It is the moment that all fight fans have been waiting for. UFC 296 is scheduled to take place this Sunday and we have one of the best cards assembled in the companies history to go along with it. The main event is headlined by Leon “Rocky” Edwards fighting Colby Covington for the UFC Welterweight Championship, and the other title fight on the card sees Brazilian Alexandre Pantoja fight American Brandon Royval for the Flyweight Championship. The likes of Tony Ferguson, Paddy Pimblett, Ian Garry, Stephen Thompson, and Shavkat Rakhmonov also fight on the card. We will be previewing the main Preliminary fights and also the main card. It’s Time!!
MAIN PRELIM FIGHTS:
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CODY GARBRANDT (13-5) VS BRIAN KELLEHER (24-14)
An intriguing fight awaits us here with two ageing fighters trying to make one last push towards a potential title run. They are both 1-2 and have been far from impressive over their last three fights. I think the main question in this fight is whether Kelleher has the power to worry Garbrandt (even though his chin wasn’t what it was). Kelleher has only eight knockouts to his name over his twenty-four career wins and he has been submitted in his last two fights which may make him wary of going to the ground. The other main question leading into the fight is whether Kelleher will try and take Garbrandt down. If Kelleher can take Garbrandt down and get on top of him, it will cause troubles for him, but Cody has worked hard on his takedown defence with it currently being at 78%. If he can keep the fight standing, I think he wins and looks to bigger and better things in 2024.
PREDICTION: I think Cody Garbrandt wins by KO/TKO in the second round. This should be an entertaining fight with both men loving to get in a brawl.
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JOSH EMMETT (18-4) VS BRYCE MITCHELL (16-2)
The sixth and tenth ranked featherweight fighters go at it here in what should be a slug fest whilst they are standing up. Neither of these fighters work behind a jab and most of the punches they throw are either counters or power punches which can hurt anyone. They both have losses to Ilia Topuria in their last few fights (Emmett by decision and Mitchell by submission) and have both lost to good fighters on either side of that in Edson Barboza and Yair Rodriguez. The main question to be asked is whether Mitchell can take Emmett down. If you believe he can, it is going to be a long night for Emmett as Mitchell is the naturally bigger man and he has brilliant submission offence with nine of his sixteen wins coming that way. Mitchell has an underrated counter punching game and I think that is going to keep him in good stead here. For Emmett, the equation is simple. Make it a proper boxing match and keep it in close and tight. If he can do that, he can control and then win the fight, if he doesn’t, it is hard to see an avenue to him winning considering he will lack the ability to control Mitchell on the ground.
PREDICTION: I think everything points to Bryce Mitchell winning. I’ll say by Unanimous decision.
MAIN CARD
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TONY FERGUSON (26-9-0) VS PADDY PIMBLETT (20-3)
This is a main card fight on the fighter profiles only. Pimblett is undefeated in four fights in the UFC but I think the judges got it horribly wrong in his fight against the unranked Jared Gordon in what was a relatively poor display. Tony Ferguson is now 39 and has lost his last three fights with the last one, a submission loss against Bobby Green, potentially signalling the end of his career. I think stylistically it is a solid match up because Pimblett doesn’t have much knockout power (or great striking at all for that matter) and is terrific at Jui Jitsu. Ferguson on the other hand has lost a bit of his chin and power/speed and can wrestle incredibly well (eight wins by submission) which should negate Pimblett’ s main weapon which is the ground game. I think Pimblett is very overrated as a fighter and I also think Ferguson is on his way out which should make it a tight contest. The trash talk will be off the chain in this one before, during, and after the fight.
PREDICTION: Don’t have a confident pick here. I will go with Pimblett via decision as he is the younger and improving fighter but it wouldn’t shock me to see Ferguson catch him with something.
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SHAVKAT RAKHMONOV (17-0) VS STEPHEN THOMPSON (17-6-1)
Rakhmonov is potentially the most complete and well rounded fighter in the Welterweight division and I think he will be fighting for the Championship before too long. He comes up against Stephen Thompson here who is a good but limited fighter. With his karate background, Thompson is very dangerous on the feet with essentially half his wins coming by the way of knockout, but his karate style is a double edged sword. The other side of the sword is that he has basically no ground game. It has improved in recent years but it is no where near what it needs to be to match it with a guy like Rakhmonov who has won nine of his seventeen fights by submission. This is proven that he has lost by decision against the likes of Belal Muhammad and Gilbert Burns by being wrestled for most of the fight. Rakhmonov isn’t a slouch when it comes to punching and his stand up game and he proved that against the seventh ranked welterweight Geoff Neal in his last fight. He has an underrated jab that he works behind and his kicks are very hard to read. I think Rakhmonov has literally every avenue you can think of to victory and Thomspon only has one which is to knock him out in an exchange, most likely with a kick. Thompson is a dangerous fighter regardless of who he fights, but I think it is a nightmare match up for him stylistically here and he is facing a future world champion who is beginning to reach the peak of his powers.
PREDICTION: I am very confident of a Rakhmonov win here. I am not sure how but for the point of a prediction I will say he will win by KO/TKO in the second round.
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ALEXANDRE PANTOJA (C) (26-5) VS BRANDON ROYVAL (15-6)
I don’t think this fight goes the distance and it promises to be an amazing fight. They have fought each other before and it went the way of Pantoja by submission in the second round after Royval had the better of the stand up exchanges in the first round and that will be the way to victory for both men again here. I think they are both very evenly matched as was proven in that first fight but the key to victory for the champion is to maintain his distance in the striking exchanges and then to try and take Royval down to the mat. Royval’s takedown defence is still only at 38% which is poor and I am not sure he has made the necessary adjustments to be confident in saying that he can stop Pantoja from taking the fight to the ground. Both Rogerio Bontorin and Matt Schnell had no problem taking him down and the difference here is that Pantoja is a different beast when he can actually go to work than those two fighters. For Royval, he needs to keep the fight standing and try and get into a fist fight with the champion. We have seen how dangerous he can be when he gets into boxing exchanges and his knee to the head Matheus Nicolau in his last fight proved that. He has terrific reach, both his hands and feet are very dangerous and if you allow him to stand up and fight you for too long, he will find a way to pick you off and finish the fight. I can see this fight going deep but not going to the judges. Both men will hurt each other badly.
PREDICTION: Pantoja has more avenues to victory and he will win in the later rounds of the fight.
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LEON EDWARDS (C) (21-3-0) VS COLBY COVINGTON (17-3)
The Main Event arrives and it is Leon Edwards and Colby Covington for the welterweight strap. Colby Covington has been out of the ring since March of 2022 when he beat bitter rival Jorge Masvidal by decision whilst Leon Edwards is coming off two wins against the division king in Kamara Usman to hold the title. Covington will undoubtedly try and take Edwards down early in this fight as it seems to be his main path to victory. His takedown percentage of 46% is up there with the best fighters in the UFC, although Edwards has improved his takedown defence and ground game to an extent to which he could match Kamaru Usman in most ground exchanges when he was on the bottom and Covington couldn’t really gain the ascendancy against Usman on the ground which seems like a good thing for the champion. One thing that Edwards has to be careful of is conceding the early couple of rounds like he did against Usman in both fights. Covington is quicker and better in his stand up game than Usman is and I don’t think he has any other choice but to be aggressive from the outset here. Edwards is calm and calculated but the last thing he needs to happen is for Covington to win the first couple of rounds by being the more aggressive fighter as it will open him up to takedowns later on in the fight. I think these two are more evenly matched than Edwards and Usman were stylistically and both men have plenty of ways they can win the fight which makes it hard to be confident on who wins. Covington needs to throw volume and mix in takedowns and Edwards needs to be a touch more aggressive whilst still trying to set up that big shot which he is so good at doing.
PREDICTION: I have no idea but I am leaning towards the way of the Champion Leon Edwards. I think he can stop Covington in the later rounds with a big shot just like he did to Kamaru Usman.