The final day of the Flemington Carnival awaits and they have saved the best until last with three ridiculously good G1 races on the program. The Champions sprint is the first of them with superstar New Zealand Mare Imperatriz taking on the likes of In Secret, Bella Nipotina, and Asfoora. The Champions Mile sees Mr Brightside, Fangirl, and Alligator Blood resume their rivalry in a field of seven, and the Champions Stakes sees Caulfield Cup runner up West Wind Blows take on Duais who was luckless in the Cox Plate and New Zealand Mare Prowess. The supporting card also features the time honoured Queen Elizabeth Stakes over 2600m and the Matriarch Stakes over 2000m. Let’s get cracking!
RACE 1: BENCHMARK 90, HANDICAP, 1600M
A slightly intriguing speed map here. TYPHOON HARMONY (8) is the designated leader and will be able to dictate the tempo. Outside of him there isn’t too much speed engaged. VON HAUKE (6) has the ability to hunt up and sit on the speed from a low draw (2). FARH FLUNG (5) was more positive last start and could repeat that here. JAPANESE EMPEROR (2) won’t want to be far away and SEQUESTERED (7) draws widest and Micky Dee will have to make a decision quickly on whether he wants to snag back or push forward. She is the fly in the ointment regarding the map.
VON HAUKE ($4.60) is a good bet here. I rated him as a $3.80 chance and every run this prep has been full of merit. He was strong on resumption when beating Helix at Sandown, before going to Flemington in a Listed race and running fifth and clocking the twelfth fastest final 200m split of the meeting in a leader dominated race. He then went to Geelong on their Cup day and copped an average steer from Jamie Kah. She got him caught wide early, and then went too hard in front (17L faster than standard to the 800m) over 1500m. He did a terrific job to finish only 1L off two very handy horses there and he has beaten the second and third horses by 3L and 5L. He gets in well at the weights, he maps well, and 1600m shouldn’t be a concern. He is a progressive horse with plenty of ability.
KIND GESTURE ($27) is worth having something on at a huge price. She didn’t have much luck in her first Australian preparation over 1400m distances and she has trialled well leading into this first-up run at 1600m. The fact that the Kent stable have put her over this trip first-up points to her being forward in condition and her figures overseas put her right in this race. Craig Williams is a tick and she can run top three with ease.
SEQUESTERED ($4.40) is down from NSW and has been beating up on weaker fields than this before being more positive and not finishing off last start over this trip. She needs to be ridden cold and she has shown she can sprint quickly off slow tempos. She should appreciate Flemington.
WATADEEL ($6) has been running good late splits in recent starts but does step up in grade here. 1600m will suit, and Jamie Kah is back in form. I think she will find one or two better but she is a chance.
TIP: Happy to bet in the first. 1.25U WIN #6 VON HAUKE @$4.60/0.35U WIN #10 KIND GESTURE @$27.
RACE 2: ALWAYS WELCOME STAKES, LISTED LEVEL, HANDICAP, 1200M
For a 1200m race down the straight there doesn’t seem to be much speed engaged outside of NAJEM SUHAIL (9) who will without doubt lead them up. PARISAL (5) will camp on the speed along with OUR LAST CASH (11) and potentially GENERAL BEAU (4) who can settle closer in the run. Outside of that I think the majority of the field will bunch up around midfield and try and run over the top late.
IT’SOURTIME ($6) goes on top in a race I am not particularly keen on betting in. Yes, he is very deep into his preparation now, but he seems to be holding his form well and if he can run up to the level, he did three-back at this T/D I think it is good enough to win this. He loves the straight, gets Blake Shinn on board and I think he will be hard to beat with the way the race shapes.
PARISAL ($3) is a deserving favourite but I thought she was skinny at $3 and should be closer to $5.50 the field. Her Sydney form has stacked up okay but in her one Melbourne run she was beaten 0.5L by Benedetta who our top selection ran 1.5L away from not long ago. I don’t think that equates to the price differential we see here, she is unproven down the straight, and she has been up for a long time for a lightly raced 4YO. There are too many negatives to be taking that price, even though I think she is the best horse in the race.
NAJEM SUHAIL ($9) will be able to go at a slower tempo out in front here which might give him what he needs to be able to run the race out strongly. His form stacks up well with Spacewalk/General Beau and I have no idea how General Beau is $8 and this bloke is $9. He will look the winner at some stage and give you a run for your money.
LOMBARDO ($11) is the blowout chance. He worked home nicely fresh behind a star in Asfoora and then went to the Valley and ran very good closing splits behind the likes of She Dances and Ranges. He could be ready to peak third-up and run a big number.
TIP: Leaving this race alone. You will be paid well if you find the winner but I have no clear angle or value here.
RACE 3: SPRINGTIME STAKES, LISTED LEVEL, 3-Y-O, 1400M
There is some very progressive types engaged here but it isn’t the easiest race to map. Off everything we have seen so far DON’T HOPE DO (2) and EUGENIUS (13) will try and cross them and camp on the speed. PANTELONE (3) draws tricky and might be ridden more positively. SCHWARZ (6) will kick up from the inside providing he jumps well. The rest of the field will settle around midfield. With such a big field usually there is a strong tempo but there just doesn’t look to be much speed on paper.
SCHWARZ ($3) will start shorter than the current odds and looks to be one of the better bets on the program. He was a dominant maiden winner at Gosford over 1200m on debut when a $1.30 favourite and the O’Shea camp decided to go straight to G3 level and brought him down to the Valley over their carnival. He was a drifter in betting on that occasion and he no luck when being held up at a crucial time when swinging around the bend. I think he crabbed around the corner at the Valley but once James McDonald straightened him up, he flashed home late to run the third fastest last 200m split of the meeting. His barrier manners are the only slight concern leading into this. If he jumps cleanly and camps behind the leaders, I don’t think they will beat him. That Red Anchor Stakes form looks A1 for this.
MISS ARIA ($21) is well over the odds and should be basically a single figure price. She just hasn’t had much go her way as of late. Two-back she was travelling nicely when being held up for the majority of the straight over 1400m at Sandown when 1.75L off Carina Queen (1L away from Skybird in the Fillies Classic subsequently). She then come back to 1200m at the Valley and ran the third fastest last 200m split of the meeting after being well back in the run. Back to 1400m suits, Flemington suits, and she should only need even luck from the gate (11) to be running very well.
PANTELONE ($6.50) was a good winner two-back at Mornington over 1200m when beating subsequent winner Prancing Spirit and he didn’t have much luck over 1300m at Geelong when finishing a neck away from Boldhino. A strong 1400m is a slight concern but Jamie Kah is back in form which is a big tick.
SNAPBACK ($8) brings down the Sydney form which has done well over the Flemington carnival. I think he will end up getting a nice run for Mark Zahra but carrying 60kgs with the Synthetic Hoof Filler going on for the first time isn’t ideal. One for the exotics.
TIP: Looks a good betting race. 1.7U WIN #6 SCHWARZ @$3/0.3U WIN #9 MISS ARIA @$21.
RACE 4: QUEEN ELIZABETH STAKES, GROUP THREE, 2600M
Intriguing race here and you can attack it from many angles. The map is straightforward. KNIGHTS ORDER (3) will lead them up and Tim Clark will be able to dictate the tempo. PESTO (14) has been more positive in recent starts and will have to go forward again. REGAL POWER (7), KUKERACHA (8), MURAMASA (9) won’t want to be too far away in the run either. The rest of the field probably settle midfield or worse. Watch for any tactic changes though as always.
SO DAZZLING ($11) is one of two horses with upside to come career wise and I am hoping she can produce a career peak here over the 2600m at Flemington. I thought she showed improvement over the last 200m of the G3 Angst Stakes over the unsuitable trip of 1600m when finishing off nicely and she then went from 1600m straight to 2500m in the Moonee Valley Cup and she was luckless. She got caught behind a wall of horses around the bend and once she got out, she flashed home running the clear quickest final 200m of the race and the fourteenth fastest of the meeting. Vow and Declare franked the form well in the Melbourne Cup and she should be much fitter this time. If they go at even a moderate tempo, I think she will be storming home late. Flemington seems like her track.
MURAMASA ($4.20) is the other with upside. He has come back a different horse this preparation and considering he is only at start ten, he should only improve. He beat Maktoob with ease who has franked that form subsequently and he was utterly dominant and should have won by further in the Coongy over 2000m when beating Diamil and Gregolimo. 2600m will only help this horse and I think Flemington will also suit. He is a deserving favourite but I think it should be essentially $6 the field here.
LADIES MAN ($21) was poor in his first Australian run over 2500m but there were excuses. The tempo was completely against him there, he pulled his head off throughout, and nothing really made ground bar one horse in the race. He probably wants a truly run 2600m which he might not get, but they will go quicker here than they did last week. He seems over the odds.
AMADE ($12) was excellent when winning the Geelong Cup and Ashrun franked that form when running a luckless fourth in the Melbourne Cup. He is consistent and I think if he gets the right run, he can win.
TIP: Opposing Duke De Sessa here. Way under the odds. Wait and see how the track is playing here and if any tactical moves occur and then we will see if there is a bet to be had.
RACE 5: MATRIARCH STAKES, GROUP TWO, MARES, 2000M
For the first time on the program I think the map for the entirety of the race is straight forward. DENY KNOWLEDGE (6) will cross and dictate whilst SOUL CHOICE (10) camps on her back. MUSTANG VALLEY (1) will push across from the wide gate and over the further trip PAPILLON CLUB (7) won’t be far away. PEARL OF ALSACE (8) and OSMOSE (13) will be in the next pair. The rest of the field will likely settle worse than midfield and I think the overall tempo will be about even for the Benchmark.
THALASSOPHILE ($7.50) has a brilliant platform to really produce a career peak here. She had no luck in the Angst Stakes at G3 level in Sydney when running into backsides for the majority of the straight before flashing home and running the second fastest last 200m of the race. She then went to the Valley, stuck at the mile, and ran home strongly to finish 1.25L off Wishlor Lass whilst recording the fastest last 400m of the race. The draw (13) isn’t ideal but she was probably going to get back anyway. She should be at peak fitness for this and you feel like it has been a target race all preparation from Chris Waller.
OSMOSE ($7) ran a neck away from Thalassophile in that 1600m race at the Valley and she draws better (1) and might get the run of the race camped behind the speed. She is giving her weight from that race and is unproven at 2000m, but the Waterhouse and Clark combination has been lethal this Spring and if there is a trainer that can stretch a horse out in trip, it is the first lady of racing. She can run a big race third-up.
DENY KNOWLEDGE ($5) is skinny in the current market but is a winning chance, especially if the track is biased towards the leaders. She went too hard two-back over 2000m at G1 level when running 7L off Alligator Blood and Duais and she was solid enough over the mile in the G1 Empire Rose when she had to cart the field up to eventual winner Pride of Jenni. She will lead, she gets Jamie Kah on, and she can dictate the race. There is plenty to like about her.
SHE’S A CON ($21) hasn’t fired recently in Australia but I am convinced she is a good horse and she is finally getting out to a trip now. She will be running on strongly and it wouldn’t shock if she won. Include her in all the multiples and exotics.
TIP: I am hoping they go quick enough here. 0.75U WIN #5 THALASSOPHILE @$7.50.
RACE 6: DARLEY CHAMPIONS SPRINT, GROUP ONE, 1200M
The biggest race of the Spring arrives (in my humble opinion anyway). The map is a relatively straight forward one. FRONT PAGE (1) will bound out and lead them up. STAR PATROL (4) and ASFOORA (10) will camp on his back and the likes of BELLA NIPOTINA (6), IMPERATRIZ (8), and IN SECRET (7) will settle on the back of them. The rest of the field is likely to be giving away a bit of a start to them.
IN SECRET ($5) is just too big of a price here. I rated her as a $2.90 chance and Imperatriz as a $2.30 chance and therefore I have to be with the Blue army. She hasn’t won this preparation but I think she is absolutely flying. She flashed home two-back in the Shorts over 1100m when 1L behind Private Eye and then she went to the Everest where she put in an incredible effort. She was snagged back from the wide gate (12), spotted the eventual winner in Think About It approximately 6-7L on the turn, and then ran the fastest last 600m, 400m, and 200m sectional of the meeting to finish 1L away after having to overcome interference early in the straight. She is two from two down the straight and both of them have been over 1200m in G1 races. I think she is the proven Flemington quantity and is over the odds.
IMPERATRIZ ($2) is the main danger and I am not knocking her at all. She has been in ridiculous form this preparation winning both the Moir and Manikato Stakes double and breaking the track record in two of her three starts. Her figures say she is the best sprinter in Australia but the one knock I have is that she is unproven down the straight and she has been racing inferior opposition compared to a horse like In Secret. The New Zealanders think she is going to dominate them and they may be right, but there is a big blue presence in this race and at $2 I can’t ignore it. She can definitely win, but I have her rated a bigger price than the current quote.
STAR PATROL ($15) has come back brilliantly beating King of Sparta fresh and then backing that up with a win over Triple Missile in the G2 Gilgai Stakes. 1200m yes, and he has probably some more upside to come, but the form around that last win isn’t stacking up. He loves the straight though and maps to get the run of the race.
ASFOORA ($9) is skinny in this market but is the other horse I put in the numbers. She was only beaten 1.25L by the New Zealander two-back and she has arguably improved off that after smacking them in the Schillaci by three lengths. Flemington is a slight query but she will get a nice run and could explode. Winners win, and she is a winner. You can’t help but feel this is different gravy though.
TIP: They will come for me if I’m wrong here. 1U WIN #7 IN SECRET @$5.
RACE 7: KENNEDY CHAMPIONS MILE, GROUP ONE, 1600M
Another brilliant race awaits us and the punters have it down to three chances. PRIDE OF JENNI (7) will roll along in front as per her usual pattern and dictate the tempo. ALLIGATOR BLOOD (2) will cross and sit in behind her. VICTORIA ROAD (5) and MR BRIGHTSIDE (1) will get the dream runs third and fourth and the likes of BANKERS CHOICE (4), THE INEVITABLE (3), and FANGIRL (7) will settle at the rear.
FANGIRL ($3) is a cracking bet here. The Waller mare absolutely smacked Mr Brightside two-back in the King Charles over this trip at Randwick when winning by 2.6L and she then come down for the Cox Plate and was luckless when running up backsides for the best part of the last 500m. She still ran a similar last 200m split to Mr Brightside with the interference and she was unlucky not to at least finish closer. She has seen Flemington once for a 3L win as a 3YO, the speed should be at least even with Pride of Jenni leading, and she will get a dry track. Dry track, solid tempo, Flemington says advantage Fangirl. I think she will round them up and put them away at the 200m mark.
MR BRIGHTSIDE ($2.80) is a marginal favourite. He is a superstar and is as consistent as they come, but I can’t get the image out of my head from the King Charles where Fangirl smacked him. He will get the run of the race (as he usually does considering his racing pattern) and there is no real knock on him bar Flemington where he has only won twice from seven starts, and the dry track that he will face. I think it is a two horse race and it will be brilliant to watch. Fangirl just gets the favours on Saturday.
ALLIGATOR BLOOD ($3.50) should be closer to $6. He sat up on the speed in a fast run Cox Plate and his last 200m split pointed to a horse that was coming towards the end of a preparation. This is now his sixth start for the preparation and he has run over unsuitable trips of 2000m this campaign. He is a champion and an absolute war horse, but I don’t like the map and I think the other two have the class edge over him as has been proven already this Spring.
BANKERS CHOICE ($67) is a better horse than the Inevitable and therefore is slight overs. He was terrific over 2000m on this day last year and his run in the Toorak was a cracker. I don’t think he can win, but it wouldn’t shock to see him run third.
TIP: Keen here. 2U WIN #7 FANGIRL @$3. She will prove that she is the best miler in the country going forward on Saturday.
RACE 8: CHAMPIONS STAKES, GROUP ONE, 2000M
The final Group One of the Flemington carnival awaits. The speed map will be all important. ZAAKI (1) will work across and lead them up whilst WEST WIND BLOWS (4) kicks up and camps behind him. BUCKAROO (7) can settle closer here after jumping poorly in the King Charles, and PROWESS (11) won’t be far away either. DUAIS (9) and YOUNG WERTHER (3) will be in the next pack. The rest of the field will settle towards the rear.
DUAIS ($6.50) seems like a reasonable price here. She has been good this preparation without winning. If you disregard the run two-back (still ran third at G1 level) either run on the other side have that have been brilliant. She flashed home late in the Underwood over 1800m without much luck late to finish a length off Alligator Blood and she was luckless last start when bolting for a run for the last 400m in the Cox Plate without ever getting one. I think she was the major hard luck story and that she should have won with clear air. If she won, she would be $3 here. She gets a dry track, she gets to Flemington, and she doesn’t have to settle too far back in the run. She deserves a major and she might get one here.
BUCKAROO ($17) is over the odds here. His overseas form has him right in the finish here and I don’t think anything went right in the King Charles over the mile. He never got much of a look at them but I thought his last 200m showed that he is going well and the fact that Joseph O’Brien has kept him here after that run seems to point to the fact that he is going better than expected too. The blinkers go on for the first time, and these European imports usually love Flemington. Blake Shinn is also a big tick.
WEST WIND BLOWS ($3) is a touch skinny in the market. I concede he has the A1 form lines behind Without a Fight and Gold Trip from both the Turnbull and Caulfield Cup, but I also thought he got a tempo that suited him that day which he won’t get here. They aren’t going to go overly quickly and if it becomes a sit/sprint I would rather be with a few others. His barrier issues are also a concern jumping from a low draw (2). Gun horse, but there’s enough negatives to be against backing him.
PROWESS ($6.50) had plenty of improvement to come before her last start win over Antino and Tuvalu in the Crystal Mile at the Valley. She maps to get a good run here, Mark Zahra sticks, she should be better up to 2000m, and she can win without surprising.
TIP: Happy to bet around the favourite. 0.75U WIN #9 DUAIS @$6.50/0.5U WIN #7 BUCKAROO @$17.
RACE 9: GRAND HANDICAP, BENCHMARK 80, HANDICAP, 1100M
It is one of the toughest races to predict all carnival. The map says that GIVE GIGGLES (14), RIVER NOIRE (11), ZAC DE BOSS (1) will all want to lead/sit on the speed. FASUTO (6), ANILLA (2), MORNINGTON GLORY (13) will be in the next pack. PINK BEAU TY (16) and ALONG THE RIVER (8) won’t want to be too far away. The rest of the field will settle midfield or worse.
MORNINGTON GLORY ($8) is a small bet here in the last. He has always shown plenty of ability and since going to the Gavin Bedgood stable he has started to live up to the talent this time in. He ran on well with similar closing splits to Give Giggles who beat him first-up after close to a year out and he then went to a BM64 at Geelong when he smacked them by 2.5L. He maps to sit a touch better than midfield here and his only run down the straight was a 3L fifth in the Danehill Stakes. He will be strongest late and think he can run a big race.
BEWS ($8) was luckless three-back not to win over this T/D and he was very good at Seymour when missing the kick but still managing to flash home and win by a length over a BM70 field. He is racing well this time in, he appreciates the straight, and this is no harder than that race three-back. He can flash home and run a big race.
KIN ($4.50) has beat Dashing Legend first-up in the past and a replication would see her hard to beat here. The Cause for Concern form ties in with Bews and she ran 1.7L off that horse last preparation down the straight. I think she is slightly under the odds, but she handles the straight and generally fires fresh.
ANILLA ($15) is the blowout chance. He was terrific when beating them in South Australia last start and the win three-back over Boldhino looks good for a race like this. He will get a nice run and will probably be the strongest late considering he is a 1300m horse.
TIP: Tough conclusion. 0.5U WIN #13 MORNINGTON GLORY @$8.
STAKING PLAN:
RACE 1 – 1.25U WIN #6 VON HAUKE @$4.60/0.35U WIN #10 KIND GESTURE @$27
RACE 3 – 1.7U WIN #6 SCHWARZ @$3/0.3U WIN #9 MISS ARIA @$21
RACE 4 – TBC
RACE 5 – 0.75U WIN #5 THALASSOPHILE @$7.50
RACE 6 – 1U WIN #7 IN SECRET @$5
RACE 7 – 2U WIN #7 FANGIRL @$3
RACE 8 – 0.75U WIN #9 DUAIS @$6.50/0.5U WIN #7 BUCKAROO @$17
RACE 9 – 0.75U WIN #13 MORNINGTON GLORY @$8
TOTAL OUTLAY: 9.35U
GAMBLE RESPONSIBLY. CHANCES ARE YOU ARE ABOUT TO LOSE. SET A DEPOSIT LIMIT.