Racing heads back to Flemington this week after the luckless Valley meeting last week and it must be said that we are happy about it. The best track in the world with some of the best horses in the world on a glorious Melbourne afternoon. Can it get any better? The meeting is headlined by the Makybe Diva Stakes where Alligator Blood, Princess Grace, and Mr Brightside resume their rivalry after a good duel in the Memsie. The supporting cast is led by the Western Australian champion Amelia’s Jewel having her first start in Victoria in the Let’s Elope Stakes, and the Bobbie Lewis Quality where boom mare Benedetta will start favourite. Let’s get cracking!
RACE 1: BENCHMARK 78 HANDICAP, 1100M
Down the straight for the opener. They should go at a genuine tempo with a big field engaged. RED HOT NICC (1) and SKIDAMARINK (18) will probably be 1-2 in the run. MY MATE SONNY (9), FATUSO (8), and BEWS (13) won’t be far away and likely camp just behind them. OUR LAST CASH (5), LITTLE MISS KUBI (10), and ORACLE SON (12) won’t want to be too far away either. The rest of the field will watch it unfold.
SKIDAMARINK ($11) looks to be the value. She is three from four over her short career and each win has had plenty of quality/merit about it. She put 2.75L on the likes of Lady Di Di on resumption at Sale on resumption and then gapped them at Sandown over 1300m by 4L in a high rating race. She was tipped out after that and resumed in Queensland when sitting on a hot speed over 1200m before running over the top of them late. Second and fourth out of that race have won subsequently which franks the form. She has had a ten week break since that and trialled nicely behind Dubai Poet at Cranbourne who won at Sandown on Wednesday. She strikes me as a type who will like the straight. Double figures is generous.
FATUSO ($12) is the other value runner. He can mix his form but his peak figures put him in the finish and I think he races best when fresh which is what he is here. His third here at the end of last preparation behind Vongole and Renosu put the writing on the wall for him to return well and I think he has done that going off his trials at Cranbourne leading into this behind a good horse in Detonator Jack. He has proven that he can sit on a hot speed and still quicken (fastest last 200m of that race after going quick early) and his best first-up figure was very good when winning at Kyneton by 5L. He can run well.
OUR LAST CASH ($12) won over this track and trip first-up when beating a subsequent winner in Anila by 2.75L. He then went back to Sydney and faced a rise in grade when finishing 3.8L off Garza Blanca and Pereille. This is a drop in grade, he gets back down the straight which he appreciates, and he does his best racing third-up. He can only run well.
BEWS ($5) seems under the odds considering he hasn’t beaten much this prep and rises in grade significantly here. Shinn back on is a tick but the $5 looks like poison.
TIP: Playing the value here. 0.7U WIN #18 SKIDAMARINK @$11 and 0.3U WIN #8 FATUSO @$12.
RACE 2: HANDICAP, 2500M
The speed map is of the utmost importance in these staying races. I think they will walk up front here. SERPENTINE (1) will bounce out from a good gate and lead for Ben Melham who will be able to dictate the race. POINT NEPEAN (3) likely sits on his shoulder. ALHAMBRA LAD (5) won’t be far away and the interesting runner is INTERPRETATION (2) from a wide barrier. They can either push across and sit on speed or take their medicine and go back. I think they might drift back but watch for any tactical moves via the stewards here.
MOSTLY CLOUDY ($13) seems a big price considering he had no luck in the same listed race that Serpentine ($7 here) ran second in last start in Sydney. He just hasn’t had much luck at all this time in but the one thing he does have is a good 400m sprint for a stayer and that could be beneficial in this race. He was given a poor ride by Jye McNiel at this track over 2800m three starts ago and I thought he done well to only be beaten a long neck, whilst putting 4L on third. He likes Flemington, he will appreciate the dry track, and I like the set up with him being two weeks between runs here. He seems to do his best racing with that tactic.
SHAIYHAR ($2.60) is the main danger. He has won four from seven and is clearly the runner with the most upside in the race. Every one of his Australian starts has been at Flemington and his last start win over 2000m at this track was brilliant when he won by 5L in BM78 grade. I don’t think he should be so short here though. This is clearly the toughest competition he has faced and I don’t love the fact that he is going from 2000m-2500m off a month break – especially when his only 2500m start in Australia was a fail. He gets in with 53kgs and gets the services of Jamie Kah but I would rather see him in this grade.
SERPENTINE ($7) will lead and dictate the race which is always an advantage. He was tough first-up over 2400m in the Tatts Cup when running second and he generally improves second-up. He was only 2L away from Lunar Flare and Francesco Guardi over this trip last Spring and that is good enough to win this.
TIP: Something small on Mostly Cloudy. 0.375U EACH WAY #9 MOSTLY CLOUDY @$13.
RACE 3: THE SOFITEL, LISTED RACE, 1400M
The boom Queenslander ANTINO (2) likely leads from the inside draw and there doesn’t look to be much to challenge him. PARTY PRINCESS (9) will kick up and be handy. KALINO (4) can come across from a wide barrier and sit potentially OSL/just behind the leader. CLIMBING STAR (8) is the other that can push forward and, in all likelihood, does considering the lack of tempo. They won’t run this one quickly.
KALINO ($6) is hard fit after three runs in this preparation and maps to get a nice run providing they don’t make him work too hard. He was four weeks between runs and sat on a hot speed when finishing 3L away from Buenos Noches and Argentia in a G3 at Randwick and I thought his run behind Devoted at Caulfield when giving that horse 7kgs in the run was terrific. He gets in here carrying only 54.5kgs and Flemington shouldn’t be a concern. He might be too strong late in the piece if he gets an economical run.
DETONATOR JACK ($5) gets back to Flemington where he ran a career peak when beating Nugget over this trip last preparation. That figure would have him in the top three here and I loved the way he returned at Caulfield over 1200m in a sit and sprint affair when running the fastest last 200m of the race. He trialled well in between runs and he fires on the fresh side. He will be spotting them a start but he will be flashing home.
ANTINO ($2.50) looks slightly under the odds to my eye. He might be the best horse in the race but his figures first-up aren’t terrific and he generally takes plenty of improvement for those runs. This is clearly the toughest competition he has faced in his career and he gets lugged with 59.5kgs. He draws well and is likely to get a cosy lead, but it is his first time in Melbourne and there are some things going against him. I don’t love the set up and think he should be closer to $3.50.
CLIMBING STAR ($10) was good fresh but has historically regressed second-up. Watch the market.
TIP: Kalino should be shorter. Antino should be longer. Therefore 0.75U WIN #4 KALINO @$6.
RACE 4: POSEIDON STAKES, LISTED RACE, 1100M
I think they will run this at an even tempo which should mean advantage those on speed or close enough to it. THE INSTRUCTOR (4) will lead them up and the likes of MEXICO (8) and LAKOTA FIRE (7) won’t be far away from him. KING’S GAMBIT (3), MAHARBA (5), and PIVOT CITY (12) have some early speed and won’t want to be giving away too much of a start. The others will sit back and try and build into it.
MAHARBA ($17) is a brilliant each way play. He won at this track and trip on resumption last preparation in the Talindert when beating Hell Queen and he was then taken to Sydney and raced in the G3 Pago Pago Stakes when he beat all bar Shinzo who was the subsequent Golden Slipper winner. I am prepared to essentially forget his only fail which was at G1 level in the Sires Produce on Heavy ground. He was always going to improve at three and his trials leading into this have been outstanding, particularly the one against Pinstriped when he finished alongside him hard held. He will settle in a nice position, he is proven down the straight, and I think he has improved plenty.
KING’S GAMBIT ($3.50) maps to get a lovely run and is a danger. This is the first time he has went the Melbourne way since that dominant 5L victory on debut and he was far from disgraced in both the Silver and Golden Slipper in Sydney last preparation. I think he is being priced off potential to some extent but he does have the best raw figures in the race after his third in the Golden Slipper. The straight shouldn’t be an issue.
PIVOT CITY ($8.50) has only had the one start and that was a dominant 5L win at Bendigo when he ran the fastest last 400m and 200m splits of the meeting. He sustained speed there in that race whilst also showing a good turn of foot which is the sign of a good sprinter. The Price camp are worried he isn’t ready but he maps well and the straight should suit this horse off that debut win.
I AM UNSTOPPABLE ($5.50) will love the straight but he is going to be spotting them a start and I don’t anticipate a strong tempo which might go against him. 1200m in a strongly run Danehill/Coolmore seems like his go. He will be flashing home.
TIP: Like Maharba here. 0.5U EACH WAY #5 MAHARBA @$17.
RACE 5: EXFORD PLATE, 3-Y-O ONLY, LISTED RACE, 1400M
Expect a genuine tempo here. INTRODUCING (3) gets the blinkers on and will kick up lead. LE ZEBRA (1), SOME PEOPLE CALLME (6), and GANGITANO (5) will all try and cross from wide barriers to be on the speed. GRIFF (8) will use the inside draw to fire forward and the likes of LEGACIES (15) and KING OF FIGHTERS (11) won’t want to be too far off them.
LEGACIES ($2.20) looks the one to beat but if you missed the $3, I can’t see any value now at the $2.20 quote. She was dominant at the end of last preparation when winning by 4L at Sandown over 1300m and her resuming run at Caulfield in a G3 when only a length away from a good horse in Veight was terrific for a race like this. Her best figures have her winning this race and she maps to get a perfect run just behind a genuine speed. This is a big drop in grade and she should appreciate Flemington. She will be hard to beat in what I think is a relatively weak race.
NODACHI ($16) is the best value chance. She was brilliant last preparation when breaking her maiden Bendigo over this distance. She won by 5.75L there and then went to South Australia and was only beaten by 0.3L at G3 level. She was tipped out after that, I thought she trialled well leading into this preparation and she had no luck on resumption at the Valley over 1200m when finishing 6L behind Inhibitions. I like that form reference for this race, she will appreciate 1400m and she should improve. Damian Lane is a big tick.
GRIFF ($9) has had excuses this preparation. He was good from a long way back on resumption in the Rosebud and that was a race where the back markers had no chance given the tempo up front. He then reversed roles and sat on an incredibly hot speed in the Up And Coming Stakes and he only peaked late to be beaten 1.8L. He draws to get an economical run and should be very fit now.
INTRODUCING ($8.50) gets the blinkers on and likely leads. He will give some cheek and probably look the winner at some stage.
TIP: There’s no value in this race. If #16 Nodachi reaches $21+ he may become a bet, but I think I’ll leave this one alone. Fascinated to see what the market does with the favourite late.
RACE 6: CAP D’ANTIBE STAKES, LISTED RACE, 3-Y0, FILLIES, 1100M
A capacity field and they will run this at a break neck speed. The likes of TIZ ENUF (12), ULANOVA (1), SICILIAN (16), SHESALLSHENANIGANS (9), STEEL CITY (2), SKIRT THE LAW (3) all want to either lead or sit right on the speed and there is a few others that generally aren’t far away in the run that I still haven’t mentioned. Who can sustain the speed for longer is what will decide this race.
SKIRT THE LAW ($4) is a bet here. The Queenslander has had just one fail in her five career starts and there were excuses with her pulling up with poor recovery after the G2 Sweet Embrace Stakes in that run. On either side of that she won the Magic Millions after sitting on a very hot speed and still finding a sharp turn of foot to win by 1.5L and she was then tipped out and set for the Spring. Her resuming run in the Quezette Stakes at Caulfield was fantastic. She jumped poorly, had to be ridden hard early, and then probably cost herself the race by laying in. She was only beaten by a very smart horse in Charm Stone there. She draws out wide which should be a positive and she should be in a perfect spot in the run. If she improves, I think she wins. Charm Stone would be $2 here.
CIGAR FLICK ($17) is the main danger and at the price it is worth having something on her. They tried to ride her more positively last start in the Furious Stakes but that clearly isn’t her go. When she was ridden with cover in her first two runs this preparation she won and beat Epic Proportions on resumption before being the luckless runner in the Rosebud behind Tiz Invincible. I think she is a horse that is going to love the straight and if they ride her quiet and let them go fast out in front, she will be the one storming home. That Sydney form reads well.
STEEL CITY ($12) did nothing wrong as a juvenile and has been trialling quietly in Sydney. She probably should have won the Blue Diamond down here last preparation and she was terrific in the run after that when beating Blanc De Balance by 2.6L in the Magic Night Stakes. She is an honest type who should appreciate being just off the leaders.
STRETAN ANGEL ($8) put together a frightening last 600m sectional when winning the Dequetville in South Australia by 2.8L. She come from near last to win that race and should appreciate a hot speed. She could be anything and is the one I am frightened of. Kah & Stokes are a lethal combination.
TIP: 1U WIN #3 SKIRT THE LAW @$4/0.3U WIN #10 CIGAR FLICK @$17.
RACE 7: MAKYBE DIVA STAKES, GROUP ONE, 1600M
Ah, the famous Flemington mile. ALLIGATOR BLOOD (2) should be able to cross and lead them up in this small field. MR BRIGHTSIDE (1) will try and camp on his back just like he did in the Memsie, whilst OSIPENKO (6) will boot up and probably have the back of one of the two favourites. PRINCESS GRACE (7) won’t want to be too far behind them. The other three are essentially no chance and will settle back.
ALLIGATOR BLOOD ($4.20) can turn the tables on Mr Brightside here and the price is way too big considering a few things. Alligator Blood has always done his best racing second-up and that is the stage of his preparation he reaches here, and he has won three from four at Flemington which include two Group Ones. In the only race he didn’t win here he was nutted on the line by I’m Thunderstruck in this same race last year. They have raced each other four times over the last year for the record to be 2-2 and I think Flemington over 1600m is advantage Alligator Blood. The $4 is a gift.
MR BRIGHTSIDE ($1.95) is the obvious danger and it seems to be a race in two. He has won his last four which have included two Group One victories and an All Star Mile win. The key to those four wins? They were either in Sydney or at Caulfield or the Valley. Everything suggests he doesn’t perform to expectation here and we are getting the same price differential as we did last start for a 0.8L difference in margin. He is going as well as he ever has but wait until he gets back to his happy hunting grounds.
PRINCESS GRACE ($4.80) should be rock hard fit now. She was excellent on resumption when narrowly losing to Fangirl in the Winx Stakes and she was forced back to the inferior ground when finishing 0.4L away from Mr Brightside in the Memsie. She probably wins if she makes her run wider. She is the only danger outside the top two.
OSIPENKO ($12) will camp on the leaders back and should be ready to fire third-up. The Waller camp love bringing these types to Flemington in big races like this and they almost always equip themselves well.
TIP: The old boy to turn the tables. 1.75U WIN #2 ALLIGATOR BLOOD @$4.20.
RACE 8: LET’S ELOPE STAKES, GROUP TWO, MARES, 1400M
I can’t see them going hard in front and they will run this at a moderate tempo to try and get the favourite beaten. PRIDE OF JENNI (12) looks to be the designated leader and the likes of PAPILLON CLUB (7), TOREGENE (11), WROTE TO ARATAKI (6) won’t be far away. SEE YOU IN HEAVEN (2) will settle on speed. The rest of the field are either back markers or resuming stayers.
WROTE TO ARATAKI ($10) looks the bet with the majority of the stake on the place as I think there are only four chances in the race. She was terrific last preparation when winning at this track over Hennessy Lad before being relatively luckless in the Vanity when she was caught 3WNC and still only finished 2L off Wollombi. She then went to the Kewney and was nailed late by Revolutionary Miss after sitting OSL in the run. She put 1.5L on Nunthorpe that day. She was tipped out and resumed in the Cockram at Caulfield over 1200m a fortnight ago and was terrific late behind the very talented Benedetta, clocking the fastest 400m-200m split of the meeting and the seventh fastest final 200m of the meeting. She gets out to 1400m here, back to Flemington, and draws (3) to get the run of the race. She will run top three.
AMELIA’S JEWEL ($1.80) could potentially be the best horse in the country. She is incredibly versatile and is already a Group one winner over 1800m in Western Australia when she won the Northerly over Steinem. She came back for a two start preparation last time and absolutely savaged the line over 1200m to just miss Overpass in the inaugural running of the four million dollar Quokka. There is some things going against her here being first-up over 1400m and getting back to last and spotting them a start, but she might just be too good for them. I can’t back her at $1.80 but it will be fascinating to watch.
FOXY FRIDA ($12) runs well fresh and generally saves her best racing for Flemington. She is two from three at this track and distance and she should have some residual fitness after a Queensland campaign in the Winter. She isn’t out of it.
LIFE LESSONS ($21) was good late on resumption and should improve here. She needs too, but she does have plenty of ability.
TIP: Wrote to Arataki with the majority on the place. 2U PLACE #6 WROTE TO ARATAKI @$2.50/0.5U WIN #6 @$10.
RACE 9: BOBBIE LEWIS QUALITY, GROUP TWO, 1200M
Smallish field here and the map will be important. NAJEEM SUHAIL (10) and SNAPPER (7) are the two most likely to lead and I think they will go at a quick enough clip. LA DANSEUSE ROUGE (11) will settle handy and the two favourites in BENEDETTA (8) and STAR PATROL (5) should camp on the leaders back. The rest of the field will settle back.
STAR PATROL ($5) had some issues last preparation and I’m prepared to forgive the fail in the G1 Newmarket. In his two starts before that he was a dominant winner over 1000m at Sandown and then finished off strongly in the G1 Oakleigh Plate when running 2L away from Uncommon James. His two peak figures have come at this track and he absolutely flies fresh. His 5L trial win at Cranbourne leading into this has put the writing on the wall and if the McDonald camp have got him right, he will be winning.
BENEDETTA ($2.50) is the main danger in what seems to be a two horse race. She is two from three at Flemington and is three from three over 1200m. Her record is a brilliant one, winning six from eight starts and even though she hasn’t completely destroyed them in her first two runs back, she has put up good figures. She should only improve off that but I don’t understand how she is so much shorter than Star Patrol considering the best horse she has beaten is Parisal. She needs to improve, but she probably will.
IT’SOURTIME ($9) was terrific at this track and trip two-back when beating inferior opposition and he was again solid at the unsuitable Caulfield in the Regal Roller when finishing 0.3L off Savannah Cloud. He will get back and be running on strongly late.
NAJEEM SUHAIL ($9) will lead and is another horse that loves the straight. He has won with ease at both starts this preparation and he drops from 60kgs down to 53kgs which is a big tick. He will look the winner at some stage.
TIP: Banking on Star Patrol being ready to roll. 1U WIN #5 STAR PATROL @$5.
RACE 10: HANDICAP, 1700M
Expect them to walk here in the early stages before ramping it up. SUIZURO (11) and SIBAAQ (4) are the likely leaders and should sit 1-2 in the run. FLASH FLOOD (9) will push across from a wide gate to be handy and the likes of DEVOTED (10) and WENTWOOD (8) won’t be too far back.
CARINI ($3.40) is the best horse in the race and being from Europe I assume he will appreciate Flemington and getting out to the 1700m. He got back near last on resumption at Caulfield over 1400m and was very strong late when recording the second fastest final 200m of the race to finish just 1.4L off Amenable and Devoted ($3.40 here). He draws to get a nice run here and I think Flemington and 1700m is going to suit this horse much more than the equal favourite and Michael Dee has been in excellent form of late. He needs to start winning these types of races if he wants a start in the Cup and I think he will account for this field.
DEVOTED ($3.40) is probably the only danger. He was nutted late by Amenable in that same race at Caulfield over 1400m and then stayed there when winning by 0.75L in a BM100 Handicap. He gets out to 1700m now and gets the services of Blake Shinn which is a big positive. That Amenable form looks like one of the best in the country and I’m happy thinking it is a two horse race.
FAME ($21) is the best roughie and is a promising stayer. He can run well fresh and even though he is outclassed over this distance, he is worth including in your exotics as he will be steaming home late.
TIP: 1.5U WIN #16 CARINI @$3.40.
STAKING PLAN:
RACE 1 #18 SKIDAMARINK – 0.7U WIN @$10/#8 FATUSO – 0.3U WIN @$12
RACE 2 #9 MOSTLY CLOUDY – 0.375U EACH WAY @$13/$2.90
RACE 3 #4 KALINO – 0.75U WIN @$6
RACE 4 #5 MAHARBA – 0.5U EACH WAY @$17/$4.50
RACE 6 #3 SKIRT THE LAW – 1U WIN @$4/#10 CIGAR FLICK – 0.3U WIN @$17
RACE 7 #2 ALLIGATOR BLOOD – 1.75U WIN @$4.20
RACE 8 #6 WROTE TO ARATAKI – 2U PLACE @$2.50/0.5U WIN @$10
RACE 9 #5 STAR PATROL – 1U WIN @$5
RACE 10 #16 CARINI – 1.5U WIN @$3.40
GAMBLE RESPONSIBLY. CHANCES ARE YOU ARE ABOUT TO LOSE. SET A DEPOSIT LIMIT.