G’day everyone! From now, until the Autumn, I will be changing the previews I put up and doing a series of best bets around Australia instead of doing full meeting previews in Victoria. This will allow us to focus on the races and states we do best in historically which should mean more winners for anyone following! This Saturday we will be covering racing from Caulfield on Thousand Guineas day, Newcastle for The Hunter race day, and Sunshine Coast and Ascot where Listed and Group racing is taking place.
CAULFIELD
We will be having a couple of best bets at Caulfield this Saturday. The track should be rated as a Good 4 come the first race and the rail is true for the entire circuit which generally allows for fair racing. If anything, it may favour those up on the speed and on the rail, but it shouldn’t be a glaring bias.
RACE 2 #6 ROBUSTO – 1U WIN @$5
This Waller trained Gelding doesn’t win out of turn but he has been racing against much better horses than what he faces here. He had no luck on resumption in a BM88 at Randwick when not getting clear running until the 100m mark and he still clocked the eleventh fastest last 200m split of the meeting. He then come down to Victoria over the Flemington Carnival and essentially held ground when 2L off Pascero. He has won two from three third-up which he is at now, his peak ratings all come third-up, and James McDonald sticks. He has good tactical versatility and I think he can be ridden more positively here. I think he is ready to peak and gets all the favours.
RACE 7 #2 COEUR VOLANTE – 1.25U WIN @$4.20
Happy to be with the Moroney trained Filly here in the big one. She has won three from four in her young career and last start was the run for me that made her a rightful favourite for this race. After getting back at Sandown and then at the Valley over 1200m, Blake Shinn showed that she had some early speed and scrubbed her up early to settle fourth in the Thousand Guineas Prelude when she put them away to win by 1.25L at this track over 1400m. She still reeled off the second fastest 400m-200m and final 200m splits there whilst she did all the work early. From the ideal gate (5) She can be put in the race again and has all the map advantages over her main danger in Skybird who draws low (3) and will get back. 1600m shouldn’t be an issue and I think she will be too good for them here. Thought she was a $2.80 chance. Nothing from the Prelude will beat her here.
NEWCASTLE
Newcastle holds the ever-growing tradition of The Hunter Raceday, with the feature being worth a million dollars. The 1300m start at Newcastle generally favours those on the speed which will make both the early markets and late betting interesting.
RACE 7 #4 SLY BOOTS – 0.75U WIN @$10/#9 UNTIL VALHALLA – 0.5U WIN @$5.80
Two bet play here in the Spring Stakes. SLY BOOTS flashed home to break his maiden on resumption over 1300m when recording the sixteenth fastest last 200m split of the meeting off a hot tempo. He then stayed at 1300m at Randwick, got back after being bumped out the gates, and balanced up and ran the second fastest last 200m split of the race. I think rising to the 1600m suits him more than most in this field, he draws well (6) to not have to be miles back, and it should be a genuinely run race. Bayliss sticks, he is a progressive middle distance/stayer out of the Waterhouse yard. There is plenty to like. I am saving on UNTIL VALHALLA. She was very green on debut and flashed home over 1100m to narrowly miss, and she was excellent from the front when winning a 1400m maiden last start. She gets in light, Rachel King is in form, and she will be hard to run down.
RACE 8 #6 COAL CRUSHER – 1U WIN @$6/#9 EXCELLENT PROPOSAL – 0.25U WIN @$61
Main bet here is on COAL CRUSHER who draws perfectly (2) to jump, lead, dictate, and then hold them off late. He has been racing in the Elite company this preparation and was only beaten 1L to Bella Nipotina, Private Eye, and Think About it in the Giga Kick stakes over this trip last start. That form stacks up against the best sprinters in the world and his rivals aren’t close to that. The 1300m start at Newcastle suits him, the limited early speed engaged in the race suits him, and he generally holds his form into a preparation. The blinkers go back on which is a big positive and he will be very hard to run down. EXCELLENT PROPOSAL is crazy odds. I rated him a $18 chance so I have to speck him. He was luckless on resumption yet still managed to run the second fastest last 200m split of the race. His figures from Hong Kong have him measuring up to these. Just seems way too big in the current market.
RACE 9 #11 TAVI TIME – 1.75U WIN @$3.50
This is a horse I have always had plenty of time for and he finds a very suitable BM78 here with his main dangers coming out of the Four Pillars race which is essentially just a good country race. He arguably should have won fresh over 1400m on the Kensington track when never getting a look at them in the straight and I think this race is no harder than that. His form from last preparation when beating Queenmaker over 1550m and then running a narrow second to Red Top in a race that went 4L faster than standard simply wins this. Dylan Gibbons jumps off Oakfield Waratah ($7) to ride this bloke which is another good push. I think he will be too good for them rising to the mile and better races await.
SUNSHINE COAST
The Sunshine Coast hosts Queensland’s main meeting on Saturday with the Mooloolaba Cup being the feature. The Swiss Ace Plate also takes place with the likes of Prince of Boom and Ef Troop resuming. I love the 1400m and 1600m starts at this track and we will be betting into those races.
RACE 7 #3 NATIONAL CHOICE – 1.25U WIN @$4.80
I think the two favourites rate clearly better than the rest but I am happy to be with the second elect. This horse hasn’t had the races run to suit in his two runs this preparation with them being slowly run and I expect a more genuine tempo here with a few of the speed influences drawn wide. They walked over 1350m at Doomben last start and he managed to sit near the speed and narrowly missed the in form Preach whilst running the fastest final 400m and 200m splits of the race. From the rails draw (1) he can settle just off the speed, he has won at Sunshine Coast before, and I get the feeling the favourite will be paddling over the last 100m. He will get the last crack with even luck and run over the top of them.
RACE 8 #4 KNIGHT’S CHOICE – 1.75U WIN @$3.50
It is a two horse race here but if this horse has some luck in running, he should be winning. He raced against some of the best milers in the country last start in the Golden Eagle and I would be forgiving of that considering nothing really ran on due to the slow tempo of the race. In his start before that he was fifth in the Filante Handicap behind Unspoken (subsequent Five Diamonds winner) when recording the third fastest final 200m split of the race. He is three from four at the Sunshine Coast, and this is a very big drop in grade. He is well weighted and only needs even luck to be winning. His ratings say he wins this by 2-3L.
That will do us this week for the best bets preview! Any other bets will be up on my socials which are attached at the top of the screen. I may be playing in a few other races depending on the track biases!
GAMBLE RESPONSIBLY. CHANCES ARE YOU ARE ABOUT TO LOSE. SET A DEPOSIT LIMIT.