Oh boy, oh boy, oh boy. Punting Christmas has come! Everest week in Sydney, Guineas week in Melbourne, countless big races to punt on, as well as the world pool coming to town. Everything comes to a head this week and I am very keen to get stuck into the races, let’s crack on!
Track Report: The track will be dry and rock hard come the weekend. There has not been really any rain for a couple of weeks, constant 30 degree days, the only reason we won’t get a Hard 2 is the use of extensive irrigation and a small 10 minute deluge that came on Thursday night. The rail goes out 3 metres, that usually doesn’t have too much effect on the bias, but I feel the best place to be will be the front half of the field going around the bend as we are anticipating quite a fast track so the leaders could more than likely skip away all day.
Race 1 – 2600M Moet & Chandon St Leger Stakes
I would hate to see Cleveland win without me so I just have to be on him, we’ve yet to see his best in Australia and maybe that’s just because he hasn’t travelled that well, but this drop in class should help him and JMac jumps on for the first time, he should be running well.
Usually, the Europeans show us how it’s done when it comes to staying races, which is why Land Legend is the massive X-Factor in this race. While he hasn’t done much of note over in Europe, he has still been running around with some decent horses and as such he needs to be respected, especially with the bottom weight.
Kalapour has some strong formlines for a race like this. Been running around with the likes of Fawkner Park and Just Fine, both of which would be winning this race with ease you’d feel. The way he has been closing off in each start indicates that 2600 is a big yes.
Major Beel could end up being the forgotten horse after flopping in The Metropolitan. But one bad run does not make a bad horse. He could come out here, set a strong pace and just run away from them in the straight. He has done it at G1 level, so why couldn’t he do it here?
Selections: 3-10-2-1
Suggested Bet: Cleveland Win
Race 2 – 1400M World Pool (Bm78)
Garza Blanca for me and one of the more confident bets of the day, if not THE most confident bet of the day. He should be a class above these. The camp want to press on to the Golden Eagle and if they want to be there on the 4th of November, he needs to be winning this and strongly. But, I think he can. He is a smart type that has been running around with Smashing Eagle and Kibou, both horses that are a class above this, as is Garza Blanca. He is only here, because he didn’t get a start in the Silver Eagle. He has to carry a lot of weight, but he is good enough for this crew.
Iknowastar is flying right now, albeit, against nobodies, but wins are wins and he has 3 of them on the trot. McLucas’ claim will help and if they let him have his way in front he will have every chance to break their hearts and go all the way with it.
Sequestered the only other horse I could really entertain as a winning chance. Won really well against a smart type in Fall For Cindy, who has since come out and smashed it in as a $1.65 shot. The form has been franked clearly and Zac Lloyd is in red hot form, he can certainly snag a win here.
Ivan’s Hero goes in to purely fill the exotics.
Selections: 5-1-19-13
Suggested Bet: Garza Blanca Win (BEST BET)
Race 3 – 1400M Bisley Workwear Reginald Allen Quality
Looking for value in what should be a very open contest and I like the look of Kundalini. She was an early 2YO type that just kept coming up short against the likes of Learning To Fly and Don Corleone, both of which would spank this crew. Happy to have a stab at odds.
Arctic Glamour a very respectable favourite after smashing the competition by over 4 lengths last time out at the midweeks, this seems the natural progression. Current favourite for the Callander-Presnell in a few weeks time, he’d want to be winning this for it to remain that way.
Joliestar finished just behind a horse by the name of Facile on the Warwick Farm Monday meeting a few weeks back. Facile is one of those horses that never really put it all together against the top 2YO’s, but boy is she quick, so I respect the form behind it.
Aditi will need to cross them all from that wide barrier, but she has the speed to do so without burning too much petrol I feel. Absolutely gapped them first up when they failed to put the pressure on her, if things go similarly her, she can most certainly get the win.
Selections: 1-4-3-2
Suggested Bet: Kundalini Each Way
Race 4 – 1800M Toyota Forklifts Gloaming Stakes
Snowman has to be the bet here. Has been the running mate for Riff Rocket his last few strts and that horse is now short favourite for a Derby after killing a smart field at Flemington on the weekend. He will push forward from the wide barrier and be given every chance by Bowman. Unlike a few of these as well he has already been to this distance and won at this distance, all signs point to a strong run.
Tom Kitten obviously the class horse of the field who is a winner at the Group level. He was a short favourite here a couple of weeks ago and failed to fire, only managing 3rd. The reason being, I feel he simply didn’t love the tempo and he also needs a little longer, so the extra 200m will suit, but even 2000+ I think is more his go.
Ganbare has to be in the numbers, he won last start in a race he simply had no right to, but granted, they let him have his way up front and he licked his lips and went on with the job. Has to do it the tough way this time from barrier 18, but he should still find himself towards the front. A win wouldn’t shock this time in.
Pushy was quite good last start only just coming up short behind Ganbare. Has yet to run a bad race in his career, should run similarly to last start, loom to win late, it will be the test late to see if he can go one better.
Selections: 8-3-2-4
Suggested Bet: Snowman Win
Race 5 – 1200M The Kosciuszko
Mogo Magic isn’t short in the market, are you kidding me? Has he lost a leg? At time of writing he is $9. I just don’t understand. Yet to lose a race or trial all career. They don’t often get close to him as well, because he is so strong, he is above the country class and with a win here he should progress up. Probably the most confident I have been in a horse that is this wide in a long time. I look forward to either looking like a genius or an idiot.
All things considered Opal Ridge should be winning, I emphasise SHOULD there, as I think she wouldn’t go amiss in an Everest personally. She has been above this level for ages now, she’s short, has an ideal draw and JMac on board, everything should fall her way, but I still think the better bet is Mogo Magic with the price swing.
Front Page is another horse who is above this class. He won this race last year after leading the whole way and I wouldn’t be shocked if he does it again. He is first up, which is when he does his best work and ever since his Kozi win last year he has been racing in mostly Group 1 contests and has been far from disgraced as well. Recent trial looked fantastic, he is ready to rock and roll.
Now Derry Grove isn’t above this grade…yet. But, I think he will make the jump soon. All grade he has looked too good for Highway grade with 3 straight strong wins. He will get a peach from Nash from that perfect draw, watch him fly late.
Selections: 8-7-1-12
Suggested Bet: Mogo Magic Each Way
Race 6 – 1200M Feel New Sydney Stakes
The race for the leftovers. All the horses who didn’t manage to snag a slot in The Everest look to warm up the crowd before the big one.
The barrier is awful for Bella Nipotina, but quite simply she is the best horse in this race and she should be in the Everest. Her form is around all the best Everest chances such as Private Eye, Think About it, Hawaii Five oh, overpass, as well as form around Amelia’s Jewel and Imperatriz. This is her pet distance as well, I hope Willow gives her a peach and gets her up
I Am Me is another horse which I can see being competitive in a race like The Everest, so she can measure up here as well in my opinion. Wide draw, but she certainly has the early speed to overcome it. Started the prep very strongly and then over raced in the Sheraco, but still found herself close behind Sunshine In Paris, who I had as a live chance in the Everest, before she scratched. JMac will give her every chance.
Vilana was a winner on this day last year in the Silver Eagle an ever since he has been running well in some some strong races against some strong horses, notably Overpass and Giga Kick, both of whom would be winning this presumably. He maps to be in a very cushy spot going around the turn and as long as he doesn’t end up in traffic, he is a chance.
Smashing Eagle will likely find himself a touch outclassed here. However, he will have the fitness edge on a few of these and if they overdo it up front, he will be flying late and the slightest bit of cart into it he will get will help. Definite inclusion in the exotics.
Selections: 13-15-2-18
Suggested Bet: Bella Nipotina Win
Race 7 – 1200M The Everest
Private Eye for me. I would have preferred if he had drawn potentially 6-8 but 9 is still doable for him in my mind. He drew Barrier 3 last year and was able to sit closer to them with cover before darting through a gap, this year he will have to go around them all. But he has made a habit of running well when wide. Obviously he wants some cover, but with clean jump he should find some. He got into this race by smashing them from Barrier 9 and 3 wide no cover and he won the Nature Strip Stakes last year from Barrier 11 so has no stranger to it. Nash in freakish form right now as well. Happy to have him as the top seed.
I Wish I Win is a contender simply because he is the best horse in the race, so I can’t possibly pen him, however, my big call of this race is he will not win! I think he is running for second place from that barrier. They wanted anything but Barrier 1 and they got it. If he gets sucked towards the rear this will be very difficult for him as this track should be running very fast and rounding them all up would be a bit of a freakish effort. They need to be proactive from that draw and sit a little closer, that can bring him into it and hope they find a gap.
Overpass finds the rail easily and is the only clear leader in the race, and as such he should get every chance in the world, especially if he sets a quick sectional going down down that back straight and around the turn he can run away with it down the straight. However fast he goes will be the determining factor if those backmarkers can get into the race. I think him to place is probably one of the better bets of the day. I wouldn’t be surprised if he remains in front the entire run until the very last second when they pass him. But I would be really surprised to see him finishing outside the top 6.
Think About It has won an incredible 8 straight and has only been defeated once in his career. Ideal draw lets them do whatever they want with him. Go forward, take a sit, ride for luck, whatever they want, he can do it. I think a boatload of money will come for him on race day and he will start favourite. Everywhere you look he has a tick next to his name, undefeated at the track undefeated at the distance, a staggering 8/8 on the dry tracks. He would be a popular result.
Selections: 2-1-5-3
Suggested Bet: Private Eye Each Way, Overpass Place, 2/3 Quinella and a 1, 2, 3, 5, 12 Boxed Trifecta
Race 8 – 1300M Silver Eagle
The horses who are to progress onwards to the golden eagle soon enough. I fail to see why Pericles isn’t the favourite. Yes, this distance is well short of his best, but class wise, he has to go on top for me. Gets Zac Purton as well, that is a huge bonus. He should cross most of them and sit right behind the leading bunch, turn the corner and explode late, might just find the distance a touch sharp late, but he will be in the finish for sure in my mind.
Yellow Brick a seriously talented horse that should be super competitive and will run strongly in my mind. Faltered first up but only by a miniscule margin. Take into the fact that he split Rediener and Hawaii Five Oh only a few months ago reads spectacularly here.
Benedetta is a smart smart girl here and while I am unsure how she would go at the Golden Eagle level, as she is a sprinter, not a horse I can see tackling 1500m, but luckily for her, she is at 1300m here, a distance she is 2/2 at. Will be the strongest late.
Ruthless Dame was plain first up, but she improves sharply when 2nd up, last time she was, she almost won the Surround Stakes when she was beaten by a literal whisker. She can measure up here.
Selections: 1-5-12-3
Suggested Bet: Pericles Win
Race 9 – Kings Charles III Stakes
Mr Brightside, obvious favourite, he quite frankly could be the best horse in the country, win this and he is no doubt, but they won’t make it easy for him that’s for sure. Last two times he’s been here he has won back to back Doncaster Miles, which is not something you see very often. He has drawn perfectly and Williams will give him a steer, some are saying he is bet of the year and I don’t blame them honestly, he is just that reliable.
Fangirl will be absolutely flying late and it is not often you see her at such a large price, especially considering she gets an ideal set up, not something she sees often. JMac will give her every chance, have her settle much closer than last start, tuck in amongst the pack, find a gap and explode. I think the quinella with Brightside is the best exotic play of the day.
Zaaki just keeps kicking on doesn’t he? He should find the lead easily and completely dictate the pace of the race. You would think Kah just tries and utilise the fast track and play a catch me if you can sort of game going around the turn, as it is often the way to get the best out of Zaaki, because he can sometimes become unstuck under a bit of pressure. He will look the winner for a long way.
Light Infantry Man came out here last year as the boom favourite of The Golden Eagle and he let more than a few punters down when he finished 6th. But to his case, 20 horses spread wide at Rosehill doesn’t leave a lot of room and he was caught in traffic for 90% of the race. He has been in top form ever since and I expect a stronger showing here.
Selections: 2-14-3-5
Suggested Bet: Mr Brightside Win, Fangirl Place and 2/14 Quinella
Race 10 – 1600M James Squire Angst Stake
Gonna be with Ausbred Flirt for a bit of each way value in the last. Ran super first up and she tends to do her best work later in the prep so I think there’s improvement to come. Up in distance as well, she will do her best work late and hopefully finds herself in the finish.
Frumos is one of those horses that punters have a love hate relationship with. She was Horse #2045 that was heralded as the next Winx when, as first arriving on the scene she was a Waller trained/Bowman ridden mare that had a strong turn of foot. Turns out, just like they all end up being, she’s just ok. But at the end of the day, she is consistent, always putting in an above average run and popping up with a win here and there. She can find one of those wins here.
Amokura was labelled the next big thing in the staying world after 3 straight wins during the QLD carnival. This would have to be her big test to see if she can continue that form in a genuine Spring Carnival Group 3 affair, which a win could see her progress to a race during cup week.
More Secrets rounds out selections for the exotics as the field favourite.
Selections: 13-3-1-10
Suggested Bet: Ausbred Flirt Each Way
Top Selections For The Card
Race 1: Cleveland
Race 2: Garza Blanca (BEST BET)
Race 3: Kundalini
Race 4: Snowman
Race 5: Mogo Magic
Race 6: Bella Nipotina
Race 7: Private Eye
Race 8: Pericles
Race 9: Mr Brightside
Race 10: Ausbred Flirt
Quaddie
Race 7: 1,2,3,5,12
Race 8: 1,3,5,12
Race 9: 2,14
Race 10: 1,3,10,13
$50 gets you 31%
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