We head back to Caulfield after a brilliant day at Flemington last week where we smashed the bookies. The rail is out 6m and although it is hard to predict the track, Caufield has played very fairly with the better lanes being the outside ones in the straight in previous weeks which generally makes for the best racing. The headline of the program is the Underwood Stakes at G1 level over 1800m where Alligator Blood backs up from last week as the $3.30 favourite. There is a host of other races that have ramifications for the remainder of the Spring which include the Naturalism Stakes where the winner is ballot exempt from the Caulfield Cup and the Caulfield Guineas Prelude where we get a clearer picture of who will start favourite in the big one. Let’s get into it!
RACE 1: BENCHMARK 70 HANDICAP, 1600M
I don’t think they will go quick in the opener. GIRELLO (9), SHARPER (7), and SACRED KIWI (11) will probably roll forward but none of them have excellent early speed. DELIGHTFUL JOURNEY (8) and POLANCO (2) will settle just behind them and the rest of the field will settle worse than midfield. SHOCK ‘EM OVA (3) has no early speed and is likely to get a mile back which is a bad map for the favourite.
SHARPER ($26) seems over the odds here. He had things go his way first-up when winning at Pakenham but I thought the second-up run was full of merit. The winner there is a very talented customer and he finished essentially equal second after jumping slowly. Last start at Sandown he had to do a ton of work to get across and I think that took its toll late with him finishing 3L away in a better race than this. He did basically everything wrong in that race so I think to only finish 3L away was a good effort. He draws wide again here (11) but there is no early speed involved in the race so he should be able to cross and lead/sit OSL on a slow speed. Jye McNiel has had the one ride on this bloke and it was for a second behind Gundec. $26 seems a big price in a race like this.
SHOCK ‘EM OVA ($2.20) is a winning chance but the current odds are poison. He might be the best talent in the race but I think he is a pure stayer now after a few preparations and the mile might be a touch short for him. He didn’t have luck first-up over the 1400m but that was a low rating race. He can win, but he is probably a lay opportunity at the current quote.
BIG BREW ($12) was excellent at this track over 1400m last start when clocking the fastest final 200m of the race behind First Mate. His run three-back when fifth against Vitruvius would also see him competitive here and he should get a nice run.
SACRED KIWI ($15) is in career best form, will sit on the speed, and gets Linda Meech. Some boxes are ticked there.
TIP: Playing the value here. 0.3U EACH WAY #7 SHARPER @$26/$5.50.
RACE 2: BENCHMARK 78 HANDICAP, 2000M
There doesn’t look to be much early speed engaged here. CHANDON BURJ (9) gets the blinkers on for the first time and should roll forward. FIRST IMMORTAL (2) and IRISH FLAME (5) will want to use their low barriers to settle handy and WAHINE TOA (8) will probably sit just behind the leaders and should get a very economical run with any luck. The rest of the field don’t usually settle anywhere but midfield or worse. There is every chance this will be a sprint home.
FIRST IMMORTAL ($2.70) is a deserved favourite and looks hard to beat. The Kavanagh Gelding has won four of his last six and in those two defeats he has had genuine excuses when trapped 3WNC at Flemington over 2000m and then last start at the Valley over a mile when he was held up around the bend. That last start race was a big step up in grade going from 3YO races to Benchmark 90 level and he showed that he could potentially be a Cups horse based off that run. He was ten weeks between runs there and he now gets to a bigger track, is only two weeks between runs, and steps out to the 2000m. He draws perfectly (1) to get a cosy run and with any luck he probably wins. The only downside is the weight (63kgs) but I think ability/Hugh Bowman taking the ride should offset that.
SPEYCASTER ($11) seems like the main danger and is the saver bet. The European import showed plenty of ability before coming to Australia and his two runs here have been full of merit. He was passed fit at the gate fresh and worked home nicely over a mile and he then stepped up to 1800m at Sandown last start and was clearly the best of the chasers in a leader dominated race when they went incredibly slow up front. He gets in carrying just the 53.5kgs, gets Michael Dee who is in good form, and the 2000m and Caulfield should be ticks. He is over the odds at the current quote.
CHANDON BURJ ($9) was solid behind a good horse in Frigid and gets the blinkers on for the first time. He should therefore sit on the speed in a slowly run race.
WAHINE TOA ($11) is a consistent performer who can run up to his usual standard again. That can be a winnable level if a few of these have an off day.
TIP: Happy to bet here. 1.5U WIN #2 FIRST IMMORTAL @$2.70/0.5U WIN #14 SPEYCASTER @$11.
RACE 3: MARES PLATE, 1200M
They will go at an even tempo here. RED CARD (1) and THUNDER BEAUTY (11) will kick up from low draws and lead/sit on the speed. SERADESS (9) will cross and sit handy from the wide gate (8) and the likes of LA DANSEUSE ROUGE (3) and WALTZ ON BY (2) won’t be far behind them. The rest of the field will watch it all unfold.
RED CARD ($1.70) has superior ratings compared to the rest of this field and she returned in brilliant order when beating Smashing Eagle at Rosehill by a length. She is undefeated second-up from two attempts and she gets all the favours here. She faces an only even field of Mares, she draws perfectly (4) to either lead or sit on the leaders back, and she definitely has the most upside to improve on already race best figures. She gets in well under the set weights and she will be hard to beat.
BELLE ET RICHE ($10) comes back to 1200m after disappointing last start at 1400m at this track. She drops 3kgs from that run and if they overdo it in front she maps and rates as the best chance to run over them late. She generally peaks third-up and could improve again here.
SERADESS ($6) failed in the McEwen Stakes first-up over 1000m but that was against a proper G1 field with Imperatriz and Giga Kick running the top two. She improves second-up but doesn’t love Caulfield. I can understand why some like her.
LA DANSEUSE ROUGE ($13) will get a nice run in transit and was good fresh in South Australia. She is a consistent type who will make her presence known again.
TIP: #1 Red Card should win but I need her in the black to be betting.
RACE 4: BENCHMARK 84 HANDICAP, 1400M
I think they will crawl here and there looks to be no speed on up front. NUNTHORPE (4) will settle on the speed and Kah may be given the opportunity to lead from the inside peg. NO SECRET (7) can settle closer from an inside draw and the likes of TAJNEED (5) and OUR RED MORNING (8) should aim to settle just behind the leading bunch. The rest of the field will settle back and try and run on.
NUNTHORPE ($4.80) is the bet. I think some may be sucked in to backing Yellow Sam after a fast finishing second to this mare last start but I think the race will be run in a similar fashion which is again advantage Nunthorpe. The weight swing towards Yellow Sam is a legitimate concern but you can’t help but think our mare has more improvement to come third-up than it does fourth-up. Jamie Kah is three from four on this mare and strikes at 29% when riding for Moody which is a big tick in this girls favour and she also struck at 21% overall at Caulfield last season. I think she will be able to dictate the race and then this mares turn of speed to be able to outsprint them again.
OUR RED MORNING ($3) is the one with unlimited upside after winning her last three in utterly dominant fashion. Her win over this T/D two-back was tremendous with her showing sustained speed and she was seven weeks between runs when she beat Fiasco Tess at Sandown carrying 59.5kgs. She should improve off that run and I think she maps to get an economical run. This is arguably her hardest test and I feel like she should be a bit bigger in the market, but she could be very good. She frightens me.
YELLOW SAM ($5) gets the weight swing on Nunthorpe which is a genuine factor but I just question the map and race shape and whether she can turn the tables on her. She has plenty of talent though and if things fall into place for her, she can be winning.
SHE’S A CON ($10) has plenty of ability but I think she might have some bigger targets in mind so might not be completely ready to go fresh. She probably appreciates softer ground than what she will be faced with here as well.
TIP: I like the proven quantity here. 0.75U WIN #4 NUNTHORPE @$4.80.
RACE 5: JIM MOLONEY STAKES, LISTED RACE, 1400M
There doesn’t look to be a stack of speed engaged here. OZ EMPRESS (9) looks the likely leader and the likes of POIFECT (15) and ZOUKRETTE (4) won’t be far away from them. MIRACLE OF LOVE (6), TREASURWAY (1), CHILL THE KRUG (7) won’t be far away from the leading bunch and the rest are likely to get back and try and run on.
TREASURWAY ($17) represents good value at the current quote. She just hasn’t had much luck in her career to date and that is bound to change soon. Her third behind Shesallshenanigans from last preparation reads well now and she was terrific when coming from last in the G3 Breeder’s Stakes in South Australia. She drifted late on resumption in the Atlantic Jewel Stakes at the Valley and had absolutely no luck over the last 400m when being held up for the entire time. That seems like one of the better 3YO form lines around the country and the drift on resumption points to her improving fitness wise. She draws to do no work from the gate (3) and if the luck comes, she should be running top three at a minimum.
MIRACLE OF LOVE ($3.60) is probably a deserved favourite but she should be closer to $5. She was terrific when going up to Queensland when winning a 1350m Handicap in quick time before running second in the G1 JJ Atkins behind a very talented type in King Colorado. She has trialled okay leading into this and even though her best trip is going to be at 2000m+, she has a good pattern and some spring in those young legs. She doesn’t want them to go too slow though as her turn of foot isn’t as good as some others in the field.
POIFECT ($6) was an arrogant winner on resumption under hands and heels in quick closing splits and she has trialled well leading into this run on resumption. She draws tricky and 1400m fresh in just her second start are concerns, but she should be able to run well. Slight unders.
ZOUKERETTE ($8) closed off nicely for longer over 1200m at the Valley and she should be open to plenty of improvement here. She can settle closer from the inside peg (1) and is a winning chance.
TIP: It is an open race but Treasurway should be half her quote at least. 0.5U EACH WAY #1 TREASURWAY @$17.
RACE 6: TESTA ROSSA STAKES, LISTED RACE, 1400M
They will run along at a quick tempo in this one. BUFFALO RIVER (9) only knows one way and that is to go fast and lead. HERE TO SHOCK (8) will push over and likely sits OSL. BANDERSNATCH (1), CORNER POCKET (5) and SAVANNAH CLOUD (6) also generally like to sit near the speed. The rest of the field will settle back and appreciate the genuine tempo.
AMENABLE ($2.20) looks like the most bullet proof favourite on the program. He was impressive fresh a this T/D when beating Devoted and Carini (both subsequent winners) and he was luckless in the G1 Memsie Stakes when he was held up at a crucial time to finish 2.3L off Mr Brightside. He clocked the fastest last 200m of the meeting once he got out in a race that was hard for back markers to make ground which adds more merit to his performance. His third-up efforts are better than what they read and he drops 1.5kgs from running in a G1 back to a Listed race. Blinkers go on, and he should be winning.
HERE TO SHOCK ($5) is the main danger. He was okay down the straight on resumption in a fast run race and he improved a heap at this T/D last start when finishing 0.75L off Devoted and beating home Kalino (subsequent Flemington winner). That form obviously ties in nicely with the favourites, he won’t have to do as much work to cross this time, and he is three from four third-up which inspires confidence. He has also beaten Savannah Cloud twice when third-up so you would think he has it covered. He has shown he can keep sprinting off a strong tempo (6L faster than standard to the 800m last start) and a similar race shape will occur here.
SAVANNAH CLOUD ($18) was good fresh when beating a decent field around this circuit over 1200m before closing off well last start in an even race at the Valley. He gets 1400m now which is ideal and gets back to Caulfield which is another tick. He is slightly over the odds.
BANDERSNATCH ($7) has had some excuses this preparation but does need to improve off what he is doing. He was solid in the G1 Memsie Stakes but also needs to lift to be beating the favourite. He has pattern on side and potentially the track bias if it is up and in?
TIP: If they can run on Amenable probably just wins. 2U WIN #10 AMENABLE @$2.20.
RACE 7: CAULFIELD GUINEAS PRELUDE, GROUP THREE, 1400M
They will go quick here in the Prelude. ROCK EMPIRE (13) and PRINZERRO (7) will use good draws to go forward and probably sit 1-2 early. STEPARTY (3) will need to cross and does draw sticky. VEIGHT (2) will sit just behind the speed and maps to get a dream run, as does SOME PEOPLE CALLME (9) who might need further. The rest of the field will watch it all unfold.
VEIGHT ($4) gets all the favours here and all he should need is a split at the top of the straight to be winning. He was dominant in his first preparation winning two from three which included a 6L maiden win and a 2L G2 win at Flemington. He then went up to Sydney and just couldn’t handle the soft ground. He was tipped out after that and returned in brilliant order when easily accounting for Legacies and Little Brose in the McNiel Stakes at this track over 1200m. The race rated well and he peaked late which he was entitled to do first-up. He should improve second-up and getting out to 1400m and there is no knock on the favourite but this bloke just maps better and might have a better turn of foot. Damian Lane going off the only knock. Dry ground is also advantage this Gelding over the favourite.
STEPARTY ($2.80) is full of ability but I feel like the price differential is way too big. He is undefeated from four starts and has been dominant at Flemington before resuming at the Valley over 1200m in the McKenzie Stakes and winning with relative ease. He did get all the favours there and he won’t have that occur here. He draws sticky (8) considering there is pace inside of him and even though he will improve, others will as well. He could easily blow them away but there are a few knocks against him.
SCENTIFY ($8) is the saver and is over the odds. He was brilliant on resumption over 1200m when coming from last off a slow speed to beat Prinzerro at the Valley and he stepped up in grade and was an excellent second to the favourite here in Steparty when settling back and reeling off good closing splits. He ran the second fastest last 200m of the meeting there and there is an argument to suggest that 1400m at a bigger track will be right up his alley. If he handles Caulfield, he will be steaming home late and I think he has the most lethal turn of foot in the race. He could be a short quote in the Guineas if they overdo it in front here.
ROCK EMPIRE ($18) brings in a different form line and was a dominant maiden winner in Sydney in slick time. He will lead again here and the Jordan Childs/Gai Waterhouse combination is a good one to follow. He can improve.
TIP: Backing two here. 1U WIN #2 VEIGHT @$4/0.5U WIN #6 SCENTIFY @$8.
RACE 8: NATURALISM STAKES, GROUP THREE, 2000M
There looks to be little to no speed engaged here. GOLDMAN (5) and FUTURE HISTORY (16) will push across from wide barriers to settle forward and BEAR STORY (10) probably follows them. Outside of them it is anyone’s guess. THE SUMMIT (14) has the option to settle in the first few from a low draw. FLOATING ARTIST (3) may also elect to push forward. They won’t run along quickly and it will probably be muddling.
BEAR STORY ($20) is worth a bet at that quote. He didn’t fire fresh but that is par for the course with him and his second-up run last start was terrific. He was exposed and 4WNC for about 1200m of the race over this distance at the Valley and I thought he did a terrific job to finish under 2L away from Young Werther who had a dream run. His best ratings are all third-up in Europe and he gets in here with 55kgs compared to the 59.5kgs he was carrying last start. If he has bounced through that well, I get the feeling Clinton McDonald has got him to somewhere near his best which is good enough to win this. Just needs a positive ride from McDougall from the awkward gate (12).
FLOATING ARTIST ($4) looks slightly under the odds but he is a consistent horse now. He worked home well fresh behind Young Werther at Flemington over 2000m and then was brilliant second-up when sustaining a long run to beat Flash Flood in what must be said was a poor race. I don’t love the fact that he is five weeks between runs either but he has the ability to win.
THE SUMMIT ($14) was a good winner second-up at the Valley when charging home late to beat Junipal in a race that rated well and he was solid but should have ran better behind Soulcombe last start at this track over 1700m. He gets out to 2000m now and should get the run of the race.
ALASKAN GOD ($8) will need luck from back in the field but arguably brings in the best form with a fast finishing fifth in the Feehan Stakes last start behind Pinstriped and Attrition. Jamie Kah takes the ride and I think he can measure up and is probably the class horse in the field. Just needs luck.
TIP: Playing the value here. 0.4U EACH WAY #10 BEAR STORY @$20/$5.
RACE 9: UNDERWOOD STAKES, GROUP ONE, 1800M
There looks to be enough speed here to make it an even tempo and every horse should get their chance. LINDERMANN (13) draws well and seems to be the designated leader and ALLIGATOR BLOOD (2) and TUVALU (5) will come across and sit on the speed. BANK MAUR (12) has the option to settle more forward and the likes of RIGHT YOU ARE (9) and SMOKIN’ ROMANS (6) won’t want to be too far back.
ALLIGATOR BLOOD ($3.60) is the one I am siding with. I tried to get him beaten when looking at this race but it all seems to come together nicely for him. He was only beaten 1L by Mr Brightside in both the Memsie and the Makybe Diva and that horse doesn’t turn up here. They will go at an even tempo which he will thrive on and there is the flip side of the ‘he isn’t going that good’ argument that would say that he is older now and needs racing/further. Gai Waterhouse seems to agree with that and I think he will be hard to beat in a lesser Group One than the two he has contested so far this Spring.
ATTRITION ($9) draws horribly (15) but he is flying this time in. He was caught 3WNC on resumption in the P.B Lawrence and stuck on well and then was held up at a crucial stage at the Valley in the Feehan before rattling home to finish a neck away from Pinstriped. If he can sit 3WWC it might be the best place to be in a race like this. It is hard to back him given the gate but if things fall into place he can win.
LINDERMANN ($10) had excuses on resumption and then set a strong speed second-up when finishing 1L away from Think it Over (subsequent G1 winner) in the Chelmsford. I think 1800m might be his peak trip and will lead and be able to dictate with Hugh Bowman back on board.
WITHOUT A FIGHT ($6) was impressive in Queensland winning the Q22 and that rating suggested he would be a contender in the Spring. He has had three trials leading into this and looks ready to fire fresh. The obvious query is whether he is looking for further.
TIP: 1U WIN #2 ALLIGATOR BLOOD @BTSP. Fascinated to see what the market does with him. Wouldn’t mind either him getting crunched or drifting. Neither would make me not bet?
RACE 10: BENCHMARK 100 HANDICAP, 1100M
They are going to go very quick here. SHE DANCES (16) will have to try and sprint quick early to sit on the speed from a wide gate. MIDWEST (4) and VIVIANE (12) will kick up and try and sit 1-2 in the run. The pressure will come though from the likes of GENERATION (2) and STARRY LEGEND (13) who will need to find a spot from sticky barriers. The rest of the field will try and sit around midfield.
ROSE QUARTZ ($15) was a perennial bridesmaid last preparation but she gets conditions to suit here. She generally fires fresh winning two from three and she likes racing at Caulfield more than any track bar down the straight at Flemington. She gets in carrying just the 54kgs and Michael Dee has partnered her in three of her four wins in her career and he gets back on her today. She draws perfectly (6) to sit around midfield off a hot speed and if they can run on, I think she will get a lovely cart into the race. $15 is a big price considering a few of those in the market have sticky draws/aren’t up to her level.
MIDWEST ($4.60) is the saver and I won’t be losing if he wins. It was a leaders dominated race on resumption but he still beat every horse bar Asfoora who will likely become a G1 winner this Spring. He draws perfectly and gets in well at the weights after the claim. He probably leads and he should take a fitness benefit out of that first-up run. He will run well.
VIVIANE ($7) has won two of her last three over this trip at Caulfield and although this is a stronger race, you can never underestimate a mare in form. She will do no work and give a big sight.
ON THE LEAD ($12) should appreciate a strong tempo and was a forgive last start. If he isn’t too far away at the 400m mark he can steam home and win. He isn’t out of it.
TIPS: Double play here. 0.6U WIN #11 ROSE QUARTZ @$15/0.4U WIN #4 MIDWEST @$4.60.
STAKING PLAN:
RACE 1 #7 SHARPER – 0.3U EACH WAY @$26/$5.50
RACE 2 #2 FIRST IMMORTAL – 1.5U WIN @$2.70/#14 SPEYCASTER – 0.5U WIN @$11
RACE 4 #4 NUNTHORPE – 0.75U WIN @$4.80
RACE 5 #1 TREASURWAY – 0.5U EACH WAY @$17/$4
RACE 6 #10 AMENABLE – 2U WIN @$2.20
RACE 7 #2 VEIGHT – 1U WIN @$4/#6 SCENTIFY – 0.5U WIN @$8
RACE 8 #10 BEAR STORY – 0.4U EACH WAY @$20/$5
RACE 9 #2 ALLIGATOR BLOOD – 1U WIN @BTSP
RACE 10 #11 ROSE QUARTZ – 0.6U WIN @$15/#4 MIDWEST – 0.4U WIN @$4.60
GAMBLE RESPONSIBLY. CHANCES ARE YOU ARE ABOUT TO LOSE. SET A DEPOSIT LIMIT.