lions will want Lachie Neale to have more freedom than Dunkley so therefore he will get the job on Jordan De Goey who was sensational in the Preliminary Final against the Giants. Dunkley’s job is arguably the harder one. Not only is he expected to win clearance and find contested footy himself but he is also expected to restrict a player who just had thirty-four disposals and thirteen clearances against the in-form team of the competition. The equation for De Goey is simple. Repeat last week. It is easier said than done but the Magpies strengths don’t belong around clearance and contested ball whereas the Lions does. If De Goey can explode away from clearance and getting it going the Magpies way throughout the game it might be enough to get them over the line, but if Dunkley can put the clamps on De Goey like he did to Carlton Captain Patrick Cripps in the Preliminary Final, the question must be asked of how the Pies are going to win it at the source.
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THE WINGERS
The MCG is a ground that shows the importance of the wing position and these two teams have terrific ones. Josh Daicos and Steele Sidebottom have had brilliant seasons for the Magpies with the former being selected in the All-Australian team, averaging twenty-five disposals per game and being one of the best kicks in the competition. For the Lions, it is Hugh McCluggage who is arguably one of their most important players. His record away from the Gabba in recent years has been sub-par and it has probably went a long way to that dismal record outside of Brisbane. McCluggage has recorded eight 25+ disposal games this season and the Lions have won seven of them. He ranks second in goal assists across the competition this season which goes to show his importance. If he and his mate Dayne Zorko win the battle on the wing, the Lions will have some very easy ball going inside fifty, as will the Magpies if Daicos and Sidebottom are allowed time and space with the ball.
THE LESSER LIKES?
In every grand final there is a lesser like (either underrated or relatively unknown) player who lifts to the occasion more than some of the superstars. Last year it was Brad Close, in 2021 it was Christian Salem, and in 2020 it was Jayden Short. We have picked one out from each team that we think will rise to the occasion.
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CONOR MCKENNA
The Irishman has been tremendous in the back half of the season and he fits the mould for half backs who generally lift on Grand Final day (think Houli, Fox, Short). In his last two games against the Magpies he has played well and this does have the potential to backfire. He does tend to turn the ball over but if he can minimise those mistakes on the big stage and use his run out of defence to worry the Magpies with speed and his long kicking, he might be the lesser like who drags the Lions over the line. He is $81 for the Norm Smith and I think that is over the odds considering he had twenty-six disposals against the Magpies in round 23.
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JEREMY HOWE
Since coming back from his injury he has been terrific. He was influential against Brisbane when playing as a third tall forward in round 23 but since moving back to the back six he has been elite. I thought he was the second best player for the Magpies in the Preliminary Final when he repelled multiple Giants forward thrusts in the second half. He took a game high ten marks and it was him and Isaac Quaynor who are the reason that the Magpies are playing this week. He is likely to get the job on Cameron Rayner and should he out mark him and be the prime interceptor in the game, it will go a long way to the Magpies winning.
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WHERE COLLINGWOOD CAN WIN:
Much like the Tigers in their golden era the Magpies simply must bring the heat and pressure around the contest and ball carrier as it is clearly their strength compared to the rest of the competition. If there is a weakness with the Lions, it is the fact that in the recent past they haven’t handled the big moments. Carlton brought ridiculously good pressure in the first quarter in the Preliminary Final and it was Brisbane’s undoing with them trailing by five goals early in the game. Collingwood bring more pressure than the Blues do when they are at their best and if they can pressure the likes of McKenna, Starcevich, and Andrews into making silly mistakes, it could take the winds right out of the Lions sails.
WHERE BRISBANE CAN WIN:
The contested ball and clearance battle is where the Lions can get on top of the Pies. Collingwood done a brilliant job in round 23 to even up this area of the game but earlier in the season in round four it was the difference with Brisbane winning the clearance count by nine with ruckman Oscar McInerney gathering eleven clearances to go along with seven each from both Lachie Neale and Josh Dunkley. Jordan De Goey is arguably the Magpies best clearance midfielder and if the Lions can quell his influence, I think it will be a long afternoon for the Magpies.
OVERVIEW:
It looks like a very even contest on paper. I think Brisbane are in better form and have been for a while now, but the MCG factor cannot be understated and that is clearly advantage Collingwood. It will be a game where a few key match ups will decide it and it will be a matter of who rises to the occasion more when the big moments arrive and the game is up for grabs. Jordan De Goey, Scott Pendlebury, and Brody Mihocek might hold the key for the Pies and for the Lions the likes of Dunkley, Daniher, and McInerney may decide whether the Premiership Cup is going to Queensland.
TIP: Collingwood by eight points
NORM SMITH: Scott Pendlebury/Hugh McCluggage
FIRST GOAL: Cameron Rayner/Jamie Elliot