Another decent day last weekend, hopefully, this momentum continues to grow and the winners continue to flow. A beautiful day of racing has been organised for what was once George Main Stakes Day. So while that race has been moved and renamed, all the good horses are still here for its replacement so they don’t stuff up their prep. I am confident I have found at least 3 winners on the day if not half the card. That’s right, I am calling my shot, I look forward to the deserved abuse I will cop if I fall flat on my face.
Track Report: The weather is fine, the track is a Good 4, we might even need to get the sprinklers out for the first time in a long time to make sure we start on a Good 4. The rail is out seven metres from the 1000m-Winning Post; Out four metres for the remainder. Watch the leaders, the prime spot to be going around that turn will be the first 6 or so in the run.
Race 1 – 1600M Midway (Bm72)
Midway to kick off the day and boy I hate being on a favourite in such an open race, but Elettrica has my money. She is flying this prep and is yet to let me down when on her. She just needs to not find herself boxed on that fence from the inside draw and she can run over the top of them again here.
Backrower is always supported by the market and can run a cheeky race on its day, but has found himself quite one-paced. Can always bounce back, he is just one of those horses. Should find himself amongst the pack and try and swing wide late to go around them.
Socrates presents as a huge value chance. Dyl Gibbons thrives in races such as this and he is flying, so you know he will be giving this one every chance. The horse has been everywhere and anywhere this prep, but he has been consistent if anything. Can jump on the bunny and prove hard to run down if the bias ends up playing towards the leaders.
Patrika Mist finds herself up in class but she is running well, is undefeated 2nd up, loves the dry and loves the mile, she should run well.
Selections: 1-2-6-4
Suggested Bet: Elettrica Win
Race 2 – 1000M Tab Highway Hcp (C3)
Salire seems to be the obvious pick class wise. He has a thunderous turn of foot and no jockey is going better than Zac Lloyd right now, however, from his low draw, he’ll most likely get sucked all the way to the rear and spot them a good start.
However, with that rail out I am not sure he’ll be able to catch them. Iron Will will jump on the bunny and look the winner for a long way, just needs to be able to hold off all of the chasers, which I think he can do, I am on.
Derry Grove goes in a the deserved favourite after 2 strong wins at this grade and a win here could potentially see him breakout of Highways all together. Nash will give him a peach, he has had great success thus far, however, he usually likes it wet, so be wary.
Smokeshow can bounce back here at a big price. She ran quite well despite being posted wide without cover last start and managed to finish just under 4 lengths off of the winner. Back to a grade that suits her much more, I can see her finding her way into the money.
Selections: 5-6-2-8
Suggested Bet: Iron Will Each Way
Race 3 – 1600M Peachester Lodge Shoot Out Mile (Bm88)
This one, in my opinion is the worst race of the day, it just screams Average.
The only chances in my mind outside of the favourite are the two that have the Just Fine form, that being Gan Teorainn and Logan Street Lion. Neither were any chance of winning that race but with that form, along with the drop in class, they should be well set up here.
Gan Teorainn carries 4 kilos less, its 1 career win comes at this distances, just needs to find a clear lane to the line to get up.
Straight Acer looks better than a midway horse, but this will be a fantastic test to see if he can hang. Mission Phoenix goes in due to his unwavering consistency when he finds a dry deck.
Selections: 9-5-10-1
Suggested Bet: Gan Teorainn Win
Race 4 – 1400M Nick Moraitis Trophy (Bm78)
Nick’s horse Cheerful Legend lines up in this one and boy does he have a strong chance despite the big price. His win in midweek company was dominant enough for him to bypass the Midways and come straight here, which mind you, was at the price tag of $24, so don’t let the market fool you. He has one hell of a kick and can certainly figure into this one.
The other clear chance in my eyes is Gringotts. Seems really well placed here as his last start at Moonee Valley is a forgive, don’t think the track played to his style. Longer straight here, bigger track, he’ll relish it. Out to his pet distance as well, only runs strongly in my opinion.
Altivo is the favourite and fair enough considering his record. 5:4-1-0 just jumps off the page, especially with Zac Lloyd on board, who has a fantastic record with the Hawkes camp. However, without Lloyd’s claim, which has been outridden, the horse will have to carry an almighty amount of weight, which could be the tipping point in the final stages.
Holymanz is another Victorian raider coming to Sydney to represent the Maher and Eustace camp. He has strong form lines and much like Gringotts his last race is definitely a forgive and forget thanks to the race pattern.
Selections: 5-6-1-4
Suggested Bet: Cheerful Legend Each Way, Gringotts Win, 5-6-1 Boxed Quinella
Race 5 – 2000M James Squire Kingston Town Stakes
Just Fine is the field favourite here and boy didn’t he run up to scratch last start? Managed to snag him at $12 for my loyal readers and he absolutely smashed them. This is a different calibre of horse for sure, but he is shorter than I would want him, however, he is still the winner in my mind. Wins here and he’ll shorten severely for all the stayers races, so if you like him and are wanting to dabble on the futures markers, get on him in the futures for the Metropolitan in a few weeks time as well.
Montefillia a strong winning chance as always, she races much better last start if she doesn’t mess up the start, up in distance, she will be very hard to beat in my opinion. She finds a rock hard deck too her liking and just needs to sit closer in transit to be able to run over the top.
Major Beel is the X Factor here with this potential leaders bias that could eventuate. He has a low enough draw that he should be taking a comfortable lead, if not sit right behind whoever does lead and will have to be run down in the end and as we have seen before with him, he is not the easiest horse to get past.
Protagonist another outstanding chance at a big price, he has drawn terribly, but if he can find cover he can run over the top of them in the end, he just can’t catch a break lately with barriers.
Selections: 16-2-4-7
Suggested Bet: Just Fine Win
Race 6 – 1400M Darley Tea Rose Stakes
Kimochi up in distance is good thing to see, feel like she has been crying out for longer this prep with her thundering finish. Her two runs at 1200m have seen her come up short by a nostril twice and this is her chance to show that she is a serious Group 1 threat come Flight Stakes time.
Zardozi, another girl that is crying out for longer in my opinion. However, a middle draw was probably crucial so she didn’t find herself getting too far back with the wide rail. She has drawn the inside gate, meaning she most likely ends up at the very back. Jean Van Overmire is a genius if he gets her up, but I would have her in all of your exotics.
Tiz Invincible is flying this prep so far. Beat the boys first up and then backed it up against her own sex class last start. Zac Lloyd got to take the ride off of a injured JMac and sticks on her now and can certainly go 2 on the trot with her, making it 3 on the trot for the horse.
Platinum Jubilee has drawn quite wide, but she is a bit of a maverick, you never know how she will run and hence she needs to be in the numbers.
Selections: 3-6-1-5
Suggested Bet: Kimochi Win
Race 7 – 1600m The 7 Stakes
Stacked field, as it should be, considering this used to be the G1 George Main Stakes, so we have a G1 calibre field here progressing through their preps.
Fangirl the obvious pick for me, said I would shave my head if she didn’t win a big race this Spring and she won for me in the very first start. I think she is the 2nd best horse in the country over the mile so I think the only thing that beats her here is bias.
Only danger in my mind, the horse that wouldn’t have to turn the tables is Pericles at a great value price. Think he is the next big thing for the Godolphin camp over the mile and would be shocked if a Group 1 win doesn’t come for him in the next year. Lloyd will ride it will. I think it will be a great battle.
Think It Over at the mile on a rock hard deck, this used to be just an automatic bet. But the new breed are in town and have proven to be more reliable in his absence. His two starts since returning from injury have been strong enough to tell me he can win here and I will be the first one to cheer for him if he does so.
Zaaki is the field favourite here and I can see why. The old boy continues to kick on he was fantastic without winning in the Winx Stakes and his run will be much of the same here. He will lead, kick away and try and hold on. He will look the winner for a long way before the swoopers come for him.
Selections: 9-8-1-2
Suggested Bet: Fangirl Win
Race 8 – 1100M The Shorts
The race I like to call The Mini Everest as it always those who are already locked in facing off against the entire chasing pack of horses who are desperate to beat them in an effort to prove they are worthy of a slot. Without Nature Strip this year, this race is wide open.
Buenos Noches and Remarque are looking for their first Everest appearance, whereas Lost and Running and Private Eye are looking to go to the dance once more.
However, In Secret, the horse who has essentially locked in a slot already for Godolphin, it is just unconfirmed comes in as a firm field favourite and should be winning. She was enormous late last start when just out run by Remarque and quite honestly, she is my top seed for The Everest currently. Big call I know, but she’s a star and can be the first mare to win the big one. I am on the girl in blue.
Buenos Noches, Remarque and Private Eye all go in as the very narrowly split 2nd, 3rd and 4th selection. They all have the same race pattern, sit just off them and go like a bullet when the button is pressed. If they go too hard up front, watch them fly to the line.
Selections: 5-6-7-1
Suggested Bet: In Secret Win (BEST BET) and 5,6,7,1 Boxed Trifecta
Race 9 – 1400M Bill Ritchie Hcp
Tamerlane for me. Zac Lloyd will give it a peach, take him right to the front or right behind the leaders back and try and run past them in the straight.
Rediener is also another one I can see getting the choccies with his form over Yellow Brick. His Brisbane Winter Carnival really saw him stand up as a credible threat in Black Type races and his latest trials have been encouraging enough to respect an each way play if you like him.
Converge, is this his most winnable race in years? I would say yes, will I be on him? No. Olentia can bounce back, ran on well enough being wide no cover last start, but she’s still too short for me in such an open affair, she hasn’t proven to be trustworthy enough. Both horses should run strongly and will likely be around the finish, thus, they are a must in your exotics.
Selections: 8-16-1-11
Suggested Bet: Tamerlane Each Way
Race 10 – 1200M The Agency Real Estate (Bm88)
I will say, Garza Blanca, big fan of that horse, if he races, which is unlikely as he needs 6 scratchings on a day with perfect weather, I will definitely be looking his way. He has saluted many times for me, so watch this space, I will double play the race in case he doesn’t race.
If he is not racing, I am All over Kibou here. Regan Bayliss was commenting on our posts a few months ago saying he was a genuine Golden Eagle chance. If that is the case, needs to be winning this. Just the one run in the Winter prep where he went down by a whisker to Iowna Merc, who is good form for a race like this. But Kibou, first up, over this distance, with the rail out can just lead, kick and win.
Pizzaro at $20 plus is insulting if I am being honest. This is the same horse that was only losing by a whisker to Think About It in the Autumn and now lines up here in much easier company and gets a huge price. He is the value of the race for sure.
Kote looked to be the horse on the rise last Spring absolutely smashing any competition that came his way. However, he has fallen off hugely since. However, finds a winnable grade here.
Selections: 20-6-2-1
Suggested Bet: Garza Blanca Each Way Saver and Kibou Win
Top Selections For The Card
Race 1: Elettrica
Race 2: Iron Will
Race 3: Gan Teorainn
Race 4: Cheerful Legend
Race 5: Just Fine
Race 6: Kimochi
Race 7: Fangirl
Race 8: In Secret (BEST BET)
Race 9: Tamerlane
Race 10: Garza Blanca/Kibou
Quaddie
Race 7: 8,9
Race 8: 1,2,4,5,6,7,9
Race 9: 8,11,12,16
Race 10: 1,2,6,10,20
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