Another Melbourne Cup arrives and it is arguably the most popular day on the Australian racing calendar. We have seen terrific finishes in the three majors to date in the Caulfield Cup, Cox Plate, and Victoria Derby and hopefully we see another one here. Irish raider Vauban is a $4 favourite with last years winner Gold Trip and Caulfield Cup winner Without a Fight on the next line of betting. The supporting cast is headed by the two Group Three races over 1400m in the Desirable Stakes and Hong Kong Jockey Club Stakes. Let’s get into it!
RACE 1: MARIBYRNONG PLATE, GROUP THREE, 2-Y-O, 1000M
We kick off with a race for the juveniles. ADMITTED (1) led when winning on debut at Bendigo and will push forward again. BLUE STRATUM (4) is a speedy type who will be close to the lead. ODINSON (7) and CATOGGIO (5) won’t be far away in the run and have shown speed, whilst DUBLIN DOWN (2) probably gets a beautiful run.
BLUE STRATUM ($2.80) looks like a good bet to kick off Cup day. He was good in his first jump out at Donald over 850m but it was the most recent one at Terang which put his name up in lights. He ran 46.2 over 800m and for the last 100m was basically under a stranglehold. The third horse out of that jump out ran in the Inglis Banner at the Valley and ran fourth in a stronger race than this one. I think he dual leads with the second elect but he will simply be too fast for them. Damian Lane and the McEvoy’s strike at 24% which also inspires confidence. They aren’t mucking around here.
ODINSON ($4.40) hasn’t really been unleashed in any of his jump outs and must be considered. He has been a slight drifter in early betting but the Shinn/Maher and Eustace combination is a lethal one. He can get a nice run just off the speed and power home late. We haven’t seen what is under the bonnet.
ADMITTED ($4) has the race experience but geez I thought he was skinny at $4 based off raw figures and ratings. They put a big gap on the third horse at Bendigo but considering the tempo it was nearly impossible to run on. Doubt he gets that here. I am happy to be opposing him at the current price.
DUBLIN DOWN ($13) was only 1.5L behind Admitted so the price differential seems steep. In both career starts he has ran on off slow tempos. They might go quicker here which will give him his chance to run on strongly late.
TIP: The favorite is a good Colt. 1.75U WIN #4 BLUE STRATUM @$2.80.
RACE 2: MELBOURNE CUP DAY PLATE, LISTED RACE, HANDICAP, 1800M
Another small but competitive field here. The speed looks minimal. SIBAAQ (3) will slide across and is the likely leader. RIVERINA CYCLONE (8) will also push forward. POUNDING (1) has the ability to settle closer from the rails draw (1). The rest of the field will settle around midfield. I don’t think there will be much of a gap between first and last. They will go slowly and be compact.
LORD VLADIVOSTOK ($4.50) is primed for this race and he will be hard to beat. He is basically facing rivals either who are using this race as an afterthought or resuming stayers. He was brilliant from a mile back in the Murray Bridge Cup two-back over the mile, was then rested for a month and resumed a luckless runner in the Damien Oliver at G2 level on Saturday over 1400m. He did the three day back up last year and was a luckless third behind Just Folk in this same race. He gets Damian Lane on and this has clearly been a target race. His record might not show it but he likes Flemington and I think he will be hard to beat.
SIBAAQ ($5) is the likely leader and has been in very consistent form of late. He has been beaten by Forgot You ($3.60 here) in his last two starts but his Flemington run three-back over 1700m was the best run of this preparation. He will be able to dictate the speed which means he should be able to provide a good kick.
FORGOT YOU ($3.60) will be running on strongly. He had excuses two-back when pulling up with EIPH in the Caulfield Cup before going to the JRA Cup when he ran the seventh fastest final 200m split of the meeting. That proved he is going well as he had no right to finish off that well. Chance.
POUNDING ($4) has a definite class edge on this field but this is an afterthought after two gut busters. He got caught wide and without cover in the Epsom before failing in a high rating Toorak Handicap. 1800m now after all of that isn’t a recipe for success.
TIP: Keen on the South Australian. 1U WIN #6 LORD VLADIVOSTOK @$4.50.
RACE 3: BATMAN STAKES, LISTED RACE, 3-Y-O, 1800M
I think they will go at a moderate tempo here which should ensure most horses get their chance. BIG SWAN (5) and NATURAL DEDUCTION (4) will use their good gates to sit up on the speed. BOGA LEGEND (9) and SAVATOFF (6) will also kick up. The big question is surrounding AZTEC STATE (1) from the car park. Does Zahra lead at all costs? Or does he drag back? If you get that prediction right you go a long way to backing the winner.
QUEEN OF DRAGONS ($5) should be closer to the favourite in the market. She was a brilliant maiden winner three-back on the Kensington track before going up in grade to Group races. She was completely outclassed by the likes of Arctic Glamour two-back but was then very unlucky in the Callander Presnell over a mile at G2 level when she never got a look at them in the straight and still only finished 2L away. 1800m will suit, she gains Craig Williams who rode her to a second to Militarize, and she will be flashing home late. If they go quicker than expected I think she will win.
AZTEC STATE ($2.40) was a good winner on debut over Roll on High who I think is a very talented horse. That race rated very well and the winner subsequently won well prior to that. He then went to a BM70 at Caulfield over a mile and was unlucky not to have been in the finish behind Ersa who subsequently ran 2L off Kaizad on Saturday in the Carbine Club. He has to overcome a tricky draw but Flemington and 1800m seems like an ideal set up for this horse. He is a talent, just too short.
BINOTTO ($14) ran on nicely two-back behind Gates at Sandown before being luckless at the Valley behind Konasana over 1600m. 1800m suits, he will camp midfield in a good spot and he gets Damien Oliver on board. He can run well.
NATURAL DEDUCTION ($14) is the designated leader and it has been advantageous to be there so far this Carnival. He is a horse that could really bounce out of that run and measure up in better grade like this.
TIP: Happy to be with the second elect. 0.75U #10 QUEEN OF DRAGONS @$5.
RACE 4: 3-Y-O PLATE, 1000M
Intriguing race awaits us here. The speed will be strong and the tempo incredibly quick with all of PERILOUS FIGHTER (6), CAPITALISATION (9), REVALENE (8) camping right on the pace. JEWEL BAY (4) and HOLY RACKET (7) won’t be far away. The favourites will settle back and try and run over them late.
REVALENE ($5) is a talented horse and I think he should be close to favourite here. He was strong on debut when being nudged out by a very talented horse in Excess at Cranbourne and he went to the Valley and had no luck last start when 1.25L off Celui. The form around that horse is incredibly good and I think he should only improve at his third career start. He draws in the best part of the track (10) and I wouldn’t mind betting that the second elect is near the end of his preparation. I think he is a huge chance.
PERILOUS FIGHTER ($32) is way too big in the market. His two wins in lesser grade at Pakenham and Moe rated well and he was tough on the speed in the Gothic Stakes against the pattern of the race. He will look the winner at some stage and I would much rather be on speed down the straight currently than sitting off them.
HOLY RACKET ($20) was impressive winning a BM58 at Pakenham two-back and then was the other luckless runner in the race that Revalene ($5 here) competed in last start. He should have finished closer; he strikes me as a horse who will love the straight and the price differential between those runners looks strange to me. If you like Revalene you must have something on this bloke. Should be nearly single figures.
BARBER ($2.80) is a false favourite. I thought his run in the Heritage was solid but his last start effort was very plain. He brings in the Ozzmosis form that makes him favourite, but he generally does his best racing fresh and second-up. Figures suggest he isn’t going to fire third-up. I am happy to oppose him.
TIP: Three overlays here. 1.25U WIN #8 REVALENE @$5/0.4U WIN #7 HOLY RACKET @$20/0.35U WIN #6 PERILOUS FIGHTER @$32
RACE 5: THE MACCA’S RUN, 2800M
My advice is not to be into this race. I am not previewing it as I think it is a dead set trap race for punters. The Bookies have loved this race in recent years and nothing will change here. On to the next!
RACE 6: GREYS BENCHMARK 90, HANDICAP, 1400M
Who doesn’t love this race? I think they will run it slowly here. GLINT OF SILVER (2) is the designated leader and should get a cosy lead. LOVE TAP (1) and BALTIC COAST (6) can try and push forward. KOOLED (8), FROST YOURSELF (10), PAPERBOY (7) won’t want to be too far away.
GLINT OF SILVER ($5) is the map horse of the day. In a race with absolutely no speed engaged in it he gets Zac Purton who is a brilliant front running rider. He draws the rails (1), he will bounce out, and he will lead them up which is always advantageous. There was excuses last start when he led at a frantic tempo in the Cameron Handicap over 1500m and his run three-back when 1.5L off the likes of Pericles and Madame Pommery would simply win this. He will take some catching and is a brilliant bet.
FROST YOURSELF ($18) can bounce out of that first-up run in a sit/sprint over 1200m when he finished third to River Noire at Kyneton. He runs very well second-up winning two from three and he drops 8kgs from that first-up run. Jamie Kah is a massive upgrade on Robbie Downey now that she is back in form and the stable, historically, have ran well on this day. I thought he would be about $9 so I’m happy to be with him.
PLATINUM WOLF ($7) was good in a slowly run race when going down 2L by Prince Jofra ($8 here). He will be ready to peak here third-up and gets in light with the 53kgs.
BERKSHIRE BREEZE ($6) is the unknown import. I don’t think he will have the speed to sprint quickly which I think will happen here but it is probably best to watch the market. If they smash him, it will tell you plenty.
TIP: Two bets. 1U WIN #2 GLINT OF SILVER @$5/0.5U WIN #10 FROST YOURSELF @$18.
RACE 7: LEXUS MELBOURNE CUP, GROUP ONE, HANDICAP, 3200M
It is always hard to predict the map in the Cup but we will give it a crack. I think they will go at a quicker tempo than expected. SERPENTINE (18) and MAGICAL LAGOON (16) will use their good gates to kick up and sit near the speed/lead. FUTURE HISTORY (21) will try and find a spot just off those leaders and questions surround what the likes of LASTOTCHKA (15), VOW AND DECLARE (9), CLEVELAND (10) will do from wider gates. If they all decide to push forward, the pace will be strong. VAUBAN (5) will also kick up.
VAUBAN ($4.60) is a deserving favourite and should be a touch shorter. He was simply breathtaking two-back when winning over 2800m by 7.5L and beating the subsequent Ebor winner in Absurde ($15 here). He then backed that up by winning the G3 Ballyroan Stakes over 2400m when beating Valiant King by 1.5L. That horse subsequently ran in the Caulfield Cup and was 5L off Without a Fight. He will be incredibly strong at the end of 3200m, he maps to get a nice run, and I think the European form always is the A1 form reference for our staying features. He gets Ryan Moore and I think he is just the best horse in the race. He will be hard to beat.
GOLD TRIP ($6.50) is the best local chance and should be a clear second favourite. He carried the big weight well in the Caulfield Cup when 2L off without a fight and he was excellent at the Valley off a strong speed when running the second fastest last 600m of the race. He is rock-hard fit; he absolutely loves Flemington and we know he runs out the trip after winning last year. He will need luck from back in the ruck on the rails but James McDonald is the man to make magic happen.
FUTURE HISTORY ($26) is the blowout chance. He is airborne at the moment and his last two runs at 2500m have been very good. Two-back he was rated perfectly by Craig Williams to win the Bart Cummings over First Immortal and he then went to the Moonee Valley Cup when he was wide, and then had to sustain a long run (off an already hot speed) and was terrific to go down by 0.8L to Cleveland. He drops down to 50kgs, gets Hollie Doyle on, and should be ready to produce a career peak. Brilliant E/W play!
VIRTUOUS CIRCLE ($151) goes into everything at cricket score odds. He does all his best racing at Flemington and with the light weight and good gate (6) I think Craig Newitt will be positive out of the gates. He should have run top three in the Bart Cummings when he was completely luckless and if he had have, he would be half his quote at least. He has been wanting this trip his whole career and he gets it here for a trainer who is brilliant at getting stayers to their grand finals. He will finish top six.
TIP: Two bets again! 1.25U WIN #5 VAUBAN @$4.60/0.5U WIN #21 FUTURE HISTORY @$26/0.25U WIN #19 VIRTUOUS CIRCLE @$201.
RACE 8: DESIRABLE STAKES, LISTED RACE, 3-Y-O, FILLIES, 1400M
I think they will go at an even tempo but that is about it. AZULA (1) will use the rails draw to kick up and camp on the speed. FACILE (4) can be more positive from a middle draw with limited speed engaged. APRILIA (6) and JOLIESTAR (10) will push across from wide gates and COMMEMORATIVE (13) has the chance to kick up from a low draw and be more handy than last start.
FACILE ($8) looks a good E/W bet. She was very impressive on resumption when leading a hot speed and still kicking away to run the second fastest last 200m split of the race. She then come down to Caulfield, looked gone at the 300m mark, and then kept coming to finish a neck away from Arkansaw Kid who subsequently ran fourth in the Coolmore on Saturday. She gets a nice run, 1400m seems ideal now, and Timmy Clark is in terrific form on these types of horses. She will be hard to catch.
RIGHT TO PARTY ($20) is one I have stuck with all preparation and I am not about to jump off now. She had excuses when pulling up with cardiac arrythmia two-back but her runs either side of that have been good. She ran the fastest last 600m sectional of the meeting on Cox Plate day over 1200m when third to Gumdrops and she has proven she doesn’t always have to go back. She has drawn very wide in both runs this prep which is why she has been snagged back. Beau Mertens is in form, 1400m yes, can run a big race!
COMMEMORATIVE ($3.30) absolutely dominated them on debut at Canterbury when winning by 4L and she was immediately tipped out. She returned in a very strong BM78 and just missed when diving at Kazou over 1200m. James McDonald is a big tick, she draws nicely (3) and she only needs luck to be in the finish.
ROLL ON HIGH ($12) is a very talented horse but she is going to need to be good to be winning from the gate (17). She will need plenty of luck but if she gets it, she probably wins. The map is just too bad to be backing her.
TIP: Two bet play on the value. 0.75U WIN #4 FACILE @$8/0.5U WIN #11 RIGHT TO PARTY @$21.
HKJC STAKES, MARES, 1400M
I think they will go at an even tempo. SKEW WIFF (2) and FINEPOINT (11) will try and push across to sit on the speed whilst LA DANSEUSE ROUGE (8) will kick up and sit handy. REVOLUTIONARY MISS (3) has the ability to kick up and settle closer. BELLE ET RICHE (10) has a decision to make on whether to go forward or back.
LA DANSEUSE ROUGE ($5.50) stretches out to 1400m for the first time but her last run makes it hard not to try her at the trip considering she flashed home late over 1200m. This is a weak race, Damian Lane jumps on, and I think she will get the run of the race. Good horse. Can win.
WOLLOMBI ($12) ran the fastest last 200m of the race in the Tristarc Stakes and she loves Flemington – winning here at G3 level. She need luck from the gate but she can be running on strongly.
REVOLUTIONARY MISS ($10) has the ability to take up a better position here and she can run well. She goes well third-up winning two from three. One of those was at this track in the Kewney Stakes when she beat Nunthorpe. She can run well and she will love getting back to Flemington.
BELLE ET RICHE ($13) was luckless late in the G2 Rose of Kingston Stakes and she loves Flemington. The gate is an issue (19) but there isn’t too much speed engaged so I wouldn’t be shocked if they took her forward. If they do that and then stack them up, she can win.
TIP: Watch the market and react late. Leaning to #3 Revolutionary Miss for Mark Zahra.
RACE 10: BENCHMARK 90, HANDICAP, 1400M
There might be a touch of speed early but I think they will slacken throughout here. RISE OF THE MASSES (8) will push across and settle on the speed/potentially lead. IMPERIAL LAD (4) will push forward, as will DUBAI POET (7) and BERMADEZ (6). A few of those in the market will settle a long way back which include CHORLTON LANE (16) and ROBUSTO (14).
DUBAI POET ($11) is one of the better bets around the nation at double figures. He had excuses fresh when on the inferior ground behind Amenable (subsequently fourth in the Toorak) before going back to Sandown and smacking them when winning arrogantly over Lafargue who is a similar price ($10). He was luckless last start when he looked like he was moving into the race nicely behind Rheinberg and he only finished 2L off them. Tie that form in with Chorlton Lane ($4 here) who ran a neck away from Rheinberg and I think this horse is well over the odds. He gets the map advantage over most runners, Damian Lane sticks, and he should be close to favourite. Big overs here.
CHORLTON LANE ($4) is a danger and can win. I love the form out of that Rheinberg race a couple of starts back and he was solid behind a good horse in Vienna Princess in Sydney last start. I hate the map and the gate (10). Craig Williams will have to be at his best but he does get in light.
ROBUSTO ($7.50) worked home nicely on resumption and can run well if he gets the breaks.
RISE OF THE MASSES ($8) likely leads on a moderate tempo which gives it a chance. Waterhouse and Bott front runners have been the trend of the carnival so far!
TIP: Pretty keen here. 1U EACH WAY #7 DUBAI POET @$11/$3.
STAKING PLAN:
RACE 1 – 1.75U WIN #4 BLUE STRATUM @$2.80
RACE 2 – 1U WIN #6 LORD VLADIVOSTOK @$4.50
RACE 3 – 0.75U WIN #10 QUEEN OF DRAGONS @$5
RACE 4 – 1.25U WIN #8 REVALENE @$5/0.4U WIN #7 HOLY RACKET @$20/0.35U WIN #6 PERILOUS FIGHTER @$32
RACE 6 – 1U WIN #1 GLINT OF SILVER @$5/0.5U WIN #10 FROST YOURSELF @$18
RACE 7 – 1.25U WIN #5 VAUBAN @$4.60/0.5U WIN #21 FUTURE HISTORY @$26/0.25U WIN #19 VIRTUOUS CIRCLE @$201.
RACE 8 – 0.75U WIN #4 FACILE @$8/0.5U WIN #11 RIGHT TO PARTY @$21
RACE 9 – TBC
RACE 10 – 1U EACH WAY #7 DUBAI POET @$11/$3
TOTAL OUTLAY = 12.25U
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