Well, after 25 long weeks September is upon us. The weather might not tell you that the Spring has officially hit in Melbourne but this city is buzzing with excitement again for one thing – footy. As Mike Brady says, there’s a lot of things around in this great city, but when you line them up together, the footy wins hands down. Now to the actual football. The oldest club in Australia in Melbourne try to win their second AFL Premiership in four years and they kick off the weekend on Thursday Night against the table toppers Collingwood who are aiming for their sixteenth Premiership and to equal their great rivals in Carlton and Essendon. Carlton play finals for the first time in a decade after finishing fifth and play last years Grand Finalists in Sydney who stormed home late to finish eighth. The Blues have the chance to get number seventeen before the Bombers and break a 28 year Premiership drought. The Power travel to Brisbane to play the Lions in the second Qualifying final, and St Kilda host GWS at the MCG after the Giants won eight of their last nine to play finals. We will do a deep dive into every game and analyse where every team can win and lose the game, the players who need to perform, and the stats that matter.
COLLINGWOOD VS MELBOURNE – THURSDAY 7.20PM – MCG
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The Magpies and the Demons face off in the first Qualifying final. Collingwood finished a game clear on top of the ladder at the end of the home and away season but did lose three of their last five games on the run home. Melbourne finished third and were in the top four essentially all season. They won seven of their final eight games and it does seem like they are peaking at the right time of the year mixing their form early in the season. For the Magpies, it is looking likely that Oleg Markov, Billy Frampton, and Jack Ginnivan will make way for Darcy Moore, Nathan Murphy, and Beau McCreery in what are huge additions to this Collingwood outfit. Jake Melksham will miss for the Demons with one of Tom McDonald or Joel Smith looking likely to come in.
WHERE COLLINGWOOD CAN WIN:
The Magpies are the best defensive team in the competition and they get back their two key defenders in Darcy Moore and Nathan Murphy for this final whilst the Demons miss both Harrison Petty and Jake Melksham who have been arguably their best forwards in the back half of the season. The match ups will be all important in the back six. Collingwood have the opportunity to play Nathan Murphy on Jacob Van Rooyen and if he can keep him quiet throughout the game, the likes of Darcy Moore could be able to intercept at will and thwart most of the Demons forward forays. If the likes of Kysaiah Pickett and Bayley Fritsch don’t combine for at least six or seven goals, I don’t think the Demons will kick a winning score.
The other area Collingwood need to improve in is around the clearance. The Demons have three of the best clearance and contested ball midfielders in the competition in Jack Viney, Clayton Oliver, and Christian Petracca. The three of them average around thirty disposals a game over the last three years against the Pies and on Queens Birthday it was Viney’s 32 disposals and nine clearances that dragged the Demons over the line. Without Nick Daicos the likes of Tom Mitchell, Jordan De Goey, Taylor Adams, and Scott Pendlebury are going to have to lift in order for the Pies to get enough ball into their own inside fifty.
WHERE MELBOURNE CAN WIN:
Much like the Magpies defence, the Demons back six is going to be the difference between them winning and losing this game. The Demons have two of the best defenders in the competition in Steven May and Jake Lever and in the last few games between these teams they have completely shut out the likes of Brody Mihocek, Mason Cox, and whichever other key forward the Pies have played whilst finding the ball themselves. With the addition of Judd McVee and the improvement of Trent Rivers, Melbourne have a complete backline who can both defend well 1v1 but also intercept and create when moving the ball quickly outside of the defensive fifty. The worry will be the Magpies small forwards for the Demons. Jamie Elliot didn’t play on Queens Birthday yet has kicked seven goals in his last two encounters against Melbourne and the likes of Bobby Hill and Beau McCreery will also be suited by wet conditions. If Melbourne can lock down the smaller Collingwood forwards it will go a long way to them winning.
The Demons are a team that prides itself on contested ball and clearance dominance and like I spoke about earlier, the likes of Viney, Oliver, and Petracca don’t only win clearances but they win them with ease which puts plenty of pressure on the oppositions back six. If they can gain ascendancy around the contest again throughout this game the likes of Darcy Moore and Isaac Quaynor can be found out in one-on-one contests. Dominate around the ball, get it moving their way, and let the small forwards go to work on a wet night. That is the avenue to victory for the Demons.
VERDICT: I think it will be a low scoring arm wrestle this one. Melbourne by four points in a thriller.
CARLTON VS SYDNEY – FRIDAY 7.50PM – MCG
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Talk about two in-form teams. Both the Blues and Swans seasons looked dead and buried at about round twelve but the Blues have won nine of their past ten to finish fifth whilst the Swans have won seven of their last nine to scrape into September. Sam Docherty, Patrick Cripps, and Jesse Motlop all look likely to return against the Swans which leaves some selection dilemmas for Michael Voss. Corey Durdin is almost certain to be dropped which means two others will be dropped. Lachie Fogarty and Paddy Dow could be the luckless two. For the Swans, Tom Papley is a massive inclusion and one of Dylan Stephens or Sam Wicks will make way. It will most likely be a wet and wild affair!
WHERE CARLTON CAN WIN:
Carlton have a brilliant clearance and contested ball midfield who ranks as the third best in the competition behind only Brisbane and the Bulldogs and they get their inspirational captain back after missing the round 24 game against the Giants. The Swans on the other hand rank second last for clearances in the competition. When they lost the clearance battle in the last eight games of the season, they lost them by an average of nine which is just way too much. The last time these two faced off the Swans evened up the clearance count and the likes of Patrick Cripps, Matt Kennedy, and Adam Cerra combined for just fifty-three disposals for the match. If the Blues inside midfielders such as Cripps, Hewett, Cerra, and Dow/Kennedy can get on top, it is hard to see the Swans containing the Blues forward fifty talent.
The other area Carlton can beat Sydney in is through their sheer firepower up forward. Charlie Curnow has won back-to-back Coleman Medals and kicked seventy-eight goals this season, whilst former Coleman Medallist Harry McKay plays second fiddle and is very capable of having a big night out. Curnow and McKay didn’t impact the game the last time these two teams played but that was down to inaccuracy. They still combined for eight scoring shots on the night. If they can kick straight and the ball finds an easy way into the forward fifty the twin towers of Princess Park should be able to get the job done and send the Blues into a semi-final, potentially against the Magpies.
WHERE SYDNEY CAN WIN:
The Swans need to essentially replicate what they did to Carlton in round eleven when they kept them to 51 points (admittedly the Blues kicked 6.15 that night). The likes of James Rowbottom, Luke Parker, Chad Warner, and Errol Gulden simply must halve the contest throughout the middle of the ground. When Carlton lose either the Clearance or contested ball stat, they struggle to chain up many good attacking plays. Their scoring comes off the back of their contest work and if Sydney can even that part of the ground up, they are more than capable in nearly every other area of the game to beat the Blues.
The other area where the Swans are always dangerous is their small and medium sized forwards. The likes of Isaac Heeney, Tom Papley, and Will Hayward can turn it on at any given moment and essentially take the game away from you. The Blues small and medium sized defenders have been good this season but Papley looms as the danger man. Adam Saad and Nic Newman can’t really go with him in the air and the likes of Kemp and McGovern can’t match him on the ground. I think he needs to kick about five for the Swans to win.
VERDICT: I think the Blues will win this with ease. Carlton by 30+ and the finals drought will finally be over. Lygon Street will be jumping!
ST KILDA VS GWS GIANTS – SATURDAY 3.20PM – MCG
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These two teams were predicted to be closer to eighteenth than sixth and seventh at the start of the season and both teams should be proud of the improvement they have made. The Saints set their season up winning seven of their first ten whilst the Giants won nine of their last eleven to make the eight. Josh Battle and Max King look likely to return for the Saints and Seb Ross will do a last minute fitness test to see whether he returns. Jack Hayes will miss and one other Saint is likely to be unlucky. Finn Callaghan and Sam Taylor will undergo fitness tests later in the week to see whether they get up, whilst Toby Bedford will front the appeals board trying to overturn a one match suspension.
WHERE BOTH TEAMS CAN WIN:
The Saints under Ross Lyon are the best defensive team in the competition and they need to stay true to their game plan which is restricting opposition teams from scoring. In the last month of the season the Saints conceded an average of just 64 points which is clearly the best in the league. The Giants have averaged 109 points over the last month of the season so it is going to be a battle of two completely different styles of football. Both teams like to control the football and they both are similar in the way they move the ball. They both love springboarding and counter attacking out of defence by both hand and foot. This will be one of the main areas where the game is won and lost. Which team can intercept the ball and then which teams rebounding defenders can have the most influence. For the Saints, Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera, Jack Sinclair, and Mason Wood have been terrific all season and for the Giants the likes of Lachie Whitfield, Lachie Ash, and Harrison Himmelberg have been terrific in the back half of the season.
The other area the game will be won and lost in is through the forward halves for both teams. Both teams have a good main focal point (Max King for the Saints and Jesse Hogan for the Giants) but their small forwards are the ones who generally do the damage. Toby Greene has kicked sixty goals this season and is arguably the best small forward in the competition and the likes of Brent Daniels and Toby Bedford are important to the way they play. For the Saints, the likes of Jack Higgins (35 goals) and Daniel Butler (33 goals) have been brilliant for the Saints. Whichever small forward group can apply pressure and hit the scoreboard better probably wins this game.
VERDICT: It will be a tussle this one. I am tipping the Giants by under two goals.
BRISBANE VS PORT ADELAIDE – SATURDAY 7.20PM – GABBA
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These two teams have been the second and third best team for the majority of the season and give themselves a chance to go straight through to a Preliminary final on Saturday night. Brisbane won nine of their last eleven on the run home to finish second whilst the Power stumbled their way to finals losing four of their last six games. Trent McKenzie will return for the Power to boost their defensive stocks and Todd Marshall will return to boost their forward stocks, whilst Lincoln McArthy will return for the Lions. These teams played each other all the way back in round one where the Power walked away with a nine goal win at the Adelaide Oval.
WHERE BRISBANE CAN WIN:
Port Adelaide’s biggest weakness is their defence and they face the best offensive team in the competition at home. Joe Daniher has kicked 51 goals this season and is one of the best key forwards in the competition. Eric Hipwood has kicked 39 goals and has had some brilliant games this season. The likes of Allir Allir and Trent McKenzie will be giving away plenty of both strength and height and we haven’t even covered the small forwards. Charlie Cameron kicked 53 goals this season and is probably the second best small forward in the competion. Port Adelaide simply don’t have a match up for him. Add in the likes of Zac Bailey (26 goals) and Cameron Rayner (20 goals) and the Lions attack, at least on paper, look like being too strong for the Port Adelaide defence.
WHERE PORT ADELAIDE CAN WIN:
The young midfield triplet of Zak Butters, Connor Rozee, and Jason Horne-Francis must be at their very best in order for the Power to win. They face the best clearance team in the competition and if they don’t halve the contest and clearance game, they simply don’t stand a chance of winning. Lachie Neale has a brilliant record against the Power and Willem Drew will go to him and simply must get the job done and at least contain his influence on the game. Port Adelaide have a better mix of clearance winning players (Wines, Butters, Horne-Francis, Drew, and Rozee all averaging over 3.5 a game) which they can use to their advantage if they can contain one of Neale or Josh Dunkley who both average over five. If they can halve the midfield battle their forward line has shown throughout the year that they can kick big scores, evident by them ranking third for points per game this season. They must halve the midfield battle. It is time for these youngsters to lift in September and show they are the real deal.
VERDICT: I think the Lions will run away with this one. Brisbane by 30+ and they will have one foot inside the MCG on Grand Final day.