We head to Flemington this Saturday and it is ‘moving day’. We have a bit of everything on this program but it is headlined by the Group One Turnbull Stakes over 2000m where Hong Kong superstar Romantic Warrior is a $2.15 favourite in his first Australian start. I expect that price to drift out. The main event is accompanied by the Bart Cummings over 2500m where the winner is an automatic starter in the Melbourne Cup, the Danehill Stakes for horses being set for the Coolmore Stakes, and both the Super Impose and Edward Manifold for the 3YO stayers. The track is likely to be anywhere between a Soft 5 and Soft 7 considering the Melbourne weather and how well Flemington drains. Let’s get into it!
RACE 1: BENCHMARK 78 HANDICAP, 1200M
They are an even bunch and the tempo should be genuine given the capacity field. STORMBOLT (12), ETIENNE (18), PIONEER RIVER (3), and OUR LAST CASH (2) should all sit on the speed/race handy. The likes of CRESTANI (9), ANILLA (7), XTRAVAGANT STAR (13), and BOLDINHO (11) shouldn’t be far away in the run whilst the rest of the field will watch it unfold and hopefully run over the top.
BEWS ($4.80) goes on top in an open race and with little confidence. He has come back a much better horse this time in and his win on resumption at Sandown showed that when winning by 3L. His last start run down the straight over 1100m was terrific behind Our Last Cash ($17 here) when he arguably should have won the race before striking interference over the last 300m. He clocked good closing splits there, he gets Jamie Kah on who has won on him before and the 1200m looks ideal now. He should be running top three.
ETIENNE ($5) is another who has come back brilliantly. He won with ease on resumption at Morphettville over 1000m and then stepped up to this distance last start at Ballarat when beating Bencoolen by 3.75L whilst putting 7.75L on the third horse. The race rated well and he showed he can sustain a strong gallop there. If he gets a start, he will be the one they have to chase down late.
MY YANKEE GIRL ($26) might be the value. She didn’t come up last preparation but the one before that showed she was good enough to be competitive here when she rocketed home to beat Invincible Caviar at this track and trip. She likes this set up and her trials leading into this have been outstanding. She will be finishing strongly if they overdo it out in front.
SUPARAZI ($26) is the best of the rest. I am convinced he is going well and his two runs in this time have been good. The straight is a query though.
TIP: Keeping the powder dry early. Nearly impossible to be confident of anything here.
RACE 2: 2-Y-O, SET WEIGHTS, HANDICAP, 1000M
It is always tricky to map these juvenile races. Off the trials BLUE ILLUSION (2) should settle handy. There isn’t a whole lot of speed engaged outside of him. WOLFGANG (8) seems to show some early speed and BODYGUARD (3) might settle behind them with CENTRE SQUARE (4). The rest of the field will sit back, I think.
BLUE ILLUSION ($2.40) is clearly the one to beat. I couldn’t find anywhere how much the Godolphin operation paid for him but being by Blue Point I assume it is home bred for them. He was excellent in his only trial over 800m at Flemington. He showed plenty of natural speed and was only asked for an effort over the last 150m where he showed a good sprint to hold off stablemate Eject and rival in this race Immortal Joy ($21 here). Obviously race day is different but he could easily be a bet here. He is built for speed this Colt.
BODYGUARD ($5.50) is a $1.6 Million Dollar Colt for the Snowden camp who was good in a recent trial in Sydney behind Espionage who subsequently won the Breeders Plate last Saturday. Craig Williams takes the ride and I think the straight is the only query to see whether he can run well. I think it is a race in two.
CENTRE SQUARE ($14) is another colt by Blue Point who showed some speed at the trials. He wasn’t asked for an effort in either trial so we don’t really know what is under the hood. He could be the one to run a race at odds for the Maher & Eustace camp.
WOLFGANG ($4) has been good in some recent trials and is ready for this assignment. He can do a bit wrong but he clearly has the talent to be competitive in a race like this.
TIP: I want $2.80+ for Blue Illusion. If we get it, he is a bet. If not, there’s always another race. Patience is key.
RACE 3: SUPER IMPOSE STAKES, LISTED RACE, 3-Y-O, 1800M
I don’t think the winner of either the Derby or Oaks is here but I’ve been wrong before. The speed is drawn out here with AMBASSADORIAL (3), LUGH (10), SUNSETS (7) all drawing the widest three gates. RUMINATE (13) won’t be far away and the likes of RIPROAR (8), FISTSOFFURY (2) will use their low draws to kick up and settle just off the speed. The rest of the field will settle midfield or worse.
RIPROAR ($9) gets all the favours here. He was luckless in his first two Australian starts when trapped 3WNC the trip over 1300m and then 1500m and he still nearly won on resumption in BM64 grade at Bendigo. After that luckless run at the Valley (which I don’t think he appreciated the tight track either) he went back to Bendigo and finally had some luck when winning comfortably in the end over Wilmot Pass over 1500m. They didn’t go overly quickly there and it was a sprint home which I think is a good recipe for success jumping up to the 1800m for the first time. Damian Lane sticks and clearly thinks he is a good type and he is a half to Mr Maestro who was fourth in the Victorian Derby so the distance shouldn’t be an issue. He will get a dream run throughout and he is clearly value at this quote.
APULIA ($5) frightens me. He was outstanding fresh in maiden grade when beating his rivals by 2L over 1500m at Cranbourne and he was very strong late when stepping up in grade and distance over 1500m at the Valley when finishing 0.75L away from Fistsoffury ($19 here). He crabbed around the bend there and I don’t think he appreciated the Valley. I hate the fact that he got his preparation interrupted when he was scratched in the Derby trial but he was going to SP as a favourite there. He has been given a tick over trial in between runs and if he can find some cover from a tricky draw (12) he will be flashing home.
MICKIO ($26) was strong late on debut over 1624m at Donald and he sustained a strong speed last start at Geelong when winning with ease. He is a dour staying type but this isn’t a brilliant field to my eye and he could outstay them if they overdo it early.
RIFF ROCKET ($3) was good off a slow speed to win fresh at Kembla Grange and he worked home well last start over the 1800m at Rosehill in BM72 grade. He draws to do no work from the inside peg (1) but is he up to this grade? I wouldn’t be finding out at $3. Seems a rock bottom price from my analysis.
TIP: Happy to be with the New Zealander. 0.5U EACH WAY #8 RIPROAR @$9/$2.80.
RACE 4: EDWARD MANIFOLD STAKES, GROUP TWO, 3-Y-O, FILLIES, 1600M
Cracking race this. I think they will go at only a moderate tempo and it could potentially be a 600m sprint home. The outsider of the field GRINZINGER BELLE (11) is the designated leader and you would expect the favourite in LEGACIES (2) to cross from a wide gate. BASILINNA (14) will come across with her. APRILIA (7) will get a lovely run just off the speed from a good draw and the likes of KONASANA (10) and ZARDOZI (4) can settle further forward if they elect too.
APRILIA ($15) is over the odds here. She had the three starts in New Zealand as a juvenile for a dominant win at Matamata and then a close second in the G1 Sires Produce Stakes. The Forsman camp have brought her over as part of their Spring attack and I thought her first-up effort at the Valley over 1200m was excellent when she recorded the second fastest 400m-200m split of the race and the third fastest final 200m split. She then went to Caulfield and was luckless when being 3WNC the trip. I thought the effort was fantastic considering she only finished 0.3L away from Poifect and that horse is $6 here. She will appreciate Flemington, the mile suits, and she should get the run of the race. She ticks boxes.
SUBRISING ($20) is the other I want to have something on. The Blackiston camp clearly thought something of her in her first preparation when setting her for the Blue Diamond and she has come back in brilliant order this preparation. She rattled home to win on resumption at Sandown, and then stayed at Sandown when going up to 1400m when she again closed off well off a slow tempo. The run that caught my eye was last start in the Jim Moloney when she settled last over 1400m and absolutely flashed home to finish sixth whilst recording the fastest last 200m of the race. Flemington, 1600m, she will be finishing strongly and is over the odds.
LEGACIES ($4) should probably be forgiven after the one bad run (in which she was only beaten 2L by subsequent winner Griff). She was excellent fresh when 0.75L behind a good horse in Veight and her last preparation win at this track over 1400m still rates as the best run that any of these horses have produced. She should be able to cross from the wide gate (14) considering the lack of speed engaged. I think $4 is skinny personally but the market will be key late, as will the parade.
ZARDOZI ($14) is the exotics horse. She had excuses fresh but she did put three on the trot together last preparation in Sydney and I feel like she would have been in the finish last start at Sandown if it wasn’t for bad luck. She should be able to springboard off that run and 1600m and Flemington should se her best.
TIP: Playing the value here. 0.7U WIN #7 APRILIA @$15/0.3U WIN #9 SUBRISING @$20.
RACE 5: DANEHILL STAKES, GROUP TWO, 3-Y-O, 1100M
A tricky map here with a small field engaged. The outsider HONOR GALORE (11) will likely lead them up here. LIBERTAD (1) will be handy as always and the likes of CIGAR FLICK (10) and TREASURWAY (8) have the option to settle closer if they elect too. The three favourites in the field will likely settle as the back three which should allow for an interesting race.
STRETAN ANGEL ($4.80) is a very promising horse and I think she can beat the boys here. She showed plenty in South Australia in her first preparation which included an end of preparation 2.8L win at Listed level where she settled last off a slow speed and charged home to run the fastest last 400m and 200m splits of the meeting. She resumed down the straight over this trip off no trial and was enormous coming from essentially last to finish second and miss by 0.2L. She clearly had the fastest last 200m of the race there and the effort had even more merit considering the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th horses were all in that position at the 400m mark. She won’t be giving her main rivals too much of a start and I think she has the best turn of foot and she should only improve off what she did first-up.
I AM UNSTOPPABLE ($3) has been monstering home with every run this preparation and he probably should have beaten Archo Narcho ($4 here) last start after being slightly held up over the last 300m. I think he is crying out for 1200m now but he won’t have traffic issues this time and I think the market is right with him being ahead of Archo Narcho here who might want further now?
CIGAR FLICK ($13) is the blowout chance. She strikes me as a type who will love the straight and her effort two-back over this trip at Rosehill wouldn’t have her far away in this field. She also might have a map/fitness advantage over some of her rivals here.
ARCHO NACHO ($4) is under the odds for mine. I am not knocking his win last start but he did get every favour possible and the second horse did strike interference. He was also a drifter ($9 > $13) that day which doesn’t inspire much confidence.
TIP: Happy to be with the South Australian. 1U WIN #9 STRETAN ANGEL @$4.80.
RACE 6: ROSE OF KINGSTON STAKES, GROUP TWO, MARES, 1400M
There will be a fair bit of speed here early. STARLIGHT SCOPE (8) may take it up and I think the Tasmanian in JAJA CHABOOGIE (5) will kick up from the inside. The likes of SKEW WIFF (1) and WALTZ ON BY (6) have decisions to make on whether to go forward or back from sticky draws. WROTE TO ARATAKI (4) won’t want to be too far away and the same can be said for the two favourites in PRINCESS GRACE (3) and LIFE LESSONS (10).
PRINCESS GRACE ($1.80) is a deserved favourite but I think we are getting rock bottom odds at the current quote. She is hard to knock coming off a second to Mr Brightside over 1400m at Caulfield two-back and a 2.6L defeat in the Makybe Diva last start. None of these horses are close to Group One level realistically and she will get the dream run just behind the leaders. Flemington might be a knock though off what we saw last start and she does drop off after her first three runs in a preparation. She should be winning but anything under even money isn’t worth it.
LIFE LESSONS ($7) shapes as the main danger. She worked home well on resumption at Caulfield and then was super last start at this track and trip when only beaten 1L by Amelia’s Jewel who is $4 for the Cox Plate. She maps to get a nice run throughout and if the favourite falters this Mare will be hard to hold out.
WROTE TO ARATAKI ($27) was poor last start but I generally forgive a bad run, especially if it is rare like that one was. She was brilliant fresh at Caulfield when recording the fastest 400m-200m split of the meeting and she has the tactical versatility to either settle forward or back. She can bounce back hard.
SKEW WIFF ($9) draws awkwardly (12) but did beat both Legarto and Dragon Leap in the G1 Tarzino Trophy last start. The Walker camp don’t bring them over the ditch for nothing and I think she is a class horse. If she has some luck, she can be rolling over the hot pot. I think punters will keep her safe.
TIP: Leaving this one alone. There is no value here whatsoever and any drift would make me suspicious.
RACE 7: THE BART CUMMINGS, GROUP THREE, 2520M
Whoever wins we will see on the first Tuesday in November. The speed should be genuine considering what is on the line. SIR LUCAN (5) will vie for the lead with the likes of GOLDMAN (2) and FUTURE HISTORY (15) who will kick up from the inside. SERPENTINE (4) will go forward with the blinkers on and there is a decision to be made with the favourite FIRST IMMORTAL (18) and where he goes from the widest gate. ALASKAN GOD (10) has the option to settle further forward if they they elect too.
FIRST IMMORTAL ($3.60) is going to need a touch of luck and for Daniel Stackhouse to be at his best but he is still a bet here because I think he has a few lengths on his rivals. He has won seven from thirteen now and he is three from four at this track. He was excellent two-back when he probably should have beaten Ain’tnodeeldun at the Valley over a mile (subsequent winner) and he was simply breathtaking when winning by 4L at Caulfield over 2000m. He gets in well at the weights with his low rating still and if he can find some cover in the run, I don’t think they will beat him. He deserves his shot at the big one.
FUTURE HISTORY ($15) is going to get a nice run either on or just behind the speed. He was strong late off a very slow tempo at the Valley when beating Interpretation over 2040m and he was only nailed late by Young Werther who is absolutely flying at the moment. Craig Williams takes the ride which is an upgrade on Carleen Hefel and I think he can give plenty of cheek over the last 400m.
SERPENTINE ($11) was terrific first-up off a hot speed when finishing 2.5L off Athabascan ($6.50 here) and he worked home nicely again at this track over the 2500m last start. The Williams camp haven’t got a Cup runner yet and they will have this bloke cherry ripe to try and get a runner. He should be nearing peak fitness now.
ALASKAN GOD ($21) was super at the Valley two-back over a mile when recording good closing splits and he was again strong late in the Naturalism when being beaten 2.75L. This distance range seems ideal for him and he should be at his top fitness wise.
TIP: I think the up and comer is a good bet. 1.5U WIN #18 FIRST IMMORTAL @$3.60.
RACE 8: TURNBULL STAKES, GROUP ONE, 2000M
I think they will go at an even tempo in the feature. WEST WIND BLOWS (5) leads/races handy overseas and may lead them up here. The favourite ROMANTIC WARRIOR (1) will come across and sit potentially OSL or just off the leaders. RIGHT YOU ARE (15) and SMOKIN’ ROMANS (3) will come across from wide draws and sit on the speed and the likes of UNCLE BRYN (8) have the option to settle closer in the run.
OSIPENKO ($7) is good value here. His one average run this preparation was at Caulfield but his runs either side of that at Randwick and Flemington were excellent. He essentially ran the same last 400m split as Mr Brightside did in the G1 Makybe Diva Stakes last start and it was hard to make any ground at all in that race. He has had the one crack at 2000m and that was for a win in the G3 Frank Packer Plate where he beat Pericles. He should settle a bit better than midfield which is the place to be and he should be at his peak here fourth-up. He will be steaming home late. I’ve been waiting for him to get out to 2000m for a while now.
ROMANTIC WARRIOR ($2.30) is the proven superstar and it will be fascinating to see what the market does with him first-up down under. His first-up effort last preparation was a career peak when beating another champion horse in Dubai Honour by 2.5L. He shouldn’t have many issues crossing from an awkward draw (11) and he gets James McDonald back on who has won on him before. If he handles the Australian way of racing and the conditions, he will be very hard to beat.
DUKE DE SESSA ($35) is the blowout chance. His first-up effort in Australia last preparation was full of merit in the G1 Doncaster Handicap when he finished off strongly to run just 3L away from Mr Brightside. He then resumed at Caulfield in the Memsie Stakes and wasn’t disgraced after pulling up with EIPH. The Maher & Eustace camp say they have got him back on track and his second-up form reads well. He could be the one to beat them at big odds. His form lines stack up and he is too big of a price.
GOLD TRIP ($11) was brilliant on resumption at the Valley when he recorded the third fastest final 200m split of the meeting to finish 1L away from Young Werther. He might be a horse that just fires during the Spring and even though he will be spotting them a start we know he loves Flemington and his grand final is only a month away so the camp will have him ready to fire here.
TIP: Playing the value and going against the import. 0.7U WIN #7 OSIPENKO @$7/0.3U WIN #12 DUKE DE SESSA @$35.
RACE 9: GILGAI STAKES, GROUP TWO, 1200M
They are going to set a hectic tempo here. SNAPPER (3) and JIGSAW (1) are incredibly quick horses who will lead them up and favourite STAR PATROL (2) is also fast and likely camps on the back of them. Do they overdo it out in front? ROCKET TIGER (13) and ASHFORD STREET (5) won’t be far away but the rest of the field will be midfield or worse and watching it all unfold.
C’EST MAGIQUE ($6) will settle midfield here and I think that is going to be the best place to be in this race. We know she loves the Flemington straight as her two career peaks have come here and the run in the Coolmore at the end of last preparation when she flashed home for second to finish 2L away from In Secret and beat Buenos Noches by a length would be winning this race. That was a brilliant effort and she resumed at Caulfield off a very long break and was $9 > $7.50 late in betting before looming up and peaking over the last 200m to finish 1.8L off Benedetta. She was entitled to peak there going straight up to 1200m fresh in a fast run race and I think she will improve off that. She will get a lovely run throughout here and the Begg and Childs combination are a lethal one to follow at Flemington. She will run over the top of them late.
STAR PATROL ($2.60) was excellent first-up in the Bobbie Lewis when holding off King of Sparta and beating boom horse Benedetta by just under a length. He generally improves or holds his form second-up which is a good sign for this race and he draws in what is likely to be the best part of the track. He is hard to knock but off the ratings at their best (outside of one run) there isn’t much between he and the Mare and therefore he is probably a touch short currently. If he reaches $3 you can have something to save on him.
TRIPLE MISSILE ($9) will settle back and just pray that they fight each other for the lead. If they do, this bloke has every chance to run over the top of them. He fires fresh, he likes the Flemington straight, and most importantly he loves racing where there is a genuine tempo and he will get that here.
JIGSAW ($5.50) is the one I am against. I think he is too short at this quote and have the top two selections clearly ahead of him. In his one start down the straight I think he resented it and even though he has a good record fresh, the ratings suggest he gets better as the campaign goes along. I can’t see him running top two here, but I have been wrong before.
TIP: I think the Girl can beat the Boys here. 1U WIN #14 C’EST MAGIQUE @$6.
RACE 10: PARIS LANE STAKES, LISTED RACE, 1400M
The tempo looks to be just even here. TAMERLANE (5) will cross from a wide gate (12) and likely lead them. It looks to be lacking speed after that. MYSTERY SHOT (15) and NOT AN OPTION (3) have the ability to settle more forward from low draws, whilst the likes of UMGAWA (9) and VON HAUKE (16) will try and position just off the leaders. The best sprint home might win this as I think it will be a compact field.
VON HAUKE ($13) is over the odds here. He broke his maiden in good fashion last campaign and his end of preparation run when a neck away from Star Mistress when running the fourth fastest final 200m split of the meeting was an indication that he was ready to rise through the grades. He did exactly that when returning a winner at Sandown over 1300m when beating Helix (subsequent winner). He pulled his head off on that occasion and still got the job done which added more merit to the performance. He goes up to 1400m now which is ideal, he has had a trial between runs and I think Flemington will suit his racing style. He is tactically versatile and I think he can be the one at odds to run over the top of them. He is untapped.
TAMERLANE ($4.20) maps to get a very easy lead and I doubt they will fight him for it. He was entitled to peak first-up when he led at a very strong tempo and he was brilliant second-up last preparation when winning. If they leave him alone out in front, he could easily pinch it.
CHARTERHOUSE ($10) was terrific in the Winter Championship when flashing home to finish second and he was good late in the Bobbie Lewis after being out sprinted early. 1400m, Flemington, all big ticks. He just needs a genuine tempo.
UMGAWA ($6) is the best of the rest. He is a consistent type who can run well again.
TIP: Playing the value in the get out. 0.5U EACH WAY #16 VON HAUKE @$13/$3.80.
STAKING PLAN:
RACE 2 – TBC
RACE 3 #8 RIPROAR – 0.5U EACH WAY @$10/$3
RACE 4 #7 APRILIA – 0.7U WIN @$15/0.3U WIN #9 SUBRISING @$20
RACE 5 #9 STRETAN ANGEL – 1U WIN @$4.80
RACE 7 #18 FIRST IMMORTAL – 1.5U WIN @$3.60
RACE 8 #7 OSIPENKO – 0.7U WIN @$7/0.3U WIN #12 DUKE DE SESSA @$35
RACE 9 #14 C’EST MAGIQUE – 1U WIN @$6
RACE 10 #16 VON HAUKE – 0.5U EACH WAY @$13/$3.80
GAMBLE RESPONSIBLY. CHANCES ARE YOU ARE ABOUT TO LOSE. SET A DEPOSIT LIMIT.
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