We head to Moonee Valley this Saturday for the running of the 2023 Cox Plate. For racing purists, the Cox Plate is arguably Australia’s best race. Hong Kong champion Romantic Warrior is the favourite for this year’s event at $3.60 with Alligator Blood the second elect at $5.50. The program also features the G1 Manikato Stakes where we have a $1.50 favourite in New Zealand mare Imperatriz. The Fillies Classic and Moonee Valley Vase will also give us a clearer picture of both the Victorian Derby and Victorian Oaks which will be held over the next fortnight over the Melbourne Cup carnival. Let’s get into it!
RACE 1: HANDICAP, 1000M
A small field of sprinters to kick off the program. They will go quick here. UNFLINCHING (2) will ping the lids and likely lead with TAUNTING (3) coming across to sit outside the lead. CLASSY JAYBEE (6) and ASHFORD STREET (1) will sit behind them and then FASUTO (4) and SHALAMAN (5) will settle at the rear.
FASUTO ($6) is racing well this time in. He was solid to the line fresh down the straight over 1100m and the form coming out of that race (Bews and Cause for Concern) looks to be superior to any of his rivals form references. He fell last start at this track which obviously isn’t an ideal lead up to any race. I thought he was going to be in the finish there before falling and his trial between runs was encouraging in terms of him coming through it well. He can run over the top of them late but he goes on top with little confidence.
UNFLINCHING ($3.75) was too bad to be true last start when finishing 6L away from Shirshov over 955m. Nothing came up in the stewards report but his trial between runs was solid and it is hard to ignore his record at the track and distance winning five from seven. If he jumps well, he should get a nice lead and be able to kick around the bend and be hard to run down. I am prepared to forgive one bad run and I think he will open as the market favourite.
ASHFORD STREET ($7) was beaten in a relatively strong G2 last start in the Gilgai but his runs before that would see him in the finish here. He was only beaten 2.6L by Asfoora and Midwest three-back and arguably should have finished closer two-back at Caulfield when 1.8L off the likes of Viviane and Rose Quartz. He will sit behind the leader and might get the last crack at them which is ideal at the Valley.
TAUNTING ($2.30) was a good winner last start in Adelaide. He will camp on the speed but he probably needs to find 2-3L to be competitive and he generally regresses third-up.
TIP: Get on the fair and LAY #3 Taunting if you want to invest in the race. Should be $6.
RACE 2: INGLIS BANNER, 2-Y-O, 1000M
These juvenile races are incredibly hard to map and I am not really going to try. What I would suggest is to look to horses drawn in and who might get on the rail as that is generally a big advantage for these first starters.
BLUE STRATUM ($3.70) needs a run but if he does get it, I think he should be favourite. He has shown an abundance of speed in his two trials to date and in his latest before this debut run, he was excellent when running 46.27S over 800m at Terang when he was never asked for much of an effort. The McEvoy camp are brilliant with these young horses and he gets the services of Damian Lane who is probably the best jockey in the country at the moment. He draws low (3) and likely sits on the speed and gets the rail run.
RUE DE ROYALE ($23) has trialled up nicely leading into this and is another who draws low (4) which helps in these types of races, especially at the Valley. The McEvoy camp also train this Colt and I think he can measure up on debut.
IMMORTAL STAR ($6) was excellent at Flemington in her latest hit out. She sat on speed in that trial and kicked nicely when asked for an effort. I doubt the second horse will beat her home here.
BLUE ALLURE ($7) sat on the speed in a recent trial at Flemington and held his rivals at bay. He draws low (5), is in the right camp, and gets an in form rider on him. He is far from the worst.
TIP: At the price I can have something on Rue De Royale. 0.3U EACH WAY #5 RUE DE ROYALE @$23/$4.80.
RACE 3: TESIO STAKES, GROUP THREE, MARES, HANDICAP, 1600M
The speed will be slightly above a moderate tempo here. SOUL CHOICE (5) looks the likely leader and will run them along. DELICIOUS TYCOON (9) has accepted for Friday night but does look to press over and sit outside the lead here from the wide gate (9). WISHLOR LASS (2) in all likelihood gets the gun run behind the leader providing she jumps well from the rails draw. EN FRANCAIS (4) and OSMOSE (3) won’t want to be too far away from them either. The rest of the field will settle near the rear.
EN FRANCAIS ($7) is the value here. She worked home nicely fresh at Morphettville over 1400m behind Chicago Storm in a leaders dominated race and her run last start in the Murray Bridge Cup was fantastic rising to the mile. She was posted 3WNC for the entirety of the race on a hot speed and still looked the winner at the 50m mark before Jack the Lad overran her late. The last time she was third-up she produced a career peak when narrowly losing to Beltoro and in her other third-up run she broke her maiden when winning by 7L. She needs to improve but everything ratings wise is suggesting she will and I think we will see a career best figure here. She has always shown the ability to be up to this grade.
WISHLOR LASS ($2.35) is a deserved favourite and I couldn’t talk you out of backing her if you have rated her as short as the market has her. I was on her last start when she fought off Barbie’s Fox to win over the mile at G3 level. It was a tough win as most of the other on-speed horses faltered but it didn’t rate particularly well and she is giving some of her rivals 5kgs in the run here which is significant. She is a good horse and is a winner, but she is too short for me at the moment. I rated her a $2.80 chance and wouldn’t take anything shorter than that.
SOUL CHOICE ($6) was a strong winner on resumption at Warwick Farm over a mile and was three weeks in between runs when rising in grade to the G3 Angst Stakes where she led at a fast enough tempo when finishing 2L away from Renaissance Woman. She gets around the Victorian way well, the Valley should suit, she is third-up, and she is the likely leader. Linda Meech is also a big tick. She is a box ticker.
THALASSOPHILE ($6.75) reaches this race third-up and she should be ready to peak. She ran the second fastest final 200m split of the race in that Angst Stakes after finding trouble early in the straight. We know she handles the Valley and following McDonald/Waller with horses third-up is profitable.
TIP: Siding with the different form reference here. 0.75U WIN #4 EN FRANCIAS @$7.
RACE 4: WILLIAM CROCKETT STAKES, LISTED RACE, 3-Y-O, FILLIES, 1200M
A capacity field and every horse should get their chance as the tempo will be strong. FLOOZIE (12), PARADISE CITY (11), ATLANTIC SPIRIT (10) will all want the lead or to sit right on the speed. GUMDROPS (14) and INHIBITIONS (3) map to get beautiful runs from good draws, as does MUMBAI MUSE (9). CIGAR FLICK (4), FIRE LANE (2), SALTAIRE (1) all have decisions to make about going forward or taking their medicine and going back which could add even more speed into the race.
RIGHT TO PARTY ($14) will get back but providing they can run on throughout the day she looks well over the odds. She ran well in her first campaign in Queensland and was given a break before resuming at this T/D a couple of months ago. She was a big firmer that day being backed from $10>$6.50 against Inhibitions who was a $2.60 favourite. The race shape didn’t suit but she ran the fastest final 200m split when rocketing home for third. She then went to the Atlantic Jewel when she suffered cardiac arrythmia. She gets around the Valley well, she has trialled nicely, and I think she is a very nice horse. She will be flashing home late.
GUMDROPS ($21) seems a big price. I don’t think she handled the heavy track on debut at Sale but she was spelled after that and returned a good winner at Ballarat when winning by a length to break her maiden. Her trials leading in before that were of a good Filly and Damian Lane had the choice of whether to ride her or Floozie and he has stuck with this Filly. She will get the run of the race and only needs to appreciate the Valley to be in the finish. She needs to improve but she will.
INHIBITIONS ($5) is a very consistent Filly and coming back from the 1400m to the 1200m suits her. It took two very smart horses in Charm Stone and Coeur Volante to beat her at this T/D and I don’t think she ran out a strong 1400m last start at Caulfield. This is a better set up for her and as long as she hasn’t had enough (it has been a long preparation) she can win again.
MUMBAI MUSE ($4.20) brings down the Tiz Invincible/Kimochi form from Sydney which looks good for this race. I don’t think she ran out the 1400m last start and coming back to the 1200m helps. I guess the question is do you like the Sydney form better than the Melbourne form. I think it is marginally better only and therefore she is a touch skinny as favourite.
TIP: specking the value. 0.4U WIN #8 RIGHT TO PARTY @$14/0.35U WIN #14 GUMDROPS @$21.
RACE 5: CRYSTAL MILE, GROUP TWO, 1600M
A small but quality field of six here and tactics will play a big part in the result. TUVALU (1) is the likely leader here and Jamie Kah should be able to dictate terms on him. PROWESS (6) will use his rails draw to probably try and camp behind the leader. ANTINO (4) should settle next and then the other three gallopers in the field should settle at the rear, but not too far away from the leader.
ANTINO ($3) looks like one of the better bets on the program. He has been excellent in every run this Spring. He was luckless fresh behind Detonator Jack (subsequent winner in a big race in Sydney) when he should have won by panels, he then got over the top of Here to Shock in the Sandown Stakes whilst putting 2.5L on third, and his run in the Toorak was exceptional to be narrowly beaten by Attrition. If you swap the runs there, I think he is a G1 winner and he was still finishing off well when recording the fastest final 200m split of the race. I think he will camp just behind Tuvalu and as long as he handles the Valley, he should go straight past him. His best run and rating last preparation was fourth-up and he is at the same stage of the preparation now.
TUVALU ($2.80) is the main danger but I think he is too short at the current quote. Both he and Antino have direct form lines through Attrition with this horse finishing 0.75L away from him two starts ago in the Feehan Stakes at this T/D. He didn’t see out the 1800m in the Underwood and coming back to this trip suits. There is a couple of negatives. Jamie Kah is in horrendous form currently and is going at a low percentage from her last fifty rides and I thought the trial in between runs was sub-standard for a G1 horse. I personally think he is showing signs of coming to the end of his preparation, although I have been wrong on that before. Regardless, I still think he is the second elect.
BANKER’S CHOICE ($13) is a big price for a horse who only finished 1L away from Antino in the Toorak. He was super from the rear of the field and he was also luckless fresh at Caulfield when never getting a look at them in the straight. I think he should be at about $9 so if you like him, I couldn’t talk you out of backing him. He should be ready to peak third-up and the Moroney camp is flying.
PROWESS ($4) is under the odds. She is at her best over 2000m and her first-up rating in New Zealand was nothing to write home about. Her G1 win was in the Vinery Stud and that was a real average field. She should be closer to $10 than $5.
TIP: Sticking with the Queenslander. 2U WIN #4 ANTINO @$3. If he drifts I’ll back him again.
RACE 6: FILLIES CLASSIC, GROUP TWO, 3-Y-O, 1600M
There is no speed engaged here at all and I don’t think they will go overly quickly. GRINZINGER BELLE (7) should lead on the quick back up with APRILIA (2) and NODACHI (6) sitting on her heels. The rest of the race is hard to map. Based on the figures BROADCASTER (10) and CAPTAIN AMELIA (4) have the option to be closer in the run. The rest of the field will settle in a bunch around midfield and at the rear.
BROADCASTER ($5.80) has been knocking the door down without luck and I am hoping she has some luck today because if she does, they will struggle to beat her. She would have been in the finish two-back in Maiden grade at Rosehill with any luck and the form out of that race has been good with two subsequent winners coming out of it. They went up in grade in the Reginald Allen and she was posted 3WNC the entirety over 1400m yet still kept coming late to finish 1.8L off Arctic Glamour who is the current favourite for the Thousand Guineas. She is crying out for the mile which she gets here and only needs even luck to be in the finish. That Arctic Glamour/Joliestar form will be the A1 form for the end of the carnival.
APRILIA ($8) is worth saving on. With no speed engaged in the race they will have a leisurely time up on the speed and she has been good in her most recent starts. Two-back she was caught 3WNC and still fought on to finish 1.8L away from Oz Empress and last start she sat second and it took a talented horse in Zardozi to beat her. The Valley should suit, the race shape should suit, and I think they might struggle to chase her down. The proven horse in the race.
SKYBIRD ($4.40) has been dominant in both of her two starts to date. She put a gap in them at Ballarat over 1200m before rising to a relatively strong BM64 at Bendigo over 1300m where she defied both the pattern of the day and the pattern of the race to win by 2.5L whilst recording the fastest last 600m sectional of the meeting. This is much harder, and the Valley might not suit her, but she is a Filly going places and class will take her a long way. Fascinating to see what the market does with this horse.
CAPTAIN AMEILIA ($4.40) is one I am happy to be against at the price. The Flight form took a hit when Tropical Squall went down to Autumn Angel last week and I thought she had every chance to finish off better after looming up at the 350m mark. She flattened out there and this race will be run slower than that. I think the McDonald tax is coming into play here. She should be bigger in the market.
TIP: Playing the value. 1U WIN #10 BROADCASTER @BTSP/0.5U WIN #2 APRILIA @$8. React late here punters. I can see the market changing quite a bit before jump time.
RACE 7: MOONEE VALLEY VASE, 2040M, SET WEIGHTS, 3-Y-O
They will run along quickly to give every horse their chance in this race. AIR ASSAULT (2) will come across from the widest gate and look to lead, although he may be made to sit outside the leader if SNOWMAN (5) kicks up from a lower draw and crosses them. KONING (7) and VERDAD (3) will want to be near the speed whilst PORT LOCKROY (6) has the chance to kick up from the rails draw (1) and sit behind the leader. The rest will watch it unfold in front of them.
PORT LOCKROY ($8) seems a big price considering Snowman ($5 here) is much shorter and they both follow similar form lines. He went from breaking his maiden to running in the Listed Dulcify when he wasn’t beaten far (2.4L) against the likes of Tom Kitten and Ganbare. He was bumped and buffeted for the entirety of the straight by Tom Kitten and had some excuses. He then went back to BM70 grade and put a gap on his rivals after sitting on a hot speed. I think 2040m suits, he gets a gun run, and the Dee and Neasham team strike at 29% which inspires more confidence. He can run well.
APULIA ($9) is a horse I have plenty of time for. I have already backed him to win the Derby (not sure if he is going there or not) but I thought he was excellent last start over the 2000m at Caulfield in a slowly run race to finish just 2.7L off the likes of Riff Rocket and Sunsets. They literally walked there (21L slower than standard to the 800m) and he still finished off nicely. He handles the Valley well, they will go much quicker here than they did in that race, and I think he is more suited than most of these horses at this trip. He will be storming home late.
SNOWMAN ($5) didn’t have much luck in the G3 Gloaming Stakes last start and beat Riff Rocket relatively easily in his start before that which reads well for this. 2040m is some concern from where I am coming from but he does get the services of James McDonald who is a brilliant long distance jockey. He will look the winner at the 450m mark.
VERDAD ($2.80) is one I am happy to be against. I thought his run in the Guineas was okay without being sensational and his final 200m split didn’t scream out wanting 400m further. He essentially held his ground to the line and I don’t think he will run out a strong 2040m based off that. I have been wrong before but I am not taking $2.80 going in thinking that they need to walk for him to win.
TIP: Heavily against the favourite. 0.5U WIN #6 PORT LOCKROY @$8/0.5U WIN #4 APULIA @$9.
RACE 8: MANIKATO STAKES, GROUP ONE, 1200M
Another small field contests the Group One sprint. The speed will be moderate here and I don’t think they will go too quick. I AM ME (7) and JIGSAW (4) will sit 1-2 in the run with I AM WAR (5) kicking up to settle just off the speed. UNCOMMON JAMES (3) and IMPERATRIZ (6) should get the gun runs just behind the speed with the other runners in the race at the rear.
IMPERATRIZ ($1.50) is the best sprinter in the world and has 5-6L on her rivals here as most of these rivals are the B grade sprinters in our ranks. She broke the track record fresh over 1000m when beating Rothfire and Giga Kick and she won magnificently last start in the Moir Stakes over 1000m beating Asfoora and Uncommon James by 1.25L. 1200m is no concern and the form out of that race looks brilliant considering Asfoora 3.25L on Uncommon James in the Schillaci subsequently. There is no value around but I doubt she loses.
I AM ME ($7.50) will lead and is the leading contender if the favourite doesn’t fire. She ran well fresh behind a couple of good horses in Sunshine in Paris and Espiona in the Sheraco Stakes and she backed that up with a very strong win over Bella Nipotina last start over 1200m in the Sydney Stakes. She will lead, she is three from four third-up, and she can only improve. She will give them something to catch.
JIGSAW ($29) is a very big price. He doesn’t go much good down the straight so I am prepared to forgive that run. He did finish 7L away from Imperatriz in the William Reid last preparation but he was entitled to drop out after they went at a break neck speed. He won’t go as hard here, he goes well second-up, and he loves the Valley. The fact that him and The Inferno are at the same price is just wrong and I couldn’t talk you out of a place bet on him.
UNCOMMON JAMES ($8) was disappointing last start in the Schillaci but he was only 2.25L away from the favourite fresh in the Moir. He doesn’t mind the Valley and he is one of the G1 winners in the field. He maps well and should be improving here. I just don’t think he can improve enough.
TIP: Just watch this one and see the best sprinter in the world collect her seventh Group One.
RACE 9: COX PLATE, GROUP ONE, 2040M, WFA
It is a wide open edition of the Cox Plate according to bookmakers. They will run along at about standard time (maybe slightly above) here and every horse should get their chance. ZAAKI (2) will cross from the widest gate and will either lead or sit outside of ALLIGATOR BLOOD (4) who will kick up from a perfect draw. MR BRIGHTSIDE (3) is another who draws low and will look to take up a position. ROMANTIC WARRIOR (1) maps to get the run of the race after gliding across from a middle draw. KING COLORADO (12) has a decision to make from the wide gate and MILITARIZE (11) will try and be more positive.
ROMANTIC WARRIOR ($4.20) is the one I want to be with. I posted on my socials this week that I was keen on him and I was surprised to see him drift at the time of writing. On figures and ratings he is clearly the best horse in the race and his run in the Turnbull was better than most think. He sat on the speed off a fast tempo and only knocked up late to finish 4L away from Gold Trip. He would have taken plenty of improvement off that, it looks like the A1 form reference for the Spring and his best figures are all second-up. He will be hard to beat the Hong Kong champion.
ALLIGATOR BLOOD ($5.50) is the main danger. He was terrific in the Underwood over 1800m at Caulfield when beating Tuvalu by a length and he backed that up by winning the G1 Might and Power over 2000m when beating Vow and Declare and Duais. I don’t love that form line, but he sits on the speed (potentially leads) and gets Timmy Clark back inn the saddle like he did last start. He is a six time Group One winner who is as tough as they come.
MR BRIGHTSIDE ($7) is some query at the 2000m but he loves the Valley winning three from four here and I can forgive one bad run which came last start in the King Charles. He maps to get an economical run which is what he needs, it won’t be a bone dry track which is a positive, and he is a winner. He goes into everything.
MY OBERON ($61) is the blowout chance. His Crystal Mile win sticks out as a fantastic one at this track and when the conditions and race tempo suit, he has proven he can take it right up to the likes of Mr Brightside and Fangirl who are much, much shorter than him in the market. I think 2000m might suit him more than them and at cricket score odds he is worth having something on.
KING COLORADO ($26) will beat Militarize home and should be shorter. His run in the Guineas was fantastic and he likely lands on or close to the speed. Include him in the exotics with the light weight.
TIP: Keen on the champ. 1.75U ROMANTIC WARRIOR @$4/0.25U WIN #6 MY OBERON @$61.
RACE 10: RED ANCHOR STAKES, GROUP THREE, 3-Y-O, 1200M
I think they will run along at an above average tempo here. REVALENE (11) and CRITIQUE (4) will push across and most likely sit 1-2 in the run. SCHWARZ (10) will use the inside gate to kick up and sit right on the speed. SNIPPETY LEGEND (5) will also try and cross them and sit on the speed as well. LOOSE ON GIN (6) and MAHARABA (2) will settle in the next pair and the rest of the field will settle back.
LOOSE ON GIN ($12) seems over the odds. The form lines from his first preparation now read well. He finished alongside Hedged in a hot maiden on debut at Ballarat over 1000m before going to Warrnambool over the May carnival when being beaten a head by Scentify over 1200m on a Heavy10. Hedged was beaten 1.6L at G3 level subsequently and Scentify was beaten a neck in the Caulfield Guineas prelude so the form stacks up. He was then spelled and resumed in a Hamilton maiden over 1100m when winning by 3L and being hard held on the line. 1200m suits here, he should improve second-up, and he only needs even luck to be in the finish. He is a big price.
SCHWARZ ($4.80) jumped awkwardly on debut over 1200m at Gosford and was then scrubbed up to lead before running away with the race and smacking his rivals by 3L. He won’t want to jump awkwardly here from the low draw (1) which is some concern, and the race didn’t rate overly well, but the eye said to me that he was a very good horse in the making. McDonald on is a big tick and if he jumps cleanly, he probably leads and is hard to run down.
BARBER ($6.50) was good fresh in the Heritage Stakes when running on strongly behind Ozzmosis before being beaten 2L by King’s Gambit in the Roman Consul. He could be ready to peak third-up and providing he handles the Valley he should appreciate the genuine tempo. He will be running on late.
REVALENE ($23) is the blowout chance. He was beaten 0.75L by what I think is a good horse in Excess on debut at Cranbourne over 1000m in a race that rated well. He draws to have to do a bit of work (9) from the gate but there is nothing to say he can’t improve significantly with the race experience. If he does and appreciates 1200m, he might prove very hard to run down. Blake Shinn on is a big tick.
TIP: Playing the value in the get out. 0.5U WIN #6 LOOSE ON GIN @$12.
STAKING PLAN:
RACE 2 – 0.3U EACH WAY #5 RUE DE ROYALE @$23/$4.80
RACE 3 – 0.75U WIN #4 EN FRANCAIS @$7
RACE 4 – 0.4U WIN #8 RIGHT TO PARTY @$14/0.35U WIN #14 GUMDROPS @$21
RACE 5 – 2U WIN #4 ANTINO @$3
RACE 6 – 1U WIN #10 BROADCASTER @BTSP/0.5U WIN #2 APRILIA @$8
RACE 7 – 0.5U WIN #6 PORT LOCKROY @$8/0.5U WIN #4 APULIA @$9
RACE 9 – 1.75U WIN #1 ROMANTIC WARRIOR @$4/0.25U WIN #6 MY OBERON @$61
RACE 10 – 0.5U WIN #6 LOOSE ON GIN @$12
OUTLAY: 9U
GAMBLE RESPONSIBLY. CHANCES ARE YOU ARE ABOUT TO LOSE. SET A DEPOSIT LIMIT.