Well, it is racings day of days. It is Derby day at Flemington as we kick off the Melbourne Cup Carnival. We will be previewing every race of the four day carnival right here on the Mock Sports. The meeting is headlined by successive Group ones, starting with the Coolmore Stud Stakes where Millionaires are made, the 2500m classic the Victorian Derby, and the G1 Empire Rose Stakes for the Mares. The Archer Stakes also takes place where the winner earns a spot in the Melbourne Cup on Tuesday, and the Wakeful Stakes for the Fillies over 2000m will also give us a clearer picture on Thursday’s Victorian Oaks. Let’s get cracking!
RACE 1: CARBINE CLUB STAKES, GROUP THREE, 3-Y-O, 1600M
The map is intriguing and you can look at it a few different ways. The only sure thing I think is that KAIZAD (3) and JUST IN TIME (9) will slot in from wide gates and likely settle 1-2. It gets murky after that. ERSA (7) draws the rails. How positive will Johnny Allen be? CRITIQUE (4) gets the blinkers off but draws widest. BRAVE MEAD (1) and INFLUENTIAL (5) both draw to get lovely runs around midfield.
BRAVE MEAD ($3) saluted for us last start at Caulfield over 1400m and there is no reason to jump off him now. He copped some bad luck in his first two runs this time in but he got his revenge when he ran over the top of The Instructor and Kaizad at Caulfield last start. He was strong through the line on that occasion running the twelfth fastest last 200m of the meeting off an even tempo. He draws to get a lovely run, the mile shouldn’t be an issue, and Flemington is generally fair to all horses. The slight knock is going from Mark Zahra to Jamie Spencer but I think that is why we are getting a better price. There is a bit more depth to this field but his ratings suggest he is better than his rivals.
ERSA ($11) is the saver. I am convinced she is a good horse. The form out of her maiden run three-back when she was luckless over 1300m looks terrific now considering Grinzinger Belle was beaten a neck in a G2 last week and Roll on High has subsequently won a maiden. She dominated them in a maiden at Ballarat and then stepped up to the mile at Caulfield when she sat on a relatively strong speed and was nailed late by Mojave Desert. She will be better for the run at 1600m, she will appreciate Flemington, and she draws to do no work. She is over the odds and I can’t let her go around without me.
HEMAN ($3.80) is the one in the market I want to be against. He is going to settle near last and most likely be on the rail which is never a good place to be. The Tapp-Craig form is questionable and I just think others have more talent over 1600m. 2000m might be his go.
KAIZAD ($9) was solid last time but it is hard to see him turning the tables on the favourite.
TIP: Keen to bet here. 1.75U WIN #1 BRAVE MEAD @$3/0.5U WIN #7 ERSA @$11.
RACE 2: ARCHER STAKES, GROUP THREE, QUALITY, 2500M
The last spot in the Melbourne Cup is up for grabs here but it is a very small field. The map is always hard to predict in these races. GAN TEORAINN (6) will likely drift across and lead with the likes of UNITED NATIONS (5) and ATHABASCAN (3) kicking up to settle on the speed. MOSTLY CLOUDY (4) won’t be too far away in the run. The likes of LADIES MAN (1), SPEAK (7), KALAPOUR (2) will settle at the rear.
GAN TEORAINN ($16) is a big price considering our staying types are turn takers and I consider this to be an even bunch. We are getting the price because she only has the one win to her name after sixteen starts, but she has had plenty of excuses in Australia. The run two-back when caught 3WNC whilst sitting on a hot speed over 2000m had merit considering she only went down by a length and it was going to be hard for her after she jumped awkwardly and settled last at Randwick. She clearly ran the fastest last 200m split of the race there, she will sit on the speed here, and if it is a sit and sprint – she might have the best turn of foot. At the price I am happy to back her. This is harder but she will improve out to the 2500m.
ATHABASCAN ($2.60) is a deserving favourite but I think he is skinny at the current odds. The form around the Bart Cummings which he competed in two-back has been more than franked with Interpretation winning the Bendigo Cup and he probably should have won the Moonee Valley Cup but never saw daylight for the last 400m. Flemington suits, he gets McDonald on, and he draws to get a nice run. He ticks the boxes but I don’t think he is that much better than these and therefore I think he is under the odds based on raw ability.
MOSTLY CLOUDY ($6) finished ahead of Athabascan in the Bart Cummings and therefore has to be respected here. He dominated them at this track and trip two-back and will run well again. He should be much shorter than United Nations who is well under the odds.
LADIES MAN ($8.50) won the G1 Livamol Classic in New Zealand last start over 2000m and rises in trip here. Flemington suits, we know he gets the trip, and he excels on dry ground. Include him in everything.
TIP: Happy to speck the value here. 0.5U WIN #6 GAN TEORAINN @$16.
RACE 3: BEGONIA BELLE STAKES, GROUP THREE, MARES, 1100M
Most horses in this race are going to want to be in a forward position which means the tempo should be fast. RED CARD (4), HYPOTHETICAL (8), QUEEN OF THE BALL (1), STARLIGHT SCOPE (9), SOUTH OF HOUSTON (12) are all going to either try and lead or sit right on the speed and the two favourites in ROSE QUARTZ (6) and DANCING ALONE (10) will try and camp right behind them. The rest of the field will settle midfield or worse.
ROSE QUARTZ ($4.80) failed in this race last year but I feel like she can get some redemption here. Her first-up run was very good when runner up to Viviane. The form has been franked out of that race with Ashford Street winning last week. She then went up to 1200m at Caulfield and beat them all bar a talented type in She Dances after being posted wide in the run. She gets back to 1100m down the straight which she likes, she is third-up and should be near peak fitness. She is a deserving favourite.
DANCING ALONE ($4.80) is the logical danger. She should probably be undefeated from seven starts and therefore must be respected. The Heys camp have gradually took her through the grades and her last start win at this track and trip rated particularly well. She maps to get the run of the race and she should be in the finish with any improvement.
LEMPICKA ($15) is the blowout chance. She has won three from three and you must respect a mare in form. Considering the race shape she had no right to win from near last at Caulfield over this trip and I essentially want to pen anything that was on the speed in that race. She should appreciate a genuine tempo and if she handles the straight, she will be flashing home late.
WILLINGA BEAST ($15) clocked very good late splits considering she was held up for the last 100m of the race. I think that is a good platform for her to bounce out of and realistically this field is a very limited one. Her best figures measure up and I think she is ready to run to her peak here.
TIP: I am staying out of this one. I think it is a poor race without many progressive horses competing in it.
RACE 4: RISING FAST STAKES, GROUP THREE, HANDICAP, 1200M
I think they will run this at an even tempo. NAJEM SUHAIL (10) is the designated leader and he should get a relatively easy lead. CHAIN OF LIGHTNING (2) will push forward and after last start SPACEWALK (7) might settle closer to the speed. GENERAL BEAU (8) and GARZA BLANCA (12) won’t want to be too far away in the run. The rest of the field will bunch up around midfield and watch it unfold.
TRIPLE MISSILE ($4) will be spotting them a start but he has a lethal turn of foot and I think that might see him run over the top of them. He clocked very fast closing splits on resumption in the Gilgai behind Star Patrol and Jamie Kah gave him an easy time throughout that run. He generally does his best racing second-up (won at 1400m at this track at BM100 level and finished 0.5L off Argentia at G3 level) and I think this is a drop in grade compared to the standard of that race. James McDonald jumps on to replace Kah which is a huge positive and if he is within striking distance at the 350m mark, he will win.
CHAIN OF LIGHTNING ($8) was strong late in the Schillaci Stakes at Caulfield over 1100m when third to Asfoora and Uncommon James and she races well down the straight. Her best figures have her right in the finish here and she maps to settle just behind the leader which is generally the best place to be in these straight races. Watch the market with her. I think she could be the one they back late.
IT’SOURTIME ($11) is the double figure chance. He finished off strongly to finish 1.7L away from Star Patrol down the straight two-back and that form ties in directly with the favourite here. He then went to Randwick and nothing really went right. He gets back down the straight, he draws wide, and he will get carried into the race nicely. He is over the odds.
SPACEWALK ($5) maps perfectly here to stalk the leader and then pounce late. His closing sectionals fresh at Warwick Farm were brilliant and he again closed nicely last start in the G2 Caulfield Sprint to finish a neck away from Doull. Is that the form line that wins this race? I have my doubts. I think he should be a touch bigger in the market but he isn’t without a winning chance.
TIP: Backing in the McDonald magic. 1U WIN #5 TRIPLE MISSILE @$4.
RACE 5: WAKEFUL STAKES, GROUP TWO, 3-Y-O, FILLIES, 2000M
I think they will run along at an even tempo but races like this can be hard to predict in terms of tempo. AMAZONIAN LASS (5) will cross and lead whilst the likes of KONASANA (3) and HARLOW MIST (4) kick up to sit just behind her. SENTIMENTAL FLAME (6), EASY TURN (14), DIAMONDS CHOICE (8) will be in the next pair. The rest of the field will settle midfield or worse and hope for a strong tempo.
SUBRISING ($21) finally gets out to 2000m and looks one of the better value plays on the program. She has been closing off nicely over the 1400m-1600m trips over her last few starts and was particularly good last start when running the third fastest last 200m split of the race when the race shape was completely against her. She gets out to 2000m at Flemington which looks like a sweet spot for her and she gets Jamie Spencer on to replace Robbie Downey which is a positive. She should be third favourite and is a great each way gamble. She might be worth specking in the Oaks as well.
ZARDOZI ($2.50) is a deserving favourite. She had no luck at Sandown over 1400m two-back in a strong form race and she bounced back at Flemington when winning with ease by 1.5L. She goes from 1600m-2000m fifth-up which is a good platform and she had a tick over trial in between runs. She has a brilliant 300m burst on her and there is every chance the race will be run to suit her. McDonald on. She will be hard to hold out. Will she get 2500m? I am not sure. That is an argument for another day.
KONASANA ($4.60) maps to get the run of the race and must be considered with the Waller polish. She looked like she was going to eat up further after finishing strongly over 1800m in the Oaks trial when a neck behind Harlow Mist ($6 here) but then failed to finish off over 2000m in the Ethereal last start. Was she just outclassed there or did she not run out a strong 2000m is what you have to decipher. I don’t really know myself. The question will be answered here.
BON MISTRESS ($26) is a horse I have plenty of time for. She done a lot wrong in the Ethereal last start but still managed to run on and beat half the field home. She will be better for the experience at 2000m and can be the roughie running on strongly. Include her in the exotics. She is a talent.
TIP: Playing the value here. 0.5U EACH WAY #7 SUBRISING @$21/$4.80.
RACE 6: COOLMORE STUD STAKES, GROUP ONE, 3-Y-O, 1200M
What a cracking race. There a million different form lines to work through but we will start with the map. OZMOSSIS (11) will try and lead here but will be joined by the likes of CELUI (15), MEXICO (12), and even CYLINDER (2) who will want to be up on the speed. KING’S GAMBIT (5), VEIGHT (4), SHINZO (1) will all try and tuck in just behind the speed. The rest of the field will settle around midfield.
STRETAN ANGEL ($10) put the writing on the wall in South Australia at the end of last preparation when winning by 2.8L over 1050m and she has been terrific this time in. On resumption she just got too far back in an on-speed dominated race to finish a neck away from Shesallshenanigans when recording brilliant closing splits and she broke through last start when settling closer and running over I am Unstoppable ($11 here) in the last 50m. The form out of the race is good, the tempo will be genuine, she draws perfectly out wide (17) and 1200m seems like her absolute sweet spot compared to others who either struggle to run it out or are better at 1400m-1600m. She should be close to favourite and represents value. Going from Lane to Stackhouse isn’t ideal but he is still a quality rider.
OZZMOSIS ($14) is the other horse I want to be with. Some might say 1200m will test him (which is a genuine concern) but I also thought he just raced flat second-up and I am prepared to forgive that run. After all, he only finished 1.7L away from King’s Gambit who is $8 here. The first-up win was utterly brilliant when settling outside the lead and then powering away to win by 1L. The form out of that race is good, he will probably lead them up which is advantageous down the straight, and the Baker yard go well here. If he runs out 1200m he will be hard to run down.
CYLINDER ($4.40) is a winning chance, but I have to oppose him at the odds. Yes, he has the Everest form which reads he was 1L away from Think about it, but he had a charmed run there and it was far from the strongest edition of the Everest that we have seen. I think this race is an afterthought and he only beat I am Unstoppable by 0.3L earlier this preparation. He should be closer to $7.
VEIGHT ($18) is the blowout hope. He won easy first-up over 1200m at Caulfield at G3 level when he wasn’t wound up, and then had excuses second-up before running a close second in the Caulfield Guineas last start. I feel like he will love the straight and he might get a really nice run just off the speed and in the best part of the track. He can sprint hard.
SCHEELITE ($51) is the real roughie to include in everything. He is proven down the straight and has been flashing home over 1400m. He can sprint back to 1200m and be filling a hole.
TIP: Playing the value. 0.75U WIN #18 STRETAN ANGEL @$10/0.5U WIN #11 OZZMOSIS @$14.
RACE 7: VICTORIA DERBY, GROUP ONE, 3-Y-O, 2500M
It is time for the time honoured classic. Derby’s and Oaks races are always hard to predict map wise but we will try our best. AIR ASSAULT (3) looks the likely leader for Benny Allen and I think he might try and string them out throughout the middle part of the race. VERDAD (2) will try and kick up and settle handy with SACRED EAGLE (11) and RIFF ROCKET (4). GOLD BULLION (7) and SUNSETS (5) draw wide and have decisions to make regarding trying to go forward or back. The rest of the field will settle midfield or worse.
APULIA ($4) is one I put on my social media as a bet at $17 a couple of weeks ago and I am happy with where I sit now. He was on the seven day back-up when overpowering Verdad at the Valley in the Vase over 2040m and he now has his third race in three weeks which should have him at peak fitness. I think he has a good mix of brilliance and stamina which makes for a good stayer and Mark Zahra sticks and might be in career best form. 2500m yes, Flemington yes, and I can’t see any of that field turning the tables on him.
RIFF ROCKET ($2.40) is a high quality horse. His win two-back was sensational over 1800m at Flemington when a 5.5L winner over Sunsets. He clocked the fastest last 400m and 200m split of the meeting on a G1 day which is basically unheard of for a 3YO. He then went up to 2000m in the Caulfield Classic and ran on strongly to go down by a neck to Sunsets. The race shape was completely against him there and he only needs to run a strong 2500m to be in the finish. You have to trust the stable.
AIR ASSAULT ($17) is the best roughie. He put a gap on them two-back at Morphettville over 1800m when beating Diamonds Choice and Sentimental Flame by 3.3L and he led and only faded late in the Moonee Valley Vase last week when finishing 3.5L away from Apulia in third. He will get the trip, he will lead, and that is always usually a betting proposition in these 3YO staying races. It is worth having something on him.
SACRED EAGLE ($121) should go into the exotics and be included in quaddies. He won with ease at Kyneton over 1860m two-back before running on okay behind Served Cold in the Geelong Classic over 2200m. He will get the trip, I trust the camp, and outside of the top couple there is no depth to this race. It wouldn’t surprise me greatly to see him in the finish at cricket score odds.
TIP: Happy with my futures play on APULIA. On race day, I’ll have 0.5U WIN #3 AIR ASSAULT @$17.
RACE 8: EMPIRE ROSE STAKES, GROUP ONE, FILLIES & MARES, 1600M
Yet another Group One awaits. This map seems easy (famous last words). DENY KNOWLEDGE (11) and PRIDE OF JENNI (10) will settle 1-2 and no other way than to run along quickly. WISHLOR LASS (14) and WROTE TO ARATAKI (9) will try and settle on the speed from awkward draws. ALCOHOL FREE (1) maps to get the run of the race. The rest of the field will settle around midfield or worse.
ATISHU ($6.50) ran well in this race last year when 2L away from Icebath and this edition is no harder and I actually think she is going better this time in. I am happy to forget the run in the King Charles and refer to the first two runs of her preparation when she worked home nicely behind Sunshine in Paris and then Espiona in the Golden Pendant. That form has been franked with that horse winning the invitation. She loves Flemington, she runs well at the mile, and she gets James McDonald on who piloted her to her win in the G2 Matriarch here last year. She will appreciate the genuine tempo and will take some holding out over the last 300m.
FOXY FRIDA ($31) is the value chance. She was just even fresh in the G2 Let’s Elope Stakes behind Amelia’s Jewel but she did improve significantly in the G3 Ladies Day Vase when running on strongly to finish just 2L away from Wishlor Lass ($10 here). She ran the fastest 200m split of the race there and she should only be ready to improve third-up where she has won two from five. She likes Flemington and at $31 she is just too big of a price considering she can press more forward and get a lovely run a few pairs back and one off the fence.
ALCOHOL FREE ($6.50) is racing well and can give a big shout here. She maps to get a peach of a run just behind the leaders here and her last start run when 0.6L away from Espiona and Ruthless Dame is good enough to see her in the finish here as well. She will appreciate Flemington and she should be able to run out the mile.
HOPE IN YOUR HEART ($7) had a myriad of excuses two-back in the Epsom and done incredibly well to finish within 2L of the winner. She never really got a look at them in the King Charles. She reaches this race at peak fitness and she is due a change of luck. She can figure here if the breaks go her way.
TIP: Happy to bet here. 1.25U WIN #4 ATISHU @$6.50/0.5U WIN #6 FOXY FRIDA @$31.
RACE 9: THE DAMIEN OLIVER, GROUP TWO, 1400M, HANDICAP
I am not siding with him but there’s a small part of me that wouldn’t mind seeing the GOAT win his own race. Aside from that, the map is intriguing. The tempo should be strong here. HERE TO SHOCK (10) and SAVANNAH CLOUD (11) will try to cross the field and settle 1-2. TAMERLANE (5) could make that difficult though by kicking up from the rails draw. AYRTON (4) will also try and slot in somewhere near the speed from a wide gate. The rest of the field will settle midfield or at the rear.
KALINO ($9) comes here off a freshen after a win at this T/D when beating Umgawa and Detonator Jack. The form out of that race is exceptional with Antino running second in the G1 Toorak Handicap and Detonator Jack running second in the Five Diamonds Prelude. In his start before that he gave away 7kgs to Devoted and ran on strongly to finish third. He gets in well at the weights, he should appreciate a genuine tempo, and I think the Flemington 1400m is his sweet spot. He will be running on strongly late.
CAUSE FOR CONCERN ($18) should be shorter than the current quote. Not a lot went right two-back in the G2 Gilgai Stakes when he ran on strongly after missing the kick slightly to run fourth and 3L behind Star Patrol and Triple Missile. He then went to Caulfield over 1400m and ran on strongly again running a clear fastest final 200m split to finish 1.6L away from Buffalo River. He gets in light carrying the 53kgs, he loves Flemington, and we know he appreciates a genuine tempo. He should be half the current quote. His form lines stack up here.
TAMERLANE ($4.40) had the favours when winning the Paris Lane at this T/D last start and might not have such an easy run in transit here. In saying that, he loses nothing getting McDonald on board, he has shown he can sit behind them and power home, and his trial in between runs was good. His racing pattern always makes him a decent betting proposition.
VILANA ($6) was only two lengths off the likes of I am Me and Bella Nipotina on resumption and that was just off one trial. He will take fitness out of that run, he maps to get a nice run around midfield, and he gets Oliver on in the Damien Oliver. He will be supported late.
TIP: Playing the value. 0.6U WIN #12 KALINO @$9/0.4U WIN #17 CAUSE TO CONCERN @$17.
STAKING PLAN:
RACE 1 – 1.75U WIN #1 BRAVE MEAD @$3/0.5U WIN #7 ERSA @$10
RACE 2 – 0.5U WIN #6 GAN TEOROAINN @$16
RACE 4 – 1U WIN #5 TRIPLE MISSILE @$4
RACE 5 – 0.5U EACH WAY #7 SUBRISING @$21/$4.80
RACE 6 – 0.75U WIN #18 STRETAN ANGEL @$10/0.5U WIN #11 OZZMOSIS @$14
RACE 7 – 0.5U WIN #3 AIR ASSAULT @$17
RACE 8 – 1.25U WIN #4 ATISHU @$6.50/0.5U WIN #6 FOXY FRIDA @$31
RACE 9 – 0.6U WIN #12 KALINO @$9/0.4U WIN #17 CAUSE TO CONCERN @$17
OUTLAY = 9.25U
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